Copyright 2020 Trend Macrolytics LLC. All rights reserved. This document is not to be forwarded to individuals or organizations not

authorized by Trend Macrolytics LLC to receive it. For information purposes only; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying

or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no

warranty is made as to accuracy.

Trend Macrolytics, LLC

Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer

Thomas Demas, Managing Director

Michael Warren, Energy Strategist

Data Insights: Covid-2019 Monitor Thursday, July 30, 2020

The global scorecard

US + 74,985 Brazil + 1,595

Brazil + 69,074 US + 1,457

India + 52,123 India + 775

South_Africa + 11,362 Mexico + 485

Colombia + 8,670 Colombia + 380

Argentina + 5,939 South_Africa + 240

Mexico + 5,752 Peru + 204

Peru + 5,678 Iran + 196

Russia + 5,475 Russia + 169

Bangladesh + 3,009 Argentina + 118

+ 242,067 + 5,619

World + 293,699 World + 6,714

Top ten 82% Top ten 84%

World

30.6 median population age

New cases New Deaths

The worst ten countries

22.393 bp of population infected

As of Jul 30

New confirmed cases

by continent

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

For more information contact us: Donald Luskin: 312 273 6766 don@trendmacro.com Thomas Demas: 704 552 3625 tdemas@trendmacro.com

2

The US scorecard National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources

New cases New Deaths New in hospital Cume cases Cume deaths Cume in hospital

TX AZ CA NY NY

FL FL FL NJ FL

CA GA NY CA NJ

GA TN TX MA GA

LA VA NJ IL VA

SC OH GA PA MD

AL IN IL FL MA

AZ WA AZ MI CT

NC AR NC TX OH

TN MD MA CT AZ

All states All states All states All states All states

Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten

Fewer daily cases Fewer new deaths Fewer new hospitalizations Most recoveries

United States

LA + 12,790

TX + 6,897

TN + 4,890

OH + 1,639

OK + 1,023

OK -241 MA -15 AL -199

NV -235 MI -15 OK -61

-48 VA -548

MA -256 MS -22 SC -290

+ 666

+ 587

+ 420

+ 202

+ 2,339

+ 1,763

+ 1,737

+ 50

+ 47

+ 46

+ 156

+ 4,333

+ 197

+ 79

+ 71

+ 313

+ 217

+ 45

+ 42

+ 1,107

+ 9,446

+ 9,042

+ 8,755

+ 3,271

FL

TX

CA

TN

GA

Top ten

MO

All states

+ 44,092

+ 66,211

AZ

NC

SC

LA + 1,735

+ 1,671

38.1 median population age

135.914 bp of population infected

61% 68%

4,394,906 142,848

67%

+ 1,418

78%

Five most improved US states

GA -938 AZ -58 AZ -977

PA -286 NJ

475,305 25,132

302,057

74%

The ten worst US states

+ 2,438

+ 2,913

84%

89,995

25,867

21,321

17,964

13,000

12,448

11,855

10,712

10,553

10,060

223,775

168,273 6,422

117,850 6,190

+ 128

+ 82

+ 77

+ 61

+ 59

451,423 15,798

413,593 8,715

178,323 7,162

176,366 6,457

403,307 8,551

180,766 7,654

116,182 4,425

2,681,388 96,506

Dail

y n

ew

cases a

nd d

eath

s

Source: States and test data Covid Tracking Project, US data ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

3

Recommended reading

Silenced Frontline Doctors Hold Capitol Hill Press

Conference to Challenge Big Tech Breitbart July 28, 2020

Economics is a disgrace Claudia Sahm

Macromom Blog July 29, 2020

CBS News Poll Says 70% Of Americans Would Wait

To Get COVID-19 Vaccine, Or Wouldn’t Get One At All Max Gomez

CBS News July 27, 2020

Exploratory analysis of immunization records highlights

decreased SARS-CoV-2 rates in individuals with recent

non-COVID-19 vaccinations Colin Pawlowski et al.

