TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS - harriswilliams.com · TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS AUTOMOTIVE...
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TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ DECEMBER 2016 www.harriswilliams.com Investment banking services are provided by Harris Williams LLC, a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Harris Williams & Co. is a trade name under which Harris Williams LLC and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd conduct business.
Transcript of TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS - harriswilliams.com · TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS AUTOMOTIVE...
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ DECEMBER 2016
www.harriswilliams.com
Investment banking services are provided by Harris Williams LLC, a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd, which is authorised andregulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Harris Williams & Co. is a trade name under which Harris Williams LLC and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd conduct business.
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www.harriswilliams.com
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ DECEMBER 2016
COMING TO TERMS WITH MEANINGFUL AUTOMOTIVE CYBERSECURITY
In addition to opportunities for convenience and entertainment, connected carsraise several significant privacy and security issues. Mandatory legislative orregulatory standards could put U.S. automakers at a disadvantage on the worldmarket, but auto manufacturers may not be properly incentivized to adequatelyaddress cybersecurity on their own.
Bloomberg
VEHICLES GETTING OLDER: AVERAGE AGE OF CARS IN U.S. RISES AGAIN
The average age of light vehicles in operation (VIO) in the U.S. has once againclimbed slightly this year, to 11.6 years, according to industry experts at IHS Markit,a leading provider of business information and analysis for the global automotiveindustry. Registrations for light VIO, including cars and light trucks (SUVs/CUVs aswell) in the U.S. also reached a record level of more than 264 million -- an increaseof more than 6.2 million (2.4 percent) since last year. This represents the highestannual increase the auto industry has seen in the U.S. since it began tracking VIOgrowth – breaking the record of 2.1 percent growth set in 2015.
Yahoo Finance
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CONTENTS
M&A TRANSACTIONS
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE
OUR GROUP
CONTACTS
UNITED STATES
Frank MountcastleManaging [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0124
Jason BassManaging [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0132
Joe ConnerManaging Director [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0151
Jershon JonesDirector [email protected]+1 (804) 932-1356
Jeff BurkettDirector [email protected] +1 (804) 932-1334
Jeff KiddVice President [email protected] +1 (804) 915-0178
James O’MalleyVice President [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0165
EUROPE
Jeffery PerkinsManaging Director [email protected]+49 (0) 69 3650638 00
According to Frost & Sullivan’s The Future of Parts and Service Retailing inAutomotive Aftermarket (May 2015), online B2C sales of automotive parts andaccessories alone are expected to become a $20 billion business by 2020 in NorthAmerica and Europe – an estimated 9 to 10 percent penetration rate within theoverall aftermarket. According to Sree Menon, head of parts and accessories(P&A) at eBay Motors, the automotive e-commerce aftermarket industry continuesto grow, especially as the average age of automobiles climbs beyond its currentrecord of 11.4 years. Online purchasing continues to increase, particularlyconsumer demand for P&A, repairs, and the DIY (Do-it-Yourself) and DIFM (Do-it-For-Me) segments, especially among younger buyers.
American Recycler
ONLINE SALES OF AUTO PARTS EXPANDS
THE LEGAL LANES ARE OPENING FAST FOR DRIVERLESS CARS
2016 was a big year for autonomous cars. Uber launched the first U.S. pilotprogram of a self-driving taxi fleet in Pittsburgh. Otto completed the first beer runever guided by a self-driving truck. All the opportunities and problems associatedwith driverless technology are emerging at a faster rate than some expertsexpected even two years ago. How will our lawmakers respond to this newautonomous world? Right now the guiding principle appears to be, “Drive and letdrive.” Newly passed state laws and a key Cabinet nomination by President-electDonald Trump indicate that tech and auto companies will continue to shape thedriverless future as they see fit in the near term.
The Ringer
The future of the global automotive infotainment market looks promising with opportunities in the passenger car and commercial vehicle. The global automotive infotainment market is expected to reach an estimated $56.7 billion by 2021.The global automotive infotainment market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% from 2016 to 2021. The major drivers of growth for this market are an increase in vehicle production, increasing awareness among consumers towards connected car offerings, and growing government concern on driver's safety and security.
