Tropical Cyclone Monitoring And Forecasting In Malaysia

Tropical CycloneMonitoring And Forecasting

In Malaysia

International Training Course on Tropical CycloneInternational Training Course on Tropical Cyclone5 – 16 December 2011, WMO RTC Nanjing, China5 – 16 December 2011, WMO RTC Nanjing, China

by:by:Mohd Khairudin ShaariMohd Khairudin Shaari

Malaysian Meteorological DepartmentMalaysian Meteorological Department

SCOPE

• Introduction: Malaysia• Malaysian Meteorological Department• General Climate of Malaysia• The Effect of Tropical Cyclone Towards

Malaysia Weather• Tropical Cyclone Monitoring And Forecasting

In Malaysia• MMD Early Warning System

INTRODUCTION: MALAYSIA

LOCATION OF MALAYSIA

Region: Southeast AsiaCoordinates: 2°30'N 112°30'E

Area: 329,847 km² Population: 27,730,000 people

MALAYSIAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

MALAYSIAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (MMD)

http://www.met.gov.my

MMD Main ServicesWeather Forecast

Seasonal and Long-Range Weather OutlookWeather Warning

Marine Meteorological ForecastAviation Meteorology

Meteorological ObservationsEarthquake & TsunamiWeather ModificationEnvironmental Studies

ClimateAgromet

Central Forecast Office Division

Central Forecast Office is responsible for weather monitoring Central Forecast Office is responsible for weather monitoring and issuing the sea condition, weather forecast and and issuing the sea condition, weather forecast and

warning to general public, mass media and private agencieswarning to general public, mass media and private agencies

GENERAL CLIMATE OF MALAYSIA

Nort-East Monsoon (Nov – Mac)

South West Monsoon

(June–August)

Inter-Monsoon

(Apr-Mei & Sep-Okt)

Monsson Flood

Haze

Flash Flood

Strong Winds andRough Seas

Tropical Cyclone (May – Nov)

Severe Weather in Malaysia

Three Types of Monsoon (based on the wind flow patterns) :

1. North East monsoon (Nov-March): steady easterly or northeasterly winds of 10 to 20 knots prevail surges of cold air from the north (cold surges) bring heavy rainfall to Malaysia Malaysia experience more rainfall (east coast states of Peninsular

Malaysia are mostly affected)

Mean Streamline for November (NE Monsoon)

850hPa

Mean Streamline for December (NE Monsoon)

850hPa

2. South West monsoon (May-Sept): the prevailing wind flow is generally southwesterly

and light, below 15 knots

• During the months of May to November, when TC frequently develop over the west Pacific and move westwards across the Philippines, southwesterly winds over the northwest coast of Sabah and Sarawak region may strengthen reaching 20 knots or more

– tail effect of TC over Malaysia (especially over Sabah)

Mean Streamline for July (SW Monsoon)

850hPa

Mean Streamline for August (SW Monsoon)

850hPa

Mean Streamline for April and October (Inter Monsoon)

850hPa

3. Inter monsoon (Apr & Oct): winds are generally light and variable the equatorial trough lies over Malaysia

THE EFFECT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARDS MALAYSIA

WEATHER

• During SW monsoon in Malaysia (May-Sept) or Northern Hemisphere Summer :– Western North Pacific is favorable for TC formation– The normal passage of TC is westwards across the

Philippines, recurring northeastwards as they approach the Asiatic land mass

– Malaysia may experience tail effect of TC• During NE monsoon (Nov-Mar) :

– TC formation in Western North Pacific is rare– Based on past records, Malaysia suffered direct strikes

from TC mainly during this period– In associated to Borneo Vortex embedded in the

equatorial trough– A vortex can develop to a TC

Tropical Cyclone Common Path Tropical Cyclone Common Path

Malaysia

Past Tropical Cyclone Events In Malaysia

Tropical Storm Greg (Dec 1996) Tropical Storm Hilda (Jan 1999) Typhoon Vamei (Dec 2001)

• Caused flooding and severe mudslides in Sabah• Leaved more than 4,000 people homeless• Destruction of coral reefs• Fatalities : 238 people• Damage : $52 million USD

Formed in the South China Sea as TD on Dec 21 Headed east-southeastward, strengthened into the final TS on the 24th

After reaching a peak of 45 knots winds it crossed the northern part of Borneo on the 25th. Continued east-southeastward until dissipation on the 27th, south of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Greg (Dec 1996)

Tropical Storm Hilda (Jan 1999)

• Caused flooding and landslides in Sabah• Fatalities : 6 people• Damage : $1.3 million USD

Stretched out from the northwest Borneo coast early on Jan 4 Developed into a TD and moved slowly to the north away from the Borneo coast, becoming TS Hilda early on Jan 6

Typhoon Vamei (Dec 2001)

• Brought flooding and landslides to eastern Malaysia• Fatalities : 5 people• Damage : $4.2 million USD

Developed on Dec 26 at 1.4°N in the South China Sea Strengthened quickly and made landfall along extreme southeastern Malaysia Rapidly dissipated over Sumatra on Dec 28, and the remnants eventually re-organized in the North Indian Ocean

TROPICAL CYCLONE MONITORING AND FORECASTING IN MALAYSIA

• TC monitoring and forecasting tools:

JMA Typhoon Track JTWC Typhoon Center NWP products (MMD-WRF, GFS and NOGAPS) Satellite image :

• MTSAT• FY-2E

Radar echo

Rangkaian Stesen Radar, Satelit, Udara Atas Dan Pencemaran Udara

Upper AirStation (8)

Principal Synop SurfaceObservation Station (22)

