Transport policies and measures in EU to mitigate climate change

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, 20-21 February 2007

Transport policies and measures in EU to mitigate

climate changeFrançois MOISAN

Director of Strategy and Research

Scientific Director

ADEME, France


80

90

100

110

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Bot

tom

-up

en

ergy

eff

icie

ncy

in

dex

Overall Cars Trucks Air transport

cars: specific consumption in litres/km trucks & light vehicles : unit

consumption per ton-km

air : unit consumption per passenger-kmrail ,water : unit consumption/pkm or tkm

motorcycles, buses: toe/vehicle

ODEX Transport :ODEX Transport :

Since 1990, unit consumption of each Since 1990, unit consumption of each transport mode decreased but global COtransport mode decreased but global CO22

emissions from transport increased by 26%emissions from transport increased by 26%


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

%

Spain Italy Nederlands Belgium UKSweden EU Finland Germany FrancePortugal Norway Denmark Austria Greece

EU 15

Since 1990, large discrepancies in energy efficiency progress of transport modes in

different Member States


• Energy demand for trucks will increase strongly (x 1.85 to 2 vs 1990) representing more than 40% of transport consumption in 2030

• Private cars consumption will remain important (about 40% of total consumption) but would decrease since 2010 in absolute value

• Aviation consumption will increase in relative and absolute terms 13 to 15 % of total transport demand in 2030 (11% in 1990)

• CO2 emissions would increase by 10 to 38% (vs 1990) !

EU transport sector in 2030 : energy and CO2 forecast (DGTREN)

… … but emissions of greenhouse gases should be reducedbut emissions of greenhouse gases should be reduced by a factor 4 to 5 at 2050by a factor 4 to 5 at 2050


• Attractivity of public and railway transport modes (reduction of noise and pollution, TIC)

• Development of energy efficiency of cars : reduction of weight, auxiliaries, motors and combustion

• Biofuels

• Hybrid, plugable hybrid, electrical and natural gas vehicles

• Hydrogen and fuel cells vehicles

Technical options for road transports


• Scenario « enhanced energy efficiency of vehicules » (50% gain on unit consumptions), contribution of biofuels (15%) and conventional oil.

• Scenario « fleet segmentation » : development of specific urban vehicle (electric) : limited autonomy for urban travels, alternative schemes of vehicle property (shared property…) + biofuels and conventional oil for other uses and other vehicles.

Factor 4 visions to 2050 : 4 road maps


• Scenario « hydrogen and fuel cells without CO2 » : 2/3 of vehicles are fueled with hydrogen produced by a free CO2 source (eventually with CO2 capture and storage)

• Scenario « electricity and plugable hybrid vehicle» electricity without CO2 for 80% of motor fuel mix + 15% biofuels

Factor 4 visions to 2050 : 4 road maps (following)


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Years0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Years

penetration rate in new cars soldssurvival ratepenetration rate in the cars stock

Source ADEME from C. GALLEZ

25 to 30 years to transform the cars fleet :INTRODUCTION OF A NEW PRODUCTDISSEMINATION IN THE CAR STOCK

25 to 30 years to transform the cars fleet :INTRODUCTION OF A NEW PRODUCTDISSEMINATION IN THE CAR STOCK

15 years15 years15 years15 years

25 to 30 years !25 to 30 years !25 to 30 years !25 to 30 years !


Reducing energy consumption in transport sector needs specific measures

beyond technological improvements…

-Urban transport of passengers : public transport infrastructures and urban planning, fiscal incentives, road pricing, land taxation…-Interurban transport of passengers : railway infrastructures and new services, taxes and pricing…-Interurban transport of goods : railway infrastructures, logistic services, responsibility of companies ordering transport-Urban delivery of goods : logistic services, urban planning

……Inducing new activities and new jobsInducing new activities and new jobs


Source INRETS Gallez 1995 pour l'ADEME

IMPACT OF URBAN DENSITY ON ENERGY AND COIMPACT OF URBAN DENSITY ON ENERGY AND CO22 FOR URBAN PASSENGER TRAVELS FOR URBAN PASSENGER TRAVELS

