Towards successful, and sustainable, livestock futures worldwide
Transcript of Towards successful, and sustainable, livestock futures worldwide
Towards successful, and sustainable, livestock futures worldwide
Borlaug distinguished lecture
Texas A&M University, 3 March 2015
Jimmy Smith Director General ILRI
The global livestock sector: Changes ahead
40% of agricultural GDP and growing
4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock
FAOSTAT 2014(values for 2012)
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Cow milk has overtaken rice
Eggs havedisplacedmaize
Per capita global kilocalorieavailability from edible animal products
Source: Herrero et al (PNAS, in press)
Gains in meat consumption in developingcountries are outpacing those of developed
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Hypothetical: Ifdeveloping-countryper capitaconsumption rateequalled that ofdeveloped countries
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Rising demand for meat, milk and eggs is a global phenomenon . . .
. . . but demand is greatest in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
FAO 2012Based on anticipated change in absolute tonnes of product comparing 2000 and 2030
Percentage growth in demandfor livestock products: 2000−2030
Huge increases over 2005/7 amountsof cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050
From 2bn−3bntonnes cereals each year
From 664m−1bntonnes dairy each year
From 258m−460m tonnes meat each year
The global livestock sector: Opportunitiesand challenges
Opportunities: Why
The demographics of demand and supply open new, unprecedented, opportunities:
• To enable smallholders tocontinue to play central rolesin food and nutritional security
• To transform livelihoodsand rural economiesin developing countries
• To make animal agriculture more environmentally sustainable
Opportunities: Who
• 90% of animal products are produced & consumedin same country or region
• Most are producedby smallholders
• More than 70% of livestockproducts are sold informally
• 500m smallholders produce 80% of developing-worldfood
• 43% of the agriculturalworkforce is female
BMGF, FAO, ILRI
Smallholders still dominatelivestock production in many countries
Region(definition of ‘smallholder’)
% production by smallholder livestock farms
Beef Chickenmeat
Sheep/goat meat
Milk Pork Eggs
East Africa(≤ 6 milking animals)
60-90
Bangladesh(< 3ha land)
65 77 78 65 77
India(< 2ha land)
75 92 92 69 71
Vietnam (small scale)
80
Philippines(backyard)
50 35
Opportunities: How
This rising demand foranimal-source foodswill be met − one wayor another
We can meet thatdemand in economically viable, sustainable,equitable and healthyways that also reducepoverty and hunger
This requiresproactive action
Demand for livestock commodities in developing economies will be met – the only question is how
Scenario #1Meeting livestock demand byimporting livestock products
Scenario #2Meeting livestock demand by
importing livestock industrial production know-how
Scenario #3Meeting livestock demand by
transforming smallholder livestock systems
Scenario #3 is good news for rural economic transformation
Upsides of smallholder transformation
• The coming livestock transitionsand consolidations can helpmillions improve their foodproduction as well as health,livelihoods and environments
• Of the world’s 1 billion smallholderlivestock producers, some:﹣1/3 will find alternate livelihoods﹣1/3 will succeed in the market﹣1/3 could go either way
Responding:Livestock researchfor development
Trajectories of growth
• ‘Strong growth’– Intensifying and increasingly market
oriented often transforming smallholder systems
• ‘Fragile growth’– Where remoteness, marginal land
resources or agro climatic vulnerability restrict intensification
• ‘High growth with externalities’ (industrial)– Intensified livestock systems with
diverse challenges including the environment and human health
Trajectory
‘Strong growth’
Sector
Ruminant meat and milk, esp. in SSA, India− Pork in some regions
Issues
− Sustainable productivity - Market access and food safety− Zoonotic outbreaks
Opportunities
Novel approaches spanning sustainable productivity, markets, institutional and policy issues, risk analyses
‘Fragile growth’ Some smallholder andpastoral systems; little part in the production response
− Multiple endemicdiseases− Zoonoses− Adaptive capacity− Movement controls
Mostly public sector interventions, mitigating vulnerability, improving resilience
‘High growth with externalities’
Mostly monogastric− China for all commodities
− Environmental- Drug resistance− Climate impacts on new vector and pathogen dynamics− Disease scares
Modalities of operation with private sector largely established.Managing environment and health risks and consumer demand
Distinguishing opportunities
Research for development solutions
Food, equity,
environment, health
Policies, institutions and markets
- Policy development
- Foresight; trade- Livestock value
chains
Sustainable livestock systems
- Sustainable intensification
- Climate change: adaptation & mitigation- System resilience
Feed resources- Conservation &
use- Feed production- Feed utilization
Animal genetics and breeding
- Gene discovery- Genetic improvement
- Breeding strategies- conservation
Livestock – health- Vaccines &
diagnostics- Zoonoses; food
safety- Herd health
Greatest burden of zoonoses falls onone billion poor livestock keepers
Map by ILRI, from original in a report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012
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African swine fever:Threatens $150-billion global pig industry
Recent reports indicate ASF has moved into Belarus, Poland and Lithuania
Vaccines save lives of animals that bothincrease food security and reduce poverty
ILVAC – a global vaccine initiative
An bodytechnologies
Vaccinetechnologies
Cellulartechnologies
Diagnos ctechnologies
Genomictechnologies
Contagio
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pleu
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EastCoastfe
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African
swinefever
Consor aforresearch&productdevelopmentandcapacitydevelopment
