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http://www.wfs.org/futurist/2014-issues-futurist/november-december-2014-vol-

48-no-6/trends-work-overview-tomorrow%2%80%!!s-emp

"#$ &ome ' (he #uturist ' 2014 )ssues of (he #uturist ' *ovember-+ecember

2014 ,ol. 48 *o. 6 '

(rends t "ork: n verview of(omorrow3s mploment cosstem

Timothy C. Mack

(rends ltering the "orkplce 5ndscpe

 mong the mn brod trends ffecting the future workplce nd workers re:

•   ore workplce fle7ibilit will be demnded b new highl skilled

workers but most workers will lso ccept the need to work longer totl

hours.

•   (he workplce9 for n given ob is likel to continue to spred over

multiple time ;ones or continents with workers connecting through growing

rnge of medi chnnels.

•   (here will be greter premium plced on knowledge workers who sk

constructive <uestions concerning n emploer3s mission s well s their

customers mrket vlues desired results nd evolving mrketing nd

business plns.

•   "orkers nd mngers will focus more on simplifing worklods versus

 ust getting it ll done which reduces the risk of missing criticl innovtion

opportunities.

•   ngers will promote helth nd wellness progrms tht focus on

helping workers <uit smoking lose weight or del with depression becuse

helth emploees re more productive nd miss fewer ds becuse of poor 

helth.

•   mploers will embrce less-e7pensive emploee recruiting through

socil networks ,this reched !4% of emploers this lst er reports

=obvite.com. nd hirers re reling more on criticl thinking skills tests like

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the >ollegite 5erning ssessment rther thn on ust college grdes nd

degrees to ssess cndidtes.

•   ore thn ?@% of A.$. emploees re lmost continuousl looking for

work while emploed nd the hold nerl do;en different obs on verge

before ge B@.

•   mploers re using personl reputtion ,strong trck records to mke

hiring decisions nd ?@% of obseekers re using compn brnd9 in the

sme w even ccepting lower slr to work with desired firm.

•   ppro7imtel one-third of mericns in the workforce ,1? million

workers re freelnce contrctors nd consultnts. (his mens more people

working from home without emploer-sponsored helth-cre benefits.

•   nd B0% of A.$. workers re on fle7time when working from home ,or

other loctions two to three ds week. s well some studies hve found

incresed productivit of s much s 1@%C20% for these fle7time workers.

—Timothy C. Mack 

"here will work be in the futureD nd where will workersbeD (he economic socil nd technologicl lndscpe isshifting rpidl. &ere re some of the mor trends lteringthe future workplce.

"hen we think bout the future of work the first thing we usull wnt to know

is wht kinds of obs will be vilble how mn how much the3ll p nd

wht we hve to do to prepre for them. "e then consult resources like the

officil reports regulrl generted b the A.$. Eureu of 5bor $ttistics ,E5$

concerning ob ctegories tht re undergoing chnge in terms of both the

numbers of workers within ech ctegor nd wht the3ll do.

#or e7mple the current E5$ proections for the ers 2012 to 2022 show likel

growth for the ctegories of network sstems nd dt communictions

nlsts personl nd home-cre ides ,lso helth-cre industr humn

resources mrketing etc. computer softwre engineers ,high end nd

veterinr technicins ,ssistnts.

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ore ob openings re lso e7pected for nurses helth-cre technicins nd

dministrtors mssge nd og prctitioners cr service nd shoe repir

personnel s well s retil slespeople dministrtive ides customer

reltions nitoril services nd teching ssistnts.

(he E5$ e7pects tht the fstest-growing ob ctegories of ll will include

orgni;tionl pschologists interpreters occuptionl therpists nd genetic

counselors. #inll not surprisingl the highest-ping obs in the ne7t decde

include ver-high-skilled medicl specilists: orl surgeons obstetricins

orthodontists nd peditricins.

(hese proections re not t ll surprisingF in fct the re rther similr to

those of pst E5$ reports. &owever the depiction of ob growth s no

surprises9 stright line does not necessril forecst wht m ctull hppen

in the ers hed. "hile the fields of helth nd eduction hve long been

economic bulwrks in both len nd prosperous times new technologies re

rpidl being introduced in mn sectors especill those sectors where

industries re fcing specil chllenges or undergoing drmtic chnge.

