TOR for Consultancy to Develop Flood Forecast and Inundation Modeling System...
Transcript of TOR for Consultancy to Develop Flood Forecast and Inundation Modeling System...
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Draft
TOR for Consultancy to Develop Flood Forecast& Early Warning and
Inundation Modeling System including Topographic and Cross-section Survey of
Flood Plain and river water ways in Kosi Basin
INDEX
Sl.No. Content Page No.
1. Background 2
2. Objective of Consultancy 11
3. Scope of consultancy services 12
4. Schedule for completion of tasks 25
5. Data Services & Facilities to be
Provided by the client 29
6. Responsibilities of Consultant 30
7. Handling Restricted Data 30
8. List of Key Positions 31
9. Payment Schedule 34
10. Duration of Consultancy 34
11. Annexure 35
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TOR for Consultancy to Develop Flood Forecast & Early Warning and
Inundation Modeling System including Topographic and Cross-section survey of
Flood Plain and river water ways in Kosi Basin
1. Background
Bihar is India's most flood-prone State with 76 per cent of the population in the north living
under the recurring threat of flood devastation. Recurrent floods are devastating to Bihar’s economy
and undermine poverty alleviation efforts. Being flood prone not only affects existing investments,
but also is a disincentive for additional investments in Bihar. There is a need to develop a long-term
flood management strategy for Bihar based on analysis and stakeholder inputs that builds upon the
wisdom of the substantial documentation that currently exists on the problem.
The Kosi River avulsed into its paleo channels on 18th
August 2008 by breaching its Eastern
Afflux Embankment near Kusaha village in Nepal, about 12.92 Km. upstream of Kosi Barrage at
Bhimnagar. At the time of breach, the river discharge was below average flood and was about
162500 cusecs (4601 cumecs). This new channel of Kosi after the breach had drifted apart by about
112 Km from its pre-breach alignment by passing the barrage and the flood dykes built over the
years. In-depth analyses are pre-requisite to scientifically unravel the underlying causes so as to
evolve sound remedial measures. Prima facie, the basic cause narrows down to unabated streambed
aggradations due to heavy sedimentation triggering powerful flow vortices. These vortices cut
through the bank at vulnerable locations, thereby setting up the conducive conditions for the course
change.
Traditional efforts at flood management have focused on hardware systems, such as the
building of a system of embankments1,. Despite the largely structural solutions that have been the
focus of flood management in the past decades, the threat of floods remains as high as ever to the
detriment of economy and livelihoods in Bihar. There has been excellent Government of Bihar
documents (e.g. the 1994 Second Bihar Irrigation Commission Report, 2008 Sanyal Committee
Report etc) that point to the need for a mix of structural and non-structural measures. They also
emphasize that flood management needs to “form part of the overall comprehensive plan for
optimum development of water resources of a basin.” The Government of Bihar is intending to
strengthen the flood management and flood forecasting system after seeing the impact of Kosi
Flood 2008 under the ‘Bihar Kosi Flood Recovery Project’ (BKFRP) through a credit from the
International Development Association (IDA). The credit amount of US$220 million shall be used
1 Embankment hereafter also refers to all other structures like river training works, river bank protection works, etc.
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for the payments for goods, works, related services and consulting services to be procured under this
project.
The overall project objective is to support the flood recovery as well as future oriented risk
reduction efforts of GoB through (i ) reconstruction of damaged houses and road infrastructure (ii)
strengthening the flood management capacity in the Kosi basin (iii) enhancing livelihood
opportunities of the affected people and (iv) improving the emergency response capacity for future
disaster.
A variety of materials related to the status of floods in Bihar were produced using remote sensing
and geographic information systems (GIS) techniques. There is an opportunity with Bihar Kosi
Flood Recovery Project to build on this to improve GoB capacity to use state-of-the-art forecasts and
to enhance last-mile connectivity for flood preparedness and information management of Kosi River.
Fig. 1 Kosi Catchment in Himalaya
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1.2. Kosi Basin Characteristics
1.2.1 Origin
The River Kosi originates at an altitude of over 7000 m above MSL in the Himalayas. The
river is bound by the ridge separating it from the Tsangpo ( Brahamputra) River, while the River
Ganga forms its southern boundary. The eastern and western boundaries are the ridge lines,
separating it from the Mahananda and the Gandak/Burhi Gandak catchments respectively. The
highest peak in the world, the Mount Everest and the Kanchenjunga are also in the Kosi catchments.
The upper catchment of the river system lies in Nepal and Tibet. It enters the Indian Territory near
Hanuman Nagar in Nepal. It joins the Ganga River near Kursela in Katihar district.
