Tracking Agile Project Performance
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Transcript of Tracking Agile Project Performance
Tracking Agile Project Performance
(Earned Value and Beyond)
Presented by: Mike Griffiths, PMP
Leading Answer Inc.www.LeadingAnswers.com
October 14, 2009
My Background• Project Manager and Trainer
• 20+ years IT experience on utilities, finance, defense, & energy• 8 years PM, PMO: Agile-to-Traditional Integration
• Agile Project Management• Helped create DSDM in 1994• 15 years agile project experience (XP, Scrum, FDD)• Board director of Agile Alliance and APLN• Author, trainer, and presenter Agile Conference 2001-9
• Traditional Project Management• PMP, PRINCE2 certifications• PMBOK v3 contributor and reviewer• Trainer for PMI SeminarsWorld 2005-9• Presenter PMI Global Congress 2004-8
Agenda
Earned Value Analysis
• “When will we finish and how much will it cost?”
Projects are often costly and time consuming
Cost and Time Reporting
Cost Reporting – S Curve Charts
Project Expenditure
0102030405060708090
100
Jan20
Jan27
Feb3
Feb10
Feb17
Feb24
Mar3
Mar10
Mar17
Mar24
Mar31
Apr7
Spen
d $0
00
EstimateActual
Cost and Time Reporting (Cont’d)
Schedule Reporting - Tracking Gantt Charts
What is Earned Value?
• A technique to measure, at a specific date:• Progress and performance of a project against a plan• Predict future performance of the project
• Consists of 3 dimensions:1. Planned Spend2. Actual Spend3. Budgeted Spend against Actual Work Accomplished
What is Earned Value (cont’d)?
Answers these types of questions:• “When will we finish and how much will it cost?”
• “Given our rate of expenditure are we tracking on progress?”
• “Given our costs and progress how much will it take to complete?”
EV Critical Success Factors1. Quality of the project’s baseline plan
• Earned Value is compared against the baseline plan• Cost ‘overruns’ occur if project costs are under-budgeted• Scope creep will occur if initial scope hasn’t been adequately
defined
2. Track actual performance against approved baseline plan• Measure whether actuals track to the baseline plan
3. Management’s determination to influence final results• Mgt commitment to take action based on EV projections if
deviations from plan are observed
Earned Value Project Management, Quentin Fleming & Joel Koppelman, 2000
Earned Value Analysis - Example
Example: Building wall to surround a gardenAssume 4 equal sides, budget £200 per sideSchedule 1 side per day, finish in 4 days, cost £800
Day 1 Progress = Front wall completed budget spent £200
Earned Value Analysis - Example
Day 1 Progress = Front wall completed budget spent £200Day 2 Progress = Side 1 started, did not finish budget spent £220
Earned Value Analysis - Example
Day 1 Progress = Front wall completed budget spent £200Day 2 Progress = Side 1 started, did not finish budget spent £220Day 3 Progress = Side 1 finished, half of back done, left early, spent £140
Earned Value Analysis - Example
• How much ahead/behindare we?
• How much over/under budget are we?
Earned Value AnalysisTerm Name Meaning Day 3 Values
PV Planned Value Estimated value of the work planned to be done
£600
EV Earned Value Estimated value of the work actually accomplished
£200+£200+£100=£500
AC Actual Costs Actual Costs Incurred £200+£220+£140=£560
BAC Budget At Completion
Amount budgeted for total project £800
EAC Estimate At Completion
Currently expected total for project ?
ETC Estimate To Complete
How much More to finish ?
VAC Variance At Completion
How much over/under we expect to be
?