How New Jobs Are Created

5et us first consider some of the dnmics guiding the cretion of new obs.

ne guiding process is simplifiction. #unctions often get combined becuse

this proves more effective or efficient such s when new needs rise when

new technologies enble combining these functions or when new problems

develop tht demnd cretive solutions. (his dnmic is reflection of the

cretive side of the econom nd this cretive side is wht will drive much of

 ob growth in the twent-first centur.

ne pproch to clrifing this rther comple7 process is to e7mine the new

trends ffecting the workplce in the Anited $ttes. *ew socil dnmics cndrive new product development thus building new mrkets nd creting new

 obs. #or e7mple:

•   )ncresing corporte nd government surveillnce is likel to stimulte

more privc products.

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•   "idening income gps m led to growing securit industr s the

hves9 protect their holdings.

•   (he sheer bundnce of identicl products is rising the perceived vlue

of hndcrfted items.

•   *ew technologicl cpbilities re mking ugmented relit vible

lterntive for mn ,boosting werble computing tools nd personli;ed

lerning mrkets.

•   )nformtion overlod is driving mn to consider dopting new lifestles

tht offer more chnces for solitude nd simplicit.

•   $leep pscholog is enbling n industr of sleep-enhncing products.

•   >ommunictions technolog ccelertion is stimulting the growth of

digitl gents or buer bots on the )nternet.

Get even driverless crs techerless schools nd pilotless plnes will still

need mintennce ,so ground crew mechnics cleners nd similr services

will not dispper.

Re-visioning New Job Develoment

)n ddition to solving new problemsHincluding those creted b new

technologiesHother dnmics lso ffect the future workforce creers nd ob

cretion. #or e7mple s previousl discussed in (& #A(AI)$( ob retrofitting  will involve dding new prts to older tsks or moving them to

new settings such s into outer spceHe.g. lunr wste mngement.

7isting ob descriptions re shifting nd blending to mtch new conditionsH

e.g. n environmentl helth nurse would ddress personl helth plus the

environmentF n gri-resturteur9 would blend frming plus hospitlit

cooking nd food service. ,$ee ?0 =obs for 20B09 =nur-#ebrur 2011.

 ccording to cJinse K >ompn 8@% of new obs involving knowledge work

lso re<uire new problem solving nd strtegic skills. ccordingl nother

pproch to foreseeing the shpe of tomorrow3s workforce is to evlute wht

bilities will be needed to meet the chllenges of the future. (hese m well

include cretivit nlticl problem solving temwork nd collegilit

enhnced mentl fle7ibilit nd incresed decision speed combined with the

bilit to test nd vlidte both comple7 ssumptions nd interctive dnmics.

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*ew tools will lso be needed to cope with problems creted b socil nd

professionl frgmenttion nd dsfunction such s nvigtion through

incresing comple7it improved pttern recognition crisis resolution

communictions skills self-directed lerning nd cberliterc.

 ccording to the MIT Sloan Management Review, no more thn 10% of the

individuls in tpicl orgni;tion or commercil enterprise tod possess the

bilit to look beond e7isting rules nd gols to crete new directions.

(herefore twent-first-centur mngers seeking high-performing emploees

will vlue:

•   )ntelligence more thn mere e7perience.

•   >ommitment nd lolt to orgni;tion nd tsk ownership.

•   "ork ethic including desire to led.

•   Lersonl integritHprticulrl when fcing difficult ethicl dilemms.

•   (emwork nd likbilitHsmrt hrd-working people who like to work

with other smrt hrd-working people.

Technological !nemloyment

"hile it hs long been economic gospel tht innovtion would lws find new

ws to emplo workers fster thn the were rendered obsolete b

utomtion it is not cler tht this will continue ver fr into the twent-first

centur. #ormer A.$. (resur $ecretr 5rr $ummers pegs the

unemploment rte decde from now t one in seven s technolog finll

begins to be recogni;ed s permnent substitute for humn lbor even in

white-collr professions like ccountnc legl work nd technicl writing.

"hite-collr utomtion could ultimtel tke over some 4?% of ll white-collr

 ob ctegories $ummers hs wrned.

