Transitions in Energy Systems - IIASAiiasa.ac.at/.../GEA_Chapter16.pdfSource: Walawalkar, 2008....
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© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 16, #1 A Dynamic Representation of the Multi-level Perspective on Transitions Transitions in Energy Systems
Transcript of Transitions in Energy Systems - IIASAiiasa.ac.at/.../GEA_Chapter16.pdfSource: Walawalkar, 2008....
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 16, #1
A Dynamic Representation of the Multi-level Perspective on Transitions
Transitions in Energy Systems
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Presentation Notes
Figure 16.1. A dynamic representation of the multi-level perspective on transitions. This perspective distinguishes between the micro-level of niches, the meso-level of socio-technical regimes, and the macro-level of landscapes. Innovations and experiments can only break through when there is sufficient pressure on the socio-technical regime. The small arrows at the bottom represent the niche innovations and experiments, which join together, become powerful (as in the thicker arrows), start influencing the socio-technical regimes, leading to major changes in technology, market and user practices, etc., and eventually become part of the landscape. Source: Geels, 2002. Regimes and niches develop in the context of a socio-technical landscape, which consists of both hard geographical features, such as resource availability and infrastructure, and “soft” elements, such as political conditions, societal trends, and economic fluctuations. The socio-technical landscape provides the exogenous environment for regime change and is a source of major selection pressures on prevailing regimes. Transitions, i.e., shifts from one stable sociotechnical regime to another, occur when regimes are destabilized through landscape pressures, which in turn provide breakthrough opportunities for niche innovations. Figure 16.1 visualizes the multi-level model. Patwardhan, A., I. Azevedo, T. Foran, M. Patankar, A. Rao, R. Raven, C. Samaras, A. Smith, G. Verbon and R. Walawalkar, 2012: Chapter 16 - Transitions in Energy Systems. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp.1173-1202.
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 16, #2
Matrix: Plausible Combinations of Hybrid Technologies
Transitions in Energy Systems
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Figure 16.2 | Matrix showing overview of commercialized, research and development stage, and plausible combinations of hybrid technologies, including storage. Source: Paska et al., 2009 . One interesting review by Paska et al. ( 2009 ) lists various hybrid combinations that are commercially available (see also Chapter 11 ), in development, or, at least, plausible ( Figure 16.2 ). Potentially, hybrid energy systems are proving capable of adding reliability and quality to the existing power generation system, particularly as renewable energy systems seem to offer distinct, technology-specific advantages. This approach can be extremely useful in addressing region-specific power issues. Patwardhan, A., I. Azevedo, T. Foran, M. Patankar, A. Rao, R. Raven, C. Samaras, A. Smith, G. Verbon and R. Walawalkar, 2012: Chapter 16 - Transitions in Energy Systems. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp.1173-1202.
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 16, #3
Variability in Daily System Load Curves for NY
Transitions in Energy Systems
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Figure 16.3 | Variability in daily system load curves for NY (using 2006 load data from NYISO). Source: Walawalkar, 2008. Although the present electric grid operates effectively without storage, cost-effective ways of storing electrical energy can help make the grid more efficient and reliable. The amount of load in most electrical grids changes from hour to hour and from day to day ( Figure 16.3 ). In most regions, system operators typically try to meet this demand by using least-cost economic dispatch, based on available generation and transmission. Electric energy storage (EES) can be used to accumulate excess electricity generated at off-peak hours and discharge it at peak hours, thus reducing the need for peak generation and reducing the strain on transmission networks. EES can also provide critically important ancillary services such as grid frequency regulation, voltage support, and operating reserves, thereby enhancing grid stability and reliability. Patwardhan, A., I. Azevedo, T. Foran, M. Patankar, A. Rao, R. Raven, C. Samaras, A. Smith, G. Verbon and R. Walawalkar, 2012: Chapter 16 - Transitions in Energy Systems. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp.1173-1202.
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 16, #4
Energy Storage System Ratings for Installed Systems
Transitions in Energy Systems
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Figure 16.4 | Energy storage system ratings (rated power vs. discharge time) for installed systems (November 2008). Source: Roberts, 2009. © Energy Storage Association. The EES technologies listed above and shown in Figure 16.4 are described in detail in EPRI ( 2003 ; 2004 ) and Gyuk et al. ( 2005 ). In general, large-scale applications of energy storage have been limited to the utility industry. Utility-scale projects based on storage technologies other than pumped hydroelectric storage have been built, though they have not become common. Patwardhan, A., I. Azevedo, T. Foran, M. Patankar, A. Rao, R. Raven, C. Samaras, A. Smith, G. Verbon and R. Walawalkar, 2012: Chapter 16 - Transitions in Energy Systems. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp.1173-1202.
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 16, #5
Passive vs. Active Management of Distribution Networks
Transitions in Energy Systems
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Figure 16.5 | Passive vs. active management of distribution networks. Note: BAU =Business As Usual. Source: Cossent et al., 2009 . These can be replaced with incentives that encourage distributed generation investments that achieve widely accepted societal benefits such as carbon reduction. The use of a more distributed power generation system will be an important element in protecting consumers against power interruptions and blackouts, whether these are caused by technical faults, natural disasters, or terrorism. Figure 16.5 proposes a Coordinated Centralized Control Mechanism for better control of grids that use distributed generation (Cossent et al., 2009 ). Patwardhan, A., I. Azevedo, T. Foran, M. Patankar, A. Rao, R. Raven, C. Samaras, A. Smith, G. Verbon and R. Walawalkar, 2012: Chapter 16 - Transitions in Energy Systems. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp.1173-1202.
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 16, #6
Distributed Generation Shares in Total Electricity Production, 25 EU Countries
Transitions in Energy Systems
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Figure 16.6 | Distributed generation shares in total electricity production in 25 EU countries (2004). Source: Cossent et al., 2009 . Nevertheless, many European Union countries have managed to achieve appreciable distributed generation contributions using renewable energies in their electricity supply. Figure 16.6 shows the percentage contribution of distributed generation in each EU member’s total electricity generation in 2004 (Cossent et al., 2009 ). Denmark scores the highest, with over 45% of its electricity coming from distributed generation resources. It is interesting to note that historical circumstances, next to favorable policies, have played a critical role in the success of distributed generation in Denmark, particularly the role of the cooperative movement in the Danish power industry (van der Vleuten and Raven, 2006). Patwardhan, A., I. Azevedo, T. Foran, M. Patankar, A. Rao, R. Raven, C. Samaras, A. Smith, G. Verbon and R. Walawalkar, 2012: Chapter 16 - Transitions in Energy Systems. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp.1173-1202.
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 16, #7
Dynamics in Socio-cognitive Technology Evolution
Transitions in Energy Systems
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Figure 16.7 | Dynamics in socio-cognitive technology evolution. Source: Raven and Geels, 2010. A further broader, more recent view of the role of niches in regime shift has led to the principle of multi-level perspective, which distinguishes three analytical levels. The niches form the micro-level, where the novelties emerge; the socio-technical regime forms the meso-level, which accounts for the stability of existing large-scale systems; and the socio-technical landscape depicts the macro-level, an exogenous environment beyond the direct influence of the niche and regime actors ( Figure 16.7 ). Patwardhan, A., I. Azevedo, T. Foran, M. Patankar, A. Rao, R. Raven, C. Samaras, A. Smith, G. Verbon and R. Walawalkar, 2012: Chapter 16 - Transitions in Energy Systems. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp.1173-1202.
