Trista Patterson , PhD PNW Research Station USDA Forest ... · Trista Patterson , PhD PNW Research...
Transcript of Trista Patterson , PhD PNW Research Station USDA Forest ... · Trista Patterson , PhD PNW Research...
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FOOTPRINTING FOR FUTURISTS:
Trista Patterson , PhD PNW Research StationUSDA Forest Service
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Economic
System WasteEnergy &
Material
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Economic
System WasteEnergy &
Material
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Recycling
Economic
SubsystemWaste
Emissions
Energy &
Material
Inputs
Waste
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Recycling
Economic
SubsystemWaste
Emissions
Energy &
Material
Inputs
Waste
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Nit
roge
n
flo
w
Ocean
acid
ity
?
50-60
70-80
Latest data
90-00
Pre-Ind.
?
??
?
F.T.Chapin, U AK Fairbanks
Rockström et al. Nature, Oct. ‘09
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Recycling
Economic
SubsystemWaste
Emissions
Energy &
Material
Inputs
Waste
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ISO 14001, EMS, ENERGY POLICY ACT OF 2005, EXECUTIVE ORDER 13423 AND THE LATEST EO 13514
Marching Orders:
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GDP is a specialized tool
Includes: activity Excludes: Quality
Net Exports
Consumption Expenditures
Government Expenditures
Built Capital
Natural resource assets
Ecosystem Services
Social Capital
Democracy
Education
Planetary limits
Quality of life
Pollution
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Cost Per Household
1970 $51
1975 $132
1980 $50
1984 $111
1989 $3,159
2008 $8,749
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NATIONAL CONSERVATIONLANDS SYSTEM
Stewardship of the
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NATURALCAPITAL LIFE-SUPPORT SYSTEM
Stewardship of the
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Vision
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Land area
Courtesy: Worldmapper
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Total population
Courtesy: Worldmapper
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Biocapacity
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THE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT
Tools:
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Ecological Footprint
Worldmapper /Global Footprint Network
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5 Footprint Areas
Purchasing
Water
Transport
Energy
Waste
Leadership
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“There will be a
building called
the Dragon
Center. There
will be dragon
books, dragon
movies for
$2.29 and way
more stuff
about dragons.”
Footprint Area #1: Purchasing
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Luxury Goods (Net Import)
Courtesy: Worldmapper
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Timber Imports
Courtesy: Worldmapper
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Forest Loss
Courtesy: Worldmapper
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Footprint Area #2: Water
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“the weather is going to change from rain, rain, rain, to sun, sun, sun!”
“But what if a flood comes and we all have to move? Or a drought, and we have no water?”
“Farm fish!”
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Ground Water Depleted Aquifers
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More Snowmobiles!, A New ATV!
Footprint Area # 3 : Fleet/Transport
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“In the future of Wrangell cars will fly. You
could be flying with gravity boots and racing
on floating tracks in the sky….or take a
bus.“
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Time Spent Commuting
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Footprint Area #4: Energy
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Fuels Use (in energy equivalents)
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Declining discovery, difficult extraction = declining production
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Footprint Area # 5: Waste
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Carbon Dioxide Emissions
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Embedded Carbon
(IEA,2007, WRI 2006)
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Species
Extinctions
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Species at risk
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Footprint Area # 6: Leadership
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“There will be different trees.”
“Better soil!”
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Internet Use(the digital divide)
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The Literacy Disparity
(Female Literacy is the strongest correlating factor for HDI improvement over time)
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Poverty
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NATURALCAPITAL LIFE-SUPPORT SYSTEM
Stewardship of the
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Human Net Appropriation of the Biosphere
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Vision: Living off the Interest
Natural Capital
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Ecosystem Services
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Societal Demands
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Holy Crap! What the heck is he doing?!
SocialPerception
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Unintended Consequences
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Wackernagel et al 2007
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Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors
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Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors
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__
_
Ecological Footprint (Vertical
Axis) Versus the Human
Development Index (Horizontal
Axis)
Wackernagel et al 2007
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TOOLS, SEEDS, SOLUTIONS
Part IV:
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Carbon Emissions
Courtesy: Worldmapper
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Green=National Forest System
Yellow= National Park System
Gold= National Wildlife Refuge
Purple =BLM/Private
Map: Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee
Tool: Valuable Case studies:
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Cost Savings with 10%, 20%, and 30% Increases in Fuel Efficiency
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
Beaverhead-
Deerlodge
Bridger-Teton Caribou-
Targhee
Custer Gallatin Shoshone
* Costs are based on $3.00/gallon
10% 20% 30%
Comparison of GHG Emissions by Forest
(metric tons CO2e)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
B-D B-T C-T Custer Gallatin Shoshone
Mobile
Sources
Purchased
Electricity
Stationary
Sources
Friendly competition
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NATURALCAPITAL LIFE-SUPPORT SYSTEM
Stewardship of the
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Approach: MindsetThese are our lungs.
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Tool: Cultural Shift Foundational Principles.
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Tool: Lifecycle Analysis
Fuel Oil Heat
Biomass Options
Fuel Oil Carbon Biomass Carbon
Biomass Heat Heat
Carbon
=
=
-
-
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Tool: Ecological Footprint Tracking
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Tool: IndicatorsEarth Overshoot Day: Sept 25th, 2009
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Approach: Biomimicry
Wild landscapes exhibit ‘genius of place’ in a way which is uniquely attuned to boundary conditions.
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“Climate” conditions “Nutrient” conditions
“Social” conditions“Temporal” conditions
What settings make us most aware of our ‘place in things’, our ‘boundary conditions’, our ‘limits’?
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Life friendly materials/Benign manufacturing
Lotusan® paintM.Zanowick/US EPA/Biomimicry Inst.
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Lightweighting – Scots PineTrunks and branches of trees withstand external stresses through load-adaptive growth.
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Eco-machine
Wastewater treatment without chemicals
Dr. John Todd (UVM)/ M. Zanowick US EPA / Biomimicry Inst.
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Architecture: Learning from termites how to create sustainable buildings.
Passive Climate Control in the Eastgate Building, Harare Zimbabwe
M. Zanowick, US EPA & Biomimicry Inst.
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conventional = status quo
sustainable = net zero (minimum)
regenerative = provides ecosystem services
“green” = better than average
all OPs
MoreOPs
few OPs
LEEDS
M. Zanowick, US EPA / Biomimicry Inst.
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Tongass Example
Time to payback
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Fast Food Restaurants
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Approach: Systems Analysis, Leverage Points, Strategic Intervention
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“All the restaurants will have healthier foods so people will not get so round or sick.”
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Choice Architecture
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Which settings give us most cause to observe and to reflect?
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Where are the most valuable conversations taking place?
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Vision
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We cannot manage what we do not measure.