Yahoo Finance
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE INFOTAINMENT MARKET
WHAT WE’RE READING
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Date Target Business Description Acquirer
12/5/2016 KRA International LLC Manufactures wire harnesses and associated assemblies for automotive
aftermarket products
Patrick Industries, Inc.
12/1/2016* CLARCOR, Inc. Manufactures filtration products, filtration systems and serv ices Parker-Hannifin Corp.
11/29/2016 Pacific Parts Ltd. Distributes automotive parts and accessories Uni-Sélect, Inc.
11/26/2016 Turisport SL Distributes tires, wheels, and other automobile products KIT Personalizacion Sport SL
11/18/2016 Fender Gripper, Inc. Manufactures protective fender covers, trunk mats, and carpet
underlayments for the automotive aftermarket
Drake Automotive Group
LLC
11/18/2016 Leffler Industrial Tire & Rubber
Track, Inc.
Manufactures and supplies industrial tires and rubber tracks Global Rubber Industries
(Pvt) Ltd.
11/8/2016* Grohmann Engineering GmbH Develops automated manufacturing systems for batteries and fuel cells Tesla Motors, Inc.
11/3/2016* Metaldyne Performance Group,
Inc.
Prov ides transmission, engine, driveline, and safety critical applications
in passenger, commercial, and industrial vehicles
American Axle &
Manufacturing Holdings
10/31/2016 Autoteile Jakobs GmbH & Co. KG Manufactures automotive replacement parts, accessories, and
industrial supplies
Hess Holding GmbH & Co.
KG
10/28/2016 JAC Products, Inc. Manufactures roof racks and other automotive body trim JAC Products, Inc. /Private
Group/
10/27/2016* Atwood Mobile Products LLC Designs and manufactures vehicles seating and chassis components Drew Industries, Inc.
10/12/2016* Transamerican Auto Parts Manufacturer and distributer of off-road Jeep and truck accessories Polaris Industries Inc.
10/4/2016 Andrew Page Ltd. Distributes vehicle parts and accessories LKQ Corp.
10/4/2016 Hoosier Racing Tire Corp. Prov ides a variety of racing tires Continental AG
10/3/2016 Winfield Consumer Products, Inc. Manufactures and distributes automobile products Truck Hero, Inc.
10/3/2016 REMY International, Inc. /Light
Vehicle Aftermarket Bus/
Manufactures starters, alternators and other related products TA Associates Management
LP
10/3/2016 Ravaglioli SpA Manufactures lifts, aligners, tire changers, wheel balancers and test
lanes
Kinderhook Industries LLC
9/30/2016 Trav is Body & Trailer, Inc. Manufacturer of medium and heavy dump body and hydraulic moist
equipment
Truck Bodies & Equipment
International, Inc.
M&A TRANSACTIONS
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RECENT M&A TRANSACTIONS1,2,3
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ DECEMBER 2016
*Denotes pending transactions
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(4.7%)
8.0%
14.8%
15.9%
Vehicle Manufacturers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
Suppliers
Distributors and Retailers
3.4%
4.7%
7.0%
16.1%
Suppliers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
(2.4%)
4.3%
6.1%
6.3%
Vehicle Manufacturers
Distributors and Retailers
Suppliers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
(2.1%)
(0.7%)
6.6%
13.9%
Suppliers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
6.6x
11.3x
11.8x
12.1x
Suppliers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
Distributors and Retailers
7.5x
9.1x
11.5x
12.3x
Suppliers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
Distributors and Retailers
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW
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TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
TEV / LTM EBITDA TEV / 2016P EBITDA
AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2012 – 2015) AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2015 – 2017P)
AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2012 – 2015) AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2015 – 2017P)
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ DECEMBER 2016
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0.8%
1.4%
12.2%
15.2%
20.7%
Dealerships and
Service Providers
Vehicle
Manufacturers
S&P 500
Distributors and
Retailers
Suppliers
4.3%
5.4%
6.7%
13.1%
14.2%
S&P 500
Distributors and
Retailers
Vehicle
Manufacturers
Suppliers
Dealerships and
Service Providers
(30%)
(25%)
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16
Suppliers Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Service Providers Vehicle Manufacturers
S&P 500 Index
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE
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TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
(Indexed to December 11th, 2015)
TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS
MEDIAN % CHANGE (1 MONTH) MEDIAN % CHANGE (12 MONTH)
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ DECEMBER 2016
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OUR GROUP
Harris Williams & Co. is a leading advisor to the transportation and logistics M&A market. Our Transportation & LogisticsGroup serves companies in a broad range of attractive niches, including third-party logistics (3PL), truck, rail, marineand air transportation, transportation equipment, and the automotive and heavy duty vehicle market.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
RECENTLY CLOSED T&L TRANSACTIONS
DEEP EXPERIENCE ACROSS T&L SECTORS
MARINE TRANSPORTATION
NICHE TRANSPORTATION
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
RAIL & RAIL SERVICES
AUTOMOTIVE & HEAVY DUTY
VEHICLE
THIRD-PARTY LOGISTICS
AIR TRANSPORTATION
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INDUSTRY UPDATE │ DECEMBER 2016
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RCL Services Group
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has been acquired by
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has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
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has merged with
an operating company of
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a portfolio company of
Energy, Power& Infrastructure
IndustrialsHealthcare & Life Sciences
Transportation & Logistics
Aerospace, Defense & Government
Services
Business Services
Building Products & Materials
Technology, Media & Telecom
Specialty Distribution
Consumer
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Transportation & Logistics
Harris Williams & Co. has a broad range of industry expertise, which creates powerful opportunities.Our clients benefit from our deep-sector experience, integrated industry intelligence andcollaboration across the firm, and our commitment to learning what makes them unique. For moreinformation, visit our website at www.harriswilliams.com/industries.
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OUR FIRM
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ DECEMBER 2016
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Suppliers
BorgWarner Inc. $10,963 $41.10 19.5% 3.2% $44.35 92.7% 7.4x 7.1x 7.6x 7.3x 7.1x
Cooper Tire & Rubber Company 2,008 38.65 4.3% 0.4% 40.75 94.8% 5.0x 2.9x 3.1x 4.0x 4.3x