1.2.2 Tributaries of River Kosi
In Nepal, this river is known as ‘Saptakoshi. It is formed by the confluence of seven smaller
streams namely the Sun Kosi, the Bhotia Kosi, the Tama Kosi, the Dudh Kosi, the Barun Kosi, the
Arun Kosi and the Tamar Kosi meeting above Tribeni, about 10 Km. upstream of Chatra. But for all
practical purposes, the confluence at Tribeni in Nepal is considered to be formed by the three major
tributaries out of the seven, the Arun Kosi from North, the Sun Kosi from West and the Tamur Kosi
from East. Arun, the longest of the three tributaries passes through Tibet, named there as Phung-chu,
drains the highest peak of the world i.e. the Mount Everest ( 8878 meter above MSL). The Tamur
Kosi drains the second highest peak, the Kanchanjunga and the Sun Kosi drains the eastern
Kathmandu valley in Nepal.
1.2.3 River Kosi in Plains
Below the confluence at Tribeni, the Kosi flows in a narrow gorge for a length of about 10 km., till it
debouches into plains, near Chatra in Nepal. Further down, the river runs in relatively flat plains of
Nepal terai consisting of sandy soil. The river flows through Nepal for 50 km. below chatra to
Hanuman nagar, before it enters the Indian Territory. From Chatra to Galpaharia the river flows in a
south-west direction in this reach, the westward swing of the river is restricted by the the
Mahabharat range. In the portion below Chatra, the river divides itself into several channels spread
over a width of 6 to 16 km. Below Hanuman Nagar, the river Kosi runs about 100 kms. In a sandy
tract and finds its way southward through a number of channels. After that, the river takes an
eastward direction and has a single defined channel. The main channel joins the river Ganga near
Kursela in katihar district. In plains of Bihar, the river has two important right bank tributaries, these
are the Bagmati and the Kamla balan. The other tributaries worth mentioning on the right bank are
the Trijuga and the Butahi Balan.
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Fig. 2 Regional map showing the course of the Kosi River and Embankment
1.2.4 Catchment
1.2.4.1 Catchment Area
The river Kosi drains a total catchments area of 74030 Sq.Km in India and other countries. Out of
the total catchments area of the Kosi, only 11410 Sq.Km lies in India and the rest 62620 Sq.Km lies
in Tibet and Nepal.
Table 1 Salient Features of the Kosi Basin
1. Total Drainage Area 74030 Sq. Km
2. Drainage Area in Bihar 11410 Sq. Km
3. Population in Bihar 66.55 Lakh
4. Water resources (Surface water) 52219 MCM
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5. Average annual rainfall 1456 mm
6. Total length of main river in Bihar 260 Km
7. Cropped area in Bihar 8694 Sq.Km
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Tributaries: Bagmati(R), Kamla Balan(R), Bhuthi Balan(R), Trijuga(R), Fariani dhar(L),
Dhemama dhar(L)
Table 2 Average Bed Slope of Kosi River In Different Reaches
Sl.No. Reach Average Bed Slope Remarks
1 0 Km. to 42 Km. 1 : 714, (1.4 m/Km.) Chatra to Barrage
2 42 km. to 68 Km. 1:1396,(0.716 m/Km) Barrage to Dagmara
3 68 Km. to 134 Km. 1:2222, (0.45 m/Km.)
Dagmara to near
Mahesi
4 134 Km. to 310 Km. 1:9090, (0.11 m/Km.)
Upto outfall in Ganga
near Kursela
The entire lower catchment is nearly a level country which is split into numerous “dhars” or the
old beds of Kosi river.
There are undulations and innumerable depressions called “Chaurs”, where waterremains
accumulated for most part of the year.
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1.2.4.2. Hydrology
The River kosi can be broadly divided into two parts from hydrology and hydrometeological point of
view. The upper catchment, which lies in Tibet and Nepal, comprises of about 80% of the total basin
area, has quite different characteristics with respect to the lower basin area ( i.e. 20% of the total
area) falling in Bihar. The upper catchment is mainly responsible for the hydrological behavior of
the river; where as lower catchment has little contribution to it.
1.2.4.3. Geology
The geology of the Kosi catchment, by and large, is unstable in nature and susceptible to heavy wear
and tear which ultimately increase sediment load in the flow of the river.
The drainage basin of the Kosi on the basis of soil characteristics can be divided into three zones:
(i) Upper catchment Zone- The upper catchment of the Kosi Basin lies totally in mountainous
region. The soils of this region are usually of three types, namely, (a) Mountain Meadow soil
(b) Sub-mountain soil and (c) Brown Hill soil
(ii) Mid area Zone- The mid area zone comprises the area between the mountainous and plain
portion of the catchment at the foothills of the Himalaya, also known as terai region, which
basically lies in Nepal. These terai regions have excessive growth of vegetation and weeds on
account of excessive moisture content.
