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Transcript of Towards Sustainable Fisheries in Europe Rainer Froese GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany [email protected] 3rd...
Towards Sustainable Fisheriesin Europe
Rainer Froese
GEOMAR, Kiel, [email protected]
3rd International Conference on
Progress in Marine Conservation in Europe 2012
18. - 22. June 2012, Ozeaneum Stralsund, Germany 1
Status of Global Fish Stocks
2
‚Stability‘ in world catches masks decline of fish stocks
3
Global Catches are Stagnating
Pauly and Froese, 2012
Global Effort Keeps Increasing
Pauly and Froese, 2012
Global Fish Stocks are Shrinking
If catches are stagnating
while effort is increasing
then fish stocks must be shrinking
Pauly and Froese, 2012
• The method to assess all global stocks proposed by Froese & Kesner-Reyes (2002), subsequently used by others, including Worm et al. (2006) for their 2048 prediction, is sound
• Global overfishing continues
• FAO, by using a subset of well-researched stocks, severely underestimates global overfishing
7
Status of Global Fish Stocks 2009
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Neue Bestände
Zusammengebrochen
Undeveloped
Developing
Fully exploited
Overexploited
Collapsed
Froese et al. Marine Biology 2012
9
European Stocks and Fisheries
10
Status of all European Stocks
11
Neue Bestände
Zusammengebrochen
Developing
Fully exploited
Undeveloped
Overexploited
Collapsed
Froese et al. Marine Biology 2012
• The Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982) requires stock sizes that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY)
• Johannesburg (2002) gave the political goal of 2015
• With ‘business as usual’ Europe will miss this goal by more than 30 years
12
Rebuilding European Fish Stocks
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Mea
n s
tock
siz
e
TargetPrecautionary
Overfished
Unsafe
Trend
Average size of 54 European fish stocks (bold blue line). The upper arrow indicates the path, if 75% of the stocks were to reach the internationally agreed target in 2015. The lower arrow shows the current trend.
Froese et al. Fish & Fisheries 2010
13
Fishing Pressure on European Fish Stocks
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Fis
hin
g p
ress
ure
(F/F
msy
)
TargetPrecautionary
Overfishing
TrendThreatening the stock
Average fishing pressure on 54 European fish stocks. The lower arrow indicates the path if 75% of the stocks were to be fished at the maximum sustainable rate in 2015. However, with the current trend that target will be
missed by more than 30 years. Froese et al. Fish & Fisheries 2010
UNCLOS CFP FAO/UNFAS JPOI Damanaki
14
• CFP contains over 600 regulations, some contradictory, without efficient control
• CFP aims for smallest viable instead of optimal stock size• Annual horse-trading leads to overfishing and uncertainty• Subsidies waste taxpayers money and create and
maintain overcapacity
15
Harvest Control Rules for Future Fisheries
16
Generic Harvest Control Rules for European FisheriesRainer Froese, Trevor A. Branch, Alexander Proelß, Martin Quaas, Keith Sainsbury & Christopher Zimmermann (2011)
Rules for sustainable and profitable fisheries based on 1) economic optimization of fisheries 2) honoring international agreements 3) true implementation of the precautionary principle 4) learning from international experiences 5) ecosystem-approach to fisheries management 6) recognizing the biology of European fish stocks
If these rules were applied, catches could increase by 63%
17
Harvest Control Rule Schema
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Biomass / B msy
Ca
tch
/ M
SY
B msy0.5 B msy 1.3 B msy
DepletedZone
OverfishingZone
BufferZone
TargetZone
MSY
0.91 MSY
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European Fisheries
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Biomass / B msy
Cat
ch /
MS
Y
B msy0.5 B msy 1.3 B msy
19
Profits in Fisheries
20
• Due to several lucky coincidences, the eastern Baltic cod stock is recovering
• Here we looked at options for management to fully rebuild the stock and make the fishery highly profitable
21
Simulated profits for the eastern Baltic cod resulting from four different management options. Froese & Quaas 2011
22
• The North Sea cod is outside of safe biological limits and the southern subpopulation may be lost
• Yet, legalized overfishing continues at 3 * Fmsy
• What if the fishery had been closed in 2003, following scientific advice?
23
Actual and Possible Stock Size
24 1
Actual stock size
Possible stock size
Three year closure
Froese & Quaas, in prep.
Actual and Possible Profits
25Froese & Quaas, in prep.
Possible profits
Actual profits
Seafood Labels to the Rescue
• Definitions of ‚overfished‘ and ‚overfishing‘ that are compatible with international law
• 19% (FoS) to 31% (MSC) of certified stocks are overfished and suffer from ongoing overfishing
• But 61% (MSC) to 81% (FoS) of stocks with data are large enough and moderately exploited, which is better than the 15% in uncertified stocks
27
What‘s Coming
• Fishing industry borrows from natural capital at high shadow interest rates.
Martin Quaas et al., in press
• A simple method for estimating MSY from catches and resilience.
Martell and Froese, in press
28
News from the CFP Reform
• The Commission (Maria Damanaki) has presented an ambitious CFP reform proposal
• The Council of Agriculture Ministers has now decided upon its ‚compromise‘ position
• The European Parlament will present its position in November, then a new compromise has to be negotiated
29
The Council Compromise
• Postpone sustainable fishing for stocks without Fmsy estimates until 2020
• Lots of loopholes for continued overfishing, e.g. of vulnerable species in mixed fisheries
• Administrative monster for reduction of discards
• Continued subsidies
30
What is the Role of ICES in the CFP Reform?
• Presented a Harvest Control Rule that allows catches beyond MSY and fishing of collapsed stocks
• Presented a multi-species management proposal for the Baltic with heavy overfishing for cod, sprat and herring
31
European Fisheries
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Biomass / B msy
Cat
ch /
MS
Y
B msy0.5 B msy 1.3 B msy
32
ICESHarvest ControlRule
33
http://www.ices.dk/committe/acom/comwork/report/2012/2012/Baltic_multispecies_advice.pdf....
Fmsy Fproposed F
Eastern Cod 0.30 0.60 – 0.65
Herring 0.16 0.26
Sprat 0.35 0.46
Thank You
Questions?
Presentation and Papers available from
www.fishbase.de/rfroese
Rainer Froese
34