Transforming Ukrainian Society: Public Opinion on …razumkov.org.ua/upload/1467713464_file.pdf ·...
Transcript of Transforming Ukrainian Society: Public Opinion on …razumkov.org.ua/upload/1467713464_file.pdf ·...
A.Bychenko
Transforming Ukrainian Society
Transforming Ukrainian Society: Public Opinion on Current
Events, International Affairs and the War in Donbas
Andrii Bychenko, Razumkov Centre
(Kyiv, Ukraine)
Are things in Ukraine generally going in the right
direction or the wrong direction?
13,6%
70,9%
15,5%
In the right direction
In the wrong direction
Do not know
Are things in Ukraine generally going in the right
direction or the wrong direction?, %
A
pri
l 2
00
4
Ju
ne
20
05
No
vem
ber
20
05
Sep
tem
ber
20
07
Oct
ob
er 2
00
9
Ap
ril
20
10
Ma
y 2
011
Au
gu
st 2
01
2
Ma
y 2
01
3
Oct
ob
er 2
01
3
Ma
rch
20
14
Ma
rch
20
15
Ma
y 2
01
6
In the right
direction 20,3 42,6 18,3 15,2 6,9 35,1 15,2 19,7 15,4 15,4 32,3 14,3 13,6
In the wrong
direction 55,7 30,6 59,1 67,8 81,1 34,5 63,4 57,6 65,9 65,4 40,7 67,6 70,9
Do not know / No
answer 24,0 26,8 22,5 17,1 12,0 30,4 21,4 22,6 18,7 19,2 27,0 18,1 15,5
Do you support activities of the following authorities
and public institutions? (In percent)
Fully
support
Support
some
activities
Do not
support
Do not
know
President of Ukraine 5,9 29,9 56,3 7,8
Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) of
Ukraine 1,8 24,9 65,7 7,6
Government of Ukraine 2,5 24,9 60,9 11,7
National Bank of Ukraine 2,4 16,7 67,2 13,7
Level of support of Yuschenko, Yanukovich and
Poroshenko during the first two years
-80,0%
-60,0%
-40,0%
-20,0%
0,0%
20,0%
40,0%
60,0%
Start 3 months 6 months 9 months 12 months 15 month 18 months 21 months 24 months
Yuschenko Yanukovich Poroshenko
To what extent do you trust the following social institutions?
(in percent)
Do not
trust at
all
Tend
not to
trust
Tend
to trust
Fully
trust
Difficult
to say
The balance
of trust and
distrust*
Volunteer organizations 7.0 11.9 45.0 23.5 12.6 49.6
Church 10.7 13.4 39.6 22.0 14.2 37.5
Armed Forces of Ukraine 14.5 18.2 42.1 15.5 9.7 24.9
Volunteer defense detachments 11.6 15.3 33.1 14.2 25.7 20.4
National Guard of Ukraine 15.0 18.1 38.5 14.2 14.2 19.6
NGO’s 15.0 19.7 37.4 8.4 19.4 11.1
Ukrainian media 17.5 25.6 39.3 7.0 10.5 3.2
Police 17.4 24.5 34.2 6.5 17.5 -1.2
Local Authorities 23.0 29.5 32.5 5.4 9.7 -14.6
Ombudsman 21.4 20.3 19.4 3.6 35.3 -18.7
Western media 23.5 24.3 23.8 3.6 24.7 -20.4
Security Service of Ukraine 26.6 28.6 23.3 5.1 16.5 -26.8
National Anticorruption Bureau 32.2 27.1 12.5 2.0 26.1 -44.8
President of Ukraine 41.5 30.9 16.9 3.1 7.7 -52.4
Banks 44.2 28.2 12.9 2.9 11.8 -56.6
Government of Ukraine 46.5 32.0 11.2 1.7 8.7 -65.6
Political Parties 43.9 34.4 9.0 0.7 12.0 -68.6
Office of the Prosecutor General 51.4 28.8 7.9 2.2 9.7 -70.1
Parliament of Ukraine 48.9 34.3 9.8 1.2 5.7 -72.2
Courts 57.0 26.5 5.3 1.7 9.6 -76.5
Please rate the course of reforms in Ukraine and the government's
actions in various areas on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is no or
almost no reforms, and 10 is most successful reforms
Areas of reform AVERAGE
RATING
March
2015
AVERAGE
RATING
May 2016
Promoting Ukraine in the world 4.00 4.11
Reform of the law enforcement system 2.60 3.72
National security and defence reform 2.95 3.62
Decentralisation and local government reform 2.53 3.01
Renewal of the government and lustration 2.90 2.77
Energy independence programme and energy sector reform 2.45 2.65
Public administration reform 2.44 2.55
Education reform 2.35 2.55
Tax reform 2.38 2.44
Deregulation and business development 2.27 2.39
Judicial reform 2.39 2.35
Reform of public property management 2.21 2.35
Agricultural reform 2.15 2.29
Financial sector reform 2.12 2.26
Healthcare reform 2.23 2.24
Which direction of foreign policy should be a priority
for Ukraine?
49,8%
5,4%
10,4%
7,7%
7,8%
18,9%
Relations with the European Union countries
With the U.S.
