TRB Webinar: Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19...
Transcript of TRB Webinar: Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19...
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TRB Webinar: Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World
June 2, 2020
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World
Fraser ShillingRoad Ecology CenterUniversity of California, Davishttps://roadecology.ucdavis.edu
Map-image from TRB Webinar, June 2, 2020
Acknowledgements
• First, this presentation is not intended to take away from the pain and losses that many in the US and world have suffered from the pandemic. I also want to acknowledge all who work everyday in health care (including my own wife)
• Thanks to TRB and staff (Elaine Ferrell et al.), the Pacific Southwest Region UTC at USC, my medical colleagues at UC Davis Medical Center (Drs. David Shatz & Christy Adams), and my epidemiology colleagues at the California Department of Public Health (Drs. Nana Tufuoh and Orion Stewart). Finally thanks to Dr. David Waetjen, analyst and web-guy extraordinaire
• Thanks to ITS-UCD, PSR-USC, and NCST for past and continuing support
Main Ideas
Covid-19 rapidly spread from multiple starting points in the US from February into MarchMany local jurisdictions and most states advised residents to “stay-at-home” or “shelter-in-place”Bay Region (6 counties) March 16, California March 20There was massive response to this guidance in the form of reduced driving and air travelThere were multiple outcomes from this sudden change in travel
“Silver” Linings
Silver -- Reduced traffic and crashesGreen/Gold -- Reduced traffic and costsBlue -- Reduced traffic and improved air quality/climate
More information at https://roadecology.ucdavis.edu
CA – Traffic
Traffic volumes on highways (peak veh/hour) reduced 20-60% within 2 weeks
Variation among highways, some with very little reduction
Source: PeMS.dot.ca.gov
Traffic
CA -- Counties
Traffic volumes (VMT) declined ~80% in certain counties from early March to mid-April, then started to climb
Source: streetlightdata.com
Traffic
March 20
March 20March 20
CA – Counties
Not all counties responded the same
Source: streetlightdata.com
Traffic
March 20
March 20
March 16 & 20
US – Counties
This is reflected to varying degrees throughout US, from Autauga, AL to Weston, WY
Source: streetlightdata.com
Traffic
April 5 - 30
March 19 – April 30
VMT reduction
CA – Traffic SpeedSpeeds measured by Caltrans sensors only recorded slight increases in most drivers’ speed, in contrast to news reports on excessive speeding
HIGHWAY PEAK SPEED CHANGE 95TH/99TH (MPH)
AVERAGE SPEED CHANGE (MPH)
I-80 (NV BORDER) +1/0 +3.8 US99 (S OF YUBA CITY) 0/1 +0.2 (n.s.) I280 (DALY CITY) +1/2 +1.6 SR46 (E OF SLO) +1/2 +0.6 SR88 (IONE) +1.2/3 +1.3 SR49 (MARIPOSA) +2/1.2 +0.2 (n.s.) US101 (SLO) +0.6/1 -1.6 I-405 (COSTA MESA) +2/2 +3.5 SR91 (ANAHEIM HILLS) +0/1 -1.2 (n.s.) I-5 (OCEANSIDE) +2/2 +0.7 (n.s.) I-10 (PALM SPRINGS) +1/1 -0.12 (n.s.)
Traffic
I-405
US 101
CA – Crash
Rain events
Traffic crashes of all kinds and injury/fatal declined ~50% within 2 weeks (on state highways)
Variation among regions, and a major impact from rain events
Source: CHIPS – a custom system
Traffic-Safety
Trauma Center Independent Confirmation
Sacramento regional hospitals reported 38% reduction in injuries in/on vehicles (auto/truck/MC) and 46% reduction in injuries to pedestrians and cyclists between early March and mid-AprilThere was no difference between early March 2019 and mid-April 2019
(preliminary results)
Traffic-Safety
CA – Crash Distribution
March 1-14, 2020 (12,990 crashes) April 1-14, 2020 (7962 crashes)Traffic-Safety
Reductions in crashes were evenly distributed throughout state
CA – Crash Costs
Pre-Order (2/27 -3/19)
Post-Order (3/21 -4/11)
Sum Cost $3,065,761,260 $2,180,039,440Daily Cost $139,352,785 $99,092,702
Based on crash-cost coefficients from FHWA (2018)
All property-damage only, minor/major/unknown injury, and fatal outcomes on state highways (~1/3 of state total) summed pre and post-order
CA “saved” $40 million/day in crash-related costs after the order>$2 billion saved since order.
