Track Access Charges for the Bulgarian Railways – Technical Assistance Market demand.

Track Access Charges for the Bulgarian Railways – Technical Assistance

Market demand

Transport demand, period 2000 – 2013

Passenger demand dropped down by almost 5% average per yearFreight demand decreased by 3% a year

Workshop 17/12/2014 Railway sector in Bulgaria: Current situation and challenges

External factors influencing passenger demand

Number of population: decreasing by 0.7% per year

Population age: 18.5% over 65 years, 13.2 % below 15 year

Territorial distribution: 64% in South Bulgaria; 49.5% in South central and South-western region

Level of incomes: 48% of EU average Level of car ownership: 76% of EU average

Seminar 21/01/2015 Railway infrastructure – Key to achieve sustainable transport

External factors influencing freight demand

Structure of the national economy: 63.4% of GVA from services, 31.3% from industry

Collapse of big clients (Kremikovtsi) SME generate over 59% of the GVA Shift from large volumes of low-

price bulk materials to smaller-volume high-value general cargoes

60% of international trade is to/from countries served by sea and IWW

Seminar 21/01/2015 Railway infrastructure – Key to achieve sustainable transport

Result for nowadays demand by rail 20% of the lines serve 80% of the demand


Future perspectives for passenger demand

Negative demographic trends will persist

Incomes and car ownership are will keep growing

Value of time will grow in parallel to GDP pc

Target group for socially oriented services will shrink

Higher demand for suburban services

Lower demand for long distance services and regional services

Forecasted growth in number of passengers: 2020: 3.7% compared to 2013 2030: 9.2% compared to 2013


Passenger demand and supply 2030/2013


Assumed new services: Plovdiv – Panagyurishte Plovdiv – Hisarya Plovdiv – Karlovo Stara Zagora – Chirpan Stara Zagora – Nova Zagora Pleven – Cherkvitsa route Mezdra – Montana

Assumed additional supply in train-km: 8-9%

Future perspectives for freight demand

Domestic demand: Agriculture will keep decreasing Services are expected to grow Industry share anticipated to remain stable: highest growth is expected for ferrous and non-ferrous

metal industries, followed by engineering, and chemical industries Overall 20% growth 2030/2013

Good news: better perspectives for 2030 international demand exist: 30% overall growth of demand 60% more import and export 65% more transit

However, alternative routes and transport modes will compete for this demand!


Freight demand and supply


Estimated additional supply:22% more train-km in 2020 in comparison to 201357% more train-km in 2030 in comparison to 2013

Conclusions


Track Access Charges for the Bulgarian Railways – Technical Assistance Market demand.

Documents

Transcript of Track Access Charges for the Bulgarian Railways – Technical Assistance Market demand.