IMPACT OF URBAN DENSITY ON ENERGY AND COIMPACT OF URBAN DENSITY ON ENERGY AND CO22 FOR URBAN PASSENGER TRAVELS FOR URBAN PASSENGER TRAVELS

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000Inhabitant/km2

g/day*capita

Energy CO²

67 %67 %

79 '79 '

31 %31 %

92 '92 '

goe/day*capita

- Urban planning tools for local authorities - Urban planning tools for local authorities - Collective transports development- Collective transports development- Employees traveling plans by companies- Employees traveling plans by companies


IMPACT OF MAXIMAL SPEED OF CARS ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN URBAN AREA

Source INRETS

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260Maximum speed km/h

urban consumption l/100km

-Tax on vehicles (€/gCO2), incentives for efficient carsTax on vehicles (€/gCO2), incentives for efficient cars

- mandatory speed limitation at vehicle constructionmandatory speed limitation at vehicle construction


COMPETITION TGV / AIR PLANECOMPETITION TGV / AIR PLANE

EVOLUTION OF AIR TRAFFIC IN COMPETITION WITH SOUTH EST TGV

(operational in 1981)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

Lyon Genève Marseille Nice

EVOLUTION OF AIR TRAFFIC IN COMPETITION WITH ATLANTIC TGV

(operational in 1989)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

Nantes Rennes Brest + St Brieuc Lorient + Quimper

BASE 100 1972BASE 100 1972

TGV

-Railway infrastructure developmentRailway infrastructure development-Externalities internalization and cap on CO2 aviation emissionsExternalities internalization and cap on CO2 aviation emissions


COMPETITION RAILWAY / PLANE

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9time of travel from station to station (hours)

Sh

are

of

rail

wa

y

TGV

Source METLTM 2002

MODAL SHARE REGARDING TIME OF TRAVELMODAL SHARE REGARDING TIME OF TRAVEL


TC direct route

COMPARISON RAILWAY & ROAD TRANSPORTexample Paris<=> Toulouseexample Paris<=> Toulouse

COMPARISON RAILWAY & ROAD TRANSPORTexample Paris<=> Toulouseexample Paris<=> Toulouse

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

source UTI

Particules (g)

NOx / 100 (g)

COV / 10 (g)

CO / 10 (g)

Diesel (m3)

final energy (koe)

Rail-road combinedtransport

Source SNCF ADEME IMPACT

-Regulation of trucks drivers work conditionsRegulation of trucks drivers work conditions-Incentives for companies ordering transportIncentives for companies ordering transport


Potential modal shift for goods from road : 27% of domestic, 76% of export/import, 98% of Transit traffic Potential modal shift for goods from road : 27% of

domestic, 76% of export/import, 98% of Transit traffic

Source SES

20002000

Transport Combiné

??

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

t t*km t t*km t t*km

<150 km 150 to 500 km >500 km

A LARGE A LARGE POTENTIAL POTENTIAL MARKETMARKET

A LARGE A LARGE POTENTIAL POTENTIAL MARKETMARKET

-Highway taxation for trucksHighway taxation for trucks- harmonization of truck drivers working legislationharmonization of truck drivers working legislation


URBAN GOODS DELIVERY : IMPACT OF LOGISTIC

ORGANISATION

URBAN GOODS DELIVERY : IMPACT OF LOGISTIC

ORGANISATION

10 km 10 km

12 x 500 kg

SCENARIO 1 : PARALLEL DELIVERY

SCENARIO 2 : TURN DELIVERY

6 tons

5 km

Source Ademe

SCENARIO 2 : Division by 4 of COSCENARIO 2 : Division by 4 of CO22 emissions ! emissions !- Urban planning schemes- Urban planning schemes


Policies and measures in the transport sector will change the structure of related

activities

• Development of new functions in companies, local authorities and as new commercial services

• Strong potential development in the field of Information and Communication activities

• Large investment in infrastructure for the transition

• New industrial scheme for car manufacturers ?• New services for mobility ?

Transport policies and measures in EU to mitigate climate change

Documents

Transcript of Transport policies and measures in EU to mitigate climate change