(iii) Lower reach zone- Lower reach zone of the kosi basin in the basin in the plains comprises
large inland delta formed by the huge sandy deposit of the kosi river. On account of heavy siltation
of the order of 25 million cubic metre of sand/silt per year and thereby in the process of building up
the delta.
1.2.5. Morphology of The Kosi River
The Kosi River carries huge amount of sediment. The reason for that is that the river cuts across the
Himalaya sand, the Shiwalik ranges and high rainfall (mean1456 mm/yr) leads to extensive soil
erosion and landslides in its upper catchment. The silt load of the river is one of the highest in the
Indian sub-continent, about 95 MCM/yr. On reaching the plains, high aggradations of river bed and
sediment bed load offer enough resistance to the water, forcing the river to find alternate paths,
resulting in lateral shift of the river course. The river in the plain flows in several channels in a width
varying from 6 to 16 Km. The River before training used to move several km. in a year causing
excessive damage to life and property. Records show that between year 1736 and 1953 the river
moved through a distance of about 112 Km. westward till its course was confined through jacketing
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by constructing embankments on both the banks. Though shifting of a river is part of its natural
evolution process, other factors inducing this phenomenon could be earthquakes, landslides and
neotectonic activity. The Kosi River is responsible for many floods in Bihar. Afflux embankment
was constructed U/S of the Kosi barrage in a length of 12 km in the west and along 32 km in the east
to control the shifting and streaming the river towards the barrage. As far as the afflux embankments
are concerned, they are tied up at the two ends of the barrage and diverge upstream primarily to hold
the pool of water impounded behind the barrage and to contain the extent of submergence on both
sides of the river upstream of the barrage, both due to impoundment as well as due to backwater
effect of impoundment on the incoming flows. The afflux embankments get away from river
currents or velocities. To channelize the river flow in the downstream side, 125 km long eastern
embankment and a 101 km long western embankment were constructed with numerous spurs to keep
the river flow centrally. The building up of embankments on either side of the river confined the
river channel to some extent. The Kosi River has an average discharge of 55,000 cusec (1557
cumecs), which increases 18 to 20 times during peak floods. The highest flood recorded in recent
history of the river is reported to be 9,13,000 cusec (25854 cumecs) on 5th October, 1968. The Kosi
barrage has been designed for a peak flood discharge of ≈ 9,50,000 cusec. (26901 cumecs)
Fig.3 Showing Kosi River Course
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1.3. Flood Hazard
The Lower catchment of river Kosi and its tributaries are affected badly almost every year by severe
floods. As the river with its tributaries like Kamla Balan, Bagmati and Adhwara group emerge from
the hills and enter into plains of Nepal Terai and Bihar, their velocity of flow is reduced. This results
into increase in the depth of flow and reduction of silt carrying capacity. Due to reduction in silt
carrying capacity, silts are deposited into beds, resulting into rise of river bed and bank erosion. The
mouth of Channels also get choked too often causing shifts in courses, bringing new areas under the
grip of flood. This phenomenon is further attributed to the rise in the water level, which ultimately
results into overtopping and breaches of banks and flooding in the basin area. Breaches have
occurred in seven of the years from 1963 to 2011 and result from: (i) high discharge exceeding the
carrying capacity of the embankment, and (ii) intentional cuts along the jacketed portions of the
rivers by villagers. Outside of the mainstream of rivers, floods occur even when there is no
breaching, due to floods coming from tributaries, heavy rainfall in the local area and drainage
congestion.
1.4 Current Status of Flood forecasting
The flood forecasting organization of CWC has been conducting the flood forecasting work in the
Kosi river system since June 1970. At present there are three forecasting sites on the river Kosi,
namely, Basua, Baltara and Kursela with two base stations at Barahkshetra and Birpur Barrage. All
these sites are equipped with wireless system for efficient communication purpose. The method of
forecasting is practically on the basis of gauge to gauge co-relations among these stations in the
network.
The method used for formulating the forecasts by the Central Water Commission is gauge to gauge
correlation between the upstream (base station) and downstream (forecasting station) gauge on the
river stretch. This statistical procedure also takes into account the variation in travel time, variation
during rising and falling flood stage, and flood wave characteristics.
The procedure establishes the relationship between observed gauges at the forecasting station and
the base station using the historical data on gauges. These relationships are presented as correlation
graphs for respective stretches. There have been improvements brought about in these relationships
by incorporating the change in gauges to account for the changes in the river profiles due to
aggradations or degradations. Different correlation graphs have also been developed and used for
rising and falling stages. The flood forecasts are made at the following forecasting stations in the
Kosi system.
