Trajectories to Extinction Savrina Carrizo Dr Nick Isaac, Dr Michael Brooke and Dr Kate Jones...
30
Trajectories to Extinction Savrina Carrizo Dr Nick Isaac, Dr Michael Brooke and Dr Kate Jones Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE
-
Upload
ryan-carney -
Category
Documents
-
view
218 -
download
4
Transcript of Trajectories to Extinction Savrina Carrizo Dr Nick Isaac, Dr Michael Brooke and Dr Kate Jones...
Trajectories to ExtinctionSavrina Carrizo
Dr Nick Isaac, Dr Michael Brooke and Dr Kate Jones
Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UKDepartment of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE
Outline
• Research plan
– Spatial patterns of population decline
Outline
• Research plan
– Spatial patterns of population decline
– Spatial patterns of population expansion
Outline
• Research plan
– Spatial patterns of population decline
– Spatial patterns of population expansion
– Shifting geographic ranges due to climate change
Population decline
• How do populations decline?
t0 tn
extinction
healthy populationnumber of individuals
Population decline
• How do populations decline?
t0 tn
healthy population
extinction
number of individuals
local abundance
Population decline
• How do populations decline?
t0 tn
extinction
healthy populationnumber of individuals
local abundance
number of populations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
Year
Count
Population decline
Northern Bobwhite Colinus virginianus
USGS BBS (2005) & Cornell Lab of Ornithology (2003)
Data source
Spatial patterns of decline
Spatial patterns of decline
• Macro-ecological patterns of population decline can inform conservation strategies
?
Spatial patterns of decline
• How do occupancy and abundance structure change with declining populations?
Spatial patterns of decline
time
abundance
occupancy
Spatial patterns of decline
time
occupancy
abundance
Spatial patterns of decline
• There are several scenarios of population decline
• Explore correlates of these patterns e.g. land use change
• Monitoring strategies
occupancy
abundance
Monitoring strategies
• What kind of monitoring strategies will be most effective in detecting different spatial patterns of population decline?
Monitoring strategies
• Mongolia: 79% of large herbivores and 12% of carnivores are declining and threatened with extinction
Monitoring strategies
• Wild camels – only 460 individuals
• Gobi bear – less than 50 individuals
• Red deer – 92% decline in 18 years
Expanding species
Ash-throated Flycatcher Myiarchus cinerascens
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
Year
Count
USGS BBS (2005) & Cornell Lab of Ornithology (2003)
Management of invasive species
• The flip-side of the same spatial patterns can be applied to understanding the expansion of invasive populations
occupancy
abundance
Management of invasive species
Management of invasive species
Management of invasive species
•Landscape approach
Management of invasive species
Management of invasive species
•Landscape approach
Management of invasive species
•Landscape approach
Management of invasive species
•Landscape approach •Targeted approach
Are species ranges shifting North?
• Centre of gravity
• Boundaries
Summary
• Macro-ecological spatial patterns can provide insight into
– population decline
– population expansion
– shifting geographic ranges due to climate change
• Applications
– Conservation strategies
– Modelling species future ranges
Acknowledgements
Cambridge Commonwealth Trusts Poynton Australia Scholarship
Supervisors:Dr Michael Brooke Dr Nick Isaac Dr Kate Jones
THANK YOU!