$ince the )ndustril Ievolution first begn new obs were lws being cretedeven s old obs were being done w with or drsticll chnged. &owever

while both the highl skilled ,such s lwers nd doctors nd the lrgel

unskilled ,such s frmhnds dockworkers nd mnul lborers tended to

benefit from these newl creted obs those workers with middle-rnge skill

sets did not. 5ike the hnd wevers once thrown out of work b stem-powered

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looms mid-level mngers nd ccountnts re fcing the sme sort of risks

tod.

"ork utomtion tod isn3t ust bout efficientl repeting stndrdi;ed tsks.

 nd ptterns of implementtion of utomtion vr b industr countr ndeconomic sector. #or e7mple in =pn robotics re likel to be t the center

of new mnufcturing but in )ndi humn lbor continues to hold its own s it

is still reltivel ine7pensive.

(his shuffling mong new technologies nd potentil business responses is

wht sets the pce for socil chnge. s (he conomist hs pointed out 10

ers go no one believed tht self-driven crs would ever be vible let lone

t the verge of commercili;tion.

>omputers will soon be ble to perform detiled imge processing on M rs

te7t-mine legl mterils nd turn out fult-free nlses of t7 forms b

breking these duntingl comple7 cognitive tsks into smller nd smller tsk

units.

"hile utomtion hs often been sid to help workers rther thn replce them

surel one of the first mrkets for self-driving crs will be the t7i-cb industr.

)n fct t7is hve lred been on the receiving end of disruptive technolog:Aber3s ride-shring pp which llows users to summon others when the need

ride thus disrupting the lred-in-plce t7i-mngement sstem. $trikes

ggressive regultion nd even legisltion hve ll been responses to

competition perceived s unfir throughout urope nd the Anited $ttes.

Anfir competition9 is lso on the w from mchine nlsis which is

becoming sophisticted enough in such res s te7t-mining legl documents

tht it could soon surpss the bilities of prlegls or other skilled humns.

(his proficienc is mtter not ust of speed ccurc nd cost but lso of the

bilit to criticll ssess logicl reltionships nd suggest successful legl

strtegiesHnd then present those ssessments in innovtive grphic formts

tht lpersons cn esil grsp.

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$ome work functions such s fst-food service re not likel to be cost-

effective to utomte. oreover the d hoc nd interctive nture of burrito

production line like t >hipotle e7icn Nrill ,where specific customer

preferences re<uire customi;ed response nd worker gilit could

flbbergst n utomted sstem or else forcibl stremline the process to the

point of lienting consumers.

 nother thing to consider is tht the push for incresing the minimum wge

could reduce the vilbilit of ob opportunities for low-skilled or lnguge-

chllenged workers ntionwide s such regultion m push smller

businesses out of tht mrket.

Technologies in the Tool "its

obile medi t work is becoming the primr versus secondr worker

network so emploers will need to support complete interconnectivit. Nen

obile9 is behviorl demogrphic with preference for nontrditionl work

hours fle7ible work loctions nd )nternet connectivit. (hese items m t

times be trded off ginst premium slr levels in ob negotitions.

EG+ ,bring our own device policies re e7pnding distributed-core

communictions rchitectures with snc nd shre files s the bse. f course

the chllenge here is to successfull wlk the productivit line between not

enough connectivit nd much too much.

"hile the selection nd hiring of personnel still remins n rt rther thn

science there hs been some progress in <untifing ,nd thus potentill

utomting the process for domins such s open-source progrmming. (he

growing use of engines of mening9 in humn resources nd other res will

be driven b big dt nlsis nd ongoing improvements in ) cpbilitiesH

nd dd to downsi;ing in nother white-collr re.

Trans#ormation o# Travel and Meetings $nd%stry

ne of the most wide-reching influences on the future of work worldwide is the

business trvel nd meeting industr. *ot onl powerhouse behind business

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hiring nd proect negotitions the industr lso offers frmework for trining

nd business-prctice benchmrking globll.

