Transport Coal or Transmit Electricity? Comparative Hybrid LCA

Transport Coal or Transmit Electricity? Comparative Hybrid LCAJoule Bergerson, Lester Lave, Chris Hendrickson, Scott Matthews, Alex FarrellCarnegie Mellon UniversityThursday September 25, 2003

US Coal Supply and PopulationA ton of coal is shipped by rail an average distance of 800 miles

Life Cycle of Coal-Fired Electricity

Transmission

Distribution &Use

Coal Mining

Cleaning

Transportof Coal

-PM, CO and S-dust-erosion-waste-subsidence-safety issues

-PM, CO and S -waste

-coal dust-safety issues-road wear-coal losses

-PM, CO2, SOx, NOx-thermal discharge-ash sludge-water consumption

-resources (land, coal etc.)-equipment-labor

-water-equipment-labor

Generation

-rail system-locomotives -freight cars-fuel consumption-labor

-facility (materials, land etc.)-water-labor

-EMF-noise

-resources -structure materials-land -labor

ToolsLife Cycle Analysis SETAC Society of Environmental Toxicology and ChemistryBasic Framework for LCADisadvantage: Time consuming and costlyEIOLCA Economic Input-Output Life Cycle AnalysisUS I-O tables with Environmental ImpactsDisadvantage: AggregationIECM Integrated Environmental Control ModelCustomized power plant designDisadvantage: does not include all phases of life-cycle

Solution: Hybrid Approach

EIOLCA example: Transmission Construction1.Determine total economic input from sectorPrices Vary but $1 billion is a rough estimate

2.Find IO categoryOther new construction (110900) Major Group 16: Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction ContractorsSIC 1623 Water, Sewer, Pipeline, And Communications And Power LineTransmission line construction-general contractors

$ 1 Billion Other New Construction

EIOLCA Model

Output

EIOLCA OutputSource: www.eiolca.net

Base Case AssumptionsPower Plants identical (SUPC 40% efficiency, 75% capacity factor) Therefore base production ignored for comparison1000 MW (plus compensation for 7% transmission line losses)Approximately 1000 milesNo siting difficulties or grade crossing upgradesCapitalRail minimal new track capacity, new trainsTransmission new HVDC lines, substationsAmortized over life of investment (cost of capital 8%)

Base Case Economic Results

Chart2

1692

6821

83

71

991181113919

Rail

Transmission

Annual Cost ($ million)))

BCeconomics

Rail-+Transmission-+

Capital1692

O&M6821

Fuel/Coal83

Externalities71

Total991311118199

BCeconomics

00

00

00

00

001113919

Rail

Transmission

Annual Cost ($million)

BCenv

0000

0000

0000

0000

Capital

O&M

Fuel/Coal

Externalities

Scenarios

B-1 Summary of the Base Case Environmental Impacts for the Rail and Transmission Scenarios

Rail Scenario - Summary (metric tonnes)

SO2CONO2VOCPM10GWP (millions MT CO2e)CO2CH4N2OCFCs

2500016000760001300010000110001100000088000550001500

Transmission - Summary (metric tonnes)


520003600260005401700400004000000043000380800

Scenarios

2500052000

160003600

7600026000

13000540

100001700

1100040000

&L

B-1

Rail

Transmission

Emissions MT

MorePower

Rail-20%diff20%diffTransmissionTrans+/-20%Trans+20%0.2004662005

Base Case98118-0.20053374

New Construction011896.5144.321.526.3

29880.1810.2000101021119.77783405840.200000465211896.5144.3New Construction

511493.27271688280.2000001103139.33343582630.200000728211896.5144.3

10129105.54547349580.1999998222157.6667686620.200000640411896.5144.3

15146119.45456657510.199999825178.44460321660.200000880911896.5144.3

20178145.6364292840.1999995537217.55575463440.200000905911896.5144.3

Grade Crossings09880.18185494170.1999995461119.77783405840.200000465211896.5144.3

