Dr. Hans R. Herren President Millennium Institute Founder & Chairman of Biovision Foundation hh@millennium-institute.org

Transforming Agriculture: Why, How, Who , When

International Workshop of the RLC Food security and sustainable agriculture: The future of Smallholder Farmers? Bonn May 30 June 4, 2015

Overview

1. Transforming agriculture and the Food System: from brown to green: why (today’s situation)

2. How (what do we know already): challenges and solutions for the needed transformation of global agriculture and food systems

3. Who and when

IAASTD – Report

Co-Chairs: Hans R Herren & Judy Whakungu www.globalagriculture.org

“Business as usual

is not an option”

The global agriculture & food situation • 800 million undernourished – 1.5 billion obese – 300 million

diabetes type 2 cases, etc. => health problem

• The industrial/conventional food system uses 10 kcal to produce 1 => energy problem

• The industrial/conventional food system is a major part of the climate change problem

• Soil degradation, water shortages, biodiversity loss underlie food insecurity => natural resource problem

• Industrial/conventional agriculture has emptied the rural areas instead of providing quality jobs, access to land => social problem

David Tilman et al. Science 2001

….a food system that is not sustainable

What is and what is not sustainable in agriculture and food systems?

Brown Green

David Tilman et al. Science 2001

The main problems (too much external / non renewable inputs)

UNEP 2012

…replacing nature with business – a bad idea

The main problem (too much damages)

Grain Unctad 2011

The main problems (too much GHG)

The main problems (too much production, too much waste)

Understanding the consequences: CC and water / temperature stresses

-50% -15% 0%

+35% +15% 2080

• A fundamental shift in Agricultural Knowledge Science and Technology and => agri-food system policies (UNSG), => institutions => capacity development => investments (UNCTAD)

• Paradigm change: transition to sustainable / ecological agriculture addressing the multi-functionality and resilience needs of small-scale and family farmers (eco-intensification, vs smart)

• Need to use a systemic and holistic approach / National multistakeholder assessments (IAASTD)

13

The main solutions

The 3 +1 dimensions of sustainable development

Sustainable & Resilient

viable

livable equitable

Environment Economic

Social Governance

Sustainable Un-sustainable

Low

pro

duct

ivity

H

igh

pro

duct

ivity

The main solutions: 1. Paradigm shift / all inclusive

Encouraging a wider genetic base in agriculture…trees, fruits, grains, vegetables, lost crops, animals

for nutrition and health, cultural diversity, incomes, pest control, resilience to climate change

The main solution: 2. More diversity in the plate, true costing

Barilla, 2011

The main solutions: 3. Closing the yield gap….but only the right way!

Increase soil structure/ air spaces / SOM-SOC

• Turn the nitrogen in the air into nitrate and ammonium (air is 78% N)

• Soil carbon dioxide increases plant growth • SOM helps plant and microbial growth through

growth stimulating compounds • Helps root growth, by making it easy for roots to

travel through the soil • Improves growth through easy access to deep

nutrients and water

The main solutions: 3: Improving soil fauna and flora, ie, organic matter

After Andre Leu 2014

After Andre Leu 2014 Bhutan

1 % SOM = 160,000 litres (common level) 5 % SOM = 800,000 litres (levels pre farming) Per ha (to 30 cm)

The main solutions: 3: Improving soil fauna and flora, ie, organic matter

Organic Conventional In 1995 –drought year

The main solutions: it’s the soil stupid!

Organic Conventional In 1995 –drought year

The main solutions: 3: SOM

Organic Conventional

In 1995 –drought year Conventional Organic Picture: FiBL DOK Trials

The main solutions: 3: SOM

The main solutions: 3: pests, weeds and soil fertility

The main solutions: 3. Healthy animals (on farm, not in factories)

The main solutions: 3. Agronomic practices SRI

The main solutions: 3. Biological / natural pest and disease control

The main solutions: 3. promotion of pollinators

The main solutions: 3. GMOs?...for what exactly? (cause vs symptom)

David Quist, 2010 pers com

The main solutions: 3. genetic diversity, quo vadis?

The main solutions: 3. genetic diversity, quo vadis?

FAO, 2014

The main solutions: 4. Smallholder farmers

FAO, 2014

The main solutions: 4. Smallholder vs industrial farmers (who does better?)

….low external vs high external inputs (1)

MI, 2013

• Improve, expand extension services and capacity bldg

• Strengthen Institutions

• Emphasize local solutions; Women and Youth

The main Solutions: 5. R&D & Edu

Global investments across sectors (2% of GDP, Stern report); 0.16% of GDP (141 Bn $/year) invested in agriculture for:

- Pre harvest losses (training activities and effective pest management with bio-products, IPM) - Ag management practices (cover transition costs from till to no till, organic, agroecological agriculture, training, access to small scale mechanization and irrigation) - R&D (research in soil biology and agronomy, crop improvement (orphan crops), appropriate mechanization, irrigation, and more) - Food processing (better storage and processing in rural areas, efficient processing, marketing, less waste)

A systems model for the transition: scenarios from the UNEP GER ag chapter 2011

Is such a transition possible and how?