With Russia
With other CIS countries
With other countries
Do not know
Which direction of foreign policy should be a priority
for Ukraine? (in percent)
Feb
2011
Nov
2012
Dec
2013
March
2014
April
2014
March
2015
April
2016
Relations with the
European Union
countries
35,6 40,8 43,4 46,0 52,5 47,7 49,8
With the U.S. 0,9 1,2 1,0 2,1 1,1 6,0 5,4
With Russia 40,4 35,3 34,0 24,1 16,6 10,0 10,4
With other CIS
countries 7,2 4,8 5,7 5,7 6,8 6,7 7,7
With other countries 3,6 3,6 2,7 4,4 4,8 9,1 7,8
Do not know 12,3 14,3 13,2 17,7 18,1 20,5 18,9
For each organisation or state, please tell me how
positive or negative your attitude is:
(in percent)
Absolutely
positive
Mostly
positive
Mostly
negative
Absolutely
negative
Do
not
know
about
it
Do
not
know
Balance
European Union 16.3 45.7 14.3 8.2 0.3 15.2 39.5
Customs Union 5.7 21.0 22.5 28.8 0.7 21.4 -24.6
International
Monetary
Fund (IMF)
9.6 29.4 20.2 14.4 1.4 24.8 4.4
NATO 15.0 30.4 18.2 18.4 0.3 17.7 8.8
Russia 5.8 16.4 19.6 46.4 0.5 11.2 -43.8
USA 14.8 40.9 19.4 10.0 0.0 14.9 26.3
Do you think Ukraine should join the European Union?
(In percent)
Dec 2009 Dec 2011 Aug
2012
Dec
2013
May
2014
March
2015
May
2016
Yes 42,8 46,0 42,1 48,0 53,0 52,7 59,4
No 32,8 32,9 38,6 35,9 35,5 29,6 28,5
Difficult
to say 24,3 21,1 19,3 16,1 11,6 17,7 12,1
If on Sunday there was a referendum on joining NATO,
how would you vote?
47,8%
34,3%
17,9%
For joining NATO
Against joining NATO
Do not know
With which opinions and assessments
about the situation in Eastern Ukraine do
you agree the most?
(Answers to follow on next two slides)
Opinion on the DPR and LPR
62,2%
20,6%
17,1%
DPR and LPR are terrorist organisations that have no rightto represent the people of these areas
DPR and LPR are representatives of the people of theseareas
Do not know
Opinion on Russia's position in the conflict in Eastern
Ukraine
70,3%
11,9%
17,8%
Russia is an aggressor country, a party to theconflict
Russia is not involved in the events inEastern Ukraine, and is not a party to theconflict
Do you support assignment of special status to
Donbas?
23,8%
56,4%
19,8%
Support Do not support Do not know
Do you support elections on occupied areas of Donbas
before establishing control of Ukrainian Authorities?
23,0%
52,5%
24,4%
Support Do not support Do not know
Do you support amnesty to participants of separatist
detachment who doesn’t commit a serious crime?
31,2%
42,3%
26,6%
Support Do not support Do not know
The ways to resolve the conflict in Eastern Ukraine
19,8%
47,7%
32,4%
Special status for Donbas, amnesty to participants of separatist detachments who doesn’t commit serious crimes, elections before establishing Ukrainian Authority
Official acceptance this area as occupied and thir blockade untill establishingUkrainian Authority
Do not know
Do you support the severance of any economic relations between
Ukraine and the areas of DPR and LPR (including social benefits,
energy supply, coal procurement, etc.) until Ukraine fully regains
control over these areas?
45,9%
33,3%
20,8%
Support Do not support Do not know
How would you evaluate the current outcome of the Minsk agreements
regarding the situation in Donbas?
15,4%
34,8%
26,0%
11,2%
12,6%
Positively Negatively
Neutrally Know nothing about them
Do not know
In your opinion, should Crimea be a part of Ukraine, a part of
Russia or an independent state?
7,2%
68,6%
12,4%
11,8%
Part of Russia Part of Ukraine
Independent state Do not know
In your opinion, is it possible to return Crimea to Ukraine?
22,3%
32,1%
24,2%
13,3%
8,1%
It's possible It's possible but in a long time
It's hardly possible It's impossible
Do not know
Do you consider you are first of all:
(In percent)
December
2013
December
2014
May 2016
Inhabitant of your city, town or
village
24,3 12,3 18,6
Inhabitant of your region 11,0 6,8 7,9
Citizen of Ukraine 54,2 73,2 64,4
Representative of your ethnicity 2,0 1,3 1,8
Citizen of Russia - 0,1 2,0
Citizen of former USSR 3,2 2,9 0,1
Citizen of Europe 2,5 0,9 1,8
Citizen of the World 2,3 1,9 2,1
Other 0,1 0,6 0,3
Today’s Data
Based on Surveys • Conducted by the Sociological Service of the
Razumkov Centre in 2016.
• The sample of each survey consisted of more
than 2,000 respondents.
• All regions of Ukraine, except Crimea and the
occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk
Oblasts.
• Sampling error (without design effect) is less
than 2.3% with a probability of 0.95.