Transport Sector in Brazil
Transcript of Transport Sector in Brazil
Transport Sector in Brazil
New Energy Indicators for Transport:The Way ForwardParis - January 28 and 29, 2008
Carlos Feu Alvim – Economy & Energy – e&e
Transport Sector andGHG Emissions in Brazil
Transport Sector and GHG EmissionsNew Cars Sales by ModeEnergy Prices and Vehicles MarketNew Car Sales by FuelNew Car Sales by FuelVehicle Fleet by Mode and FuelUse of Natural Gas and BiodieselGHG Emissions in TransportMotorcycles Sales and Fleet
Transport Sector andGHG Emissions in Brazil
Transport Sector and GHG EmissionsNew Cars Sales by ModeEnergy Prices and Vehicles MarketNew Car Sales by FuelNew Car Sales by FuelVehicle Fleet by Mode and FuelUse of Natural Gas and BiodieselGHG Emissions in TransportMotorcycles Sales and Fleet
Transport Sector in Brazil :Transport in Brazil and GHG Emissions
Transport is responsible for 24% of global GHG emissions from fossil fuelsTransport accounts for 42% of carbon emissions from energy use from energy use In 1994 only 23% of CO2 emissions were due to energy activities according to the first Brazilian GHG InventoryEmissions due to fossil energy use is not yet predominant in Brazil but its share is increasing
Transport Sector in Brazil GHG Emissions from Energy Uses
20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
Transport
Industrial
0%5%
10%15%20%
1970 1980 1990 2000
Energy Sector Residential Sector Commercial and Public
Agriculture Transport Industrial Sector
Electric Generation Others
Electricity
Transport Sector andGHG Emissions in Brazil
Transport Sector and GHG EmissionsNew Cars Sales by ModeEnergy Prices and Vehicles MarketNew Car Sales by FuelNew Car Sales by FuelVehicle Fleet by Mode and FuelUse of Natural Gas and BiodieselGHG Emissions in TransportMotorcycles Sales and Fleet
Transport Sector in Brazil :New Vehicles Market by Mode – 2007
Thousand Vehicles/Year
Produced Exported Imported Registered
National Registered
Stock Changes
Passenger cars 2389 586 176 1799 180
Light commercials
408 144 88 277 75
Trucks 137 41 3.3 95 4
Buses 39 15 0.046 23 1
Total 2973 787 268 2195 259
Transport Sector in Brazil Sales (New Car Registration) by Mode
1500
2000
2500 V
ehic
les
/ Yea
r Cars
0
500
1000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Tho
usan
d V
e
Cars Light Commercials Trucks Buses
Light Commercials
Transport Sector in Brazil New Car Registration – Heavy Vehicles
60
80
100
120V
ehic
les
/ Yea
r Trucks
0
20
40
60
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Tho
usan
d V
e
Trucks Buses
Buses
Transport Sector in Brazil :Share 1000 cc Engines in Registration of New Cars – Year 2007 Thousand Vehicles/Year
TOTAL 2973 Light vehicles 2797 Passenger cars 2389 Light commercials GVW < 3.5 ton 408 Trucks 137 Semi-light GVW > 3.5 t < 6 t 6 Semi-light GVW > 3.5 t < 6 t 6 Light GVW > 6 t < 10 t 27 Medium GVW > 10 t < 15 t 14 Semi-heavy GVW > 15 t 43 Heavy GVW > 15 t 47 GCW> 45 t 0 Buses(Chassis) 39 Coach 7 City bus 31 GVW (gross vehicle weight) GCW (Gross Combined Weight )
Transport Sector in Brazil :Share 1000 cc Engines in Registration of New Cars – Year 2007 and 1000 cc Share in Sales
Thousand Vehicles/Year
1000 cc 1067 54%
Car Sales in 2007
Share 1000 cc Engines in Registration of New Cars
70
80
1000 cc 1067 54%
<1000 cc >= 2000 cc 882 45%
>2000 cc 27 1%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1995 2000 2005
Per
cent
age
Transport Sector andGHG Emissions in Brazil
