Tracking economic and industry trends amidst COVID-19
Transcript of Tracking economic and industry trends amidst COVID-19
Tracking economic and industry trends amidst COVID-19
29 October 2020
Tracking economic and industry trends amidst COVID-19©2020 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India LLP 2
The table of contents
Government
Mobility
Market Sentiments
Credit
Consumer demand
Trade
Investment and
production
Industrial production
Economy
Agriculture
TMT
ER&I
LSHC
FSI
Consumer
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COVID-19 has had an unprecedented impact on growth
Growth contracted in Q1 FY2021 by a magnitude never seen before Private demand and trade contracted while government spending increased
Economy
-50
-30
-10
10
30
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY2021
% YoY The four growth engines of real GDP
Private consumption Government consumption
Total fixed investment Exports, goods & services
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY2021
% YoY Real GDP growth
The unemployment rate recovered after the unlock, and labour participation rate improved Food prices remained elevated due to supply disruption caused by regional lockdowns
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
26-Jan-20 25-Feb-20 26-Mar-20 25-Apr-20 25-May-20 24-Jun-20 24-Jul-20 23-Aug-20 22-Sep-20 22-Oct-20
% Unemployment rate
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
% YoY Consumer price inflation
CPI: overall Core Food
Sources: CMIE, MOSPI
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Gradual removal of lockdown restrictions has improved mobility
Congestion levels improving, and are in the vicinity of pre-COVID-19 levels Mobility is improving around residential places, for essential needs only
Tourist arrivals have plunged since movement restrictions Suspension of international flights impacting flight activities off late
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20
Nos in ‘000 Foreign tourist arrivals in India
Sources: CMIE, Google mobility, Deloitte economic tracker
Mobility
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Retail andrecreation
Grocery andpharmacy
Parks Transit stations Workplaces Residential
% change India mobility indicator (average % change from the baseline)
March April May June July August Sep Oct (till 23rd Oct)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
No of flights Scheduled vs. departed flights
Scheduled Departed
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43
Average %
Weeks in 2020
Weekly average % of traffic congestion level
Bengaluru Delhi Mumbai
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While the market sentiments dip, capital markets continued with an upward trend
Sources: CMIE, NCAER quarterly report
Consumer confidence index further plunges due to economic uncertainty and job losses ..business sentiment recovers in Sep as new orders, sales, and production recommence
FIIs turned into net sellers of equities and buyers of debt instruments in September Valuation of Indian stocks have risen back to pre-COVID-19 levels over the past two months
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20
Index Consumer confidence index
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20
Index Business expectation index
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
20000
24000
28000
32000
36000
40000
44000
IndexIndex Capital markets
S&P BSE Sensex (30) NIFTY-50 (RHS)
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
INR billion Net investments by foreign institutional investors (FIIs)
Debt Equity
Market sentiments
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Consumers are reluctant to spend on discretionary items in the near future. Is rural demand faltering?
Sources: CMIE, Deloitte consumer tracker
Consumers continued to spend more on less-discretionary items including groceries, internet Urban demand recovers while low wages is impacting rural demand
Rise in credit card transactions indicates that consumer spending is gradually rebounding
First four weeks of survey vs. last four weeks (% of respondents in a sample)
Survey has been capturing responses of these individuals every alternate weeks since 19 April and each survey is reported as Waves. Wave 1 refers to survey dates between April 15 – April 17; Wave 11 was published as on 03 Oct 2020.
62%
56%
38%
57%
53%
18%
54%
-16%
-12%
-6%
3%
5%
-10%
42%
38%
49%
48%
34%
50%
38%
19%
47%
-21%
-15%
-4%
13%
14%
-9%
28%
36%
Groceries
Everyday household goods
Utilities
Health care
Medicines
Housing
Internet/mobile phone
Travel
Restaurants/takeout food
Furnishings
Clothing/apparel/footwear
Electronics
Alcohol
Cable TV
Savings
Spending pattern (share of wallet)
Wave 1 Wave 11
Less
dis
cret
ion
ary
Mo
re d
iscr
etio
nar
y
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20
MillionINR billionCredit card transactions
Value Number (RHS)
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20
% YoY Industrial production of consumer goods
Durable goods (proxy for urban demand)
Non-durable goods (proxy for rural demand)
Consumer demand
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Industry investment and production picking up lately, yet investments on new projects remain low
Source: CMIE
New projects declined sharply, and industries suffer excess capacity Railways freight traffic sees an uptick as economic activity recovers
Production of finished steel recovered, led by demand from infrastructure activities and auto sector Diesel consumption sees improvement due to gradual opening of the industrial sector
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
% YoY Diesel consumption*
High speed diesel oil Light diesel oil
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
‘000 tonnes Production of finished steel
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
0
2000
4000
6000
1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21
Nos.INR billion New projects announcement
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Million tonnes Railway freight traffic
* High speed diesel oil is primarily used for vehicles, light diesel oil is used for lower RPM engines, boilers furnaces.
Investment and production
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Industrial activity, including services, is gradually catching up to pre-COVID-19 levels
Sources: CMIE, Ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MOSPI)
Industrial activity recovering gradually from lows during the lockdown Manufacturing sector activity returns to positive growth, services yet to grow but improving since July
Coal and steel output improving as industrial activities resumed; construction activities also resuming Recommencement of stalled investment projects driving production of construction and capital goods
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20
Index Purchasing Manager’s index (PMI)
Manufacturing PMI Services PMI
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
% YoY Core industries output
Coal Steel Cement
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20
% YoY IIP: Manufacturing, Construction and capital goods
Manufacturing Construction goods Capital goods
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20
% YoY Industrial production* and index of eight core industry
IIP: Total Index of eight core industries
Note: * In a press release dated June 12, 2020, NSO has stated that it would not be appropriate to compare the IIP of April 2020 with indices of earlier months. The growth rates in the tabulation are calculated by CMIE from the index numbers.
Industrial activity
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Credit growth has been moderating, lending to industry, services, and NBFCs declined
Sources: CMIE, RBI
Bank credit growth to commercial sector continues to decline Vehicle loans continued to perform well, while other categories saw a modest growth
Credit offtake by industry and services has been low relative to June and July Bank credit to MSEs improved post May, but lending to NBFCs fell
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
% YoY Scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) credit for personal loans
Housing Credit card outstanding Vehicle loans Total (RHS)
5
7
9
11
13
15
Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20
% YoY Total credit to the commercial sector
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20
% YoY Scheduled commercial banks (SCBs): Credit to NBFCs and MSEs
Micro and small enterprises (MSEs)
Non-bank financial corporations (NBFCs)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
% YoY Scheduled commercial banks (SCBs): credit growth by sectors
Industry Services
Credit
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Exports improved owing to trade in agriculture and chemical products; FDI rose sharply in August
Source: CMIE
Exports grew at a highest pace in over a year, although trade remained in deficit
FDI flows sharply increased in August post a few select dealsGlobal baltic dry index indicate recovery in trade movements of goods
Rupee continued to appreciate against the US dollar, but not so much against Euro
-90
-60
-30
0
30
Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20
% YoY Trade in goods
Exports Imports
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20
USD million Net foreign direct investments in India
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20
Index Baltic dry index
External
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
24-Feb-20 25-Mar-20 24-Apr-20 24-May-20 23-Jun-20 23-Jul-20 22-Aug-20 21-Sep-20 21-Oct-20
INR/EUINR/USD Exchange rates fluctuation
INR/USD INR/EU (RHS)
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Government yields remain low; GST revenue collection improves
Sources: CMIE, Haver Analytics
Government yields remain low and range bound despite uncertainties Revenue collections started picking up since May; although fell in Aug due to reduced imports
Policy uncertainty index witnessed an uptick after a drop in June The fiscal deficit improved in September as Government expenditure fell
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
-
100,000
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
INR Cr. Central government: Gross fiscal surplus/deficit
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
INR Cr. Central government revenue: Goods & services tax (GST)
5.7
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.5
10 Feb 20 24 Mar 20 13 May 20 23 Jun 20 31 Jul 20 9 Sep 20 20 Oct 20
% 10-year government bond yield
0
40
80
120
160
200
Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20
Index Economic policy uncertainty index (Mean=100)
Government
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COVID-19 and emerging industry trends
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The agriculture output increased; a good rainfall bodes well for the industry
Sources: CMIE, Food Corporation of India, Ministry of agriculture
Fertilizers sales grew significantly on account of increase in kharif crops sowing Sufficient stock of food grains available with the Food Corporation of India
Hike in MSP likely to raise prices of pulses and oilseeds Kharif crops sowing higher in Aug-Sep 2020 compared to last two years
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Million tonnes Food grains stock in central pool
Rice* Wheat Coarsegrains
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Masur (Lentil)
Rapeseed/Mustard
Barley
Gram
Wheat
Safflower
% YoY
Crop MSP for 2020-21 rabi marketing year
* Includes unmilled paddy
0
3000
6000
9000
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20
‘000 tonnes Fertilizer sales
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
June July Aug Sep
Million hectares Progress of sowing of kharif crops (actual area)
2018 2019 2020
Agriculture
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Broadband subscriber base improved since April; average revenue per user (ARPU) improved
Note: Q2 results will be released on 30th October 2020Sources: CMIE, VIL quarterly report, Airtel Quarterly KPIs, RIL 4Q Release
Growth in broadband subscriber base improved since April
*Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is the average billing per customer earned by the telecom company every month. It is the total revenue earned by the company divided by the total active users for a particular time period.
