Towards Stability and Reform Egypt... · The WEF’s Global Competitiveness Report (2013-14) ranked...

Middle East Council

EGYPT 2017 Towards Stability and Reform

Charlotte Leslie MPLeo Docherty

MARCH 2017

Conservative Middle East Council: TOWARDS STABILITY AND REFORM


INTRODUCTION

During mid-March 2017 a Conservative Middle East Council (CMEC) delegationtravelled to Sharm El Sheikh and Cairo to meet a wide range of Egyptian businessmen, journalists, government ministers, MPs, former diplomats and students. The delegation also met with Egypt’s Foreign Minister HE Sameh Shoukryand the President of Egypt HE Abdel Fateh El Sisi who generously engaged the delegation in an expansive and frank discussion.

The purpose of the delegation was to gain a deeper understanding of the UK-Egyptrelationship and continue the longstanding interest in Egypt that CMEC has pursuedsince 2010. The last CMEC delegation to Egypt had taken place in January 2016when a tangible sense of relief was observed among the population as a long periodof political turmoil seemed to have given way to relative stability.

This sense of relief was still evident at varying levels among the many people the delegation met on this most recent visit. But it was also overlaid by a dogged resolveto see through difficult but necessary economic reforms that have impacted all levelsof society and the middle classes most sharply.

The most persistent concern was frustration at the way in which the continued banon direct flights from the UK to the resort of Sharm El Sheikh (which at its heightreceived up to 1m British vistors annually) was critically damaging the Egyptianeconomy, and unintentionally undermining the UK-Egypt relationship, giving causefor some Egyptians to ask if there was an undeclared political motive behind the ban. The delegation reassured all of its interlocutors this is certainly not the case, andthat the UK regards Egypt as a critical ally whose success, stability and prosperity is -besides many other things - a matter of national interest to the UK.

The day after the delegation returned from Egypt, the UK Government followed theUS Government in banning electronic items from cabin-baggage, from airports in sixcountries, including Egypt.

1


2

KEY FINDINGS

1. Egypt has stabilised and is undergoing significant economic reforms.

Egypt is the largest Arab state with an estimated 91 million people (half of whom are under 24 years of age) and has the third largest economy after Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The UK remains the biggest foreign investor in Egypt. In 2012 the UK accounted for 49% of FDI into Egypt – $5.8 bn.Unemployment is reported to be 30 % for women and 9% for men. President Sisi recognises and prioritisesthe scale of the economic challenge facing Egypt:

Economic Problems lie at the heart of Egypt’s problems…we have a plan…we have been candid withthe Egyptian people and they understand…

When the last CMEC delegation visited in January 2016, devaluation was mooted with uncertainty. Now, as a key condition of a $12bn IMF loan secured in November 2016, it is underway. As a consequence, the Egyptian Pound has halved in value against the dollar and inflation is running at 30 %,nearer 40% for foodstuffs. The reaction to this among the population has been muted – reports and observation suggest that the Egyptian population broadly acknowledge that this is a tough but necessarymeasure. Bread subsidies have been kept in place for the poorest and, unlike in 1977 - when bread riotsfollowed President Sadat’s attempt to end food subsidies to meet IMF and World Bank loan conditions -there have been no significant public protests.

President Sisi described a variety of measures that Egypt is implementing to become more investor friendly.He recognised delay in payment to foreign investors as a major investment barrier and described the payments that the government is now making to oil majors such as Shell that were owed a total of $6bn– demonstrating that foreign investors can take their profits out of Egypt.

He also detailed ongoing large government infrastructure projects to support industry, including 7500kmof new roads.

2. Egypt faces a major challenge in educating its population

In addition to the current challenging economic reforms, Egypt also faces a longer-term economic issueof an education crisis, and President Sisi opened his remarks to the delegation with this priority.

The WEF’s Global Competitiveness Report (2013-14) ranked Egypt nearly bottom of 148 countries forthe quality of its primary education and 118th out of 148 for the quality of its higher education andtraining. Less than 35% of Egypt’s population speak English according to research carried out by theBritish Council. Poor education and a dysfunctional, practically unregulated state-school system increas-es the risk of radicalisation

A group of students whom the delegation met at the British Council indicated that the Government run state schools were not fit for purpose; that education was seen as optional in these schools and that teaching quality was extremely poor. None of these bright, ambitious students would consider workingas a teacher in a government run school.

