Trends in the World Traditional & Renewable Heating Markets
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Transcript of Trends in the World Traditional & Renewable Heating Markets
Trends in the World Traditional &
Renewable Heating Markets
Andrew Giles
China Refrigeration Show
April 10th 2014
2 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Agenda
Heating dominated by Europe but it is now a cold spot
Boiler markets growing and moving into condensing inside Europe, but not outside
Efficiency and Control on the top of the agenda – ErP and its impacts
Sanitary hot water heat pumps set to grow in China and USA & growth expected in Europe
Many new solution enter the market = Heat pump main renewable winner
Top 20 hvac manufacturers remain specialised by tehnology
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3 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Heating Market Value by region, 2012
North America
Radiators 0%
UFH 7%
WH 74%
CB 5%
DB** 14%
Total: US$ 5,658 million
Radiators 1%
UFH 6%
WH 79%
CB 2%
DB 12%
Japan
Total: US$ 5,214 million
Radiators 23%
UFH 11%
WH 23%
CB 4%
DB 39%
Europe* Total: US$ 18,897 million
• Europe includes 25 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany , Greece, Italy, Netherlands,
Norway , Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech
Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine
** Domestic boilers in NA doe not include furnaces.
Population (million inhabitants)
USA + Canada Europe Japan China
352 778 127 1,360
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China Total: US$ 7,100 million
Radiators 20%
UFH 19%
WH 47%
CB 5%
DB 9%
4 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Heating hot and cold spots, 2013
Warm spots ≥10-20%
Cold spots <0%
Hot spots ≥20%
Cool spots ≥0-10%
2012/2011 value growth
Belgium
Russia
China
North America
Turkey
Netherlands
Sweden
Spain Japan
France Germany
Italy
Norway
South Korea
Products included: Domestic boilers, commercial boilers, traditional water heaters, radiators & wet underfloor heating.
UK
4
Poland
Iran
5 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Domestic boilers - main EU heating markets
Total domestic boiler sales, 2012 - 2017
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2012
2013
2017
Sales will pick up in
most European
markets
‘000 units
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6 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Technology shift
Domestic gas & oil boiler sales, 2012 - 2017
Outside the EU market
12% 15%
88%
85%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2012 2017
Inside the EU market ‘000 units ‘000 units
70%
85%
30%
15%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2012 2017
non-condensing
condensing
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7 Excellence in Market Intelligence
ErP - Impact on products
Increase in Combined and Hybrid systems Eco Design
A +++ ≥150%
A ++ ≥125%
A + ≥98%
A ≥90%
B ≥82%
C ≥75%
D ≥36%
E ≥34%
Cogeneration Gas HP
Condensing
boilers
Non-
condensing
boilers
Ground /Water to
water HP
Air to water HP
From 26/9/2015
products with Label
D to G are no longer
allowed to be sold
Hybrid Heat Pumps
Combined CB + ST system
+ enhanced Controls
Fuel cell
Labels mandatory from Sep. 2015
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8 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Combining systems
Product label
High efficiency
gas boiler
Solar thermal
system (VT)
Temperature
controls
System label example:
89%
6%
4%
+
+
System
efficiency 99%
A + ≥98%
System label
Separate labelling for
Space Heating and SHW.
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9 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Heat Pump 2020 Outlook
9
22% 17%
10%
19%
7%
15%
4% 6%
18% 18%
7% 1%
51%
0% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,0002012 2020 CAGR 2012-2020
27%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
China
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
Sales volume per country with CAGR 2012 - 2020 growth units
growth units
10 Excellence in Market Intelligence
European Heat Pump market
2012 – 2017
CAGR
2012 – 2017
Cylinder-
integrated WH:
17%
Split:
14%
Exhaust-air:
1%
Monobloc:
5%
Ground /
Water: 1%
2013 Ground/Water sales:
64,200
Split: 84,300
Monobloc: 78,800
Cylinder-integrated WH:
156,300 Exhaust air:
13,800
Based on data for: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Switzerland, UK
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Split: 153,700
Monobloc: 73,200
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Cylinderintegrated HPWH
Split A/W Monoblock A/W Exhaust air HP Ground source HP
2012
2013
2017
units
11 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Up until 2020
11
Products /
technologies
reaching the
market
dfe 2009/10
– 10
2012 2015 2017 2020 2019
Launch FC (Japan)
Resid. Gas
HP
Resid.FC
in
Europe Solar
cooling
Energy
Storage
Systems
Smart Grid + Energy
Homes HEMS
CO2 VRF
CO2 HP
Micro-CHP
ICE/ Stirling Smart
Meters
2000 – 2008
Expansion of
electric HP
and
Solar
Thermals
S y s t e m I n t e g r a t i o n
Hybrid HP
12 Excellence in Market Intelligence
European heating controls
12
‘000 units
Traditional heating controls sales (DE, F, UK), 2012 / 2020
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2012 2020
TRV other valves
dampers/actuators system controls
Room Thermostats
22% growth
72%
94%
81%
28%
6%
19%
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
France UK Germany
Smart home controls*
Traditional heatingcontrols
Traditional & smart home controls market, 2012
€ million
13 Excellence in Market Intelligence
How competitive are renewables
in Europe
13
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
GCB GCB+Combi ST HP HP + Combi ST Hybrid HP Fuel cell
Operating cost, € per year, 2013 (existing dwellings)
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
GCB GCB+Combi ST HP HP + Combi ST Hybrid HP Fuel cell
Germany
UK
Lifetime cost, € per year, 2013 (existing dwellings)
14 Excellence in Market Intelligence
About BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence
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and consultancy in the building and construction industry.
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