Traffic Survey and Forecast of East Intercahnge in Ulanbaatar
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Transcript of Traffic Survey and Forecast of East Intercahnge in Ulanbaatar
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CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST
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CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST
There are approximate traffic forecast, direct demand model and 4 step approach
method in traffic forecast. The Consultant forecasted the future traffic with past
trend extension method of approximate traffic forecast because the project area
is small (only one intersection), project period is short and the survey data of OD
(Origin-Destination) for each traffic zones was insufficient. The traffic forecast
for each direction on the most concentrated traffic time of 2031 was forecasted
with present condition.
3.1 Traffic Forecasting Method
There are approximate traffic forecast, direct demand model and 4 step approach
method in traffic forecast. Approximate traffic forecast is used for the small area
or when the collect of data is difficult and it has past trend extension method and
demand flexibility method. Direct demand model and 4 step approach method
are used for accurate forecast in large scaled area.
The project area is small (only one intersection) and the survey data of traffic
pattern and OD (Origin-Destination) for each traffic zone was insufficient, so the
Consultant applied future traffic with past trend extension method of
approximate traffic forecast.
Based on the colleting result of the traffic demand forecast case for UB city, 4
step approach method was used in Detailed engineering design of road from
Yarmag bridge to Bayanzurh in Ulaanbaatar city", so reviewed it first.
3.1.1 Review the demand in Detailed engineering design of road from Yarmag
bridge to Bayanzurh in Ulaanbaatar city"
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4 step approach method dividing the forecasted OD (Origin-Destination) volume
after organizing the road network under the reflection of the social-economic
index forecast and related plans was applied.
- Present O/D settlement: Settlement by the calibration process which repeatedly
distributes the O/D which was forecasted based on the detailed regional
population data on the present road network.
- Network settlement: The feasible planned road network on present road
network was reflected.
- Future O/D settlement: Settlement by calibration after the multiply of the
growth rate on the already settled present O/D traffic volume.
4 step approach method
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Ulaanbaatar city is organized with six Districts such as Sukhbaatar, Khan-Uul,
Bayangol, Bayanzurkh, Songino Khairkhan and Chingeltei. Each Dirstict is
organized 14~25 Khoroo, and there are totally 120 Khorooes. East 4 road
intersection which is the project area is included in the Bayanzurkh District.
UB Districts in Study Area
S. No. Name of District No. of Blocks (Khoroos)
1 Bayangol 20
2 Chingeltei 19
3 Sukhbaatar 18
4 Bayanzurkh 24
5 Khan Uul 14
6 Songino Khairkhan 25
Total 120
Source: Data from Ulaanbaatar city government
Section map of traffic zone
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Based on the review in the allocated traffic volume of Detailed engineering design
of road from Yarmag bridge to Bayanzurh in Ulaanbaatar city", there is big
difference in the project route with the OD and allocated traffic volume to
downtown because the project route is passing through the southern outer area
of UB city. The traffic volume of south-north direction of East 4 Road
Intersection in 2031 (Target year) was forecasted as below 1,000 vehicles per
hour. So, the use of the 4 step approach method and traffic data of Detailed
engineering design of road from Yarmag bridge to Bayanzurh in Ulaanbaatar
city" is insufficient.
3.1.2 Traffic forecast using past trend extension method
Traffic volume increasing rate was established as 1.35% after review of the past
traffic survey data of UB city and the bus terminal traffic data of The Study on
UB city Master Plan and Urban Development Program (JICA, 2006) and the
traffic data which the Consultant surveyed for the same area at 2008 was also
reviewed.
3.2 Present condition of traffic
The present traffic conditions such as geometric structure, traffic volume,
walkers volume, traffic sign time, etc were investigated and analyzed and were
used as the basic data for alternative design establishment and selection.
3.2.1 Traffic Survey
Traffic surveys of traffic index such the number of lanes, lane operation, traffic
sign operation, etc to check the accurate traffic conditions of East 4 road
intersection have been implemented Oct. 2008.
Traffic Survey Item
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Item Contents
Geometry Number of Lanes, lane operation, Road width
Traffic Volume The vehicle types were classified as five (motor car, micro bus, general bus, small truck and large truck) and the traffic volume
by time and direction was investigated.
Pedestrian Volume Traffic volume of one hour on each fifteen minute from each direction
Signal Operation Traffic signal phase, and cycle length and location of traffic signal
Survey Site
3.2.2 Geometry
The Consultant investigated the road alignment, number of lanes and width of
each intersection approach, width of sidewalk and location of the bus stop to
check the traffic features of East 4 roads intersection.
Unsignalized Intersection of Westbound Approach
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Bus Stop and Pedestrian Cross at Eastbound Approach
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Geometry
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3.2.3 Traffic Volume
1) Total volume on the intersection
Based on the traffic survey on the East 4 roads intersection for 14 hours, it
was found that the total volume on the intersection was increased quickly
after 08:00 and continued until after 20:00. The most concentrated traffic jam
time was from 09:00 to 10:00 and the traffic volume was 6,239 pcu/hr. The
traffic rates by vehicle type were investigated to be motor car 77%, bus 16%
and truck 7%.