President Sisi stated that $150 bn of the IMF loan would be invested in education and requested that UKhelp provide the hundreds of English teachers that are required by Egypt to meet its needs. He said:

We need an educational breakthrough


The UK is well placed to assist. Britain has world-class educational organisations which it may be possibleto engage in Egypt. In 2015-16 23,000 Egyptians learned English at the British Council’s teaching centresin Cairo and Alexandria and 110,000 people attended British Council activities, exhibitions and festivalssupported by the British Council and 32 million people viewed or listened to British Council broadcastcontent. It is interesting to note that 60% of Egypt’s population have smart phones. When the delegationspoke to a group of young Egyptians in the British Council nine out of ten said they were users ofFacebook.

The same group of young Egyptians expressed a mixture of cautious hope for the future, and an acknowledgment that Egypt had very tough economic challenges ahead. The one thing that united them was a desire to achieve a higher educational standard – preferably abroad. Some said they wouldreturn to Egypt after studying abroad.

3. Egypt is fighting terrorism in the Sinai and supports the Libyan National Army

President Sisi sees fighting jihadist terrorism as one of his primary missions. Central to his world view isthe conviction that political Islamism of the type espoused by the Muslim Brotherhood and violentJihadism are shades of the same colour, are inextricably interlinked, cannot be moderated, and must bedefeated. These sorts of fundamentalist people, he stated, were not real Muslims.

We are raising monsters. They will stay monsters and won’t be domesticated.

We must stop evil people using religion as a fake cloak.

Frustration that the West did not see the oppressive and violent turn that the Muslim BrotherhoodGovernment under Morsi took against Egypt’s Coptic Christian population in 2012-2013 was a recurringtheme of frustration amongst many. There was a widespread belief that were the realities of that periodmade known, it would affect the UK’s view of the Muslim Brotherhood organisation globally.

Therefore linked to this is President Sisi’s pride in the fact that by contrast, Egypt’s Coptic Christian populationhave been protected during his tenure. Reference was made to a new Coptic Cathedral that is due to open inCairo next to a Mosque, funded by a public subscription, into a joint bank account for both the church andthe mosque.

We are the only Muslim country in the world that is building churches for Christian communities…

President Sisi also referred to his hope that Cairo’s Al Azhar university – as a famous centre of IslamicScholarship, should endorse and spread moderate Islam as a means of countering centres of extremistideology.

In terms of domestic pressures, the ongoing insurgency in North Eastern Sinai is a Egypt’s most pressingconcern. The Egyptian military has managed to contain the trouble in a small area within the north eastof the Sinai peninsula.

The challenges facing Egypt’s neighbour Libya is viewed by the Egyptians in similar terms – that of fightingterrorism and bringing security and stability back to an ungoverned space that has become a vacuumexploited and occupied by jihadist militias. Libya appears to be Egypt’s most pressing foreign policy concern. President Sisi articulated Egypt’s policy very clearly:

a. Libya must maintain its territorial integrity and stay united.b. The Libyan National Army must pacify the country and defeat the militias.c. Libya’s House of Representatives (HoR) should be supported and recognised as the basis for democracy

in Libya.d. The militias must be defeated militarily and not allowed to bend the political process to their own ends.e. The International Community must deprive the militias of the supply of money and weapons. As things

stand the UN arms embargo only impacts the LNA.

3


4

In responding to a question regarding the UK’s role in Libya, he expressed his desire that the UK exert ‘one face’ against terrorism.

The President was also very clear about the chaos in Libya being a source of the migrant crisis in theMediterrranean:

If we don’t fix Libya people will continue to leave for Europe…

4. Urgent action must be taken to restart flights to Sharm El Sheikh as soon as possible

During a day spent in Sharm El Sheikh the delegation experienced the much-improved physical securityin and around the Airport and the resort and observed patrolling operations by the Egyptian police. It wasclear to all delegates that huge efforts have been made by the Governor of Sharm El Sheikh to improvesecurity measures in place.

The major obstacle to the resumption of direct UK-Sharm flights appears to be a lack of partnership atthe highest level between UK and Egypt on matters of intelligence and security – perhaps illustrated by thefact that the perpetrator/s of the bombing of the Russian Metrojet in October 2015 (the incident whichgave rise to the ban in the first place) have not been apprehended.

Once progress has been made on this case and once British and Egyptian agencies have established fullhigh level cooperation, direct flights to from the UK to Sharm El Sheikh must be restarted as a matterurgency.

The continuation of the ban is having a significant impact on the Egyptian economy. Before the revolutionof 2011, 2m British tourists visited Egypt annually. After the revolution that number dropped to 900,000.Now, 200,000 British tourists visit and very few go to Sharm El Sheikh because of the lack of direct flights.In 2010, 60,000 passengers passed throught the airport at Sharm El Sheikh. Today it is 4,000.

