Trends & Hot Topics - deschutes.org · Trends & Hot Topics Real Estate Forecast Breakfast February...
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Trends & Hot Topics
▪ Real Estate Forecast Breakfast
February 7, 2019
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Population
23,100 30,442
62,142 74,958
115,367
157,211170,606
190,734230,412
267,798
304,012
339,815 357,345
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50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2065
Population Forecast: 2015-2065
23,100 30,442
62,142 74,958
115,367
157,211
187,621199,793
244,018
289,225
334,042
385,803
432,930
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50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2068
Population Forecast: 2018-2068
Population Forecast
Area / Year 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 2068
Deschutes County (Total) 187,621 199,793 220,708 244,018 266,840 289,225 301,999 432,930
Bend 91,373 98,205 109,338 123,574 138,587 153,696 162,362 255,291
La Pine 1,833 2,081 2,304 2,670 3,023 3,386 3,594 5,894
Redmond 29,364 30,812 33,839 38,524 43,473 48,575 51,625 82,575
Sisters 2,691 3,018 3,340 3,889 4,384 4,867 5,169 8,431
Unincorporated/Rural 62,360 65,677 71,887 75,362 77,373 78,702 79,248 80,739
Changes & Comparisons
Deschutes County Population Forecast Changes
• Growth has been faster than anticipated
• Expects faster growth from 2018-2025, which results in a prediction for a larger population through 2068
County Comparisons 2018-2068
• Deschutes 187,621 – 432,930 245,309
• Crook 22,519 – 37,787 15,268
• Jefferson 23,447 – 32,191 8,744
• Marion 337,773 – 513,142 175,369
• Jackson (2017-67) 219,270 – 320,852 101,582
• Lane (2015-65) 361,540 – 513,982 152,442
2018 Population Comparisons
Preliminary Population Estimate July 1, 2018
Certified Population Estimate July 1, 2017
Population Change 2017-18
Percent Change 2017-18
DESCHUTES 188,980 182,930 6,050 3.3%
CROOK 22,710 22,105 605 2.7%
WASHINGTON 606,280 595,860 10,420 1.7%
JEFFERSON 23,560 23,190 370 1.6%
CLACKAMAS 419,425 413,000 6,425 1.6%
Preliminary Population Estimate July 1, 2018
Certified Population
Estimate July 1, 2017
Population Change 2017-18
Percent Change 2017-18
WASHINGTON 606,280 595,860 10,420 1.7%
MULTNOMAH 813,300 803,000 10,300 1.3%
CLACKAMAS 419,425 413,000 6,425 1.6%
DESCHUTES 188,980 182,930 6,050 3.3%
MARION 344,035 339,200 4,835 1.4%
Development Data
Total Single Family Home Permits
593
717
875957
663
320166
102
100127
218308
376443
556
544
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600
800
1,000
1,200
Total Single Family Homes 2018
Total Building Permits
1,727
1,7571,832
1,924
1,708
1,183
782
630 614
650836
9711,131
1,3091,469
1,592
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Alterations
New Commercial Buildings
Total Land Use Applications
1,090
985
832
685
466385
392463 511
638 784
941901
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Land Use Applications
Total Opened Code Enforcement Cases
252 241
348422
494
606
903
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400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Trends & Hot Topics• 2019 development forecast: Stable
• Expect significant public involvement in land use applications
• Major road projects – Tumalo & Terrebonne
• Future of solid waste – keep it or ship it
• Redmond growth & UGB amendments
• Resort & residential developments
• Significant interest in Sisters & La Pine
• Balance, balance, balance
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