Fuel Use and Revenue
Pre-Order (3/2-8) Post-Order (4/11 - 4/17)Fuel Use 349 million gal 85.8 million gal Tax Revenue $213 million $52.3 million
All travel (VMT) converted to equivalent fuel based upon US automobile fleet average fuel consumption (22.3 miles/gal)
US driving reduction saved drivers $8.6 billion/week in fuel purchase, but cost US states $1.2 billion/week in fuel tax revenue. In CA >$1.3 billion lower tax revenue since order (3/21-5/16)
Conclusion
After “shelter-in-place”Total travel in US dropped 71% between early March and mid-April, in CA the decline was 75%CA crashes on state highways were reduced about 50% per week, except during an exceptional rain eventCosts associated with crashes on highways in CA declined ~$40 million/day, >$2.2 billion in 8 weeks since order (Total will be higher)Fuel tax revenues in CA declined >$1.3 billion in 8 weeks after orderSavings from reduced crashes almost twice loss in tax revenue
Contact [email protected]://roadecology.ucdavis.edu
Effects of COVID-19 Shutdown on Crashes and Travel in NCDaniel Carter, NCDOTTRB Webinar, June 2, 2020
NC Shutdown Timeline
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March 10 Governor declares state of emergency.
March 14,15 NC closes schools; bans gatherings exceeding 100 people. Many churches start holding remote services.
March 24 Counties begin issuing stay-at-home orders.
March 27 Governor issues stay-at-home order for the state.
May 8 Governor lifts some restrictions (Phase 1, retail stores, child care).
May 22 Governor lifts more restrictions (Phase 2, businesses, restaurants, larger venues).
Traffic Volume Trends
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Speed Trends
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Speeds increased from significantly below speed limit to slightly abovespeed limit (elimination of congestion)
Very little change; speeds before shutdown were already close to speed limit (free flow)
NOTE: Data from 4:00-6:00pm on weekdays
Crash Trends
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Preliminary data
Crash Trends
6Preliminary data
Crash Trends
7Preliminary data
Crash Trends• Total crashes decreased by 50%• Fatal crashes decreased by 10%• Fatal + A-injury crashes increased by 6%
Why the difference?– Speed?– Single vehicle vs. multi-vehicle crashes?
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Crash Trends
9Preliminary data
Crash Trends
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Total Crashes by Relation to Speeding (Exceeded Speed Limit)
Crash Trends
11Preliminary data
Crash Trends
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Fatal and Serious Injury (F&A) Crashes by Number of Vehicles
Takeaway Points• Traffic volume decreased significantly
(40%) due to the shutdown but is climbing back up.
• Travel in urban areas decreased more than travel in rural areas.
• Weekday evening interstate speeds increased in congested urban areas but hardly changed in rural areas.
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Takeaway Points• Major reductions in total crashes (50%) • Moderate reductions in fatal crashes
(10%) • Small increases in fatal and serious injury
crashes (6%)• Difference seems to be related to the
higher proportion of single-vehicle crashes but not strongly related to higher speeds.
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TRB WEBINAR: TRAFFIC TRENDS AND SAFETY IN A COVID-19 WORLD
VDOT StaffMena Lockwood, P.E. – Assistant State Traffic Engineer Sanhita Lahiri, P.E., PTOE – Data & System Analysis ManagerSimona Babiceanu – Data Scientist
What is happening in Virginia?