)n 201B globl business trvel surpssed 4B2 million trips with business being

conducted in hotel rooms lounges lobbies meeting rooms conferencebrekout sessions nd other impromptu/informl settings. (his includes

interctive reserch meetings where udiences re polled electronicll on

issues vlues nd preferences. )n ddition sessions re incresingl being

simulcst globll nd locll so interctivit nd ttendnce t sessions cn

run in prllel.

  growing chllenge for business conferences is convincing emploers of the

return on investment from live meeting ttendnce nd how it is possible to

prtner with both on-site nd remote ttendees t the sme conference to

chieve business gols. nd s the ese nd relibilit of interntionl

connectivit increses the need to provide vlue for live ttendees coming from

further w t greter e7pense lso increses.

eeting mngers cn do this b better understnding business trining nd

ws to m7imi;e the effectiveness of the lerning e7perience offered b

conferences nd meetings. $trtegies include:

•   Anderstnding neuroscience nd how we lernHe7pnding the rnge of

deliver sstems t conferenceHrepetition nd skill-building ,ker #ire

model ctivities.

•   +iscerning how to effectivel move from knowledge to lerning nd thus

void overloding n udience with informtion beond the point where the

cn process nd ssimilte it. ttendees t meetings re often stressed b this

mssive overlod of new informtion nd tend to ;one out9 becuse their

brins cn3t digest it ll. ne ide is to void ? .m. sessions but hve more

evening sessions nd networking events t other times of d when greter

effectiveness is possible.

•   nhncing the enggement of ll the senses ,sight hering tste smell

nd touch nd m7imi;ing the use of more fle7ible open-spce orgni;ing

pproches.

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•   ncourging person-to-person collbortion nd supporting cretive

gmifiction ctivities ,interctive content tht encourges enggement nd

hckthons9 such s problem-solving e7ercises nd the building of new

solutions for e7isting problems.

f course the biggest trnsformtive technolog in the business meeting world

is potentill ver disruptive one tht of B-+ hologrphic imging. )n the

Anited $ttes >isco $stems hs hd (eleLresence product in the

mrketplce since 201B. $trightforwrd videoconferencing includes cler

sense of wtching long-distnce prticipnts on screen but >isco

(eleLresence provides both the sense of in-the-sme-room9 prticiption nd

the opportunit for long-distnce third prties to observe this hologrphic

interction s if it were conventionl meeting. *ow icrosoft which hs beenworking on competitive technolog for decdes is utili;ing $kpe bse for

its iewpoint product now nering bet development.

)t is not cler how soon either technolog will brodl ffect the world of work

however. (here will be some bod-lnguge dt recorded tht could be mined

for mening but more-comple7 electronic opportunities for mutul persusion

nd influence tht rivl fce-to-fce encounters re not likel to be competitive

for some time.

&hi#ting Markets and Jobs within Those Markets

(he trnsformtion of mrkets hs been mor impct of new communictions

technolog nd one significnt impct hs been the growth of prosumersH

individuls nd groups who re both producers nd consumers. #or e7mple

the +)G mker9 movement is being ccelerted b rpidl e7pnding B-+/4-+

printing ,the ltter incorportes interctive fetures in the finl product tht

continue to increse their utilit fter printing.

"hen imgining future mrketplce nd future customers don3t forget tht

customers m not be locll or even ntionll bsed. (he globe is now

everone3s bckrd which drives whole new set of logistics ,outrech nd

deliver nd imposes new vlues shped b the number of different cultures

one must now work with.

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(he diversit of both domestic nd overses mrkets is incresing nd

becoming esier to trck which mens there will be need to develop multiple

mrketing chnnels to more effectivel ddress different lnguges customs

eduction income etc. ,nd ll the ob positions thus creted.

>hnge is rvging the retil industr: chnge in how people shop ,mobile point

of sle nd chnge in how people congregte ,disppernce of the mll nd

the mll rt. (he )nternet offers user-friendl sstems tht llow customers to

serch nd select products hndle sle nd distribution ,for pick up or deliver

to store or home from their rmchirs or offices.

(his hs led to the globl decline of the shopping mllHtrnsforming the

shopping e7perience nd the lives of those who worked there. $hopping center

vcncies hve lmost doubled since 2006Hsome with vcncies bove 40%

nd mn retil centers pproching filure. (he cuses of this retil filure

include the globl recession the new ws consumers use technolog to shop

nd fcilit overe7pnsion longside the A.$. housing boom. (he fct tht

filing shopping centers hve the lower rents often leds mrginl businesses

to fil together9 while the strongest tennts consolidte in better loctions.

