Towards Environmental And Socio-economic Stability:Towards Environmental And Socio-economic Stability:

A VITAL ROLE FOR AIT.A VITAL ROLE FOR AIT.

byby

Professor Roger G.H. DownerProfessor Roger G.H. DownerPPresident Emeritus, resident Emeritus,

University of LimerickUniversity of Limerick

September, 2008September, 2008

Env

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Society

Soc

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• Home sapiens is a young species

• Highly intelligent

• Major impact on planet

• Destroy and exploit other forms of life

• Man inhabits planet – spaceship Earth

• Spaceship is of finite size

• Resources are finite

• Human population is increasing rapidly

(We are increasing number of passengers but not taking on additional supplies – not sustainable)

Ecological Footprint Of A Population Ecological Footprint Of A Population Or A Country Is:Or A Country Is:

The area of land and water required on a continual basis to produce the resources consumed and to assimilate the wastes thatit produces.

The biocapacity is the actual area of land and water available to that population or country.

Ecological Footprint Of Countries:Ecological Footprint Of Countries:(approximations from 2003 data)(approximations from 2003 data)

CountryCountry Ecological Footprint Ecological Footprint (ha/capita)(ha/capita)

Biocapacity Biocapacity (ha/Capita)(ha/Capita)

Surplus / Surplus / DeficitDeficit

Ireland 5.2 5.0 -0.2

Japan 4.8 0.9 -3.9

United Kingdom 5.8 1.7 -4.1

United States 10.3 6.7 -3.6

India 0.8 0.5 -0.3

Nepal 0.7 0.5 -0.2

Chad 1.4 2.5 +0.9

Indonesia 1.0 1.0 --

Vietnam 0.9 0.8 -0.1

Thailand 1.4 1.0 -0.4

WorldWorld 2.82.8 2.12.1 -0.7-0.7

• Ecological footprints of developed countries are 5-12 x greater than those of lesser developed countries

• Most countries are exceeding their biocapacity

• As populations grow, biodeficit of nations will increase further

• World is living in deficit

• Situation is not sustainable

Socio-economic PictureSocio-economic Picture

• 80% of world’s wealth is controlled by 20% of world

• >3 billion individuals survive on less than US$2/day

• Per capita income of richest 20 countries is 40 x greater than that of the 20 poorest countries

• Combined GDP of the 41 poorest countries is less than the combined wealth of the 7 richest individuals

• In the US, the annual spend on perfumes and cosmetics is US$20billion

• In Europe, the annual spend on cigarettes and alcohol is US$150billion

• 100million children never enter primary school

Such massive disparities are Such massive disparities are neither acceptable or sustainable.neither acceptable or sustainable.

Thomas MalthusThomas Malthus

Limits to GrowthLimits to Growth

World Commission On Environment World Commission On Environment And Development (WCED)And Development (WCED)

• Gro Harlem Brundtland

• Recognised the importance of economy, social equity and environment in ensuring a stable society.

RecommendationsRecommendations

• 5-10-fold increase in gross world industrial activity over the next century (WCED p. 15,89)

• Alleviation of poverty and raising standard of living of poor nations to that of developed world (WCED p. 1, 15, 17, 44)

• Environmental sustainability and preservation of the ecological base for development (WCED p. 17, 65)

Recommendations Recommendations encapsulated in mantra of encapsulated in mantra of sustainable development.sustainable development.

• Planet cannot sustain a 5-10% increase in industrial activity – already exceeding biocapacity

• Lesser developed nations cannot achieve standard of living currently enjoyed by wealthy nations – there is insufficient biocapacity

• Environmental sustainability is a bogus, non-scientific term – what does it mean?

ButBut

Brundtland Defines Sustainable Brundtland Defines Sustainable Development As:Development As:

“… development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” (WCED p. 43)

ButBut

Implementation of recommendations of Brundtland report will compromise

future generations considerably.

The term

‘sustainable development’

is an oxymoron.

Allows wealthier nations to continue to develop at the expense

of the poorer nations.

But What AboutBut What About

• Still untapped resources

• New technological developments

• Colonisation of other planets

• Massive decline in population due to war or disease

So what do you suggest?So what do you suggest?

Premise 1.Premise 1.

Only two realms with power and resources to effect major change – nation states and multi-national corporations.

Premise 2.Premise 2.

Public opinion influences governments and major corporations – second major super-power.

Premise 3.Premise 3.

World of business is changing – global enterprise, importance of supply chains, knowledge as commodity.

Premise 4.Premise 4.

Alleviation of global poverty must involve facilitation of economic independence – sustainable enterprise.

What are the desired outcomes?What are the desired outcomes?

• Developed nations must accept that continued industrial growth is not possible

• Some economic opportunity must be made available to lesser developed nations – IT and new business practices

• Public opinion must be mobilised to encourage nations and corporations to bring about change

• Research into new technologies and new sources of resources must be supported

What are impediments?What are impediments?

• Lack of political acceptance and understanding

• Lack of trained, educated work force in lesser developed economies

• Lack of adequate infrastructure in lesser developed economies (IT, transportation, financial services)

• Concerns about political systems in lesser developed economies (inefficiency, bureaucracy, corruption)

Political Acceptance And Political Acceptance And UnderstandingUnderstanding

• Awareness of problem• Self-interest prevails over wisdom – selfish gene

• Self-deception

• Global order

• Scientific literacy of most politicians is low

AIT can be catalyst for increased understanding.

Educational CapacityEducational Capacity

• Foreign investors need educated work force

• Long-term goals require commencement of educational programmes immediately after birth

• Upgrading of skills of existing work force

AIT can be major provider of educational services in situ and by IT.

InfrastructureInfrastructure

• Speed and flexibility are critical in modern business

• Requires efficient connectivity (IT and transport)

AIT can undertake research to find inexpensive solutions and provide the much needed management training and financial

services infrastructure.

Political SystemsPolitical Systems

• Trust in integrity of political leaders and structure

• Need for transparency

• IT enables greater transparency

AIT can help introduce IT to lesser developed countries and contribute to the

training of current and future readers.

ConclusionsConclusions

• Human population is expanding rapidly and can continue at this rate only by destroying other living things

• The inequitable distribution of wealth will lead to major global unrest

• The current environmental and socio-economic state of the world is not sustainable

• Developed economies must reduce growth expectations and reject the Brundtland myth of sustainable development

• Public opinion must be mobilised to demand that governments and corporations develop a new global socio-economic model which recognises the need for responsible environmental stewardship

ConclusionsConclusions (continued)(continued)

• High Priority must be given to enhancing third world infrastructure so as to attract foreign investment – this will mean transfer of jobs from developed nations

• The principles of sustainable enterprise should be promoted in under developed economies

• IT should be made readily accessible both for educational purposes and as protection against corruption

• Politicians should be helped to become more scientifically literate

AIT has a vital role to play in all AIT has a vital role to play in all of these activitiesof these activities..

THANKTHANK

YOUYOU