512299.81828105570.1999990158149.11118398520.200000483811896.5144.3

7132108.00001999360.1999998167161.33348365330.200000922411896.5144.3

9140114.5455052040.1999995622171.11114478850.200000194811896.5144.3

10146119.45456657510.199999825178.44460321660.200000880911896.5144.3

11151123.54547774680.1999998141184.55571141190.200000836111896.5144.3

Cost of Fuel$2/gallon108

$4.5/gallon130

$6/gallon143

$7/gallon152118

Cost of Capital3%9269

4%9378

5%9487

6%9597

7%97107

Grade Crossing

RailTransmission

Carbon Mgmt$5/ton

$10/ton

$15/ton

$20/ton

Environmental ExternalitiesBase Case98118

low est.102130

mean est.127160

high est.180207

Env Externalities

MorePower

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

00000

Rail

Transmission

Trans+/-20%

Trans+20%

-20%

20%

Fraction of System Requiring New Rail (%)

Annual Cost ($ million)

Sheet1

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

Rail

Transmission

Trans+/-20%

Trans+20%

Fraction of Grade Crossings Requiring Upgrade (%)


00

00

00

00

Rail

Transmission


Delivered Power (million MWh)Rail-20%20%Transmission-20%20%

Base Case6.69817.8181400111.384616606421.7778340584-1.27272573511821.4545378461.384615569326.2223068309-1.2727253528

Case 19.614025.4544947961.384616420931.1111447885-1.272726628617030.90896606531.384617487837.7777920808-1.2727270474

Case 21928050.90898959191.384616420962.222289577-1.272726628627049.09069004921.38461770860.0001287056-1.2727259963

Case 31201800327.27162331131.3846171411400.0017465759-1.27272467451600290.90832718761.3846167516355.55594044-1.2727266286

Case 42303700672.72538760831.3846168438822.2244869025-1.27272563383300599.9980057471.3846171153733.3355400896-1.2727254821

0021.777834058417.81814001126.222306830921.454537846

0031.111144788525.45449479637.777792080830.9089660653

0062.22228957750.908989591960.000128705649.0906900492

00400.0017465759327.2716233113355.55594044290.9083271876

00822.2244869025672.7253876083733.3355400896599.998005747

Rail

Transmission

Delivered Power (million MWh)


nFuel Price ($6-7/gallon)

nCost of Capital (3-4%)

nDistance (~700 miles)

nCarbon Management Tax (as little as $5/ton)

ScenarioBase CaseBreak Even Value

Fuel Price$0.9/gallon$6-7/gallon

Cost of Capital8%3-4%

Distance1000 miles~ 700 miles

Carbon Tax$0as little as $5/ton

Scenario: New Rail Construction

Chart2

9811896.5144.300

11411896.5144.380.181119.7778340584

12911896.5144.393.2727168828139.3334358263

14611896.5144.3105.5454734958157.666768662

17811896.5144.3119.4545665751178.4446032166

11896.5144.3145.636429284217.5557546344

Rail

Transmission

Trans+/-20%

Trans+20%

-20%

20%

Percent of System Requiring New Rail (%)