(o combt these chllenges emploment strtegists ,including emploers

workers nd polic mkers will need imgintion new communities ndnetworks nd new communictions strtegies. (his will re<uire thinking

cretivel nd people re still hed of rtificil intelligence in tht deprtment.

'orklace Demograhics

ne workforce group where chnges re proving to be drmtic nd lsting is

mong those over ge @@. )n 2012 onl =pn reported B0% or more of its

citi;ens older thn @@ ers of ge but b 20B0 there will be 64 such countries

in tht ctegor ,the Anited $ttes lone will hve B4% nd urope will be theoldest region with B6%.

&elth remins the top reson for erl retirement but B!% leve for more

leisure. ost re lso looking for new solutions to protect ginst rising helth-

cre costs including the cost of long-term cre.

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)n contrst to previous $unbelt migrtions in the Anited $ttes retirement-in-

plce is growing much more common even in $nowbelt res. (he end of the

boomer boom9 in 20B0 lred suggests tht slowdown of economic growth

m be coming.

enwhile nother workforce cohort of concern re the mn millennils who

hve not gone on to college. recent Lew Ieserch >enter surve found tht

emploed millennil-ge ,now 2@CB2 ers old high-school grdutes were

erning n verge of O18000 less nnull thn college grdutes in the

sme ge group. s well the were four times more likel to be unemploed

,12% nd three times more likel to live below the povert line ,22%.

)n contrst verge retirement-ge workers now work 4.2 ers pst their

proected retirement dte nd lmost ?0% consider seeking emploment of

some kind fter officill retiring. (his cn include flexretirement  nd

volunteering in order to use one3s life skills to ssist nonprofits.

>ertinl big chnge is coming in $ocil $ecurit. (he twentieth-centur

$ocil $ecurit model ws built on n ssumption of 1@0 workers for ech

retiree. E 20B0 we should e7pect tht rtio in the Anited $ttes to be down to

two workers for ech retiree. (ht definitel mens significnt polic chnge s

millennils will represent B0% of the electorte b 20B0Hnd 12%unemploment for those with onl high-school diplom portends civic

discontent. Niven the fct tht there will be 80 million millennils in the Anited

$ttes b 2020 the will be politicl force to be reckoned with.

(he postretirement ob mrket will re<uire successful cndidtes to focus on

their personl core competencies especill mong those re-creering beond

ge @@. Eesides the growth of peer-to-peer services from the elderl to the

elderl there is lso the significnt growth potentil in collterl mrkets

including construction of new service fcilities ,e.g. communit ssisted-living

nd nursing homes. )n ddition smrt-home tech ,helth monitoring securit

connectivit lso brings with it positions in mnging instlling nd repiring

the hrdwre nd softwre to run smrt home s these collterl industries

grow.

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(eyond the 'orklace Hori)on

"e hve considered number of less-conventionl futures for the world of

work but onl skimmed the trul dventuresome such s the eventul impct

of B-+ printing ,dditive mnufcturing. "ill it become veritble horn ofplent which could suppl ll humn wnts nd thus nullif the need to work to

live9D "hile the phsicl nd economic specifics shping this Elck $wn9

outcome re et uncler culturl nd vlues dnmics hve the potentil to

chnge the w we see work in the ner future.

n boomer retirees pper to be moving w from the ide of working for

mone lone9 ,or t ll. n incresing number of retirees im to provide vlue

to societ s volunteers without being rewrded in trditionl mnner. )n

contrst mn high-school-grdute millennils gree tht work nd the

identit it provides m not be t the center of personl or socil life often

seeing work s ust ob to get b9 ,42% on the Lew surve.

 s the mnner in which individuls nd their demogrphic cohorts view the

world of work chnges nd s socil vlues evolve these shifts in ttitude nd

ction shpe the future of work ust s much s technolog nd economic

forces. (he future hs lws been the outcome of brod rnge of interctive

fctors nd shifts in ttitude drive humn behvior s much or more thnutomtion or recessions.

+* +"*G #I "#$

Abo%t the A%thor 

(imoth >. ck is the former president of the "orld #uture $ociet ,2004C

2014 nd e7ecutive editor of !orl" #uture Review. &is previous rticle for (&

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#A(AI)$( Lrivc nd the $urveillnce 7plosion9 ws published in

=nur-#ebrur 2014.