Tracking Agile Project Performance

(Earned Value and Beyond)

Presented by: Mike Griffiths, PMP

Leading Answer Inc.www.LeadingAnswers.com

October 14, 2009

My Background• Project Manager and Trainer

• 20+ years IT experience on utilities, finance, defense, & energy• 8 years PM, PMO: Agile-to-Traditional Integration

• Agile Project Management• Helped create DSDM in 1994• 15 years agile project experience (XP, Scrum, FDD)• Board director of Agile Alliance and APLN• Author, trainer, and presenter Agile Conference 2001-9

• Traditional Project Management• PMP, PRINCE2 certifications• PMBOK v3 contributor and reviewer• Trainer for PMI SeminarsWorld 2005-9• Presenter PMI Global Congress 2004-8

Agenda

Earned Value Analysis

• “When will we finish and how much will it cost?”

Projects are often costly and time consuming

Cost and Time Reporting

Cost Reporting – S Curve Charts

Project Expenditure

0102030405060708090

100

Jan20

Jan27

Feb3

Feb10

Feb17

Feb24

Mar3

Mar10

Mar17

Mar24

Mar31

Apr7

Spen

d $0

00

EstimateActual

Cost and Time Reporting (Cont’d)

Schedule Reporting - Tracking Gantt Charts

What is Earned Value?

• A technique to measure, at a specific date:• Progress and performance of a project against a plan• Predict future performance of the project

• Consists of 3 dimensions:1. Planned Spend2. Actual Spend3. Budgeted Spend against Actual Work Accomplished

What is Earned Value (cont’d)?

Answers these types of questions:• “When will we finish and how much will it cost?”

• “Given our rate of expenditure are we tracking on progress?”

• “Given our costs and progress how much will it take to complete?”

EV Critical Success Factors1. Quality of the project’s baseline plan

• Earned Value is compared against the baseline plan• Cost ‘overruns’ occur if project costs are under-budgeted• Scope creep will occur if initial scope hasn’t been adequately

defined

2. Track actual performance against approved baseline plan• Measure whether actuals track to the baseline plan

3. Management’s determination to influence final results• Mgt commitment to take action based on EV projections if

deviations from plan are observed

Earned Value Project Management, Quentin Fleming & Joel Koppelman, 2000

Earned Value Analysis - Example

Example: Building wall to surround a gardenAssume 4 equal sides, budget £200 per sideSchedule 1 side per day, finish in 4 days, cost £800

Day 1 Progress = Front wall completed budget spent £200

Earned Value Analysis - Example

Day 1 Progress = Front wall completed budget spent £200Day 2 Progress = Side 1 started, did not finish budget spent £220

Earned Value Analysis - Example

Day 1 Progress = Front wall completed budget spent £200Day 2 Progress = Side 1 started, did not finish budget spent £220Day 3 Progress = Side 1 finished, half of back done, left early, spent £140

Earned Value Analysis - Example

• How much ahead/behindare we?

• How much over/under budget are we?

Earned Value AnalysisTerm Name Meaning Day 3 Values

PV Planned Value Estimated value of the work planned to be done

£600

EV Earned Value Estimated value of the work actually accomplished

£200+£200+£100=£500

AC Actual Costs Actual Costs Incurred £200+£220+£140=£560

BAC Budget At Completion

Amount budgeted for total project £800

EAC Estimate At Completion

Currently expected total for project ?

ETC Estimate To Complete

How much More to finish ?

VAC Variance At Completion

How much over/under we expect to be

?