BCeconomics

Rail+-Transmission+-

Capital1692

O&M6821

Fuel/Coal83

Externalities71

Total991311118199

BCeconomics

00

00

00

00

001311199

Rail

Transmission


BCenv

0000

0000

0000

0000

Capital

O&M

Fuel/Coal

Externalities

Scenarios




2500016000760001300010000110001100000088000550001500



520003600260005401700400004000000043000380800

Scenarios

2500052000

160003600

7600026000

13000540

100001700

1100040000

&L

B-1

Rail

Transmission

Emissions MT

MorePower


Base Case98118-0.20053374



511493.27271688280.2000001103139.33343582630.200000728211896.5144.3

10129105.54547349580.1999998222157.6667686620.200000640411896.5144.3

15146119.45456657510.199999825178.44460321660.200000880911896.5144.3

20178145.6364292840.1999995537217.55575463440.200000905911896.5144.3

Grade Crossings09811896.5144.3

512211896.5144.3

713211896.5144.3

914011896.5144.3

1014611896.5144.3

1115111896.5144.3


$4.5/gallon130

$6/gallon143

$7/gallon152118


4%9378

5%9487

6%9597

7%97107

Grade Crossing

RailTransmission

Carbon Mgmt$5/ton

$10/ton

$15/ton

$20/ton


low est.102130

mean est.127160

high est.180207

Env Externalities

MorePower

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

00000

Rail

Transmission

Trans+/-20%

Trans+20%

-20%

20%



0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

Rail

Transmission

Trans+/-20%

Trans+20%



00

00

00

00

Rail

Transmission


Delivered Power (million MWh)RailTransmission

Base Case6.698118

Case 19.6140170

Case 219280270

Case 312018001600

Case 423037003300

00

00

00

00

00

Rail

Transmission



Scenario: Grade Crossings

Chart3

9811896.5144.380.1818549417119.7778340584

12211896.5144.399.8182810557149.1111839852

13211896.5144.3108.0000199936161.3334836533

14011896.5144.3114.545505204171.1111447885

14611896.5144.3119.4545665751178.4446032166

15111896.5144.3123.5454777468184.5557114119

Rail

Transmission

Trans+/-20%

Trans+20%

Percent of Grade Crossings Requiring Upgrade (%)


BCeconomics

Rail+-Transmission+-

Capital1692

O&M6821

Fuel/Coal83

Externalities71

Total991311118199

BCeconomics

00

00

00

00

001311199

Rail

Transmission


BCenv

0000

0000

0000

0000

Capital

O&M

Fuel/Coal

Externalities

Scenarios




2500016000760001300010000110001100000088000550001500



520003600260005401700400004000000043000380800

Scenarios

2500052000

160003600

7600026000

13000540

100001700

1100040000

&L

B-1

Rail

Transmission

Emissions MT

MorePower


Base Case98118-0.20053374



511493.27271688280.2000001103139.33343582630.200000728211896.5144.3

10129105.54547349580.1999998222157.6667686620.200000640411896.5144.3

15146119.45456657510.199999825178.44460321660.200000880911896.5144.3

20178145.6364292840.1999995537217.55575463440.200000905911896.5144.3

Grade Crossings09880.18185494170.1999995461119.77783405840.200000465211896.5144.3

512299.81828105570.1999990158149.11118398520.200000483811896.5144.3

7132108.00001999360.1999998167161.33348365330.200000922411896.5144.3

9140114.5455052040.1999995622171.11114478850.200000194811896.5144.3

10146119.45456657510.199999825178.44460321660.200000880911896.5144.3

11151123.54547774680.1999998141184.55571141190.200000836111896.5144.3


$4.5/gallon130

$6/gallon143

$7/gallon152118


4%9378

5%9487

6%9597

7%97107

Grade Crossing

RailTransmission

Carbon Mgmt$5/ton

$10/ton

$15/ton

$20/ton


low est.102130

mean est.127160

high est.180207

Env Externalities

MorePower

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

00000

Rail

Transmission

Trans+/-20%

Trans+20%

-20%

20%



000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

Rail

Transmission

Trans+/-20%

Trans+20%



00

00

00

00

Rail

Transmission


Delivered Power (million MWh)RailTransmission

Base Case6.698118

Case 19.6140170

Case 219280270

Case 312018001600

Case 423037003300

00

00

00

00

00

Rail

Transmission



Scenario Analysis - Other

Air Emissions (30 years)

Chart3

2500026000

160001800

7600013000

13000270

10000850

1100020000

Rail

Transmission

Emissions MT l

NewLosses




2500016000760001300010000110001100000088000550001500

RailTransmission

11537465RailGWP1155722440369372

39905570.304TransmissionCO21140391640288238

CH47915438963

0.289119159N2O849345

Transmission - Summary (metric tonnes)3.4587815055CFCs1645707


26000180013000270850200004000000043000380800

&L

B-1&CAppendix B - Base Case - Environmental Impact

NewLosses

00

00

00

00

00

00

&L

B-1

Rail

Transmission

Emissions MT

B

0000

0000

CO2

CH4

N20

CFCs

Emissions (MT CO2 eq.)

Comparison of GHG Emissions - Base Case - Project

B-1

Appendix B - Base Case - Environmental Impact

This includes:

B-1 Summary of the Base Case Environmental Emissions for the Rail and Transmission Scenarios

B-2 Description of the data used for the environmental emissions rail scenario base case

B-3 Description of the data used for the environmental emissions transmission scenario base case

B-4 Estimating the Environmental Externalities for the Base Case


This section takes the sum of the analysis in each scenario in order to compare the environmental emissions.

These emissions include greenhouse gases and conventional pollutants

The eiolca software was used to calculate all of these emissions excluding the power plant emissions (from the extra capacity required in the transmission scenario) and the combustion of the fuel in the rail scenario.

For the power plant emissions - IECM1 was used

For the diesel combustion the IPCC2 guidelines were used for the greenhouse gases and EPA emission factors3 were used for the conventional pollutants. (Note: various methods were used to estimate the emissions from diesel combustion. The results varied

Note: for these two cases some of the emission values are missing. The compounds that are missing are not considered to have a significant impact on the results.

The mining required for the additional coal in the rail scenario has been subtracted from the transmission scenario in order to reflect the net impact from the mining.

Each of these sections show the eiolca.net emissions expected for $1 million of activity in each of the sectors shown. These emissions are then multiplied by the actual amount spent in each of these sectors for the base case. However, the amount spent i

A total project duration of 30 years was used to calculate the emissions for the lifetime of the project.

B-2 Description of the data used for the environmental emissions rail scenario base case

This section is split into two sections - conventional pollutants and greenhouse gases

B-3 Description of the data used for the environmental emissions transmission scenario base case

This section is split into two sections - conventional pollutants and greenhouse gases

1 IECM. Integrated Environmental Control Model User Documentation, www.iecm-online.com; Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Carnegie Mellon University: Pittsburgh, PA, 2001.

2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Workbook. 1.5 - 1.8

3 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources. Locomotive Emission Standards: Regulatory Support Document, April, 1998.

4 Carnegie Mellon Green Design Initiative, Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment. (http://www.eiolca.net/).

&L

B&CAppendix B - Base Case - Environmental Impact

B-2-1




2500016000760001300010000110001100000088000550001500

RailTransmission

11537465RailGWP1155722440369372

39905570.304TransmissionCO21140391640288238

CH47915438963

0.289119159N2O849345

Transmission - Summary (metric tonnes)3.4587815055CFCs1645707


520003600260005401700400004000000043000380800

&L

B-1&CAppendix B - Base Case - Environmental Impact

B-2-1

00

00

00

00

00

00

&L

B-1

Rail

Transmission

Emissions MT

Comparison of Emissions - Base Case - Project

B-2-2

0000

0000

CO2

CH4

N20

CFCs

Emissions (MT CO2 eq.)

Comparison of GHG Emissions - Base Case - Project

B-3-1

B-2-1 Description of the data used for the environmental emissions rail scenario base case

Conventional Pollutants

Rail Capital Investment

(all in metric tonnes)$ 1 millionActual

SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10ActualSO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10

Rail Equipment3.74.42.40.940.00160.511696297394141590.2686

Coal Transport$ 1 millionActual


Fuel Consumption - burning the fuel68834124023842888.8(million gallons)6883412402384288

(oeko method)2379.525294000000ton km

Fuel Consumption - before the fuel is burned6.25.26.92.60.0002871.27.9494154200.00239.2

Maintenance$ 1 millionActualLong Way

SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10ActualSO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10

Rail Equipment (yearly investment in new trains etc.)3.74.42.40.940.00160.5111414827100.0175.680949825224260342

Other New Construction1.33.02.70.430.0006873.981124213.40.00531

Materials and other costs (steel foundries)3.48.23.11.30.00601.551741156.50.0307.5eiolca

Engineering Services0.700.700.570.180.0000890.09242.82.82.30.730.0003560.37Rail Related Services ($ 1million)3.323356.42177119.4260451.3856910.0002991.576698

SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10for $36.6 million122235711510.01094358

Total (yearly no capital)81050025004300.06340

Total Project (30 years)SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10

25000160007600013000210000

Note: Mining is not included in this scenario because the amount of extra mining that is required in this scenario (due to losses during rail transport) has been subtracted from the losses in the transmission scenario.

total for base case

61

Salaries and Benefits24.82

Equipment and Other Rents8.40

Capital Investment7.7919.74

Fuel and Utilities8.65

Materials and Supplies3.37

Other Costs7.96

&L

B-2-1&CAppendix B - Base Case - Environmental Impact

B-3-2

B-2-2 Description of the data used for the environmental emissions rail scenario base case

Greenhouse Gases

Rail Capital Investment

MT$ 1 millionActual

GWPCO2CH4N2OCFCsActualGWPCO2CH4N2OCFCs

Rail Equipment676615600.500.651691142331039131012585110

Coal Transport$ 1 millionActual


Fuel Consumption - burning the fuel (oecd)35284135041761318108.86436000000ton km35284135041761318100

IPCC method1129411525TJ

7008348

Fuel Consumption - upstream13161236750.753.67.91039397685915.929

Maintenance$ 1 millionActual


Rail Equipment676615600.500.6511743567646595.57.1

Other New Construction374339340.330.858299527122732.76.8

Materials and other costs (steel foundries)783707740.540.9053915353637235

Engineering Services188168190.150.184752674770.610.71

GWPCO2CH4N2OCFCs

Total3783323738712585182848

Total ProjectGWPCO2CH4N2OCFCs

110001100000088000550001500

Contributions to GWP%Contribution to GWP

Equipment Manufacture1038.4810388727CO21000007333333

Fuel Consumption99063.9019603856CH4800

Maintenance4117.5124088182N2O500

Total104219.895408077CFCs13.6363636364

Total101314

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B-4

B-3-1 Description of the data used for the environmental emissions transmission scenario base case

Conventional Pollutants

Transmission Line Construction

metric tonnes$ 1 millionActual


Engineering, Architectural and Surveying Services0.700.700.570.180.0000890.092$74.2525242140.0077

Trucking and Courier Services, except air1.528224.80.0002020.90$11.117306245530.00210

Iron and Steel Forgings4.35.93.40.720.00340.63$15628550100.0499

Aluminum Rolling and Drawing10204.71.50.00371.1$575711124265880.2161

Plastics Materials and Resins4.44.04.62.10.00100.792$3.4415141670.0033

Ready-mixed Concrete8.15.49.81.10.0005631.9$19.0153103187210.01136

Electrical Industrial Apparatus, n.e.c.2.23.02.80.700.000920.48$2124606285991490.20103

Plumbing Fixtures Fittings and Trim2.83.62.00.730.00440.43$2.8810620.0121

Lighting Fixtures and Equipment2.23.42.20.700.00110.38$1.234310.0010

Other New Construction1.33.02.70.430.0006873.9$32.6449687140.022128

Total1384242314993590.52358Long Way

4076586861020759

Additional Capacity$ 1 millionActual

SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10ActualSO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10eiolca

Other New Construction1.33.02.70.430.0006873.9$184246545493790.13721Rail Related Services ($ 1million)3.323356.42177119.4260451.3856910.0002991.576698

Coal Mining2.72.43.00.530.0003391.2$2.15.65.06.31.10.00071192.6for $36.6 million122235711510.01094358

Emissions from Additional Coal Burning16617841661784

Maintenance$ 1 million


Other New Construction1.33.02.70.430.0006873.9$5.06.715132.10.003420

SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10

Total (not including capital investment)1674208043.30.004122

Total ProjectSO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10

520003600260005400.771700

Note: The coal mining required in the rail scenario ($0.9 million) has been subtracted from the transmission scenario to reflect the net mining impact of the transmission scenario

Note: Some of the emissions due to burning coal have not been included in this analysis

51839.953561.229877791926099.9450832212535.61675385211745.5926263276

&L


B-3-2 Description of the data used for the environmental emissions transmission scenario base case

Greenhouse Gases

Transmission Line Construction

metric tonnes$1 millionActual


Engineering, Architectural and Surveying Services188168190.150.18$74139481249814261113

Trucking and Courier Services, except air185216681813.00.54$1120534184942007336.0

Iron and Steel Forgings1066972920.651.3$15155001413313331018

Aluminum Rolling and Drawing942850900.621.4$57535444831851123579

Plastics Materials and Resins141512861010.8128$3.4486544193462.897

Ready-mixed Concrete146013191381.22.1$19277232503726242239

Electrical Industrial Apparatus, n.e.c.634573600.520.91$21213454612157712666111192

