TRADER MAGAZINE - september 2014 trader magazine currency wars big moves ahead greater china usd/cny...
Transcript of TRADER MAGAZINE - september 2014 trader magazine currency wars big moves ahead greater china usd/cny...
JULY - SEPTEMBER 2014
TRADER MAGAZINE
CURRENCY WARSBIG MOVES AHEADGREATER CHINAUSD/CNY WATCH
FACTA BILLFOREX FACTS
OVERTRADING
VICTIMSTREND TRADINGART OR SCIENCE?
Brazilian economic miracle
still for REAL ?
US DOLLARM I D Y E A RO U T L O O K
FXCONTENTs
THE FOREX FACTS BEHIND THE FACTA BILL
Will the FACTA bill create a domino effect of changes with the US dollar and its currency counterparts? How should FX traders prepare for money-making opportunities?
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How to identify when not to trade, using Bollinger Bands
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06 EDITOR’S NOTE
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:11 Currency Wars and Big Moves: Fundamental and Technical Roundup
21 Greater China and the USD/CNY: How China’s main economic indicators can help forecast USD/CNY moves in the next few months
MONETARY POLICY:26 Central Banks Are Playing the Stock Market: Central banks are buying the world’s largest companies to compensate for the loss of bond income due to record-low interest rates41 Central Banks Create a Currency War: Analysis of the major central banks’ current monetary policies and their impact on in�ation and interest rates
CURRENCY WATCH:31 US Dollar Mid-Year Update: Critical Junctures in a quite market
MACROECONOMICS:45 Scottish Independence: Answering the Currency Dilemma
FX MANAGERS:48 Interview with Alan Eisenberg, CEO North America, �e Cambridge Strategy
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:58 Trading Trends: An Art or a Science?
TRADING METHOD:61 Selecting the Right Time Frame to Trade: A look at di�erent options and trading methods
TECHNICAL REPORTS:
65 Majors: EUR/GBP, EUR/USD EUR/JPY, USD/JPY
69 Trends and Targets: Majors, Emerging and Asian Markets
69 Featured pairs: USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, USD/RUB, EUR/NZD
73 CONFERENCES & SEMINARS
INTERNATIONAL DATA:
74 FX Spot Monitor75 Central Bank Rates76 Economic Data - FX Poll77 Markets View
78 ECONOMIC CALENDAR
ARE YOU A VICTIM OF OVERTRADING?
34IS THE BRAZILIAN “ECONOMIC MIRACLE” STILL FOR REAL?
A look at Brazil’s current macroeconomic development and a fundamental analysis of the Real opportunities
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IS THE BRAZIL IAN “ECONOMIC MIRACLE”
ST ILL FOR REAL?
Political concerns in Brazil ironically run in tandem alongside more optimistic or sanguine business outlooks
Projects have gone ahead with scant regard for the welfare of those struggling to remain above the poverty line
Looking ahead, developments in Brazil will almost certainly prove to be guiding forces in the currency markets
by Kevin Sollitt
Whether we are talking football, currency or politics, common topic denominators are uncertainty, coupled with misinterpretation of implied trends, which can lead us to read signals inaccurately
EMERGING MARKETSFX
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FXEMERGING MARKETS
At the time of writing this article, we’re in the midst of quadrennial FIFA World Cup football action, witnessing a combination of surprising , fantastic and unpredictable action on the pitches - or as some might say, not too different from m a n a g i n g B r a z i l i a n Real (BRL) currency risk in volatile FX markets!
Back to football, the c o l l e c t i v e hopes of the world’s fifth largest country - coincidentally both by population of 201 million and area of 8.5 million square km - are riding high on the abilities of its national soccer team to perform and deliver at the highest level.
What would become a record sixth World Cup victory is within Brazil’s grasp - unless the team crumbles under lofty expectations, only to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Which, on a topical note, is surely of concern
to the current Government of 36th Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, given the current election campaigns to prepare for the October polls. Despite anticipated World Cup fervour,
the Government’s approval rating has slumped from around 40% to 31%, according to a recent IBOPE survey and jeopardising the previous notion that re-election would be a done deal.
It seems that whether we’re talking football, currency or politics, common topic denominators are uncertainty coupled with
misinterpretation of implied trends or direction, that can lead us to read signals inaccurately, for likely or expected results.
POLITICAL CONCERNS
P o l i t i c a l concerns in Brazil ironically run in tandem alongside more o p t i m i s t i c or sanguine b u s i n e s s outlooks. While Brazil’s regime continues to seek and promote Foreign Direct I n v e s t m e n t , a m b i t i o u s c o m p a n i e s c o m m i t resources to feasibility studies and capital towards future enterprises. But the ebullient mood becomes s o m e w h a t
offset or even soured when one considers that the passions of many workers often run so highly against what can be viewed subject to circumstances as big business intrusion, mostly on the basis that people are feeling left behind on the prosperity scale.
It has only been a year or so since the riots first rocked Brazil,
Polit ical concerns in Brazil ironically run in tandem alongside more optimistic or
sanguine business outlooks
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