Traditional EPI: BCG, DTP, DT/Td, HepB, TT, Measles, MMR, MR, tender overview Pre-tender meeting...
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Traditional EPI: BCG, DTP, DT/Td, HepB, TT, Measles, MMR, MR, tender overview Pre-tender meeting UNICEF Supply Division, 11 December 2008 Katinka Rosenbom, Yalda Momeni
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Transcript of Traditional EPI: BCG, DTP, DT/Td, HepB, TT, Measles, MMR, MR, tender overview Pre-tender meeting...
Traditional EPI:
BCG, DTP, DT/Td, HepB, TT, Measles, MMR, MR, tender overview
Pre-tender meetingUNICEF Supply Division, 11 December 2008Katinka Rosenbom, Yalda Momeni
Assessment of traditional EPI vaccine procurement Principles & Objectives
Objective
1. Continued, sustainable supply
2. Quality vaccines (WHO pre-qualification)
3. Multiple manufacturers per vaccine
4. Affordable prices
Assessment (2001-2007)
1. No major interruptions / sufficient to meet demand (with adjustments for some campaigns)
2. No major vaccine-caused AEFI
3. Achieved overall, except measles
4. Mixed, related to (3)
BCG – Procurement Overview – Historical
•Relatively stable demand, fluctuations occurring due to countries exiting or entering UNICEF Procurement•2008 reduced quantities due to Pakistan self procurement
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Do
se
s
Original Quantity on LTA Forecast to Suppliers at beginning of YearQuantity Procured Current Forecasted Quantity Upcoming Tender Quantity
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Do
se
s
Original Quantity on LTA Forecast to Suppliers at beginning of YearQuantity Procured Current Forecasted Quantity Upcoming Tender Quantity
Upcoming Tender Period
•Forecast remain stable during the next tender period•Quantities based on demand from multiple countries
BCG – Procurement Overview – Forecast
BCG-20
2010 2011 2012Total 110,000,000 110,000,000 115,000,000
Summary of BCG tender quantities
DTP
Managing DTP based product transitions
Demand
• The successful introduction of combination vaccines, needs careful transition management, and is impacting our forecast accuracy
• The tender aims at transparency on uncertainty by identifying known uncertain quantities due to product change (switchers)
Funding
When funding availability is a major determinant we share scenarios outlining the different demand profiles
Increasing quantities for all DTP-containing vaccines since 2001
•Trend in shift to DTP-combination vaccines, primarily DTP-HepB/Hib, expected to continue in the next tender period
-
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
180,000,000
200,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
DTP DTP-HepB DTP-Hib DTP-HepB/Hib
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
180,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Do
se
s
Original Quantity on LTA Forecast to Suppliers at beginning of YearQuantity Procured Current Forecasted Quantity Upcoming Tender Quantity
•Steady decrease as countries shift to combination vaccines
DTP – Procurement Overview – Historical
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
180,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Do
se
s
Original Quantity on LTA Forecast to Suppliers at beginning of YearQuantity Procured Current Forecasted Quantity Upcoming Tender Quantity
Upcoming Tender Period
•Steady decrease in demand as countries shift to combination vaccines
DTP – Procurement Overview – Forecast
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
180,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Quantity Procured Predictable Potential Switchers
Upcoming Tender Period
• Additional countries likely to introduce combination vaccines during the tender period
• Potential switchers, notably Nigeria, Myanmar (GAVI) and Philippines (non-GAVI)
DTP – Procurement Overview – Forecast, including potential switchers
DTP-10
2010 2011 2012Total 28,000,000 28,000,000 29,000,000Total excluding Switchers 6,000,000 6,500,000 7,000,000
DTP-20
2010 2011 2012Total 16,000,000 16,000,000 16,000,000Total excluding Switchers 16,000,000 7,000,000 5,000,000
Summary of DTP tender quantities
Summary of DT and Td tender quantities
•DT demand consists of small quantities from a number of countries.•75% of the Td demand is from one country only (Haiti).
DT-10
2010 2011 2012Total 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000
Td-10
2010 2011 2012Total 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000
HepB vaccines
On an aggregate level, there has been a steady increase in all HepB containing vaccines since 2001
•GAVI support began in 2001 as well as introduction in non-GAVI supported countries
•Shifts between products, with trend towards combination vaccines
•HepB no longer supported by GAVI as a monovalent vaccine, no new countries to introduce
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
HepB DTP-HepB DTP-HepB/Hib
•Remaining quantities dependant on a few large countries•Demand decreasing as countries introduce combination vaccines
HepB – Procurement Overview – Historical
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Do
se
s
Original Quantity on LTA Forecast to Suppliers at beginning of YearQuantity Procured Current Forecasted Quantity Upcoming Tender Quantity
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Do
se
s
Original Quantity on LTA Forecast to Suppliers at beginning of YearQuantity Procured Current Forecasted Quantity Upcoming Tender Quantity
Upcoming Tender Period
HepB – Procurement Overview – Forecast
•Remaining quantities dependant on a few large countries•Demand decreasing as countries introduce combination vaccines
-
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Quantity procured Predictable Potential Switcher
Upcoming Tender Period
•Further decrease in demand expected as additional countries introduce combination vaccines, potential switchers (Nigeria & Philippines)•Demand continues for HepB1 as countries introduce a birth dose (~2 m doses per year).
HepB – Procurement Overview – Forecast, including potential switchers
Historically, majority of HepB demand has been supported by GAVI, but moving forward demand will be funded by different sources.
-
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Do
ses
GAVI Qty Non GAVI Qty
Summary of HepB tender quantitiesHepB-10
2010 2011 2012Total 32,300,000 33,100,000 34,800,000Total excluding Switchers 9,200,000 7,100,000 5,100,000
HepB-6
2010 2011 2012Total 200,000 200,000 200,000
HepB-2
2010 2011 2012Total 200,000 200,000 200,000
HepB-1
2010 2011 2012Total 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000