Plumbing Fixtures Fittings and Trim547494510.470.47$2.8155013991451.31.3

Lighting Fixtures and Equipment573518520.462.0$1.2683618620.62.4

Other New Construction374339340.330.85$33121991104811121128

Total28509225754026832238477

Additional Capacity$ 1 millionActual


Other New Construction374339340.330.851846888662387628161157

Coal Mining852780710.510.622.1178916371491.11.3

Emissions from Additional Coal Burning1330186133018613301861330186

Maintenance$ 1 millionActual


Other New Construction374339340.330.855187216951711.74.3

GWPCO2CH4N2OCFCs

Total (not including capital)1333846133351832036

Total ProjectGWPCO2CH4N2OCFCs

400000004000000043000380800

&L


B-4 Estimating the Environmental Externalities for the Base Case

Base Case -Emissions (30 year project) tonnesExternal Costs ($)

Mean Estimated External Cost ($/tonne)*RailTransmissionRailTransmission

CO5201600036008.3E+061.9E+06

NOx280076000260002.1E+087.3E+07

SO2200025000520005.0E+071.0E+08

PM1043001000017004.3E+077.3E+06

VOC1600130005402.1E+078.6E+05

CO2e1311000000400000001.4E+085.2E+08

Total (1992$)4.8E+087.1E+08

Total (2000$) - using discount rate of 8%8.8E+081.3E+09

Annual Cost2.9E+074.4E+07


Max Estimated External Cost ($/tonne)*RailTransmissionRailTransmission

CO10501600036001.7E+073.8E+06

NOx950076000260007.2E+082.5E+08

SO2470025000520001.2E+082.4E+08

PM10162001000017001.6E+082.8E+07

VOC4400130005405.7E+072.4E+06

CO2e2311000000400000002.5E+089.2E+08

Total (1992$)1.3E+091.4E+09




Min Estimated External Cost ($/tonne)*RailTransmissionRailTransmission

CO11600036001.6E+043.6E+03

NOx22076000260001.7E+075.7E+06

SO277025000520001.9E+074.0E+07

PM109501000017009.5E+061.6E+06

VOC160130005402.1E+068.6E+04

CO2e211000000400000002.2E+078.0E+07

Total (1992$)7.0E+071.3E+08



* Matthews, H.S. Lave, L. Applications of Environmental Valuation for Determining Externality Costs. Environmental Science and Technology. Vol. 34. pp. 1390-1395. 2000.

&L

B-4

Comparative Annual Energy Consumption

Chart1

1.35

46.5

8.31.55

Rail

Transmission

Energy, CO2 Emissions, Fuel Costs)

Sheet1

Energy (10^12 BTU)CO2 (10^5 tons)Fuel Costs ($ 10^6)

Rail1.348.3

Transmission56.51.55

10133.1

Sheet1

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00

00

Rail

Transmission

Comparative Annual Energy Consumption

Sheet2

Sheet3

MBD00912336.xls

BaseCase

A-1 Base Case - Cost Estimates

RailTransmission

1000 MW plant

Cost TypeCostDetailsCost TypeCostDetails

Capital Cost for New Track (million)$53Capital Cost Transmission Line Construction (million)$942

Capital Cost for New Trains$124Captial Cost Additional Capacity Required (million)$184

Total Capital Cost (million)$176Total Capital Cost (million)$1,126

Interest Rate0.08compounded annuallyInterest Rate0.08compounded annually

Amortization Period30Amortization Period50FuelEnergyCO2$ millions spent on fuel

Amortized Annual Cost (million)$16Amortized Annual Cost (million)$92Coal - Base (million tons)Diesel (million gallons)Coal (BTU)Diesel (BTU)Total BTU(million tons)

Coal Required (base amount - tons)3290000Coal Required (base amount)3290000tonsTotal Power Plant + Transport/TransmitRail3.39.25.60E+131.30E+125.80E+138.784

Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$763290000Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$16Transmission3.9-6.70E+13-6.70E+139.720

Additional Coal Required (to compensate for losses)611000tonsJust energy to transport /transmitRail-9.2-1.30E+121.30E+120.48.3

Cost of Additional Coal (million)$3Transmission0.61-1.00E+13-1.00E+131.33.1

Sub Total (million)$91Cost of Operating and Maintenance$5

Fatalities Expected (operation)0.00

Cost of Fatalities (million)0.0Sub Total (million)$117

Fatalities Expected (rail deaths)1.17Fatalities Expected0.196

Cost of Fatalities (million)$6Cost of Fatalities (million)$1.02

Total Cost of Case 2 - Rail Scenario (million)$97Total Cost of Case 1 - Transmission Scenario (million)$118