medRvx July 27, 2020

53% of voters more concerned about pandemic health

threat than economic threat Scott Rasmussen

Ballotopedia

July 29, 2020

Coronavirus: Emirates covers Covid-19 medical and

funeral costs BBC News July 28, 2020

America’s Frontline Doctors SCOTUS Press

Conference Transcript July 27, 2020

At Home COVID-19 Testing - A Possible

Breakthrough MedCram July 20, 2020

CDC Director: Threat Of Suicide, Drugs, Flu To Youth

‘Far Greater’ Than Covid Amanda Prestigiacomo

Daily Wire

July 28, 2020

The American Influenza Epidemic of 1918: A Digital

Encyclopedia Influenza Encyclopedia July 2020

Brave Frontline COVID Doctor Calls Out Fake News,

Challenges CNN’s Chris Cuomo to Take a Urine Test

to Prove He Isn’t Taking Hydroxychloroquine Cristina Laila

Gateway Pundit July 27, 2020

Hamptons Concert Turns Into Lightning Rod After

Cuomo Vows Probe Sridhar Natarajan and Amanda L Gordon

Bloomberg July 28, 2020

4

The coronavirus case accelerometer… tracking the world’s infection curves

Share of infected population from first day with 100 confirmed cases, log scale

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

5

The coronavirus mortality accelerometer … tracking the world’s fatality curves

Share of deceased population from day of first fatality

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

6

Our most reliable evidence of slowing exponential growth of Covid-2019 Vertical: number of days it takes to double deaths Horizontal: days from first death

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

7

Requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in new cases

14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low

◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst

Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

8

Alt requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in pos tests 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low

◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst

Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

9

Reality-checking the models: actuals versus IHME predictions

Source: ECDC, IHME, TrendMacro calculations

10

From Ground Zero to the Rio Grande

New York

US ex-New York

Texas139.09 bp of population infected

33.9 median population age

As of Jul 30

38.1 median population age

212.61 bp of population infected

38.2 median population age

131.04 bp of population infected

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

11

The sun-belt hot-spot states (other than Texas)

California

Florida

Arizona231.18 bp of population infected

38.0 median population age

As of Jul 30

42.2 median population age

120.29 bp of population infected

36.7 median population age

210.18 bp of population infected

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

12

Patient zero… and then everyone else

China

World ex-China

As of Jul 30

28.8 median population age

0.62 bp of population infected

37.4 median population age

27.29 bp of population infected

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

13

Impact in the largest economies

Japan

Germany

France

As of Jul 30

41.2 median population age

27.64 bp of population infected

45.9 median population age

47.3 median population age

2.63 bp of population infected

24.93 bp of population infected

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

14

Impact in The Anglosphere

United Kingdom

Canada

Australia

As of Jul 30

40.8 median population age

40.5 median population age

45.23 bp of population infected

30.47 bp of population infected

37.9 median population age

5.63 bp of population infected

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

15

Impact in continental Europe

Italy

Spain

Switzerland

As of Jul 30

42.2 median population age

40.63 bp of population infected

44.9 median population age

45.5 median population age

40.88 bp of population infected

60.22 bp of population infected

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

16

Impact in other hot-spots

South Korea

Singapore

Sweden

As of Jul 30

41.8 median population age

2.75 bp of population infected

90.35 bp of population infected

34.6 median population age

40.9 median population age

78.82 bp of population infected

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

17

Impact in the BRICs ex-China

India

Russia

Brazil

As of Jul 30

39.6 median population age

26.8 median population age

11.81 bp of population infected

5.74 bp of population infected

33.5 median population age

121.83 bp of population infected

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

18

Impact in the Middle East and Africa

Israel

Iran

Africa (52 nations)

As of Jul 30

30.3 median population age

30.2 median population age

77.17 bp of population infected

34.15 bp of population infected

6.47 bp of population infected

19.7 median population age

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations