Towards a new longitudinal data set for the analysis of migration and integration in Switzerland...
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Transcript of Towards a new longitudinal data set for the analysis of migration and integration in Switzerland...
Towards a new longitudinal data set for the analysis of migration and integration in Switzerland
Ilka Steiner, Institute of Demographic and Life Course Studies (IDEMO) University of [email protected]
International Workshop on Methodological Challenges for the Study of Return and Circular MigrationTEMPER ProjectMadrid, 22-23 January 2015
Why a new longitudinal data set?
• Political/societal context: • The controversial public and political debate• The need for quality data• The diversification of migration patterns
• Statistical feasibility: The introduction of the Personal Identification Number • Legal context: A change of law allowing for record linkage• Scientific framework: NCCR “On the move” (www.nccr.onthemove.ch)
Content
• Why a new longitudinal data set
• Demographic Base• Demographic data• Conceptual framework• Measuring return, repeat and circular migration• Some limitations• Extensions
• How temporary and recurrent are current migration patterns?
Demographic baseDemographic data
Producer Target population Before 2010 After 2010
Migration Office (Statistical Office)
Foreigners (Swiss or foreign-born)
Central System of Migration (ZEMIS) Central Register of Foreign Nationals (ZAR)Automatic registration system of persons (AUPER)
Statistical Office Total resident population• Nationals and
non-nationals• Swiss or
foreign-born
Decennial Census (RFP) Population and Households Statistics (STATPOP)
Structural Survey (RS)
Demographic baseConceptual framework
1997-2013*
*without refugees and asylum seekers
Observations IDS
Stocks 73.1m 15.1m
Flows 15.9m 4.7m
Demographic baseMeasuring return, repeat and circular migration
STATPOP stock data: → country of residence 1-5 years ago→ validity of residence permit
Data set Migration specific variables (flow data)
ZEMIS<2010
type of flow: emigrationimmigrationnaturalization
arrival date (date of event)residence permitnationalitybirth statemotif of immigration/residence
mother’s origin
STATPOP>2010
country of departurecountry of destination
Demographic baseSome limitations • Discontinuity in the data in 2010
• Target population (Swiss, border-commuters, etc.)• Variables
• Registration process: • Self-declaration: delays or omissions• Absence of socio-economic variables for EU/EFTA-citizens (ZEMIS)• Decentralization of registrations: gaps, duplicates and wrong corrections
source movement Date permit nationality gendercivil
statusbirthday
flowsimmigration 06.11.2010 short-term Spanish M M 03.01.1979emigration 06.11.2010 short-term Spanish M M 03.01.1979immigration 06.11.2010 short-term Spanish W M 03.01.1979
stocks 31.12.2010 short-term Spanish W M 03.01.1979
Demographic baseExtensions
• Temporal extensions: i.e. 2014, 2015, etc.• Data extensions:
• Structural survey, >2010, sample, permanent resident population• Swiss Labor Force Survey, >1998, sample, permanent resident population
• Structure of Earnings Survey, >2012, sample
• Student statistic, >2010• Unemployment statistics (SECO-based), >1998• Contributions and pensions (AI, AVS, etc.), >1998• Statistic of social benefits, >2003
Permanent resident populationSwiss-citizensForeign citizens • detaining a permit that is valid for at least twelve months• have resided legally in Switzerland for a cumulative length of at least twelve months
How temporary and recurrent are current migration patterns?Definitions
Target population: Nationality: GermansAge: 18+Sample restriction: immigration between 2002 and 2007Duration of observation: 5 years from arrival
→ 208’289 individuals
How temporary and recurrent are current migration patterns?Types of flows
Types of recurrent flows:
→ 23% of migrants immigrate more than once
Maximum within 5 yearsInternational migration: 22 immigrations / 22 emigrationsChange of canton: 13 departures / 13 arrivals Change of communes: 5 departures / 5 arrivalsLongest absence=84 days / Longest presence=16 days
Immigration -> 80424 38.61
Immigration -> Emigration 80716 38.75
Immigration -> Emigration -> Immigration 15283 7.34
Immigration -> Emigration -> Immigration -> Emigration 13993 6.72
Immigration>2 / Emigration>2, Immigration>Emigration 9740 4.68
Immigration>2 / Emigration>2, Immigration=Emigration 8133 3.90
Total 208’289 100%
0. 00
0. 25
0. 50
0. 75
1. 00
dur at i on
0 1 2 3 4 5
Legend: Pr oduct - Li mi t Es t i mat e Cur ve Censor ed Obser vat i ons
Figure: Survival function for emigration, German residents, Switzerland
How temporary and recurrent are current migration patterns?Duration of residence before emigration
Source: Demographic base, Emigration of Germans during a five-year observation period that immigrated between 2002 and 2007
Figure: Survival function for emigration by age, German residents, Switzerland
How temporary and recurrent are current migration patterns?Duration of residence before emigration
0. 00
0. 25
0. 50
0. 75
1. 00
dur at i on
0 1 2 3 4 5
STRATA: age3=1 Censor ed age3=1 age3=2 Censor ed age3=2age3=3 Censor ed age3=3 age3=4 Censor ed age3=4age3=5 Censor ed age3=5 age3=6 Censor ed age3=6
18-24
50-64 30-39
65+
25-29
40-49
Source: Demographic base, Emigration of Germans during a five-year observation period that immigrated between 2002 and 2007
How temporary recurrent are current migration patterns?Conclusions
• 39% of the cohort stayed in Switzerland during at least five years → need to be taken into account
• Mobility of young people→ Importance of considering different migrant categories
• More than half of all emigrations takes place within the first year of residence→ Importance of the permit (governmental control?)
Thank you
Ilka SteinerInstitute of Demographic and Life Course Studies, University of [email protected]
The origin of the data baseLegal aspects
Federal Statistics Act (FSA)• 2013: The Federal Department of Home Affairs (FDHA) launched a partial revision
of the Federal Statistics Act (FSA) regarding data linkages (art 14a). • January 15th 2014: The new decree allows for the linkage of different data sources by
the SFSO staff as well as for the involvement of external researchers.
Art. 14.a.I: In order to fulfil its statistical duties, the Federal Office may link data, provided the data is rendered anonymous. In the event that data links involve data considered especially sensitive or that data links generate personal profiles, the linked data must be deleted on completion of the statistical analysis. The Federal Council regulates the details.
Source: SFSO – PETRA 1991-2010
German immigration and emigration flows, resident population, 1991-2010
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
ImmigrationsEmigrations
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000 Immigra-tionsEmigrations
German immigration and emigration flows, permanent resident population, 1991-2010
Demographic basePermanent vs. resident population