… the numbers: we can win-win-win by 2050

Indicator Unit Baseline Green BAU

Agricultural production

Bn US$/year 1’921 2’852 2’559

Crops Bn US$/year 629 996 913

Employment M people 1’075 1’703 1’656

Soil quality Dmnl 0.92 1.03 0.73

Water use Km3 / year 3‘389 3‘207 4‘878

Land Bn ha 1.2 1.26 1.31

Deforestation M ha/ year 16 7 15

Calories for consumption

Kcal/person/day

2‘081 2‘524 2‘476

Source: UNEP Green Economy Report (2011)

Investing 0.2% of total GDP ($141 Billion) / year

1 2

-1

2

-5

0

10 4

-9

8

-13 -18

31

8

-26

12

-20

-44 -45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Real GDP Employment % Poverty Nutrition Water stress Footprint/biocapacity

%

2015 2030 2050

… the numbers: we can win-win-win by 2050

§115 „We reaffirm the important work and inclusive nature of the Committee on World Food Security, including through its

role in facilitating country-initiated assessments on sustainable food production and food security“

Changing course in global agriculture:

«The Future We Want» (Rio+20 Declaration) recognized • the fact that «a significant portion of the world’s poor live in

rural areas» • the role that agriculture plays in development • the importance and utility of a set of Sustainable Development

Goals (SDGs); • and reaffirmed the necessity to promote, enhance and support

more sustainable agriculture

The main solutions: System’s approach to problem analysis and solving

Global Warming

Energy Sector

Human Population

Food Production

Fresh Water

Migration

Health Catastrophes

Land Loss & Flooding

PlantCalories

MeatCalories

PlantConsumption

MeatConsumption

MeatProduction

PlantProduction

SoilCapacity Soil Nutient

ConsumptionSoil NutrientProductioin

Plant Calories forMeat Production

S

S

HumanPopulationHuman

BirthsHumanDeaths

Plant Calories forHuman Use

S

S

Calories perCapita

O

S

Life SustainingCalories per Capita

CalorieGapHabitat

Conversion

Acres inAgriculture

O

S

S

S

S

S

S

FertilizerDemand

S

S

O

Petroleum Use forFertilizer

S

S ToxicResidue

S

O

R

OPopulation

Density

Migration

Pursuit of 1st WorldFood Mix

Exposure to a HigherStandard of Living

MethaneProduction

S

S

S

S

S

S

WaterDemand

S

FaminesO

S

RB

B

S

Irrigation

SoilSalinization

S

S

O

S

BiofuelsProduction

Land Loss

GlobalTemperature

Variation in RainfallPattern

Droughts

S

S

S

O

O

O

policy variables

environmental resources

external input

economic resources

social resources

food andnutritionsecurity

food access

food availability

food use

crop and animal foodproductioncrop area

income

access to market /market information

investment ineconomic

factors

investment insocial factors

biodiversity

soil organicmatter

soil nutrients

water

agriculturalmachinery

infrastructure

energy

r & dresources

health

agricultureknowledge

education

fertilizerssynthetic /

organicpesticideschemical /biological

private expenditure

forest area

resourcesdistribution

incomedistribution monetary

ruralpoverty

processingcapacity

publicexpenditure

solar radiation

temperature

pasture area

storage capacity

atmosphere co2

external seedsand feeds

expenditure forexternal input

plant andanimal health

climate stability

irrigation

input prices

land tenurequality

genderparity

food aid

net import

foodprice

access tocredit

saving

governance

populationemployment

fooddemand

farmer'sorganization

expenditure forenvironmental factors

equity policiesgenderpolicies

access to socialservices

productionloss

intermediateconsumption

urbanization

urban-ruralremittances

s

policy variables

environmental resources

external input

economic resources

social resources

food andnutritionsecurity

food access

food availability

food use

crop and animal foodproductioncrop area

income

access to market /market information

investment ineconomic

factors

investment insocial factors

biodiversity

soil organicmatter

soil nutrients

water

agriculturalmachinery

infrastructure

energy

r & dresources

health

agricultureknowledge

education

fertilizerssynthetic /

organicpesticideschemical /biological

private expenditure

forest area

resourcesdistribution

incomedistribution monetary

ruralpoverty

processingcapacity

publicexpenditure

solar radiation

temperature

pasture area

storage capacity

atmosphere co2

external seedsand feeds

expenditure forexternal input

plant andanimal health

climate stability

irrigation

input prices

land tenurequality

genderparity

food aid

net import

foodprice

access tocredit

saving

governance

populationemployment

fooddemand

farmer'sorganization

expenditure forenvironmental factors

equity policiesgenderpolicies

access to socialservices

productionloss

intermediateconsumption

urbanization

urban-ruralremittances

s

Politische Massnahmen Evaluation des

Nahrungssystems durch systemdynamische

Modelle

international

Committee on

World Food Security (CFS)

Sustainable Development

Goals (SDGs)

Changing course of global agriculture

national

Implementing the CCGA Multi-stakeholder Assessments (KEN/SEN/ETH)

….new problems

Thank you!

Thank you www.millennium-institute.org hh@.millennium-institute.org

The time to act is now….and please in the right direction. We have the evidence, the solutions and the means……