Transition and Design
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Transcript of Transition and Design
September 1st 2008
Hans Schneider
Transition and designHow energy & climate change demand a differently designed world
September 1st 2008
Hans Schneider
Transitie en ontwerpHoe energie & klimaatverandering om een anders vormgegeven wereld vragen
Hans Schneider3 September 1st 2008
Outline
What do I do?
Crisis? What Crisis?
3 concepts: Evolution
Revolution
Transition / directed change
Some design challenges…
Why is energy saving so hard to achieve?
My design principles for energietransition
Wat doe ik zoal?
Crisis? Welke crisis?
3 begrippen: Evolutie
Revolutie / omwenteling
Transitie / gerichte overgang
Twee ontwerp uitdagingen
Waarom is energiebesparing zo moeilijk te realiseren?
Mijn ontwerpprincipes voor energietransitie
Hans Schneider4 September 1st 2008
Who am I?
Study: psychology Work: researcher (Leiden University), consultant (BuildDesk) Energy use:
5 person household (200 liters hot water each day) Bike, train, car, plain 4 computers, 2 tv-sets, 4 game computers, 2 routers, … Fridge, freezer, washing machine, dryer, 70+ lights bulbs
Hans Schneider6 September 1st 2008
What do I do for a living?
Research / advice on:
Energy saving in existing houses
Uptake of energy innovations
National & international policies
Impacts of climate change
Onderzoek en advies over…
Energiebesparing in bestaande woningen
Acceptatie van innovaties
Landelijk & internationaal beleid
Gevolgen van klimaatverandering
Hans Schneider7 September 1st 2008
Crisis? What Crisis?
Hans Schneider8 September 1st 2008
Crisis? Energy Crisis!
Climate change
Pollution
Damage
Cheap oil is running out
Klimaatverandering
Vervuiling
Schade
Goedkope olie raakt op
Hans Schneider9 September 1st 2008
Energy crisis climate change impacts
“French” climate in Holland
More heat waves
No more skating
Hans Schneider11 September 1st 2008
Energy crisis climate change impacts
More rain
More extreme weather
Sea level rise
Increased flooding risk
Hans Schneider13 September 1st 2008
Energy crisis climate change Hurricane Katrina
Hans Schneider14 September 1st 2008
Energy crisis climate change Katrina damage
Hans Schneider15 September 1st 2008
Energy crisis damage oil spills
Hans Schneider16 September 1st 2008
Energy crisis damage open mining
Hans Schneider17 September 1st 2008
Energy crisis End of cheap oil
Growing demand, shrinking supply
No short time alternative for traffic
Groeiende vraag, dalend aanbod
Voor vervoer op korte termijn geen alternatieven
$ 100-150?
Hans Schneider18 September 1st 2008
Energy crisis End of cheap oil
Hans Schneider19 September 1st 2008
So how can we change things?
Hans Schneider20 September 1st 2008
How change comes about
Change can come in several ways
Gradually, step by step
or
As a big sudden change
Undirected
or
Aimed
Verandering komt in soorten
Geleidelijke, stap voor stap
of
Als een grote plotselinge verandering
Zonder doel
of
Doelgericht
Hans Schneider21 September 1st 2008
Evolution:Step by step undirected change
Hans Schneider22 September 1st 2008
Evolution: a biological concept
Step by step change Undirected Survival of the fittest Specialisation
Stap voor stap verandering Zonder richting De beste overleeft Specialisatie
Hans Schneider23 September 1st 2008
Evolution: a industrial concept
Gradual changes Aimed on consumer demand Survival of the best selling Differentiation
Geleidelijke veranderingen Gericht op de consument De best verkopende overleeft Differentiatie
Hans Schneider24 September 1st 2008
industrial evolution guided by consumer tastes, gives us what we want, but not always what we need…
Hans Schneider25 September 1st 2008
Change by revolution: the digital revolution
Complete new solution
“invention” Needs different
infrastructure Makes the old
obsolete
Complete nieuwe oplossing
“uitvinding” Heeft nieuwe
infrastructuur nodig Maakt het oude
overbodig
Hans Schneider26 September 1st 2008
Technological revolutions give us completely new opportunities
…and consequences
Hans Schneider27 September 1st 2008
(R/E)volution of transportation More travelling
Longer distances
More commuting
Products from all over the world, allways available
Digital Revolution Information always available
24/7 services
Electrical revolution No more darkness
New possibilities… & consequences
Hans Schneider28 September 1st 2008
Most changes askfor MORE energy
Hans Schneider29 September 1st 2008
Let’s ask each other some questions
Hans Schneider30 September 1st 2008What is your favourite product?
Is it wired?Is it energy producing or consuming?
Can it do without energy?Or can it produce (more) energy?
How?
Wat is je favoriete product?
Zit er een stekker aan?Kost het of levert het energie?
Kan het zonder energie?Of kan het (meer) energie produceren?
Hoe?
Hans Schneider31 September 1st 2008 How do you cope with heat?
What do you do?What do you use?
Think of some improvements…
Is there a way to use or re-usethe heat that is bothering you?
Hoe ga je om met hitte?
Wat doe je?Wat gebruik je?
Bedenk een paar verbeteringen…
Kan je iets bedenken om die hitte te (her)gebruiken?
Hans Schneider32 September 1st 2008
Energy transition:enough, fair & clean in 2050?