Length (miles)Fraction LostRequiredTotal lineNet CapacityExtra Capacity Cost

10000.13911391160145184

9000.12611261150136173

8000.111140127161

7000.11120109138

6000.087110091115

4000.06210605469

2000.03710302735

LengthRailTransmission

100091117

90091110

80090104

7008897

6008887

5008778

4008775

2008362

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A-1&CAppendix A - Base Case - Costs, Assumptions and Data

900 miles


RailTransmission

1000 MW plant



Capital Cost for New Trains$124Captial Cost Additional Capacity Required (million)173

Total Capital Cost (million)$176Total Capital Cost (million)$1,050


Amortization Period30Amortization Period50

Amortized Annual Cost (million)$16Amortized Annual Cost (million)$86

Coal Required (base amount - tons)3290000Coal Required (base amount)3290000tons

Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$76Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$16

Additional Coal Required (to compensate for losses)611000tons

Cost of Additional Coal (million)$3







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800 miles


RailTransmission

1000 MW plant




Total Capital Cost (million)$159Total Capital Cost (million)$973














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700 miles


RailTransmission

1000 MW plant


















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600 miles


RailTransmission

1000 MW plant


















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500 miles


RailTransmission

1000 MW plant


















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400 miles


RailTransmission

1000 MW plant


















0.14

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200 miles


RailTransmission

1000 MW plant


















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Some Alternatives

Coal to Methane or HydrogenCoal Slurry PipelineAC TransmissionHigh Temperature SuperconductorsBarge and Rail

ConclusionsFrom the current case there is no economic/environmental gain in switching to minemouth generationSome scenarios change this resultCost and environmental emissions from existing system are significantOther methods of transporting energy should be investigatedContribution has been made from developing a method to compare alternative transport/transmission scenarios in terms of economic and environmental impact

Thanks to Support from.

My research looks at the economic and env differences between rail transport and electricity transmission and I used a hybrid comparative Life Cycle Analysis framework (which I developed) to do thisPut source on this!One of the major contributions of this paper is the development of the method for comparative LCA LCA important to look at all the impacts associated with a process or productTraditional life cycle analysis inputs/outputs mass and energy balanceHybrid approach makes use of eiolca to estimate some of the upstream impactsQuickly/easily get results defficiencies made up by more specific data e.g. IECMAssumptions made to build the two casesCosts estimatedCosts used in eiolca model to determine env. Impacts (links economic activity and emissions)Comparative Analysis cut things down even more Comparing two processes therefore anything that is the same can be left outCoal mining, cleaning and use phases will be the same regardless- because same coal, processed in same place-electricity consumed in TexasFinally, in both Tx and Wy, the strictest of env and water restrictions are expected for a new power plant, therefore the impacts and costs are expected to be the same. Therefore, this analysis focuses on the transport and transmission phases of the life cycle.

SETACInventoryImpactImprovement

EIOLCAlinksUS gov puts out IO tables 480 x 480UPSTREAM EMISSIONS FULL PICTURE

IECM Cost (Capitol, Operational)Technology (e.g. boiler type, efficiency, combustion type)Environmental ControlsWater consumptionHYBRID APPROACH combines best of all worldsThis method combines the benefits associated with the EIOLCA (Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Analysis) method as well as the traditional SETAC approach. The cost and environmental impact data available at a national, aggregated level (by industrial sector) is used in conjunction with a product analysis of more specific electricity generation scenarios.

Few of many these studies are full of assumptions therefore, these will be discussed furtherThese and other assumptions helped to build a base case-cost and environmental impacts were estimated -context of 1000 MW in terms of Texas % capacity and coal capacity - 55MW summer peak demandA little more than is currently connected to non ERCOT Expect 4% growth this is close to 2%

CapitalO&MSocial just construction and railTotal not practically different (within error)

Suggestions for breakdown of variable, fixed, marginal to fit this into the real world

% of 1000 miles new rail Base case 15 milesUpper and lower boundsBetween 10 to 15%

600 rail crossings from WY to TX Base case assumes 0Close to 10%

Change to table

ParameterNominalBreak Even ValueFuel etc.Remind audience of comparative

Transport Coal or Transmit Electricity? Comparative Hybrid LCA

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Transcript of Transport Coal or Transmit Electricity? Comparative Hybrid LCA