Tourism is critical to Egypt’s economy as a whole, generating in excess of $12bn annually including ahighly significant foreign exchange. The delegation met hotel staff, hotel owners and individuals involvedat every level of the Egyptian tourism industry in Sharm El Sheikh who are suffering economicallybecause for the sudden and catastrophic decline of visitor numbers.

Before the flight ban around 300,000 people were employed in the tourism industry in Sharm El Sheikh,of whom around 10% were non-Egyptian, and around 5000 British. Now, in the wake of the ban100,000 people are employed. It must be remembered that these employees tend to have large numberof dependents. The loss of one salary therefore can have a negative impact on many members of a largefamily group.

One hotelier said that despite having retained his staff during the flight ban so far, he would have nochoice but to sack his 2,000 employees in June of this year unless the situation changed. At a time whenEgypt is fighting violent jihadist extremism the risks associated with large scale unemployment and thetendency for extremist to prey on disaffected and jobless young people must be remembered. A hoteliersaid:

The ban is a bonus for the terrorists in signalling that they can wreck economies…anywhere can bebombed – look at London, at Paris, at Brussels…

Furthermore, the grievous impact of the flight ban on the broader Egypt-UK bilateral relationship mustbe urgently acknowledged. Many Egyptians in the tourism industry observed how the British holidaymakers did not cancel holidays to Sharm El Sheikh during the turbulent period following the turbulencein 2011.


5

In 2011, we thought, we will be alright because the British are still here. They have not left us, the Britishare friends.

But due to the fact that the ban is now in its 18th month, because of its highly unfortunate coincidenceof President Sisi’s visit to London in October 2015 with the Metrojet tragedy and the implementation ofthe flight ban, there is a rising feeling among many Egyptians that it is in some way politically motivated,and that a friendship has been ‘betrayed’. Hoteliers we met questioned why Germany and otherEuropean countries have returned direct flights to Sharm El Sheikh, but not Britain.

The delegation also detected an issue in communication as to what would constitute the conditions forre-instating direct flights. Many involved in resort and airport security at Sharm El Sheikh repeated thatthey believed they had met the 25 practical conditions set out by the British for resumption of flights,and believe that an agreement has not been honoured.

This sense that the ban is politically motivated is often conspiratorially linked to a belief that the UK isin some way sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood due to the fact some of its prominent membershave lived or studied in the UK.

There is also frustration among the political class in Egypt about a perceived naivety in the UK about theintolerant nature of the Brotherhood and its function the public face of a movement that is in reality fundamentalist and a sponsor of violence. These points were made repeatedly during a discussion MPs from the Egyptian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee. The same MPs also described at length the suffering of Egypt’s Coptic Christians (who make up some ten per cent of the Egypt’s 92m people) underthe Brotherhood Government:

Why does the UK host the Brotherhood? - they have killed many Copts in Egypt…

Post-delegation development: Cabin-baggage electronics ban

The day after the delegation returned, the USA announced a cabin-ban on computers and larger electronicson flights from eight MENA countries, including Egypt. The UK followed later that day in making a similarban on UK-inbound flights from airports in six MENA countries.

This report cannot question the validity of the ban and the intelligence on which it is based. However it isvital that following the diplomatic effects of the ban on flights to Sharm El Sheikh, such decisions includerobust measures to mitigate deterioration to diplomatic relationships, to intelligence sharing, and widersecurity collaboration in the region which are vital to the safety of UK citizens.


EGYPT TIMELINEKEY EVENTS FROM 2011 TO PRESENT

2011

25 January to Egyptians stage nationwide demonstrations against the rule of President Hosni 11 February Mubarak. Hundreds of protesters are killed as Mubarak and his allies try to

crush the uprising.

11 February Mubarak steps down and turns power over to the military. The military dissolves parliament and suspends the constitution, meeting two key demands of protesters.

March 19 In the first post-Mubarak vote, Egyptians cast ballots on constitutional amendments sponsored by the military. The measures are overwhelmingly approved.

28 November 2011 Egypt holds weeks-long parliamentary elections. to 15 February In the lower house, the Muslim Brotherhood wins nearly half the seats, and 2012 ultraconservative Salafis take another quarter. In the largely powerless upper

house, Islamists take nearly 90 per cent of the seats.

2012

23-24 May The first round of voting in presidential elections has a field of 13 candidates. Morsi and Ahmed Shafiq, the last prime minister under Mubarak, emerge as the top two finishers, to face each other in a run-off.

16-17 June Egyptians vote in the presidential run-off between Morsi and Shafiq. Morsi wins with 51.7 per cent of the vote.

19 November Members of liberal parties and representatives of Egypt's churches withdraw from the 100-member assembly writing the constitution, protesting attempts by Islamists to impose their will.