Hans Schneider33 September 1st 2008
Transition management = directed change
If we don’t give change direction it will be “bigger, faster, further, longer” but probably not “cleaner” or “more sustainable”
Transition management
Where do we want to be in 50 or 100 years?
How can we avoid unwanted and help wanted outcomes?
How can we give direction to change?
Als we de verandering niet sturen, wordt het “groter, sneller, verder, langer”, maar waarschijnlijk niet “schoner” of “duurzamer”
Transitiemanagement
Waar willen we over 50 of 100 jaar zijn?
Hoe kunnen we ongewenste uitkomsten voorkomen en gewenste stimuleren?
Hoe kunnen we verandering richting geven?
Hans Schneider34 September 1st 2008
Transition problems
Some difficulties with transition
What will 2050 be like?We can’t predict the future!
What about existing cars, pipes, buildings ?We’re stuck with old stuff!
Who’s in power?Change is not in everyone's interest!
Problemen rond transitie
Hoe ziet 2050 er uit?Je kan de toekomst niet voorspellen!
Wat doen we met bestaande auto’s, pijpleidingen & gebouwen?We zitten opscheept met oud spul!
Wie is er de baas?Sommigen hebben geen belang bij veranderingen!
Hans Schneider35 September 1st 2008
Multiple futures, multiple solutions, multiple designs
Leave open different directions
Develop competing technologies & designs
Skip dead ends
Sta uiteenlopende oplossingen toe
Ontwikkel concurrerende technieken en ontwerpen
Verlaat doodlopende wegen
Possibility:Passive house
Possibility:renewable
energy house
Dead end:Deforestation for biomass energy
Hans Schneider36 September 1st 2008
Technology lock in: what about the old stuff?
But we have such nice…
Cars, roads, gas stations
Natural gas pipes & installations
refineries, oil tankers
Maar we hebben van die fijne..
Auto’s, wegen en pompstations
Gasleidingen & installaties
Raffinaderijen en olietankers
distribution Transport infrastructure Central heating pipes
Hans Schneider37 September 1st 2008
Who is in charge?
Existing oil industries are not likely to change
Already large investments made
Existing market position
Know how and money to maintain business as usual
Oil sands Coal-to-liquids
Oil industry preferences or electric alternatives?
Hans Schneider38 September 1st 2008
How to manage an energy transition?
Multiple solutions More efficiency AND green
power AND no-energy-solutions
Avoid technology lock in prepare for local energy
solution
avoid one-fuel pipes
Electric transport
Rearrange power Who is in charge?
Redirect money to new technologies and solutions
Meerdere oplossingen Efficiëntie EN groene energie EN
nul-energie-oplossingen
Voorkom techniek ‘lock in’ richt je op lokale energie
voorziening
voorkom pijpen waar maar één brandstof door kan
Elektrisch transport
Andere machtsverhoudingen Wie is de baas?
Laat geld naar nieuwe techniek & oplossingen stromen
Hans Schneider39 September 1st 2008
Why is energy saving so hard to achieve?
Hans Schneider40 September 1st 2008
Globalised expectations…
Always & everywhere 21 °C
Iceland, India, Netherlands
Car, offices, shops, houses
Global dress code
We forget how to protect ourselves against heat & cold…
Altijd en overal 21 °C
IJsland, India, Nederland
Auto, kantoor, winkel, thuis
Wereldwijde kledingvoorschriften
We vergeten hoe we ons tegen hitte en koude moeten beschermen…
Hans Schneider41 September 1st 2008
Modern city lifestyle asks for a lot of energy…
24/7 economy: shops, food, fun, work, transportation
Fresh food from all over the world
Fast connections
Anything you want…
Full time economie: winkels, eten, fun, werk, vervoer
Verse producten van overalter wereld
Snelle verbindingen
Alles wat je wilt…
Hans Schneider42 September 1st 2008
Some examples of solutions
Hans Schneider43 September 1st 2008
Solutions…
De kas als bron van energie en schoon water
Greenhouses as source of heat & clean water
Hans Schneider44 September 1st 2008
Solutions…
Train, car & living room will merge Trein, auto & woonkamer in één
Hans Schneider45 September 1st 2008
Solutions…
LED & daylight
LED energy use halves every 2 years
Long lasting
LED & daglicht
LED-verbruik halveert elke 2 jaar
Zeer duurzaam
Hans Schneider46 September 1st 2008
Solutions…
Low or no-energy design Weinig of geen-energie ontwerpen
Hans Schneider47 September 1st 2008
Can we design for a sustainable energy future?
Hans Schneider48 September 1st 2008
My guess for some design principles…
Seek parallel solutions
Add quality instead of quantity
Do not depend on complex or expensive infrastructure
Question existing powers & interests
Honour local solutions instead of global conformity
Use what is at hand: (waste)heat, daylight, gravity, wind, biomass, building materials, etc.
Verken parallelle oplossingen
Voer kwaliteit toe in plaats van kwantiteit
Wees onafhankelijk van ingewikkelde en dure infrastructuur
Wees kritisch tegenover bestaande machten en belangen
Respecteer lokale oplossingen in plaats van wereldwijde uniformiteit
Gebruik wat voorhanden is: (rest)warmte, daglicht, zwaartekracht, wind, biomassa, bouwmaterialen, etc.
Hans Schneider49 September 1st 2008
Thank youfor your attention