Technology, media and telecommunication
Reliance Jio sees a rapid increase in subscribers Airtel’s average revenue per user is the highest; Vodafone Idea sees a decline
Wireless data traffic per subscriber improved in Q1
15
20
25
30
35
40
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
% YoYMillion Broadband subscribers base and growth
Broadband subscriber base Growth (RHS)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1QFY2020 2QFY2020 3QFY2020 4QFY2020 1QFY2021
Million Number of subscribers
Bharti Airtel Vodafone Idea Reliance Jio Infocomm
90
105
120
135
150
165
1QFY2020 2QFY2020 3QFY2020 4QFY2020 1QFY2021
INR Average revenue per user (ARPU)*
Bharti Airtel Vodafone Idea Reliance Jio Infocomm
6
9
12
15
18
1QFY2020 2QFY2020 3QFY2020 4QFY2020 1QFY2021
Gigabytes Wireless data traffic per subscriber
Bharti Airtel Vodafone Idea Reliance Jio Infocomm
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Energy sector gradually recovering after a sharp drop
Sources: CMIE, Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), Power System Operation Corporation Limited (POSOCO)Notes: *Natural gas available for consumption= gross production minus the quantity of gas flared/loss by producing companies;** Total LNG imports (long term, spot); $Net production + LNG import
Natural gas consumption has improved with the rise in production
Electricity requirement is gradually picking up
Production and consumption of petroleum products recovering gradually
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Million kwh Electricity surplus/deficit#
0
50
100
150
200
250
MU Electricity demand by state
Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Sep-20
Electricity demand has been highest in North India (Delhi, UP and Haryana), lags in South
#Surplus/ deficit is the difference between the electricity required and electricity supplied
Energy, resources and industrials
0
10
20
30
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Million MT Petroleum products - production, consumption, export, and imports
Production Consumption
Exports Imports
1
2
3
4
5
6
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
BCM Natural gas - production, imports, and consumption
Net production* Imports** Consumption$
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Drug exports and production of several pharma products revived after April
Sources: CMIE; Indian council of medical research
Production of pharmaceuticals has improved to pre-COVID-19 capacities and is stable
Government testing labs have ramped up significantly
Exports of drugs improved since April; imports remained stagnant
Number of samples tested rising steadily
0
40000
80000
120000
160000
200000
INR million Total import and export of drugs
Import Export
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
31-Mar 30-Apr 15-May16-May23-May 3-Jun 20-Jun 1-Jul 12-Jul 25-Jul 17-Aug 30-Aug 20-Sep 30-Sep 27-Oct
Labs Testing labs in India
Govt Labs Private Labs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
17-Apr 20-May 5-Jun 27-Jun 15-Jul 30-Jul 10-Aug 20-Aug 30-Aug 10-Sep 20-Sep 30-Sep 10-Oct 20-Oct
Million Tests Total samples tested
8,000
11,000
14,000
17,000
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20
INR million Production of Pharmaceuticals, Medicinal Chemical and Botanical Products
Life sciences and healthcare
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Deposits are rising faster than credit; indicate lower credit demand and banks unwillingness to lend
Sources: CMIE, RBI
The State Bank of India is lending more relative to other private banks
Banks shares are performing poorly relative to NIFTY 50
Bank deposits are rising faster than bank credit growth
New business premiums of life companies rose strongly; likely to be stable in medium term
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20
% YoY Total deposits and credit of Scheduled commercial banks (SCBs)
Deposit Credit
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
% YoYINR billion New business premium of life insurers
New business premium Growth (RHS)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
01/2020 02/2020 03/2020 04/2020 05/2020 06/2020 07/2020 08/2020 09/2020 10/2020
Index NSE Sensex
Nifty 50 Nifty PSU Bank Nifty Bank
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21
% Credit deposit ratio
State Bank Of India HDFC Bank Ltd.
ICICI Bank Ltd. Axis Bank Ltd.
Financial services
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Demand for auto and garments revived; gradual recovery in cargo traffic
Source: CMIE
Consumer industry shares perform better than the overall index
Exports of garment is improving and has moved above pre-COVID levels
Domestic car sales have significantly increased with improved mobility
Growth in cargo traffic movement at ports and airports has not improved since June
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
% YoYINR millionExport of readymade garments from India
Exports Growth (RHS)
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20
% YoY Cargo traffic at ports and airports
Cargo handled at ports Air cargo traffic
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Nos. in ‘000Nos. in ‘000Total motor vehicles registered* and sales of passenger vehicles#
Vehicles registered* Domestic sales of cars (RHS)
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
3-Jan-20 1-Feb-20 1-Mar-20 30-Mar-20 28-Apr-20 27-May-20 25-Jun-20 24-Jul-20 22-Aug-20 20-Sep-20 19-Oct-20
Index BSE SensexSensex 30
BSE Consumer durable index
BSE Consumer discretionary goods & services index
BSE FMCG Index
* Motor vehicles include both commercial and non-commercial vehicles# Include passenger cars, vans and MUVs
Consumer
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