PrivatesectorGALVmedCRPsNARSInter-govagencies
Improvedvaccinesanddiagnos ctools
Pested
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RiValleyfe
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Infec ousdiseaseresearch:basic&applied
ILVAC–avaccinepla orm
ECF Consortium: Improved vaccines to controllethal East Coast fever infections in cattle in Africa
Annual meeting, Addis Ababa, 9-11th February 2015
African swine fever: TAMU-ILRI planned research for generating a subunit vaccine (funding still required)
• TAMU developed two candidate multivalent vaccines• The vaccines are well tolerated by piglets & stimulate robust antibody & T-cell
responses in the animals• Below left: The antibodies induced were shown to recognize the ASF virus
Studies to determine protective value of the vaccines is pending (Funding)
• Above right: Challenge with virulent Kenyan ASF virus to test vaccine efficacy will be performed in ILRI BSL2 pig unit using virulent Kenyan ASF virus isolated & characterized by ILRI
Food safety
• 90% of animal products are produced and consumed in the same region
• Over 70% of livestock productsare sold ‘informally’
• There are major opportunities toensure that milk, meat and eggs aresafe for consumption (e.g. viarisk assessments and risk- ratherthan rule-based regulations)
• ‘Intensifying’ livestock production systems bring people and animals closer together, increasing the threat of zoonotic disease outbreaks and spread
ILRI–Texas collaboration:Exporting live cattle and shoats and animal products: Ethiopia (2008)
• Risk fromproperly handledcarcasses, meatand meat productsis negligible
• Risk fromlive cattle or shoatsintroducing pathogensof concern is important
LiveGeneDelivering improved genetics to the world’s small-scale livestock keepers
TargetingGene
DiscoveryDelivering
Genetic Gains
Prioritizing geography, environment, climate and social change, traits, species, breed.
Adaptive alleles, characterization, conservation, Genome editing
Digital recording platforms. Phenotyping and farmer feedback.
Integrated data – comms, bio-repository, phenotyping, feedback, bioinformatics.
Partnerships and networks
Capacity Development
New tools allow us to look in new placesfor sources of variation – including wildlife
Comparative gene network
and sequence analysis
allows us to ask new kinds
of questions about genomes
– eg “what is different about
this (group of) species
compared to all other
mammals”
“traditional” linkage mapping requires crosses – so initial discovery
is limited to variants within a species
Cow NDama KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSPLHTLCEREKSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK
Cow Boran KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTLCEREKSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK
Human KFISRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTVCEREHSTVPWFVKQCIEAVEK
Pig KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTVCERENSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK
Chicken KFISRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHLVCEHENSTVPQFVRQCIKAVER
Salmon KFISRRPSMKTLQEKGIIKDRVFGCHLLALCEREGTTVPKFVRQCVEAVEK
Genotype data is relatively cheap and easy to obtain: Phenotype data remains a challenge
Can we skip a generation of technology?
• Fast, light, cheap performance data harvesting.
• Cheap sensors, mobile platforms, crowd sensing…..
• Simultaneously providing management information to the farmer and performance data to the breeder.
Identify and deliver variantsassociated with adaptation
Genotyping Phenotyping
Adapted & productive livestock
Genome editing
Targeting
Data systems
Delivery systems
• 70% of production cost – FEED
• 70% of feed – CROP RESIDUES
• Potential huge demand for grain for MONOGASTRICS
• Opportunities:
– Improved crop residuequantity and quality
– Improved use of crop residueswith other feed resources
– Balancing trade offs in biomass use
– Use of sorghum and other alternatesto maize for monogastrics
Research-based livestock feed successes
Feed opportunities
• Produce more and better quality– Crop varieties with improved
residue quality/quantity– Forages
• Better use available feed– Via processing (chopping)– Feed mixtures (rations)
• Import feed into the system– From areas of surplus to deficit– Concentrates
• Potential environmental ‘win-win’
ILRI–Texas collaborations inlivestock and environment issues
• Feed the Future Innovation Labfor Small-scale Irrigation- Exploring feed options
• Use of systems models- Africa RISING- LIVES
• Research evidence forsmallholder dairying included:
﹣Risk analysis ofinformal milk marketing
﹣Employment and incomebenefits for the poor
• Business/market developmentlinks poor livestock producersand feed suppliers to moresophisticated input/output systems
﹣A dairy ‘hub’ approachhas been widely adopted
Research-based livestock market successes
Global greenhouse gas efficiencyper kilogram of animal protein produced
Large livestock production inefficiencies
in the developing world present an opportunity
Herrero et al PNAS (in press)
GHG emissions to 2050 assuming developing countries do NOT improve their efficiencies
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GHG emissions GT CO2 eq per annum assuming developed country levels remain at 1.3 kg/CO2 eqper kg milk while developing countries remain at
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GHG emissions to 2050 assuming developing countries DO improve their efficiencies
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Image credits
Slide cover:
(Left) Gond painting, 2012, by Kaushal Prasad Tekam (via Pinterest
(Middle) Untitled, by Kalam Patua (via Asia Art Archive)
(Right) Sacred cows, by Vidushini (via Novica)
Slide #11: Sacred cows, by Vidushini (via Novica)
Slide #12: Tingatinga painting (via InsideArtAfrica.com)
Slide #14: Untitled, by Kalam Patua (via Asia Art Archive)
Slide #16: Kalighat painting (via Pinterest)
The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is
given to ILRI.
better lives through livestock
ilri.org
Thank you!
The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is
given to ILRI.
better lives through livestock
ilri.org