Analysis of NARCCAP results in the Pacific Northwest

for decision-making in the upper Columbia Basin

T.Q. Murdock, Climate Scientist, PCIC

G. Burger, Climate Scientist, PCICH. Eckstrand, GIS Analyst, PCICJ. Hiebert, Computing Support, PCIC2011 NARCCAP Users Meeting Boulder, Colorado, USA 08 APR 2011

1980-1999 Winter Climatology NCEP2, CRU, RCM ensemble

1980-1999 Winter Climatology NCEP, CRU, RCM ensemble

2050s change GCM vs. RCM

Change in extreme day of period

Projected 10th/90th percentiles

2050s projected 100-yr return period

Chart1

1008219932

10020166

1971-2000Observations

CRCM / CGCM3

RCM3 / CGCM3

RCM3 / GFDL

Return Period

2050s projected changes to extremes - Castelgar

Sheet1

1971-2000ObservationsCRCM / CGCM3RCM3 / CGCM3RCM3 / GFDL

100 yr P1008219932

100 yr T10020166

To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.

SummaryRCMs useful tools for decision making in areas of complex topography and steep climate gradientsImprovements from NCEP2 ~225 km (2.5) to 50 kmBiases comparable to difference between observationsFuture (winter) projectionswarmer, wetter, large changes to extreme temperaturesAnalysis of extremes underway need ensemble with multiple RCMs driven by multiple GCMs

Data sourcesNorth American Regional Climate Change Assessment Project (NARCCAP ): winter season (Dec-Jan-Feb)NCEP-DEO AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2): M. Kanamitsu, W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S-K Yang, J.J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter. 1631-1643, Nov 2002, Bul. of the Atmos. Met. Soc.CRU TS2.1: interpolated station observations 50 km resolution: Mitchell and Jones, 2005: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatology, 25, 693-712, Doi: 10.1002/joc.1181. Additional observations: Environment Canada climate stations, CANGRID, UDEL, NARR2m, VIC driving data

AcknowledgmentsHailey Eckstrand GIS wizard Seth McGinnis NARCCAP supportGerd Burger & James Hiebert Analysis of extremesDave Bronaugh GCM data Katrina Bennett VIC historical dataset

*Thank you Comments, questions, criticism: tmurdock@uvic.ca

More info on PCIC: www.PacificClimate.org

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