Interpera 2016

Trends of pear production and trade

Daphne van Doorn

Interpera - 17 November 2016

Interpera 2016

Agenda

• Global production trends

– Main producers and some variety breakdown

• Trade

– World trade trends

– Main importers / main exporters

– New markets

Interpera 2016

Freshfel & WAPA

• Freshfel is the representative association of the European fresh fruit and vegetables sector. Freshfel represents their interests in the policy field in Brussels. Freshfel has more than 200 members from producer organisations, to import/ export, wholesalers, distributors as well as retail chains.

• WAPA is the world umbrella organisation for the apple and pear producing countries. WAPA was created as a global forum for the industry, incorporating 19 leading apple and pear producing countries around the world both in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere.

• More information can be found via www.freshfel.org and www.wapa-association.org

Interpera 2016

World production

• World production has gradually increased. In 2014 it was estimated at 25.9 mil T.

0

5 000 000

10 000 000

15 000 000

20 000 000

25 000 000

30 000 000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

World production (FAOstat)

Interpera 2016

World production - top 10

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1 China 15.231.858 15.945.013 17.073.000 17.300.752 17.964.400

2 EU 2.276.000 2.652.000 1.888.000 2.327.000 2.425.000

3 Argentina 704.242 812.633 825.115 837.577 856.176

4 United States 738.085 876.087 851.200 877.100 831.600

5 Turkey 380.003 386.382 439.656 461.826 462.336

6 South Africa 368.495 350.527 338.584 379.546 411.991

7 India 336.049 334.774 340.000 325.000 316.700

8 South Korea 307.820 290.494 172.599 282.212 302.731

9 Japan 284.900 312.800 299.000 294.400 295.100

10 Algeria 234.274 233.147 211.191 240.709 228.114

All others 1.841.767 1.891.292 1.924.326 2.015.073 1.858.146

Total 22.703.493 24.085.149 24.362.670 25.341.195 25.952.294

Interpera 2016

EU production detail

• EU pear production forecasted at 2.17 mil T for the 2016 harvest.

• Main producers: IT, NL, BE, ES (FR & PT)

31%

16% 16%

14%

6%

6%

11%

EU production forecast 2016

Italy

Netherlands

Belgium

Spain

Portugal

France

Others

Interpera 2016

EU variety breakdown

1

2

3 4

Interpera 2016

US variety breakdown

1 2

Interpera 2016

Southern Hemisphere

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 F2016

Southern Hemisphere overview

Interpera 2016

Trade: exports

Interpera 2016

Total world trade • Total trade worldwide in 2015 was approx 2.7 mil T

14%

12%

11%

11% 8%

6%

6%

6%

5%

5%

4%

4% 4%

World trade by exporters in 2015

China

Argentina

Belgium

Netherlands

South Africa

USA

Lithuania

Belarus

Italy

Chile

Portugal

Spain

Poland

France

Korea (Rep)

Others

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

World trade by exporters in 2015

Interpera 2016

China export in 2015 China exported in 2015 a quantity of 374.358 T, mainly to other SE-Asian countries

Indonesia: 85.990

Vietnam: 52.631

Hong Kong: 39.719

Thailand: 36.084

Malaysia: 33.675

Russia: 25.362

Philippines: 14.461

India: 14.346

23%

14%

10% 10%

9%

7%

4%

4%

19%

Indonesia

Viet Nam

Hong Kong

Thailand

Malaysia

Russia

Philippines

India

Others

Interpera 2016

Argentina export 2015

36%

21%

14%

8%

3%

18%

Brazil

Russia

USA

Italy

Netherlands

Others

Brazil: 119.284 Argentina exported in 2015

a quantity of 333.090 T, maily to Brazil, Russia, the US and the EU

Russia: 68.661

USA: 47.265

Italy: 25.575

Netherlands: 10.989

Interpera 2016

EU export 2015

RSA exported in 2015 a quantity of 333.090 T, maily to Brazil, Russia, the US and the EU

Belarus: 177.108

Kazakhstan: 12.448

Norway: 17.453

Brazil: 52.359

Morocco: 18.827

The EU exported in 2015 a quantity of 360.788 T, maily to Belarus, Brazil and Morocco. The EU trades the majority internally

49%

15%

5%

5%

3%

23% Belarus

Brazil

Morocco

Norway

Kazakhstan

Others

Interpera 2016

South Africa export 2015

RSA exported in 2015 a quantity of 333.090 T, maily to Brazil, Russia, the US and the EU

26%

16%

7% 6% 5%

5% 4%

31%

Netherlands

Russia

UAE

UK

Italy

France

Hong Kong

Others South Africa exported in 2015 a quantity of 212.264 T, maily to the EU, Russia, UAE and Hong Kong