Reminder: Assume 4 equal sides, budget £200 per sideSchedule 1 side per day, finish in 4 days, cost £800

Earned Value Analysis

Name Formulae Value and Meaning

Cost Variance CV=EV-AC (£200+£200+£100=£500) –(£200+£220+£140=£560) = -£60(We are over budget)

Schedule Variance SV=EV-PV (£200+£200+£100=£500) –(£200+£200+£200=£600)= -£100(We are behind schedule)

Cost Performance Index CPI=EV/AC £500/£560 = 0.89(I am getting 89 pence out of every £)

Schedule Performance Index

SPI=EV/PV £500/£600 = 0.83 (I am progressing at 83% of the rate originally planned)

Estimate At Completion EAC=BAC/CPI £800/0.89 = £900(The total is now likely to be £900)

Estimate To Complete ETC=EAC-AC £900 - £560 = £340(From now I will likely spend £340)

Variance At Completion BAC-EAC £800-£900 = -£100(We expect to be £100 over budget)

Earned Value Formulae

Agile Earned Value AnalysisWhile agile EVA application is possible, question:• Role – is it the best measure of progress?

• Consider: Features delivered/remaining

• Goal – is the main focus conformance to plan?• Consider: Adaptive planning techniques to improve the planning

process• Consider: Focus on delivering business value

Agile Metrics

XYZ Project - Estimated Effort Remaining

0

50

100

150

200

250

Dec01

Dec08

Dec15

Dec22

Dec29

Jan05

Jan12

Jan19

Jan26

Feb02

Feb09

Estim

ated

Effo

rt• Time

Agile Metrics

• Features Delivered/Remaining

050

100150200

250300350400450

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Time

Feat

ures

Not StartedIn ProgressCompleted

Adapted from “Agile Management for Software Engineering” - David Anderson, 2003

Scope (points) ABC Project Progress Spend

Agile Metrics

Agile Metrics

Actual Costs 

Planned Costs

Earned Value

Planned Value

Agile Metrics

Cost Variance }

Schedule Variance}

Agile Metrics

}

}

Planned Costs (PV) Schedule VarianceCost Variance

Earned Value (EV) SPI = Completed FeaturesPlanned Features

CPI = Earned ValueActual Costs

Actual Costs (AC)

Functionality-based Reporting

Example 2: Feature-based Reporting

Feature Set Status: Enter Order Details

(15)

24%Percentage Complete:

Not StartedWork in ProgressCompletedAttention (i.e. behind)

Percentage Complete Bar

October 2009Target Completion Month:Not Complete Complete

FB Chief Programmers Initials

Feature Set Name

Number of Features in the Feature Set

The Feature Set called Enter Order Details has 15 features and is currently 24% complete. It is due to be completed by October 2009

Functionality-based Reporting (Cont’d)

Example 2: Feature-based Reporting

Create New Order

(5)

100%

CaptureCustomer

Details(9)

75%

Enter OrderDetails

(15)

24%

ProcessPayment

(11)

Create NewCustomer

(8)

55%

AmendCustomer

Details(6)

20%

ArchiveCustomer

(4)

StockSearch

(6)

95%

ItemDetails

(12)

75%

Order Processing

Customer Management

Inventory Management

Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Sep 2009 Oct 2009

Oct 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009

CM DH LF RS NC

AW

KB

SW SW

Analysis DB Proc.s Code & UT User Test

45 30 40 35

• Identifying constraints• Buffering

Flow – Queue Analysis

Flow – Queue AnalysisUsing CFD’s for Identifying Bottlenecks

Project Alpha - Cumulative Flow

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

20/0

2/20

04

27/0

2/20

04

05/0

3/20

04

12/0

3/20

04

19/0

3/20

04

26/0

3/20

04

02/0

4/20

04

09/0

4/20

04

16/0

4/20

04

23/0

4/20

04

30/0

4/20

04

07/0

5/20

04

14/0

5/20

04

21/0

5/20

04

28/0

5/20

04

Date

Tota

l Fea

ture

s TotalAnalysisDB ProcsCode & UTUser Test

Widening area activity

Bottleneck activity

Agile Metrics

Little’s Law:Cycle times are proportional to queue lengths.

(We can predict completion times based on queue size)

Agile Metrics - Summary

Agile metrics can provide the same indicators as earned value analysis

Agile metrics also provide insights into cycle times and process bottlenecks

Further ResourcesWeb: www.LeadingAnswers.comEmail: Mike@LeadingAnswers.com