June 2, 2020
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia
Virginia – at a Glance
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• All public roads: 70,393 miles• State maintained roads: 57,867-miles• Inland waterways: 674 miles• Public use airports: 66 • Automobiles registered: 3.9 million• Light trucks registered: 2.0 million• Heavy trucks registered: 34,000• Buses registered: 18,000 • Motorcycles registered: 61,000
Nine VDOT DistrictsFive Regional Traffic Operations Centers2018 VMTs: 85,333,510,600
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia
Traffic Monitoring System (TMS)
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TMS Produces VA’s Source System of Record (SSR) for: • AADTs for 20,000 traffic links • Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) for 120,000
links
TMS Scope of Program:
512 Continuous Count Stations•306 Road Sensors (CCS)•206 Non-Intrusive (Radar) Sensors (NCCS)20,000 48 Hour Count Locations
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia
Corresponding Questions:• Can we increase the allowable
work hours for closing lanes?• Are Virginians staying at home?• Have truck volumes decreased in
non-attainment areas?• How fast are volumes increasing
and when will lane closures need to be restricted again?! (need to know 2 week projection)
• Media: What is traffic doing in my area?
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State of Emergency and Other Governor ActionsDate Governor Action
March 7 First Confirmed COVID Case in Virginia
March 12 Declares state of emergency
March 13 Closes schools for two weeks, beginning 3/16
March 17
Advises to avoid non-essential gatherings of more than 10, Self-quarantine if 65+ with chronic health conditions, Directs restaurants, fitness centers and theaters to reduce capacity to 10
March 20State agencies begin process of implementing telework where possible/applicable
March 23Closes schools for remainder of school year, Orders non-essential businesses to close, Bans gatherings of more than 10, Closes restaurant dining rooms
March 25 Directs hospitals to stop elective surgeries
March 30 Issues statewide stay-at-home order until June 10
April 15Governor extended closing of non-essential businesses for two more weeks
May 15 Some businesses reopen with enhanced safety measures
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia
Track Traffic Trends in Virginia
Volume
Speed
Incidents
Decision Support During Pandemic Influence Phase
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Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia 6
Volume Trends on Continuous Count Station volume
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
# Date Governor Action1 3/12/2020 Declares state of emergency2 3/13/2020 Closes schools for two weeks,
beginning 3/163 3/17/2020 Avoid gatherings of more than
10, Self-quarantine if 65+ with chronic health conditions
4 3/20/2020 State agencies begin process of implementing telework where possible/applicable
5 3/23/2020 Close school for till end of school year. Close non-essential businesses, restaurants & dining rooms. Gatherings of more than 10 banned
6 3/25/2020 Directs hospitals to stop elective surgeries
7 3/30/2020 Issues statewide stay-at-home order until June 10
8 5/09/2020 Phase One will begin no sooner than Friday, 05/15
9 5/12/2020 Delays Phase One for Northern Virginia Localities till 05/28
10 5/14/2020 Delays Phase One for Accomack County and the City of Richmond till 05/28
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia
Statewide All Vehicle Hourly Volume during Peak Hours
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Volume Trends on Continuous Count Station volume
A multiple regression line is used to project forward Volumes to help in near term decision making
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia
All Vehicle Daily Volume by District
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Volume Trends on Continuous Count Station volume
Lynchburg
NOVA
Fredericksburg
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia
Truck Daily Volume by District
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Volume Trends on Continuous Count Station volume
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia
All Vehicle Daily Volume by Area and Roadway Type
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Volume Trends on Continuous Count Station volume
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia 11
Example: Allowable Work Hours volume
MARCH APRILMARCH APRIL
Year 2019: I-81 NB MM 87 – MM 104Year 2020: I-81 NB MM 87 – MM 104
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia 12
Example: Lift Lane Closures volumeVolumes
were Forecasted to get a range of expected traffic during Memorial Day Weekend
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia 13
Speed Trends Based on INRIX Data speed# Date Governor Action1 3/12/2020 Declares state of emergency2 3/13/2020 Closes schools for two
weeks, beginning 3/163 3/17/2020 Avoid gatherings of more
than 10, Self-quarantine if 65+ with chronic health conditions
4 3/20/2020 State agencies begin process of implementing telework where possible/applicable
5 3/23/2020 Close school for till end of school year. Close non-essential businesses, restaurants & dining rooms. Gatherings of more than 10 banned
6 3/25/2020 Directs hospitals to stop elective surgeries
7 3/30/2020 Issues statewide stay-at-home order until June 10
8 5/09/2020 Phase One will begin no sooner than Friday, 05/15
9 5/12/2020 Delays Phase One for Northern Virginia Localities till 05/28
10 5/14/2020 Delays Phase One for Accomack County and the City of Richmond till 05/28
Note: The direction with the lowest speed is shown
Example: Northern Virginia
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia 14
Speed Trends Based on INRIX Data speedExample:
Northern Virginia
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia 15
Incident Trends Based on WAZE Data incident
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia
Preliminary data indicates that during the period of March 13, 2020 through April 30, 2020:• Speed-related crashes account for more than 23% of total
crashes during the time period, which is an increase over the same period last year (18.5%), and higher than the 5-year average (19%).