Upper Air and Synop Surface Observation Principal Station

Network

(Doppler)

Rangkaian Stesen Radar, Satelit, Udara Atas Dan Pencemaran Udara

Satellite Satation (1) Radar Station (12)

Satellite and

Radar Network

JTWC Typhoon Center

JMA Typhoon Track

FY-2E

EC Wind ChartWind chart (850 hPa) – useful to detect areas of strong winds over

Malaysia waters

JMA Wind Chart

MET Malaysia 6-Panel Wind Chart

MMD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

Data Collection and Analysis

Radar Observation

Surface Observation

Marine Observation

Upper AirObservation

Satellite Observation

Weather Forecast Centre

Public

WEATHER MONITORING, FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEM

Weather Camera

Warning Dissemination

Aircraft Observation

http://www.dlr.de/en/Portaldata/1/Resources/portal_news/NewsArchiv2006/Metop_A_380h.jpg

Dissemination of Sea Condition, Weather Forecast and Warning

WEB SITE : www.met.gov.my

SMS

MMD WEBSITE

MMD SMS INFORMATION SYSTEM

MASS MEDIA – TV , RADIO & NEWSPAPER

CRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGCRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

Warning Warning StageStage

CriteriaCriteria Possible ImpactPossible Impact

YellowYellow Possibility of a monsoonal surge in the next 24 to 48 hours.Possibility of a monsoonal surge in the next 24 to 48 hours.

OrangeOrange Moderate monsoon rain is currently occurring or expected to Moderate monsoon rain is currently occurring or expected to occur in the next 24 hours.occur in the next 24 hours.

Flooding over low-lying areas Flooding over low-lying areas and areas by river banks.and areas by river banks.

Low-pressure system/tropical depression with sustained wind Low-pressure system/tropical depression with sustained wind speed of 50 - 60 kmph accompanied by moderate to heavy rain.speed of 50 - 60 kmph accompanied by moderate to heavy rain.

Strong wind with sustained wind speed of 50-60 kmph (whole Strong wind with sustained wind speed of 50-60 kmph (whole tree in motion; inconvenience felt when walking against wind) tree in motion; inconvenience felt when walking against wind) with slight to moderate rain and has lasted for the last 2 hours.with slight to moderate rain and has lasted for the last 2 hours.

Thatched/zinc roofs can be Thatched/zinc roofs can be blown off by the wind.blown off by the wind.

RedRed Heavy widespread monsoon rain is currently occurring or Heavy widespread monsoon rain is currently occurring or expected to occur in the next few hours.expected to occur in the next few hours.

Tropical storm/typhoon with sustained wind speed of at least Tropical storm/typhoon with sustained wind speed of at least 60 kmph accompanied by moderate to heavy rain.60 kmph accompanied by moderate to heavy rain.

Flooding over low-lying areas Flooding over low-lying areas and areas by the river banks. and areas by the river banks.

Swift water currents can be Swift water currents can be dangerous to children playing dangerous to children playing besides monsoon drains and besides monsoon drains and river banks.river banks.

Strong wind with sustained wind speed of at least 60 kmph Strong wind with sustained wind speed of at least 60 kmph (breaks twigs off trees; generally impedes progress when walking (breaks twigs off trees; generally impedes progress when walking against wind; structure damage occurs) with moderate to heavy against wind; structure damage occurs) with moderate to heavy rain and has lasted for the last 2 hours.rain and has lasted for the last 2 hours.

Thatched/zinc roofs can be Thatched/zinc roofs can be blown off by the wind.blown off by the wind.

CRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE OF STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH CRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE OF STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WARNINGSEAS WARNING


CriteriaCriteria Possible Possible ImpactImpact

First First CategoryCategory

Strong wind with speed Strong wind with speed from 40-50 kmph and from 40-50 kmph and rough sea with wave rough sea with wave height up to 3.5 meter. height up to 3.5 meter.

Tropical Depression / Tropical Depression / Tropical Storm detected Tropical Storm detected over the high seas (more over the high seas (more than 400 km or 200 than 400 km or 200 nautical miles from the nautical miles from the coast bringing strong coast bringing strong winds and rough seas as winds and rough seas as described above).described above).

Dangerous to small Dangerous to small crafts.crafts.

Dangerous to Dangerous to recreational sea recreational sea activities and sea activities and sea sports.sports.




Second Second CategoryCategory

Strong wind with speed Strong wind with speed from 50-60 kmph and from 50-60 kmph and rough sea with wave rough sea with wave height up to 4.5 meter. height up to 4.5 meter.

Tropical Depression / Tropical Depression / Tropical Storm detected Tropical Storm detected in the high seas or the in the high seas or the EEZ Malaysia and EEZ Malaysia and increasing in intensity.increasing in intensity.

Dangerous to all shipping Dangerous to all shipping activities including fishing activities including fishing and ferry services.and ferry services.

Dangerous to all coastal Dangerous to all coastal activities.activities.




Third Third CategoryCategory

Strong wind with speed Strong wind with speed from 60 kmph and rough from 60 kmph and rough sea with wave height up sea with wave height up to 5.5 meter.to 5.5 meter.

Tropical storm/typhoon Tropical storm/typhoon heading towards the heading towards the coastal areas of coastal areas of Malaysia.Malaysia.

Dangerous to all Dangerous to all shipping activities.shipping activities.

Dangerous to all Dangerous to all workers on oil workers on oil platform.platform.

Dangerous to all Dangerous to all coastal activities.coastal activities.

Tropical Cyclone Advisory

Strong Wind And Rough Seas Warning

Thank You

Tropical Cyclone Monitoring And Forecasting In Malaysia

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