Dorman Products, Inc. 2,570 76.87 15.4% 66.9% 79.03 97.3% 9.7x 10.9x 15.2x 14.0x 12.9x
Federal-Mogul Holdings Corp 4,675 10.37 7.8% 52.1% 10.41 99.6% 7.8x 7.1x 7.4x 6.4x 6.0x
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company 13,912 32.45 10.9% 0.9% 33.51 96.8% 5.8x 5.3x 5.9x 5.4x 5.2x
Modine Manufacturing Company 869 16.00 41.0% 81.6% 16.35 97.9% 7.8x 5.0x 5.9x 6.9x 4.7x
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. 574 27.86 5.0% (25.7%) 38.78 71.8% NM 11.5x 9.2x 6.3x 5.6x
Standard Motor Products, Inc. 1,290 54.15 7.9% 38.2% 54.70 99.0% 9.0x 9.4x 11.2x 10.6x 10.3x
Tenneco Inc. 4,878 65.43 18.4% 38.2% 66.98 97.7% 5.4x 5.3x 5.8x 5.8x 5.3x
Visteon Corporation 2,551 83.95 20.5% (27.9%) 117.87 71.2% 6.7x 15.0x 8.4x 7.8x 7.2x
Median 13.1% 20.7% 97.1% 7.4x 7.1x 7.5x 6.6x 5.8x
Distributors and Retailers
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. $13,701 $173.00 19.3% 16.2% $177.83 97.3% 9.7x 10.7x 10.0x 11.7x 11.0x
AutoZone, Inc. 28,635 802.37 6.9% 6.2% 819.54 97.9% 12.5x 11.9x 12.0x 12.1x 11.4x
Genuine Parts Company 15,268 98.21 3.8% 15.2% 105.97 92.7% 10.4x 11.9x 12.3x 12.3x 11.1x
LKQ Corporation 13,307 33.27 3.3% 18.2% 36.35 91.5% 12.0x 14.5x 13.2x 12.6x 11.0x
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. 27,939 276.87 5.4% 11.2% 292.84 94.5% 15.6x 14.9x 15.0x 14.6x 13.3x
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. 124 3.45 35.3% 50.0% 4.49 76.8% NA NA 13.5x 9.5x 8.1x
Uni-Select Inc. 1,079 22.47 1.6% (3.4%) 27.45 81.9% 9.8x 12.2x 10.4x 10.0x 9.2x
Median 5.4% 15.2% 92.7% 11.2x 12.1x 12.3x 12.1x 11.0x
Dealerships and Service Providers
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. $3,066 $62.00 14.2% (11.8%) $70.73 87.7% 10.0x 9.6x 9.5x 9.6x 9.3x
AutoNation, Inc. 11,172 48.12 11.6% (21.4%) 61.96 77.7% 12.2x 11.8x 11.3x 11.1x 10.7x
Boyd Group Income Fund 1,291 64.08 (1.4%) 28.1% 68.41 93.7% 10.0x 15.4x 14.3x 13.6x 11.5x
CarMax, Inc. 22,945 62.80 14.6% 9.3% 64.88 96.8% NM NM NM 18.7x 17.7x
Copart, Inc. 7,206 55.77 3.1% 45.7% 56.98 97.9% 12.5x 14.4x 15.1x 15.8x 14.0x
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. 4,314 79.03 22.1% 0.8% 82.35 96.0% 10.7x 10.0x 10.4x 11.7x 11.3x
KAR Auction Services, Inc. 8,037 42.80 8.8% 13.0% 44.10 97.1% 11.2x 11.1x 11.2x 10.8x 9.8x
Lithia Motors, Inc. Class A 4,639 98.22 17.9% (15.6%) 116.79 84.1% 13.6x 10.1x 11.7x 11.8x 10.8x
Monro Muffler Brake, Inc. 2,343 58.65 6.0% (15.7%) 73.86 79.4% 16.6x 14.3x 14.8x 13.7x 12.1x
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. 9,653 54.10 14.7% 22.7% 56.05 96.5% 13.1x 12.3x 14.6x 14.2x 13.5x
Sonic Automotive, Inc. Class A 3,244 22.25 15.6% (4.5%) 23.83 93.4% 10.8x 10.1x 10.6x 11.2x 10.8x
Median 14.2% 0.8% 93.7% 11.7x 11.5x 11.5x 11.8x 11.3x
Stock Performance
Stock Price Change from 52-Week TEV / EBITDA EBITDA
($ in millions except per share data) TEV Current Prior Month Prior Year High % of High Dec-15 Jun-16 Current 2016P 2017P
Automotive Aftermarket
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
7
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ DECEMBER 2016
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Vehicle Manufacturers
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG $159,992 $93.45 7.5% (9.7%) $108.71 86.0% 7.6x 7.6x 8.4x 10.2x 10.2x
Daimler AG 178,951 72.33 2.9% (11.9%) 86.13 84.0% 5.6x 6.5x 6.7x 9.2x 8.4x
Ford Motor Company 154,450 12.82 4.4% (6.0%) 14.38 89.2% 14.0x 8.7x 11.4x 11.4x 12.6x
General Motors Company 112,042 37.10 9.1% 7.4% 37.74 98.3% 6.2x 5.7x 5.6x 6.4x 6.6x
Harley-Davidson, Inc. 16,959 60.75 3.0% 33.1% 62.35 97.4% 11.1x 10.9x 11.7x 13.6x 12.8x
