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Trends in turbine size and technology
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Transcript of Trends in turbine size and technology
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Trends in turbine size and technology
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Summary of talk•Whyconsiderturbinesizeandtechnology
•Lookatoverallsizetrends,andNZ
•Driversfortechnologychange
•Alookatsomerelevanttechnicalareas
•Looktothefuture
•Bestpractise
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Introduction
“They did not know it was impossible, so they did it.”MarkTwain
“20MW is Feasible”UpWindProject,2011
“Nothing is impossible. Some things are just less likely than others.”JonathanWinters
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Introductionwhyconsiderturbinesizeandtechnology?
…every year it seems turbines are getting bigger
•Consentingauthoritiesseekdefinitivedesigns
•Projectdesignparameters
•Resourceassessments
•Advancementsareloweringthecostofenergy
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Selected Recent NZ ConsentsTable of selected recent projects and their size limits/philosophy
Consented Parameters
Project Hub Height Rotor Tip height
Puketoi 100m 130m 160m
Castle Hill Wind Farm 70/90/110m 115/135/155m
Waitahora 100m 100m 125-150m
Turitea 80m 90m 125m
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Turbine size trends
Turbine sizes increases - selected models from era
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Turbine size trends NZ
Turbine sizes increases - selected models from era
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Technology drivers
What are the drivers for turbine technology change?
Reduction of the cost of energy
“Secondary” drivers
•MoreGWh
•Electricalandcommunicationstechnologies
•Economicsofscale
•Materialsscience
•Transport/logistics
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Areas of current R&D
New generation HTS materials = “technically and economically viable”
High Temperature Superconductors
•Superconductingwirewithveryhighperformance
•HTSGeneratorreportedlyaround1/3ofweightofconventionaldirectdriveMVAforMVA
1st generation HTS
2nd generation HTS
Copper price band
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Blades and transport
GE “fabric covered blade”
Two part blades Enercon blade transporter/lifter
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Other tech in play?
•Turbinebatterystorage
•Windfarmstorage
•Hydraulicdrivedrains
•Hybridtowers(concrete/steel)
•Advancedcompositetowers,eg“spaceframetower”
•Permanentmagnetgenerators?
•Completelynewdesigns?
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Turbine size/technology futuretrends
•UpWindproject(2011)concludedthata“20MW turbine is feasible”
•But,reliesontechnologicaladvances…
•Notclearwheneconomiesofscalerelationshipbreaksdown–ceilingkeepsshifting
•Manufacturersknowlogisticsareimportant
•Likelythatturbinescalewillincrease,10MWturbineswillprobablyberealised
•Withtechnologyadvances15MW+isquitepossible
•“Samebutbigger”wontcutit
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What about the ‘small’ end of the market?
•Therearestill“top-ten”manufacturersproducingsmallturbines
•Emergenceofplayersfocussingonthismarketsegment
•Relicensedtechnology
•Usedandrefurbishedturbineindustry
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So how should I plan my project?
•Researchindicatesturbinesaregettingbigger
•Visualassessmentisacomplexarea
Recommendations for developers
•Askmanufacturerswheretheirtechnologyisgoing,productretirement
•Setlimitsbasedonimplementationstrategy
•Continuallymonitormarket..thingschangequickly
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ContactPeter ArmstrongUnitManager,EnergyServices,[email protected]