22 November Morsi unilaterally decrees greater powers for himself, giving his decisions immunity from judicial review and barring the courts from dissolving the constituent assembly and the upper house of parliament. The move sparks days of protests.

30 November Islamists in the constituent assembly rush to complete the draft of the constitution. Morsi sets a Dec 15 date for a referendum.

4 December More than 100,000 protesters march on the presidential palace, demanding the cancellation of the referendum and the writing of a new constitution.

15-22 December In the two-round referendum, Egyptians approve the constitution, with 63.8 per cent voting in favour. Turnout is low.

2013

25 January Hundreds of thousands hold protests against Morsi on the 2-year anniversary of the start of the revolt against Mubarak.

30 June Millions of Egyptians demonstrate, calling for Morsi to step down. Eight people are killed in clashes outside the Muslim Brotherhood's Cairo headquarters.

6


1 July Large-scale demonstrations continue and Egypt's military gives the two sides 48 hours to resolve their disputes or it will impose its own solution.

2 July Military officials disclose main details of their plan if no agreement is reached: replacing Morsi with an interim administration, cancelling the Islamist-based constitution and calling elections in a year.

3 July Deadline for Morsi and opponents to come to agreement, or the military says it will impose its plan. Military ousts Morsi, suspends constitution and imposes interim technocrat government.

8 July Interim President Adly Mansour appoints 10 legal experts to submit constitutional amendments to a 50-member committee of religious officials, politicians, unionists and army officers.

26 November Chairman of the 50-member constitution committee, Amr Moussa, submits new draft Egyptian constitution to President Mansour.

2014

14-15 January Voters overwhelmingly approve Egypt’s new constitution, with 98.1% voting “Yes”. The turnout among eligible voters was 38.6%.

25 January Demonstrations to commemorate the 3rd anniversary of the 2011 revolution result in deadly clashes with security forces around Tahrir Square.

26 January Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis shoot down an Egyptian military helicopter in the Sinai Peninsula.

23 February Hazem El-Beblawi’s government announces its resignation after holding power for seven months. Interim president Adly Mansour appoints Ibrahim Mehleb to the post of Prime Minister and tasks him with forming a new government.

27 February Interim president Adly Mansour issues presidential decrees to reconstitute the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and the National Defence Council.

17 April David Cameron commissions a government review of the activities of the Muslim Brotherhood in the UK and of government policy towards the organisation.

24 March and 28 April Minya Criminal Court hands preliminary death sentences to 529 supporters of

the Muslim Brotherhood in March and 683 others in April.

28 April - Youth Movement is banned by the Cairo Court for for “espionage”6 April and “activities that distort Egypt’s image”.

26-28 May Egyptians vote in a presidential election. Former army chief Abdul Fattah al-Sisi secures 96.9% of the vote (47.4% voter turnout).

17 June Prime Minister Ibrahim Mehleb forms a new cabinet; the first one under al-Sisi’s rule.

5 August President al-Sisi announces a new Suez Canal project to dig a 72-kilometre canal alongside the original, to be ready in a year.

9 August Egypt’s Supreme Administrative Court dissolves the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP).

24 October Attacks against the armed forces claim the lives of at least 31 Egyptian soldiers and injure over 25, leading the government to enforce a 3-month state of emergency in areas of North Sinai and the indefinite closure of the Rafah border crossing to the Gaza strip.

7


28 October Border evacuations begin as the armed forces start to create a buffer zone along Egypt’s border with Gaza in order to eliminate smuggling tunnels underneath the border.

10 November Ansar Beit al-Maqdis pledges allegiance to Isil and rebrand themselves ‘State of Sinai’.

29 November Charges against former President Hosni Mubarak, which include ordering the killing of protestors during the January 2011 revolution, are dismissed.

2015

16 February Egyptian aircraft bomb Isil positions in eastern Libya.

9 May A Cairo court sentences Mubarak and his two sons to three years in prison on corruption charges during a retrial.

16 May An Egyptian court sentences Morsi and more than 100 others to death over a mass prison break during 2011 uprising.

30 June Prosecutor-General Hisham Barakat and three members of the public killed in suspected Isil car bomb attack in Cairo.

13 October Cairo court orders release of Alaa and Gamal Mubarak on basis they served sentence when detained before trial.

17 October to 2 December Parliamentary (House of Representatives) elections

Egyptian parliamentary elections to the House of Representatives are held in twophases (from 17 to 28 October 2015 in the fourteen governorates of the UpperEgypt and West Delta regions; from 21 November to 2 December 2015 in thenine governorates of the Central Delta and East Delta regions).

