Transport, Energy and CO2 in Asia: Where are We Going and How do We Change it?
-
Upload
embarq -
Category
Technology
-
view
1.231 -
download
2
description
Transcript of Transport, Energy and CO2 in Asia: Where are We Going and How do We Change it?
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Lew FultonInternational Energy Agency, Paris
www.iea.org
Better Air Quality Conference
12 November, Bangkok
Transport, Energy and CO2 in Asia:
Where are We Going and How do We Change it?
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
A talk in two parts
Where are we going?
How do we change it?
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 Baseline: Liquid Fuels to 2050
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
By so
urce
By se
ctor
By so
urce
By se
ctor
By so
urce
By se
ctor
mill
ion
ba
rre
ls p
er
da
y
Transport
Non-transport
Synfuels
Biofuels
Processing gains
Shale oil
Oil sands
Arctic/deep water
Conv. oil (other)
Conv. oil (OPEC)
2005
2030
2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA ETP 2008Baseline Transport Energy Demand Projection
About a tripling world-wide, 2005-2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Exaj
oule
s
Africa
Latin America
Middle East
India
Other Asia
China
Eastern Europe
FSU
OECD Pacific
OECD Europe
OECD North America
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA ETP 2008 - AsiaBaseline Transport Energy Use Projection
About an 8-fold increase, 2005-2050
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Exaj
oule
s
IndiaOther AsiaChina
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA ETP 2008 - AsiaBaseline Transport Energy Demand Projection
By Mode
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Exaj
oule
s
Aircraft
Shipping
Rail
2-3 Wheelers
Buses
Trucks
Cars
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
ETP vehicle ownership projectionsCars per 1000 as a function of GDP/cap
Personal income, thousand real USD (using PPPs) per capita
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
$0.0 $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0 $60.0 $70.0 $80.0
OECD North AmericaCanadaMexicoUSA
OECD EuropeFranceGermanyItalyUKOther OECD Europe
OECD PacificAustralia and NZJapanKorea
FSURussiaAsian TE
Eastern EuropeChinaOther AsiaIndiaMiddle EastLatin America
BrazilOther LA
AfricaSouth Africa
*Based on a scenario where ownership/income relationships in non-OECD countries track those in OECD countries; Income growth based on OECD/WB projections
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Ownership close-up for Asia
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
$0.0 $20.0 $40.0 $60.0 $80.0
Japan
Korea
Asian TE
China
Other Asia
India
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
ETP vehicle ownership projections Total car stocks by region
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
Other AfricaSouth AfricaOther LABrazil
Middle EastIndiaOther AsiaChinaEastern Europe
Asian TERussiaKoreaJapanAustralia and NZOther OECD EuropeUKItalyGermanyFranceUSAMexicoCanada
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Why should we care?1: energy security and balance of payments
International oil costs will account for transfers on order of USD 2 trillion during 2008
Dramatic price swings will probably continue
Consumers are unlikely to address the problem without government help Higher fuel prices will have only a small effect on
demand for vehicles We will need massive investments in efficient
transport infrastructure
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
2. IPCC: we need a global 50% CO2 cut by 2050 IEA ETP 2008: Where CO2 reductions come from
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
(G
t C
O2
/yr)
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
Baseline emissions 62
WEO 2007 450 ppm New ETP2008 analysis
Power
Industry
Buildings
Transport
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
ETP Scenarios: Transport CO2 Emissions
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
ETP and Modal ShiftETP does not include travel behaviour changes,
except some modal shift: Passenger – hold transit shares to 60% rather than drop to
30% by 2030, via strong BRT and NMT investments Passenger – high-speed rail investments sufficient to
induce a shift of 5% of highway trips and 10% of air trips to rail in 2030
Freight – rail investments sufficient to cut trucking over 750km by 25% in 2030
Net effect is a 20% reduction in car travel, 10% reduction in truck travel compared to baseline case in 2030 The problem is that travel increases 4-6 fold in baseline
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
Litr
es
pe
r 1
00
km
OECD North AmericaOECD Europe
OECD Pacific
FSU
Eastern Europe
China
Other Asia
India
Middle East
Latin America
Africa
MPG14.7
16.8
19.6
23.5
29.4
39.2
58.8
Vehicle fuel economy, new salesBaseline ETP
