TOURISM IN THE FACE OF COVID-19

TOURISM AND COVID-19

• The world faces an unprecedented global health emergency, which will have an unparalleled economic impact and a deep social and development cost. 

• The containment of the pandemic is the utmost priority and the tourism sector is committed to support all measures taken to curb the outbreak.

• UNWTO is working closely with the World Health Organization (WHO), its Members States and the industry to ensure a coordinated and effective response.

• According to UNWTO’s Report on COVID – 19 Related Travel Restrictions, as of 20 April, 100% of all worldwide destinations have introduced travel restrictions in response to the pandemic.

• 97 destinations (45%) have totally or partially closed their borders for tourists.

• 65 destinations (30%) have suspended totally or partially international flights.

• 39 destinations (18%) are implementing the closing of borders in a more differentiated manner by banning the entry for passengers from specific countries of origin”.

100% of worldwide destinations have introduced travel restrictions in response to the pandemic.

TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS

• Considering the unparalleled and fast-evolving nature of the crisis, it is extremely challenging to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 on international tourism.

• On 24 March, UNWTO estimated international tourist arrivals would decline by 20% to 30% in 2020, back to the levels of 5 to 7 years ago.

• This would translate into a loss of 250 to 400 US$ billion in international tourism receipts – almost a third of the US$ 1.5 trillion generated globally.

• UNWTO will update its impact assessment of COVID-19 on international tourism on 5 May 2020.

INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS & RECEIPTS

2020 FORECAST

INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS, WORLD (%CHANGE)

6,4

0,13,0

-0,4

9,4

7,05,7 6,6

1,9

-4,0

6,74,84 ,7 5,1 4,2 4,8 3,8

7,25,7

3,7

-20

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(e)

2020(e)

(% c

hang

e)Source: UNWTO (e) Estimate

2020 (estimate)COVID-19

-20% to -30%

2009Global economic

crisis

2003SARS

epidemic

2001Sept 11th attacks

2020 FORECAST

INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS, WORLD (MILLIONS)

674 674 694 691756

809855

912 929892

952997

1.0441.097

1.1431.197

1.243

1.3331.408

1.460

1.170

1.020

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(e)

2020(e)

(mill

ions

)

2003SARS

-3 million-0.4%

2020 (estimate)COVID-19

-290 to -440 million-20% to -30%2009

Global economic crisis

-37 million-4.0%

Source: UNWTO (e) Estimate

International tourism coulddrop back to levels of 2012-2014

2020 FORECAST

INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RECEIPTS, WORLD (REAL CHANGE, %)

8,1

-2,0 0,2 -1,4

9,7

3,85,6 6,4

3,4

-5,4

5,74,9 4,2

5,7 4,73,6 2,7

5,2 5,03,0

-20

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(e)

2020(e)

(real

cha

nge,

%)

Source: UNWTO (e) Estimate

2020 (estimate)COVID-19

-20% to -30%(nominal)

2009Global economic

crisis

2003SARS

epidemic

2001Sept 11th attacks

(nom

inal

% c

hang

e, U

S$)

-30

2020 FORECAST

INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RECEIPTS, WORLD (US$ BILLION)

496 485 506555

658707

773

892

989

901979

1.0961.135

1.2241.285

1.227 1.253

1.351

1.4631.507

1.210

1.060

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(e)

2020(e)

(US$

bill

ion)

2003SARS

+50 US$ billion-1.4% (real terms)

2020 (estimate)COVID-19

-300 to -450 US$ billion-20% to -30% (nominal)

2009Global economic crisis

-88 US$ billion-5.4% (real terms)

Source: UNWTO (e) Estimate

ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT

- 290 to 440 million International Tourist Arrivals 5 to 7 years loss in number of tourists- 300 to 450 US$ bn Tourism Exports (receipts) 1/3 of 1.5 US$ trillion loss in Tourism Exports

Source: ICAO Air Transport Reporting Form A and A‐S plus ICAO estimates

International passenger traffic collapses with unprecedented decline in history

5

World international passenger traffic evolution 1945 – 2020*

ICAO account of monthly seat capacity show sharp declines in all regions

Source: International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO)

IATA’s forecasts Air Passengers to end 2020 at -48% with all regions affected in a very similar way, except North America

Source: IATA Economics

Importance of international tourism in countries with most confirmed cases of COVID-19 (over 30,000 cases), as of 14 April 2020