France: 9.726

Russia: 35.064

UK: 12.779

Italy: 10.171

Netherlands: 56.350

UAE: 15.274

Hong Kong: 7.785

Interpera 2016

US export 2015

The USA exported in 2015 a quantity of 174.776 T, maily to the Mexico and Canada

Saudi Arabia: 3.388 Colombia:

3.351

Canada: 53.827

Mexico: 80.455

China: 3.631

46%

31%

4%

2% 2%

2% 13% Mexico

Canada

UAE

China

Saudi Arabia

Colombia

Others

UAE: 7.130

Interpera 2016

Trade: imports

Interpera 2016

Total world trade

• Total trade worldwide in 2015 was approx 2.7 mil T

10%

7%

7%

6%

6%

6% 4% 4% 4% 3%

3% 3%

29%

World trade by importers in 2015

Russia

Brazil

Belarus

Germany

Lithuania

United Kingdom

Netherlands

France

Indonesia

Italy

USA

Mexico

Hong Kong

Canada

Viet Nam

Others

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

World trade by importers in 2015

Interpera 2016

Trade trends import

2012 2013 2014 2015 % of total imports in 2015 2015 vs 2012

Russia 410.259 383.035 368.858 257.684 9,6% -37%

Brazil 216.826 189.696 208.346 179.306 6,7% -17%

USA 59.388 80.972 81.863 89.308 3,3% 50%

Mexico 41.548 83.349 86.969 85.032 3,2% 105%

India - 11.125 16.308 21.978 0,8% 98%

China 2.479 3.122 7.379 7.930 0,3% 220%

Total World 2.342.535 2.445.780 2.701.469 2.675.697 14%

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

Russia Brazil USA Mexico India China

2012

2013

2014

2015

Interpera 2016

Other importing countries

66%

26%

4%

Brazil in 2015 Argentina

Portugal

Spain

Chile

USA

Uruguay

Italy

France

Netherlands

53%

22%

12%

11%

USA in 2015

Argentina

Chile

China

Korea, Rep.

New Zealand

South Africa

Others

97%

Mexico in 2015

USA

Argentina

Chile

China 59% 22%

13%

5%

China in 2015

USA

Belgium

Netherlands

New Zealand

Argentina

Others

62%

26%

11%

India in 2015

China

South Africa

USA

Belgium

Others

Interpera 2016

Russia imports

27%

16%

13%

7%

6%

5%

4%

22%

2015

Argentina

South Africa

China

Morocco

Serbia

Brazil

Turkey

Others

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2012 2013 2014 2015

Decrease in Russia’s imports

Clear decrease in imports for Russia, also there a large effect from the trade embargo Russia set vis-a-vis the EU and others

Interpera 2016

EU import by third country

40%

27%

26%

4%

EU import in pears by third country partner in 2015

South Africa

Argentina

Chile

China

Uruguay

Turkey

Others

46%

24%

9%

5%

5% 3%

EU import in pears from third country by receiver in 2015

Netherlands

Italy

UK

France

Germany

Spain

Portugal

Greece

Sweden

Belgium

Others

Interpera 2016

EU intra trade

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

EU intra trade by receiver 2015

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

EU intra trade by senders

EU trades internally approximately 850.000 T, some is re-export, some is exported afterwards. NL and BE together +500.000 T

Lithuania re-exports mainly to Belarus

Interpera 2016

EU exports increasing & imports decreasing

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

500 000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU import from third countries vs. export to third countries

Exports

Imports

Within 10 years, the EU has switched from more import focus to more export focus

In 2015 Imports: 212.444 T Exports: 360.788 T

In 2006 Imports: 319.931 T Exports: 236.087 T

Influence embargo Russia

Interpera 2016

EU still impact Russian embargo

Russian import ban - prolonged until end 2017 Different impact for different products – still severe for apples & pears Pears: EU production forecast decrease (-9%) for season 16-17 Careful expectations market recovery due to lower production

Interpera 2016

EU trade developments

• Repositioning after Russian embargo

• Focus of EC on Asia and Americas. – USA : joint protocols for apples and pears on system approach

– FTA : Canada, Japan, Vietnam, Andean & Central America

– China of great interest for pears worldwide.

• Also opportunities in Middle East (markets already there, potential increase)

• Implication of Brexit? (140.000 T intra-EU; 25.000 T third countries)

Interpera 2016

Thank you for your attention! World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA)

+ 32 (0) 2 777 15 80

www.wapa-association.org

wapa@wapa-association.org

Freshfel Europe

+ 32 (0) 2 777 15 80

www.freshfel.org

info@freshfel.org