Intersection Hourly Volume
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
6-7
7-8
8-9
9-10
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
Time
Vehicles(pcu/hr)
Volume Ratio by Vehicle Classification
Auto77%
MicroBUS13%
GeneralBUS3%
Truck7%
Auto73%
MicroBUS18%
GeneralBUS4%
Truck5%
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2) Traffic volume by direction
The traffic volume by direction from 09:00 to 10:00 which was the most
concentrated traffic jam time among 14 hours of survey is as below.
Traffic volume by each direction
14-hrs Volume Peak Hour Volume
Peak Hour Traffic volume and vehicle type rate for each
approach
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Volume(veh/hr)
SB WB NB EB
Approach
Truck
GeneralBUS
MicroBUS
Auto
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3) Delay and LOS analysis
The result of the calculation for the delay on the intersection by Synchro is
116.8sec/veh, LOS F. The service level for all approach to the intersection is F and
the delay from all approach was reported, and the delay especially occurred mainly
on left turn traffic system.
The delay will be relieved due to the signal time increase according to the
installment of overpass on the left turn of east-west direction. The left turn lane
increase is needed for the left turn of south-north direction.
Analysis result of intersection traffic movement
Approach Movement Volume
(pcu/hr)
Movement
Delay
(sec/veh)
Approach
Delay
(sec/veh),
LOS
Intersection
Delay
(sec/veh),
LOS
East Bound
Left Turn 265 246.4
102.8
(F)
116.8
(F)
Through 865 89.9
Right Turn 288 9.2
West Bound
Left Turn 495 212.0
136.7
(F) Through 997 149.6
Right Turn 415 15.8
North Bound
Left Turn 393 152.4
85.8
(F) Through 765 71.9
Right Turn 237 20.2
South Bound
Left Turn 428 192.4
133.5
(F) Through 907 129.2
Right Turn 184 17.5
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3.2.4 Pedestrian Volume
The Consultant surveyed the volume of pedestrians crossing the intersection and
the volume of pedestrians on the sidewalk of Peace Avenue. LOS of Pedestrian
Crossing is C (moderate condition) and LOS of Sidewalk is A (good
condition).
Survey points for pedestrian volume
Pedestrian volume and LOS
Location Pedestrian Volume
(person/15min)
Effective Green Time for Pedestrian (sec)
Pedestrian Delay
(sec/person) LOS
Pedestrian Crossing
1 148 34 26.3 C
2 19 31 28.3 C
3 25 34 26.3 C
4 25 31 28.3 C
Location Pedestrian Volume
(person/15min) Effective Length of Sidewalk(m)
Flow Rate (person/min/m)
LOS
Sidewalk
5 179 2.0 6.0 A
6 23 2.0 0.8 A
7 157 2.0 5.2 A
8 27 2.0 0.9 A
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3.2.5 Traffic Signal Operation
The signal for east 4 road intersection is operating as pre-timed signal on 110
second cycle length. The design review of signal time connected with ITS will
be needed because there is the ITS plan to change the signal controller unit for
the intersection which is under examination of the design proposal.
Traffic signal location
4
22
2
4
2
34
2
2
2
42
44
2
4
2
32
2
2
2
4
2
3
2
Signal Operation
Phase and Signal Time Signal Operation
15
1
(3)
2 3
31(3) 24(3)
Cycle
110
(sec)
4
28(3)
Phase Scheme : Dual Ring
Phase Sequence : Leading Left Turn
Cycle Length : 110 sec
Number of Phases : 4
Overlap Phase : No
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3.3 Traffic forecast of the intersection in 2031
Daily volume of the East 4 road intersection of UB city is forecasted as 101,168
pcu/14hrs in 2031 which is the target year. The forecasted Peak
Hour(09:00~10:00) volume is converted as directional volume based on the
traffic rate of survey of Oct. 2008.
Forecasted hourly traffic volume in 2031
Time 2008 Hourly Volume
(pcu/hr) Volume Ratio
2031 Hourly Volume (pcu/hr)
06:00~07:00 714 0.0096 972
07:00~08:00 2,939 0.0396 4,001
08:00~09:00 5,767 0.0776 7,851
09:00~10:00 6,239 0.0840 8,494
10:00~11:00 6,136 0.0826 8,354
11:00~12:00 6,118 0.0823 8,329
12:00~13:00 6,172 0.0831 8,403
13:00~14:00 5,995 0.0807 8,162
14:00~15:00 5,860 0.0789 7,978
15:00~16:00 5,865 0.0789 7,985
16:00~17:00 5,811 0.0782 7,911
17:00~18:00 5,685 0.0765 7,740
18:00~19:00 5,439 0.0732 7,405
19:00~20:00 5,570 0.0750 7,583
Total 74,310 1.0000 101,168
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The allocated traffic volume is calculated for each movement of approach to the
intersection by traffic forecast. The present traffic rate is applied for the traffic
rate of the movement. The peak hour is settled as 09:00~10:00 for A.M. based
on present traffic volume.
Intersection Volume in 2031
Movement AM Peak Hour(09:00~10:00)
Volume
(pcu/hr) Ratio
SB
RT 251 0.0296
TH 1,235 0.1454
LT 583 0.0686
WB
RT 565 0.0665
TH 1,356 0.1596
LT 674 0.0794
NB
RT 323 0.0380
TH 1,041 0.1226
LT 535 0.0630
EB
RT 392 0.0462
TH 1,178 0.1387
LT 361 0.0425
Total 8,494 1.0000
NB : North Bound, SB : South Bound, EB : East Bound, WB : West Bound LT : Left Turn, TH : Through, RT : Right Turn