As of 14 April 2020, a total of 213 countries, areas or territories have reported cases of COVID-19

Countries with highest COVID‐19 confirmed cases

Share of World Tourist Arrivals (%)

Tourism Share of Exports in the country (%)

Share of World Tourism Receipts (%)

Share of World Tourism Expenditure (%)

United States 5% 10% 15% 10%Spain 6% 16% 5% 2%Italy 4% 8% 3% 2%Germany 3% 3% 3% 7%France 6% 8% 4% 3%United Kingdom 3% 6% 4% 5%China 4% 1% 3% 19%Iran 1% 5% 0% 1%Turkey 3% 17% 2% 0%Belgium 1% 2% 1% 1%Total 36% 40% 50%Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Note: Countries  with more than 30K COVID‐19 confirmed cases  to 14 April  2020, according to the World Health Organization (WHO)

INTERNATIONAL TOURISM & PREVIOUS CRISES

International tourist arrivals in Asia Pacific during SARS andworldwide during 2009global economic crisis,monthly growth (%)

+18

+12 +13

+4

-12

-40

-44

-31

-13

-4

-4

+2 +6 +6

+14

+5

+18

+3 +0

-2 -3 -8

-11 -12

-1

-10

-7

-2 -1 -1 - 1

+4 +3 +5

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

(% c

hang

e ve

rsus

sam

e m

onth

of p

revi

ous

year

)

(months before and after the start of the crisis)

Asia Pacific during SARS

World during global economic crisis

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)Note: Month 0 (zero) is considered to be March 2003 for SARS (Asia Pacific) and January 2009 for global economic crisis (World)

March 2003WHO declares global

health emergencydue to SARS

April 2003WHO issues travel warnings

(HK and Guandong)

June 2003WHO lifts its final travel warnings

October 2003First month of growth

in arrivals since SARS outbreak

October 2008US$ 700 billion US bailoutafter Lehman bankruptcy.Dow Jones drops 20%

March 20093rd consecutive quarterof GDP decline in G20

(Q1 2009)

April 2009G20 London Summitpledged to restore

growth, maintain supply of credit, recapitalise banking

system

Nov. 2009 First month of growth in arrivals since start of global recession

World - Cumulative change in international arrivals (1000s), by months

Note: From month 0 onwards, cumulative change is compared to same month of year prior to each crisis.Month 0 for Sept 11th crisis = Sept. 2001; for SARS = March 2003; for Global economic crisis = Jan 2009. Source: UNWTO

Impact of three previous crises on world arrivals

The recovery of lost arrivals was also the fastest after SARS (11 months)

Note: From month 0 onwards, cumulative change is compared to same month of year prior to each crisis.Month 0 for Sept 11th crisis = Sept. 2001; for SARS = March 2003; for Global economic crisis = Jan 2009. Source: UNWTO

Impact of three previous crises on most affected regions:

The Americas was the slowest to recover its lost arrivals after a crisis (42 months after the Sept. 11th attacks)

Cumulative change in international arrivals (1000s), by months

Source: UNWTO. Note: Arrivals refers to international tourist arrivals. Receipts are international tourism receipts (visitor spending in destinations).¹ Most impacted region is in terms of international tourist arrivals in the respective year. Europe was the most impacted region in terms of arrivals in 2009,but Americas suffered the largest drop in receipts: -8% (real terms)

Summary table - Impact of previous crises on international tourism

Crisis: Sept 11th attacks SARS Global econ. crisisyear: 2001 2003 2009

World arrivals (% change) +0.1% -0.4% -4.0%

month 0 (zero) Sept. 2001 March 2003 Jan. 2009

N. of months for return to growth 5 5 10

N. of months for return to previous volumes 14 11 19

World receipts (real change, %) -2.0% -1.7% -5.4%

Most impacted region¹ Americas Asia Pacific EuropeRegion's arrivals (% change) -5.9% -9.4% -5.3%

N. of months for return to growth 12 7 14

N. of months for return to previous volumes 42 14 29

Region's receipts (real change, %) -11.1% -8.1% -6.7%

TOURISM CAN ACCELARATE JOB CREATION

Globalemployment growth2010-2018 (%)

• After the global economic crisis, employment in accommodation and food services grew 35% from 2010 to 2018, outpacing the overall

employment growth (11%) Source: UNWTO according to data from the International Labour Organization (ILO). Includes estimates by ILO.