Transition Pathway towards China’s...Transition Pathway towards China’s Low-carbon Energy...
Transcript of Transition Pathway towards China’s...Transition Pathway towards China’s Low-carbon Energy...
Transition Pathway towards China’s
Low-carbon Energy Economy
Yuyan Weng
The 40th Annual IAEE International Conference
Singapore, 21 June, 2017
Outline
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
3. Assumptions
4. Scenarios
5. Main results
6. Conclusions
Introduction
• China’s low-carbon development is not only a necessity for theconstruction of an ecological civilization, but also a core strategy toaddress global climate change.
Improvement in Energy Saving and Emissions Reduction
• During the 11th and 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP) periods, China hastaken kinds of measures and actions, and has made substantialprogress in carbon emission mitigation.
China-in-Global Energy Model (C-GEM)
Modeling objective:
– To study the impact of China’s low-carbon policies on the economy, energy consumption and emissions both of China and the world;
Model Type:– Multi-regional, multi-sector, computable general equilibrium model;– Recursive dynamic, 2015-2100;
Special Features:
– A state-of-the-art global energy, environment, and economy assessing model built byChina;
– Describes in detail the energy intensive sectors such as the Iron and Steel Sector,the Non-Metallic Mineral Product Sector, and so on;
– Describes kinds of new energy supply technologies including wind power, solar
power, biomass energy, and CCS technologies and traces emissions of air pollutants.
China-in-Global Energy Model
19 Regions
Type Sector Description
Agriculture Agriculture (AGR) Crops, forest, live stocks
Energy
Coal (COAL) Mining and agglomeration of hard coal, lignite and peat
Oil (OIL) Extraction of petroleum
Natural Gas (GAS) Extraction of natural gas
Refined Oil (ROIL) Refined oil and petro chemistry product
Electricity (ELEC) Electricity production, collection and distribution
Energy-intensive
Industry
Non-Metallic Minerals
Products (NMM)
Cement, plaster, lime, gravel, concrete
Iron & Steel (I_S) Manufacture and casting of basic iron and steel
Non-Ferrous Metals Products
(NFM)
Production and casting of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, gold,
and silver
Chemical Rubber Products
(CRP)
Basic chemicals, other chemical products, rubber and plastics
products
Other Production
Food & Tobacco (FOOD) Manufacture of foods and tobacco
Mining(MINE)mining of metal ores, uranium, gems, other mining and
quarrying
Electronic Equipment (ELE) Electronic equipment
Textile Industry (TWL) Tex wap lea products
Transport Equipment (TEQ) Transport equipment
Other Machinery(OME) Other machinery
Other Industries (OTHR) Other industries
Construction Construction (CNS) Construction
Services
Transportation Services(TRAN) Water, air, land transport, and pipeline transport
Commercial and Public
Services (SER)
Commercial and public services
Dwelling (DWE) Dwelling
21 Sectors
GDP增速假定
GDP Growth Rate
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
China IMF-WEO
WB-GEP UN-WESP
OECD-EO EIA-WEO
OECD-EFS OECD-China EFS
EIU-ECF EU-EO
OECD-LBP ADB-ADO
IEA-WEO
The basic assumptions of China’s future GDP growth rate in this analysis.
On the basis of the study about economic structure of developed economies, this research
gives some estimation about the trend of economic structure of China in the future.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Agriculture Industry Service
Economic Structure
According to the World Population Prospects of the United Nations and National
Population Development Plan (2016-2030) released in January 2017,China’s population is
predicted to be 1.42 billion in 2020 and peak at approximately 1.45 billion around 2030.
Population Prospects
When the reduction rate of carbon intensity of one country reaches its growth rate of GDP,
the carbon dioxide emissions of this country will reach its peaking…...
Scenarios
Scenarios Explanation
4% of average annual reduction rate of carbon
intensity (CI-4%)
Compared with developed countries’ reduction
rate, this reduction rate is already relatively high.
Under this scenario, the carbon dioxide emissions
are expected to peak around 2030, realizing the
promise China made at Paris conference.
5% of average annual reduction rate of carbon
intensity (CI-5%)
This scenario simulates the future trend when
China keeps to continue the same efforts with the
past 10 years to reduce carbon emissions. Under
this scenario, the carbon dioxide emissions are
expected to peak around 2025, achieving to
realize the Paris promise early.
6% of average annual reduction rate of carbon
intensity (CI-6%)
This scenario is a more positive one which
surpasses the efforts China made in the past ten
years. Under this scenario, China’s carbon dioxide
emissions are likely to reach its peaking during
the Thirteenth Five Year Plan (13th FYP).
CO2 Emissions under Different Rates
of Carbon Intensity (CI) Reduction Scenarios
• Scenarios generated
using China-in-Global
Energy Model (C-
GEM)
• 4%/year is consistent
with China’s climate
pledge to achieve the
peaking of carbon
dioxide emissions
around 2030 under
“new normal”
economic growth.
• In current plans,
China is striving for a
5%/year carbon
intensity reduction.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Car
bo
n d
ioxi
de
em
issi
on
s (M
illio
n T
on
)
4%/yr reduction in CI 5%/yr reduction in CI 6%/yr reduction in CI
Energy Supply under Different Rates
of Carbon Intensity (CI) Reduction Scenarios
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
An
nu
al P
rim
ary
Ene
rgy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
10
0 M
tce
/Ye
ar)
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear power
Hydro power
Wind power
Solar power
Others
4%/yr reduction in CI
5%/yr reduction in CI
6%/yr reduction in CI
The Implicit Carbon Price to Enable the
Revolutionary Energy System Transition
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Car
bo
n p
rice
(U
S D
olla
rs/t
on
)
CI-4% CI-5% CI-6%
GDP Impact for China’s Low-carbon Transition
-2.50%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Bill
ion
US
do
llars(
Co
nst
ant
20
11)
CI-5% CI-6%
Conclusions
Three scenarios are designed to simulate China's low-
carbon energy economy transition pathways according
to different transformation targets using the China-in-
Global Energy Model.
The strength and depth of China’s low-carbon transition
will have a significant impact on the time of emissions
peaking, the quantity of carbon emissions as well as the
total primary energy consumption.
The economic impact of the transition is under control,
but the transition cannot be achieved spontaneously and
requires a strong policy to push.