Navistar International Corporation 6,827 31.32 16.5% 253.9% 32.84 95.4% 8.7x 9.6x 12.3x 12.4x 11.6x
Oshkosh Corp 5,703 69.58 5.9% 78.6% 71.99 96.7% 7.6x 9.2x 11.0x 11.2x 10.3x
PACCAR Inc 29,269 67.10 13.4% 42.0% 68.50 98.0% 6.7x 7.5x 9.6x 13.8x 15.0x
Toyota Motor Corp. 310,709 60.65 8.6% (4.5%) 64.60 93.9% 8.8x 8.0x 8.7x 11.6x 10.5x
Volkswagen AG Pref 201,050 134.78 5.7% (4.7%) 155.19 86.9% 6.3x 8.2x 6.6x 6.8x 6.3x
Median 6.7% 1.4% 94.6% 7.6x 8.1x 9.1x 11.3x 10.4x
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
8
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ DECEMBER 2016
Stock Performance
Stock Price Change from 52-Week TEV / EBITDA EBITDA
($ in millions except per share data) TEV Current Prior Month Prior Year High % of High Dec-15 Jun-16 Current 2016P 2017P
Automotive Aftermarket
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of
PAGE |
Suppliers
BorgWarner Inc. $7,178 $7,435 $8,304 $8,025 $9,120 $9,413 3.8% 8.3% $1,106 $1,224 $1,385 $1,330 $1,500 $1,537 6.4% 7.5%
Cooper Tire & Rubber Company 4,201 3,439 3,421 2,959 2,912 3,022 (11.0%) 1.0% 526 394 436 541 508 490 1.0% (4.8%)
Dorman Products, Inc. 570 664 751 803 853 930 12.1% 7.6% 112 138 153 162 183 200 13.0% 10.9%
Federal-Mogul Holdings Corp 6,664 6,786 7,317 7,419 7,440 7,680 3.6% 1.7% 448 569 573 570 735 780 8.4% 17.0%
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company 20,992 19,540 18,138 16,443 15,287 15,693 (7.8%) (2.3%) 1,824 2,107 2,251 2,349 2,551 2,688 8.8% 7.0%
Modine Manufacturing Company 1,376 1,478 1,496 1,353 1,520 1,916 (0.6%) 19.0% 101 121 110 114 127 186 4.0% 27.7%
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. 406 259 302 369 426 476 (3.2%) 13.6% 0 46 38 49 91 102 NM 44.1%
Standard Motor Products, Inc. 949 984 980 972 1,062 1,128 0.8% 7.7% 89 107 113 92 122 125 1.4% 16.5%
Tenneco Inc. 7,363 7,964 8,420 8,209 8,539 8,980 3.7% 4.6% 649 707 752 785 847 914 6.5% 7.9%
Visteon Corporation 6,857 7,439 7,509 3,245 3,109 3,215 (22.1%) (0.5%) 493 590 663 265 325 349 (18.7%) 14.7%
Total $56,556 $55,988 $56,639 $49,796 $50,266 $52,453 (2.1%) 6.1% $5,348 $6,002 $6,475 $6,258 $6,988 $7,371 3.4% 14.8%
Distributors and Retailers
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. $6,205 $6,494 $9,844 $9,737 $9,502 $9,664 16.2% (0.4%) $847 $901 $1,244 $1,147 $1,176 $1,238 10.6% 3.9%
AutoZone, Inc. 8,604 9,148 9,475 10,187 10,636 10,636 5.8% 2.2% 1,841 2,002 2,081 2,223 2,358 2,358 6.5% 3.0%
Genuine Parts Company 13,014 14,078 15,342 15,280 15,337 15,860 5.5% 1.9% 1,122 1,117 1,273 1,266 1,249 1,354 4.1% 3.4%
LKQ Corporation 4,123 5,063 6,740 7,193 9,061 10,141 20.4% 18.7% 493 627 790 852 1,052 1,217 20.0% 19.5%
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. 6,182 6,649 7,216 7,967 8,580 9,183 8.8% 7.4% 1,154 1,287 1,465 1,743 1,909 2,102 14.7% 9.8%
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. 304 255 284 291 303 318 (1.4%) 4.5% 8 5 5 6 13 15 (8.5%) 61.3%
Uni-Select Inc. 1,821 1,788 1,784 1,355 1,205 1,251 (9.4%) (3.9%) 90 92 104 94 108 115 1.5% 10.5%
Total $40,253 $43,474 $50,685 $52,010 $54,623 $57,053 6.6% 4.3% $5,554 $6,031 $6,961 $7,331 $7,865 $8,398 7.0% 15.9%
Dealerships and Service Providers
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. $4,640 $5,335 $5,868 $6,588 $6,468 $6,618 12.4% 0.2% $209 $270 $313 $331 $320 $331 16.6% 0.1%
AutoNation, Inc. 15,669 17,518 19,109 20,862 21,721 22,586 10.0% 4.1% 737 843 909 998 1,009 1,053 10.6% 2.7%
Boyd Group Income Fund 435 561 764 918 1,057 1,237 28.3% 16.1% 30 40 77 79 95 113 38.5% 19.3%
CarMax, Inc. 10,963 12,574 14,269 15,150 15,843 17,018 11.4% 6.0% 529 595 724 804 1,232 1,309 15.0% 27.6%