Fuel economy does improve in the baseline scenario, but not much after 2015
The new CAFE law in US and the Top runner in Japan are included. In Europe fuel economy reaches 130g CO2 per km by 2015
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
FSU
Eastern Europe
China
Other Asia
India
Middle East
Latin America
Africa
MPG
14.7
16.8
19.6
23.5
29.4
39.2
58.8
Vehicle fuel economy, stockBaseline ETP
New car improvements are passed on to the total stock, but stock turnover takes time
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Resulting LDV (Car, SUV) Fuel Use in Asian Regions
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
Billi
on li
ters
of g
asol
ine
equi
vale
nt
India
Other Asia
China
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
How LDVs can achieve large oil use and CO2 emissions reductions
Efficiency improvement generally is our cheapest option Clearly our most important near term option
Electric and hydrogen vehicles are important long-term options, but will take time Plug-in hybrids are a likely first step
Biofuels could be important, but only if sustainable and really deliver CO2 reductions – big questions
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
ETP 2008: Low Cost Transport Option
New LDVs can become 50% more efficient by 2030 In some countries, progress toward this 50%
target has already begun This is, very roughly, moving from 8 L/100 km to 4. EU
is already well below 8. Some individual vehicles, like Prius are there already
Involves maximum use of available technology, including hybrids
Important to constrain increases in vehicle size, weight and power
Plug-in hybrids may play a significant role if battery costs come down further
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA ETP 2008:New LDV Fuel Economy
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA Estimates: FE improvement potential in OECD Countries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Conventional Gasoline Vehicle
Advanced Gasoline Vehicle
Hybrid Gasoline Vehicle
Conventional Diesel Vehicle
Advanced Diesel Vehicle
Hybrid Diesel Vehicle
Perc
ent I
mpr
ovem
ent i
n Fu
el E
cono
my
(red
uctio
n in
fuel
use
) (L/
100k
m)
Based on an analysis of technology potential and current market penetrations for engines, drive-trains, components, weight reduction and aerodynamic improvements
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA Fuel Economy Estimates: Range of Technology Costs and Fuel
Savings per Vehicle
The fuel savings values in this figure can be obtained from the FE improvement estimates in previous figure and either of the following assumptions: a) fuel saved over 200k km of driving, oil at $60/bbl, no tax; or b) fuel saved over 100k km of driving, $100/bbl, $0.25/litre fuel tax.
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
Cost range
Fuel Savings
Cost range
Fuel Savings
Cost range
Fuel Savings
Conventional Gasoline
Advanced Gasoline
Hybrid
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
LDV Technology CostsETP: Net cost per tonne CO2
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
2015 2030 2050
Gasoline vehicle maximprovements
Diesel vehicle maximprovements
Gasoline Hybrid
Plug-in hybrid (opt)
Plug-in hybrid (pes)
FC Vehicle (opt)
FC Vehicle (pes)
EV (opt)
EV (pes)
more than $1000
Opt: optimistic, pes; pessimistic; based on $60/bbl oil and undiscounted vehicle and fuel costs
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
ETP: Cumulative Additional Investment and Fuel Savimgs
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
ACT Map
Blue Map
ACT Map
Blue Map
ACT Map
Blue Map
ACT Map
Blue Map
ACT Map
Blue Map
US
D t
rill
ion
(2
00
5-2
05
0)
Total
Biomass
Gas
Oil
Coal
Commercial
Residential
Transport
Industry
Distribution
Transmission
Power Plant
Transformation
Investment Fuel savings Total
Undiscounted 3% 10%
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Biofuels Use in BLUE Map26% of Transport Fuel Use in 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Biofuels Land Use in BluePerhaps about 150 million hectares worldwide
Based on yields for different feedstocks reported in literature; assumes 100% from agricultural/forest crops; other sources like residues would reduce land requirement.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
ConclusionsWithout policy interventions oil use in Asian countries
may expand by an order of magnitude by 2050Reduction in vehicle travel growth rates will be key,
via strong transit investments and comlementary measures
It appears reasonable to target a 50% reduction in vehicle energy intensity, on average around the world by 2030 However we need better data on baseline values and
current trends in individual countries
Biofuels, EVs, possibly FCVs will play a role; but extent and timing is quite uncertain for each