Transport Sector and GHG EmissionsNew Cars Sales by ModeEnergy Prices and Vehicles MarketNew Car Sales by FuelNew Car Sales by FuelVehicle Fleet by Mode and FuelUse of Natural Gas and BiodieselGHG Emissions in TransportMotorcycles Sales and Fleet
Transport Sector in Brazil :Domestic Fuel Prices
150
200
25000
6)/b
oe
0
50
100
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
US
$(20
0
Imported Oil Diesel Gasoline Alcohol Natural Gas
Transport Sector in Brazil :Changes Affecting Fuel Consumption and Vehicles Carbon Emissions
After First Oil Price Shock (1973)Change in domestic relative price gasoline/diesel Anhydrous alcohol in gasoline mixture
After Second Oil Price Shock (1979)Pure Alcohol VehiclesPure Alcohol VehiclesSale of Pure Alcohol Vehicles almost zero
After Third Oil Price Shock and GHG Increased ConcernsFlex Fuel (gasoline/alcohol)Compressed Natural GasBiodiesel
Transport Sector andGHG Emissions in Brazil
Transport Sector and GHG EmissionsNew Cars Sales by ModeEnergy Prices and Vehicles MarketNew Car Sales by FuelNew Car Sales by FuelVehicle Fleet by Mode and FuelUse of Natural Gas and BiodieselGHG Emissions in TransportMottos Sales and Fleet
Transport Sector in Brazil :Share of New Trucks Registration by Fuel
60%
80%
100%
GasolineDiesel
Alcohol
0%
20%
40%
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
Diesel Gasolina Álcool
Transport Sector in Brazil :Share of New Cars Registration by Fuel
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%AlcoholGasoline Flex
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
Diesel Gasoline Alcohol Flex
Transport Sector andGHG Emissions in Brazil
Transport Sector and GHG EmissionsNew Cars Sales by ModeEnergy Prices and Vehicles MarketNew Car Sales by FuelNew Car Sales by FuelVehicle Fleet by Mode and FuelUse of Natural Gas and BiodieselGHG Emissions in TransportMotorcycles Sales and Fleet
Transport Sector in Brazil :Road Transport Fleet – Different Sources
Year 2006 Denatran e&e AnfaveaThousandVehicles
ThousandVehicles
% Denatran
ThousandVehicles
% Denatran
Passenger cars 27000 22974 85% 19212 71%Passenger cars 27000 22974 85% 19212 71%
Light commercials
4485 3594 80% 3061 68%
Trucks 2004 1254 63% 1411 70%
Buses 344 281 82% 386 112%
Total 33833 28103 83% 24070 71%
Transport Sector in Brazil :Comments about Different Fleet Sources
Denatran – National Road Traffic Department (Official Data) – Inter-states vehicles changes are not well computedare not well computedAnfavea – National Association of Automotive Industry - Fleet based on annual vehicle registration and calculated annual scrapping,e&e – Same methodology but different scrapping rates
Transport Sector in Brazil :Road Transport Fleet
20
25
30
35
es (
Mill
ion)
20%
25%
30%
35%
row
th R
ate
0
5
10
15
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Veh
icle
s
0%
5%
10%
15%
Ann
ual G
ro
Total Fleet Annual Growth Rate
Fleet
Annual Growth Rate
Transport Sector in Brazil Car Fleet Evolution by Fuel
15
20
25
30
of V
ehic
les
0
5
10
15
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
Mill
ions
o
Diesel Gasoline Alcohol Flex
Transport Sector in Brazil :Average Age of Cars Fleet
10
12
14
16
18
20in
Yea
rs Gasoline Vehicles
Alcohol Vehicles
Average
0
2
4
6
8
10
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Age
in
Gasoline Alcohol Flex Average
Flex Vehicles
Transport Sector andGHG Emissions in Brazil
Transport Sector and GHG EmissionsNew Cars Sales by ModeEnergy Prices and Vehicles MarketNew Car Sales by FuelNew Car Sales by FuelVehicle Fleet by Mode and FuelUse of Natural Gas and BiodieselGHG Emissions in TransportMotorcycles Sales and Fleet