Reminder: Assume 4 equal sides, budget £200 per sideSchedule 1 side per day, finish in 4 days, cost £800
Earned Value Analysis
Name Formulae Value and Meaning
Cost Variance CV=EV-AC (£200+£200+£100=£500) –(£200+£220+£140=£560) = -£60(We are over budget)
Schedule Variance SV=EV-PV (£200+£200+£100=£500) –(£200+£200+£200=£600)= -£100(We are behind schedule)
Cost Performance Index CPI=EV/AC £500/£560 = 0.89(I am getting 89 pence out of every £)
Schedule Performance Index
SPI=EV/PV £500/£600 = 0.83 (I am progressing at 83% of the rate originally planned)
Estimate At Completion EAC=BAC/CPI £800/0.89 = £900(The total is now likely to be £900)
Estimate To Complete ETC=EAC-AC £900 - £560 = £340(From now I will likely spend £340)
Variance At Completion BAC-EAC £800-£900 = -£100(We expect to be £100 over budget)
Earned Value Formulae
Agile Earned Value AnalysisWhile agile EVA application is possible, question:• Role – is it the best measure of progress?
• Consider: Features delivered/remaining
• Goal – is the main focus conformance to plan?• Consider: Adaptive planning techniques to improve the planning
process• Consider: Focus on delivering business value
Agile Metrics
XYZ Project - Estimated Effort Remaining
0
50
100
150
200
250
Dec01
Dec08
Dec15
Dec22
Dec29
Jan05
Jan12
Jan19
Jan26
Feb02
Feb09
Estim
ated
Effo
rt• Time
Agile Metrics
• Features Delivered/Remaining
050
100150200
250300350400450
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Time
Feat
ures
Not StartedIn ProgressCompleted
Adapted from “Agile Management for Software Engineering” - David Anderson, 2003
Scope (points) ABC Project Progress Spend
Agile Metrics
Agile Metrics
Actual Costs
Planned Costs
Earned Value
Planned Value
Agile Metrics
Cost Variance }
Schedule Variance}
Agile Metrics
}
}
Planned Costs (PV) Schedule VarianceCost Variance
Earned Value (EV) SPI = Completed FeaturesPlanned Features
CPI = Earned ValueActual Costs
Actual Costs (AC)
Functionality-based Reporting
Example 2: Feature-based Reporting
Feature Set Status: Enter Order Details
(15)
24%Percentage Complete:
Not StartedWork in ProgressCompletedAttention (i.e. behind)
Percentage Complete Bar
October 2009Target Completion Month:Not Complete Complete
FB Chief Programmers Initials
Feature Set Name
Number of Features in the Feature Set
The Feature Set called Enter Order Details has 15 features and is currently 24% complete. It is due to be completed by October 2009
Functionality-based Reporting (Cont’d)
Example 2: Feature-based Reporting
Create New Order
(5)
100%
CaptureCustomer
Details(9)
75%
Enter OrderDetails
(15)
24%
ProcessPayment
(11)
Create NewCustomer
(8)
55%
AmendCustomer
Details(6)
20%
ArchiveCustomer
(4)
StockSearch
(6)
95%
ItemDetails
(12)
75%
Order Processing
Customer Management
Inventory Management
Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Sep 2009 Oct 2009
Oct 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009
CM DH LF RS NC
AW
KB
SW SW
Analysis DB Proc.s Code & UT User Test
45 30 40 35
• Identifying constraints• Buffering
Flow – Queue Analysis
Flow – Queue AnalysisUsing CFD’s for Identifying Bottlenecks
Project Alpha - Cumulative Flow
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20/0
2/20
04
27/0
2/20
04
05/0
3/20
04
12/0
3/20
04
19/0
3/20
04
26/0
3/20
04
02/0
4/20
04
09/0
4/20
04
16/0
4/20
04
23/0
4/20
04
30/0
4/20
04
07/0
5/20
04
14/0
5/20
04
21/0
5/20
04
28/0
5/20
04
Date
Tota
l Fea
ture
s TotalAnalysisDB ProcsCode & UTUser Test
Widening area activity
Bottleneck activity
Agile Metrics
Little’s Law:Cycle times are proportional to queue lengths.
(We can predict completion times based on queue size)
Agile Metrics - Summary
Agile metrics can provide the same indicators as earned value analysis
Agile metrics also provide insights into cycle times and process bottlenecks
Further ResourcesWeb: www.LeadingAnswers.comEmail: [email protected]