Copart, Inc. 924 1,046 1,163 1,146 1,268 1,268 7.4% 5.2% 346 342 363 394 455 455 4.4% 7.5%
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. 7,476 8,919 9,938 10,633 10,913 11,084 12.5% 2.1% 269 346 375 408 371 381 14.9% (3.3%)
KAR Auction Services, Inc. 1,963 2,173 2,365 2,640 3,075 3,318 10.4% 12.1% 457 451 574 640 747 829 11.9% 13.8%
Lithia Motors, Inc. Class A 3,316 4,006 5,390 7,864 8,602 9,523 33.4% 10.0% 166 207 266 377 392 427 31.5% 6.5%
Monro Muffler Brake, Inc. 732 831 894 944 1,035 1,129 8.8% 9.4% 103 127 147 161 171 192 16.0% 9.3%
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. 13,164 14,705 17,177 19,285 20,187 20,448 13.6% 3.0% 419 498 574 645 676 722 15.4% 5.8%
Sonic Automotive, Inc. Class A 8,365 8,843 9,197 9,624 9,672 9,930 4.8% 1.6% 289 300 294 307 293 301 2.0% (0.9%)
Total $67,648 $76,512 $86,134 $95,653 $99,841 $104,158 13.9% 6.3% $3,553 $4,019 $4,617 $5,143 $5,760 $6,114 16.1% 8.0%
Revenue Revenue Growth EBITDA EBITDA Growth
($ in millions) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P 2017P '12-15 '15-17P 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P 2017P '12-15 '15-17P
Automotive Aftermarket
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
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TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ DECEMBER 2016
PAGE |
Vehicle Manufacturers
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG $98,709 $100,976 $106,648 $102,215 $100,635 $102,893 1.2% 0.3% $20,286 $19,443 $21,734 $19,303 $15,608 $15,675 (1.6%) (9.9%)
Daimler AG 146,811 156,635 172,268 165,747 162,039 166,678 4.1% 0.3% 19,691 21,079 25,936 26,045 19,707 20,961 9.8% (10.3%)
Ford Motor Company 134,266 146,917 144,077 149,558 140,648 142,355 3.7% (2.4%) 12,958 13,183 11,324 15,557 13,531 11,258 6.3% (14.9%)
General Motors Company 152,256 155,427 155,929 152,356 162,794 161,703 0.0% 3.0% 10,670 12,708 8,853 15,518 17,564 17,157 13.3% 5.1%
Harley-Davidson, Inc. 5,581 5,900 6,229 5,995 5,315 5,430 2.4% (4.8%) 1,183 1,324 1,452 1,330 1,270 1,341 4.0% 0.4%
Navistar International Corporation 12,948 10,775 10,806 10,140 8,229 8,175 (7.8%) (10.2%) (374) (192) 295 567 551 603 NM 3.1%
Oshkosh Corp 8,181 7,665 6,808 6,098 6,279 6,279 (9.3%) 1.5% 500 644 622 523 518 518 1.5% (0.5%)
PACCAR Inc 17,051 17,124 18,997 19,115 15,904 15,327 3.9% (10.5%) 2,458 2,648 2,899 3,198 2,034 1,942 9.2% (22.1%)
Toyota Motor Corp. 266,131 256,480 247,980 236,533 230,112 237,344 (3.9%) 0.2% 30,332 35,160 38,164 36,457 25,296 28,323 6.3% (11.9%)
Volkswagen AG Pref 247,486 261,550 268,549 236,524 225,961 231,239 (1.5%) (1.1%) 29,739 30,822 33,686 24,722 29,888 31,830 (6.0%) 13.5%
Total $1,089,420 $1,119,448 $1,138,291 $1,084,281 $1,057,915 $1,077,421 (0.7%) (2.4%) $127,443 $136,819 $144,965 $143,220 $125,966 $129,606 4.7% (4.7%)
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
10
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ DECEMBER 2016
Revenue Revenue Growth EBITDA EBITDA Growth
($ in millions) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P 2017P '12-15 '15-17P 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P 2017P '12-15 '15-17P
Automotive Aftermarket
PAGE |
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
SOURCES
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
1. FactSet.
2. MergerMarket.
3. Pitchbook.
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DISCLOSURES
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AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ DECEMBER 2016