Transport Sector in Brazil :Use of Compressed Natural Gas in Vehicles
All the present fleet is of converted cars (dual fuel) using gasoline/NG or Alcohol/NGEstimated fleet 1.4 million car (light vehicles)Average consumption
220 million m3/month220 million m3/month5,1 Nm3/day
Brazilian NGV fleet of Brazilian almost equal to Argentinean in 2007Prices: Gasoline 0.66 US$/l, Alcohol 0.99 US$/lNGV 0,66/m3 40% Gasoline, 39% Alcohol (Energy Relative Price) Data Source: NGV Group September 2007
Transport Sector in Brazil :Biodiesel
National Target: 5% renewable fuel mixed with diesel for next years (present target 2%)
Sterification of vegetable oilH-bio produced in hydro-treating units in existing oil H-bio produced in hydro-treating units in existing oil refineries
Brazilian Biodiesel Production (in million of boe / year )
2005 0.005 2006 0.42007 2.5 (1.3% of diesel consumption)
Transport Sector andGHG Emissions in Brazil
Transport Sector and GHG EmissionsNew Cars Sales by ModeEnergy Prices and Vehicles MarketNew Car Sales by FuelNew Car Sales by FuelVehicle Fleet by Mode and FuelUse of Natural Gas and BiodieselGHG Emissions in TransportMotorcycles Sales and Fleet
Transport Sector in Brazil :Road Transportation Fuel Consumption
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
nerg
y
Natural Gas
Hydrated Alcohol
Anhydrous Alcohol
Gasoline
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
Fin
al E
ne
Diesel Oil Gasoline Anhydrous Alcohol
Hydrated Alcohol Natural Gas
Diesel Oil
Transport Sector in Brazil :Carbon Emissions Avoided
Emissions in Transport: Effective and Avoided
30
35
40
45
50
of C
arbo
nSubstit. HydratedAlcoholSubstit. AnhydrousAlcoholSubstitutionNG/GasolineSubstitutionDiesel/GasolineAVIATION
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
Tg
or m
illio
n t o
f Diesel/GasolineAVIATIONKEROSENENATURAL GAS
GASOLINE
DIESEL OIL
MINERAL COAL
FUEL OIL
Transport Sector andGHG Emissions in Brazil
Transport Sector and GHG EmissionsNew Cars Sales by ModeEnergy Prices and Vehicles MarketNew Car Sales by FuelNew Car Sales by FuelVehicle Fleet by Mode and FuelUse of Natural Gas and BiodieselGHG Emissions in TransportMotorcycles Sales and Fleet
Transport Sector in Brazil :Motorcycles and Cars Sales
1,5
2
2,5
otoc
yles
/yea
r
Cars
0
0,5
1
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
mill
ion
mot
o
Motocycles Cars
Motocycles
Transport Sector in Brazil :Motorcycles and Motorcycles/Cars Fleets
6
7
8
9
10
ehic
les
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
/car
s
mottos fleet
0
1
2
3
4
5
2003 2003,5 2004 2004,5 2005 2005,5 2006
Mill
ion
Veh
i
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
mot
tos/
ca
mottos mottos/cars
mottos/cars fleet
Transport Sector in BrasilMotorcycles and Traffic
In Brazil motorcycles are still considered as a marginal vehicleThe motorcycles fleet is now 1/3 of cars fleetAbout 380 thousand About 380 thousand registered accidents with victims (36 thousand deaths) in 2005Recently the Sao Paulo’s administration established some special corridor for motorcycles
Transport Sector andGHG Emissions in Brazil
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Transport Sector in Brazil :Transport Fuel Consumption
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%F
inal
Ene
rgy
Jet Fuel
Natural GasHydrated Alcohol
Anhydrous Alcohol
Gasoline
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
F
Fuel oil Electricity CoalDiesel Oil Gasoline Anhydrous AlcoholHydrated Alcohol Natural Gas Jet Fuel
Diesel Oil
Bunker Fuel