• Speed-related fatalities make up approximately 48% of overall fatalities during this time period, which is a higher percentage than the 5-year average of 41%.
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Records from DMV safety
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia 17
Weekly Traffic Crash in Virginia safety
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia 18
Example of Actions Taken safety
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia 19
Virginia COVID-19 Traffic Trend Tool tool
Trends are tracked since 01-Jan-2020
https://public.tableau.com/profile/simona.babiceanu#!/vizhome/COVID-19VirginiaTrafficVolumes/ByLinkidDir
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Volume Data tool• Vehicle Types
• All Vehicles• Cars (motorcycles, passenger
cars, pickups & vans)• Trucks (rest of the vehicle
classes)• Actual data collected is used
• No imputation• Data is processed by direction for 893 locations (733 links)
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Volume Data Processing tool• Process historical (2019) data
• Only quality controlled data used• Computation –
• Average hourly volumes by month, DOW, period of day for typical day
• Holiday periods (New Year, Memorial Day, etc.) calculated separately
• Process current (2020) data• All available data used• Computation –
• Average hourly volumes for 24hrs for the Date
• Percent Volume Change computed bycomparing with corresponding 2019 data
Non Holiday Dates compared with 2019 typical dayHoliday period compared with same holiday in 2019
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Volume Data Processing tool• Aggregation Levels
• Hourly• Average Peak Hour –
• AM (7-9 AM), Mid-day (11 AM – 1 PM), PM (4-6 PM)
• Overnight (10 PM – 6 AM)• Daily
• Attributes• Vehicle Type• District• Jurisdiction• Road Type (Interstate/ Non-
Interstate)• Area Type (Rural/Urban)• Location
Traffic Trends and Safety in a COVID-19 World – Virginia
• Data• Volume:
• Approx. 19.5 K records/day or 600 K records/month (120 MB)
• Vehicle Class: • Approx. 8.5 K records/day or 250 K
records/month (77 MB) • District Level (as of 05/26/20):
• 0.5 million records (33MB)• Jurisdiction Level (as of 05/26/20):
• 1.5 million records (132MB)• Location Level (as of 05/26/20):
• 6.3 million records (730MB)
• Processing Environment • Processing is automated
• Oracle SQL, R, Python, Tableau
• Tableau application hosted on Public Tableau server• Packaged Tableau file with data
extracts published to server• File size 30 MB (as of 05/26/20):
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Volume Data Processing (Contd…) tool
Questions?
Mena Lockwood, P.E.Assistant State Traffic Engineer804.786.7779 || [email protected]
Sanhita Lahiri, P.E., PTOEData and System Analysis Manager804.786.1287 || [email protected]
Simona Babiceanu Data Scientist804.729.6268 || [email protected]
Fraser Shilling,Road Ecology Center (UC Davis)
Daniel Carter,North Carolina DOT
Sanhita Lahiri,Virginia DOT
Mena Lockwood,Virginia DOT
Webinar Presenters
TRB Resources• Renewing the National Commitment to the Interstate
Highway System: A Foundation for the Future• NCHRP Research Report 932: A Research Roadmap
for Transportation and Public Health• NCHRP Research Report 928: Identification of Factors
Contributing to the Decline of Traffic Fatalities in the United States from 2008 to 2012
• NCHRP Research Report 875: Guidance for Evaluating the Safety Impacts of Intersection Sight Distance
• NCHRP Synthesis Report 535: Pedestrian Safety Relative to Traffic-Speed Management
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