Note: Egypt’s parliament is made up of 596 seats. 448 seats elected through theindividual candidacy system (candidates permitted but not required to be affiliatedwith political parties, 120 elected through winner-take-all party lists in four largeregional constituencies and 28 selected by the President.

Results: Of the 568 MPs elected, 325 are independents while 243 are party affiliated. The For the Love of Egypt coalition (an alliance of parties and groups led by former military intelligence general Sameh Seif Elyazal that support al-Sisi) securesall 120 seats allocated to the Party lists system in the election. 65 members of theliberal Free Egyptians Party (FEP), founded by business and media tycoon NaguibSawiris, secure the majority of independent seats among competing political parties. More than 50 members of Mostaqbal Watan (Future of Homeland) secureseats. The Al-Wafd Party win 43 seats.

Overall turnout in the elections was 28.3%

31 October Russian Metrojet Airbus 321, bound for St Petersburg, crashes in Egypt's Sinai desert 23 minutes after take-off from Sharm el-Sheikh. Militants linked to Isil claim responsibility.

5 November President al-Sisi visits London; the visit is overshadowed by the UK decision to halt flights to Sharm el-Sheikh following the Russian airliner crash.

31 December President Sisi issues a presidential decree appointing 28 parliamentarians to Egypt’s newly elected House of Representatives on Thursday.

8


2016

10 January Egypt’s first parliament in nearly four years is sworn in. Ali Abdel-Al, a constitutional law professor, is elected as speaker of the new parliament. Abdel-Al won a seat in the parliamentary elections in Upper Egypt as part of the For The Love of Egypt electoral list.

3 February Body of Giulio Regeni, an Italian Cambridge University student, is found by the side of a road in Cairo with signs of extreme torture, including cigarette burns, cuts and contusions, more than a week after he vanished.

26 April Egyptian police flood streets of Cairo in effort to prevent planned protests.

9 May Isil claims responsibility after four gunmen kill eight police officers in ambush in Cairo.

20 May EgyptAir flight from Paris to Cairo crashes into the Mediterranean Sea.

22 June Egyptian court invalidates decision by President Sisi to transfer two uninhabited islands strategically located in Red Sea over to Saudi Arabia.

11 July Egypt's foreign minister Sameh Shoukry arrives in Israel in hopes of reinvigorating stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

9 September Egypt's top prosecutor Nabil Sadek acknowledges for first time that Egyptian police investigated Italian student Giulio Regeni for two days before his body was discovered in Cairo.

19 September President Sissi meets Donald Trump at the Plaza Hotel in New York.

1 November Egypt votes in favour of Russian-led UN resolution on Syrian conflict, prompting economic retaliation from Saudi Arabia.

3 November Egypt allows its currency to float freely

11 November International Monetary Fund approves $12 billion loan for Egypt.

15 November Egyptian court overturns death sentence for Mohamed Morsi and five other Muslim Brotherhood leaders ousted in 2013 military coup.

13 December Isil claims responsibility for bombing of Coptic cathedral in Cairo that killed 25 people.

22 December Hours before it was set to be voted on in New York, Egypt withdraws a UN resolution it drafted calling for Israel to stop settlement activity in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

2017

23 January Donald Trump telephones President Sisi. Trump commits to providing military assistance to Egypt.

27 February Mohamed Anwar Sadat, a nephew of the former president Anwar Sadat, is expelled from Egypt’s Parliament for allegedly leaking the draft of a controversialNGO law to foreign embassies.

13 March Egyptian prosecutor orders release of Hosni Mubarak

14 March Russia appears to deploy special forces to an airbase in western Egypt near the border with Libya.

Middle East Council

Conservative Middle East Council55 Tufton Street, London, SW1P 3QL

t: +44 (0) 20 7340 6007 e: [email protected]: www.cmec.org.uk@CMECnews

The views expressed herein are those of the authors not of the Conservative Middle East Council or the Conservative Party.

CHARLOTTE LESLIE MPCharlotte Leslie was elected MP for Bristol North West in May 2010. She has written for a number of publications including The Telegraph, The Times, Prospect Magazine and The Spectator. She has a special interest in Middle East Affairs and is a Vice Chairman of the Conservative Middle East Council (CMEC).

LEO DOCHERTYLeo Docherty is the Director of the Conservative Middle East Council (CMEC). He is the author of Desert of Death: A Soldier’s Journey From Iraq toAfghanistan.

Towards Stability and Reform Egypt... · The WEF’s Global Competitiveness Report (2013-14) ranked...

Documents

Transcript of Towards Stability and Reform Egypt... · The WEF’s Global Competitiveness Report (2013-14) ranked...