Transition management yokohama
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Transition Management for Sustainabilityand the role of cities
Dr. Derk LoorbachLCSRnet, Yokohama, 22-07-2013
Dr. Derk LoorbachLCSRnet, Yokohama, 22-07-2013
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DRIFT• Dutch Research Institute For Transitions, Rotterdam
with 18 employees
• Established 2004 as part of the national transition research program KSI
• Action research institute; (international) fundamental and applied research, consultancy, academic/postgraduate education
• STRN: 600+ members globally
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SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITIONS?
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Persistent unsustainability
• Current socio-economic systems are inherently unsustainable– Economically, ecologically and socially
• Incremental improvement is not enough and CO2 is only one of the problems– Sub-optimization might make things worse
• Current crises are symptoms of non-linear systemic shifts happening– We need to consider these as windows of opportunity for
major change towards sustainability
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Symptoms of destabilisation
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transitions
Long-term (one or two generations) fundamental Long-term (one or two generations) fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in a change of structure, culture and practices in a societal (sub)systemsocietal (sub)system
– culture:culture: collective set of values, norms, collective set of values, norms, perspectives (shared perspectives (shared orientation), paradigms orientation), paradigms
– structure:structure: physical infrastructure, economic physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure, infrastructure, institutions, rules, regulations, collective institutions, rules, regulations, collective routinesroutines
– practices:practices: behaviour, operation, implementationbehaviour, operation, implementation
Periodic, non-linear systemic shift common in ecological and Periodic, non-linear systemic shift common in ecological and socio-economic systemssocio-economic systems
Paradigm to analyse and influence complex societal changeParadigm to analyse and influence complex societal change
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transition levelsMacro-level: landscapeautonomous trends, paradigms, slow changes
Meso-level: regimeDominant structure, culture and practices
Micro-level: niches innovative ideas, projects, technologies, niche actorsBased on Geels and Kemp, 2001
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transition phases
predevelopmenttipping phase
reconfiguration
stabilisation
Based on Rotmans et al, 2001
Sustainable Society?
enhanced lock-in
decline
Time
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Japanese energy transition?
Regime:High energy consumptionCheap prices
Nuclear and imported fossil
Landscape
Climate
change/polici
es
Resouce iss
ues
Demography
Economic
change
Niches: alt. Technologies, new practices and regulations (feed-in),
new business
?
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Sustainability and Transitions
• Transitions are rare but common processes and most likely do not automatically lead to sustainability
• Sustainability itself is inherently ambiguous, contested and uncertain
• It is about the process of sustainable development rather than the end goal
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GOVERNANCE OF TRANSITIONS
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Transition governance principles
• long-term long-term thinking as the basis for short term policythinking as the basis for short term policy
• thinking in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), thinking in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor), different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-different levels (multi-level)level)
• learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)
• orient governance towards system innovation orient governance towards system innovation besides system improvementbesides system improvement
• keeping options open, exploring multiple pathwayskeeping options open, exploring multiple pathways
• selective participation focusing on frontrunnersselective participation focusing on frontrunners
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Transition Governance Framework
Monitoring, evaluating
and learning
Institutional and
structural changes,
new networks/ coalitions
Breakthrough actions, projects and initiatives,
new organisations
Problem structuring, shared sense of urgency,
guiding visions
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Transitions…
Are not…
•Manageable
•Makeable
•Engineerable
•Predictable
Can be…
•Anticipated
•Influenced
•Guided
•Accelerated
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society
Transition arenasRegular arenas
- Short term- Peloton - Incremental change- Problem- and goal oriented
- Long term- Frontrunners - System-innovation- Problem- and goal searching
Transition arenas
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Transition Management Framework
Monitoring, evaluating
and learning
Developing images
coalitions and
transition-agendas
Mobilizing actors and executing projects and
experiments
establishment of transition arenas, shared problem definitions and
visions
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Transition
Networks
Transition Experime
nts
Transition
Arena
Phase IIIFraming the transition
Phase IVEnvisioning a
sustainable city
Phase VReconnecting long
term & short term
Phase VI
Going into action
Transition Team
Phase ISetting the
scene
Phase IIExploring dynamics
Phase VII
Engaging & anchoring
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Tools
SCENE patterns actor analysisproblem analysis
TRANSCEreflexive
monitoring
monitoringframeworktrans. indicators
MLP
DBUDeepening, broadening, upscaling
transitioning
actor selection
expert-arena
system analysis
arena
agendaexperiments
evaluation
TM multiple participatory tools
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URBAN TRANSITIONS
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Aberdeen
Ghent
Montreuil
Rotterdam
Ludwigsburg
Mitigation in Urban Areas, Solutions for Innovative Cities
5 local governments search for pathways to a low carbon future
Supported by two knowledge institutions: CRP Henri Tudor (LUX), DRIFT (NL)
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• Ghent, great place to live
• Locally creating added value
• Energetic city, intelligent cycles
• Ghentenaar home in the city
Transition arena Ghent (Belgium)
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20 cultural organizations
> 100.000 visitors
TransitionUniversity
Ghent
Researchbiogas from
biodegr.
Mobility arena
938 mobbers
Support for SMEs
Climate arena Ghent (Belgium)
Inspiration to political parties
CWG Urban Farming
CWG Energy Efficiency in business
CWG Valorisation waste water and biodegradablesCWG Art Sector
KWG mobiliteit
CWG consumer pusher market
KWG UGent
Assessment of
potential for
ESCO’s
CEIP meets GMS
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OUTLOOK
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New dynamics – new agenda
• Structural changes taking place requiring new strategies
• Scientific: understanding tipping points, selection, institutional change, …
• Societal: mobilising critical mass, destabilising unsustainable regimes, building new institutions
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Transition governance principles (acceleration)
• Coordination accelerating transition dynamics
• Guiding build-up towards sustainability
• ‘Controlled’ break-down
• Safe-guarding diversity and flexibility
• Dealing with/anticipating resistance and barriers
• Leading roles for transformative business, policy, research citizens, networks
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Tools TM 2.0tipping point
ethics
transitionpotential
community engagement
communiciation& discourse
financing (e.g. joint purchase)
empowerment
coalition building
business cases
cost-benefit
system analysis
arena
agendaexperiments
evaluation
TM
power analysis
institutionalization
power strategy
social movement
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The need for global transition governance
• Current progress is insufficient to meet global goals– Institutional and technological approaches do not deliver the space
and guidance for acceleration
• There is a need for more progressive, socio-economic and frontrunner oriented governance strategies– There are many positive initiatives and solutions but they do not
scale up
• The transition framework helps to enable research and governance for transitions but requires new roles– Challenge is always to adapt TM to context, this requires skill,
knowledge and competence
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Transition in roles
Transition Manageme
nt
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Thank you for your attention
For more information and publications:loorbach@drift.eur.nlwww.drift.eur.nlwww.transitionsnetwork.orgwww.twitter.com/drk75