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Basua is the first forecasting site on the river Kosi where co-relationship between change in
discharge with change in gauge at Barahkshetra base station and the corresponding gauge
observations at Basua is developed having time of travel ie. Warning time as 24 hours. However, the
warning time at Basua forecasting site is reduced to 16 hour when co-relationship of discharge
released and gauge observation at Birpur barrage and corresponding stages at Basua is established.
Baltara is the second forecasting station on the river Kosi having co-relations of Gauge observations
between Basua and Baltara. The river Bagmati along with the river Kamla-Balan meets the river
Kosi at a point which is slightly upstream of Baltara. So the gauge at Hayaghat site on the river
Bagmati is also co-related with the gauge at Baltara which gives another parameter for forecasting at
this site. The travel time for Basua to baltara is 18 hours and from Hayaghat to Baltara is 28 hours.
Kursela,which is the third and the last forecasting site on the the river Kosi, is affected by the back
water of the river Ganga. Therefore, the gauge at Kursela is co-related with the the gauge at
Hathidah on the river Ganga as well as with the gauge at Basua. The travel time from Basua to
Kursela is 26 hours.
The overall performance of forecasting made at all three stations have been found to be quite
satisfactory when compared with actual gauge levels. However, the forecasting can be further
improved by increasing the warning time if more gauge –discharge sites being established by CWC
in the upper reach of the river Kosi In Nepal portion start functioning.
1.5. Need to improve current forecasts
The gauge to gauge relationship has a limitation of waiting for the forecast to be made till the flood
is observed through the gauge of the base station upstream of the forecasting station. Therefore in
the process, the possible travel time available in the form of catchment lag up to the base station is
lost that can be added to the total forecast lead time. Such lead time can be easily added by
introducing a hydrological model that can transform the observed rainfall into a simulated
hydrograph at the base station catchment lag time before it is observed.
The gauge to gauge relationship procedure is not incorporating any addition of flow between the
stretches from base station to the forecasting station. In a conventional hydrological modeling
approach such additional flow through the intervening basin is considered and thus provides the
opportunity of improving the forecasts. Further, there is need for improvement of lead time based on
rainfall/climate forecasts available NOAA, IMD, and European Centre for Median Range weather
Forecast, which can give three days or more advanced warning of rainfall events. Such endeavor has
been successfully tried in many countries including neighboring country Bangladesh. The rain gauge
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stations with wireless facilities have been installed but are not being used in the present procedure of
flood forecasting. If these rain gauges are converted into self recording and telemeter stations then it
is possible to enhance the forecast lead time.
The present system of forecasting is capable of providing the gauge forecast at the forecasting site
with the assumption that there is no breach in the embankments between the stretches. The method
also does not provide any other information on the water surface profile in the stretch that is very
crucial from the embankment safety point of view.
Another major limitation to correlation method is the availability of prediction only at selected sites
and not all along the river.
2. OBJECTIVES OF CONSULTANCY
The objective of this Consultancy services comprises two parts. The first part of this consultancy is
to conduct ground topographic survey of floodplain and cross-sectional survey of river ways
including its tributaries to develop appropriate Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The second part is to
equip the FMIS Cell with a comprehensive model/ suite of models for improved flood forecasting
and warning system based on the flood forecast utilizing currently available and anticipated through
real time aquistion hydrological, meteorological, and other data, upgradable Flood Forecast model
of the Kosi river from Barah-kshetra in Kosi basin to support effective flood management. This will
also include Inundation mapping tool to predict extent, time of arrival, duration and depth at the
community level in the case of breach of Embankment at any location, U/S as well as D/S of Birpur
Barrage based on DEM and topographic and x-section survey data of Kosi Basin including its
tributaries in North Bihar as well as in Nepal portion.
NB: The consultant staff would need to work in FMISC,WRD premises in Patna for the access to
and use of available data (topographic maps, DEM data, CWC stage/discharge data, etc).
The major tasks of the consultancy are given below:
a) Provide comprehensive review of current approaches to ground topographic survey, flood
forecasting & warning system and Inundation Modeling of river basins for better flood
management and disaster risk reduction purposes;
b) Detail topographic & cross-section survey of approximately 17000 sq.km for Kosi river
basin and its tributaries from Barah-kshetra (Nepal) to Kursela (Bihar) confluence with river
Ganga to develop appropriate Digital Elevation Model (DEM) aiming to 05 cm absolute
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and relative vertical accuracy for Development of a well caliberated and validated Flood
Forecast and Inundation modeling system.
c) Select and develop appropriate models and integrated hydrologic forecast and warning
systems to provide flood forecasts for any location with longer lead-time (at least 72 hours
before) and improved accuracy (compared to current status) with warning and inundation
maps in any location of Kosi river from Barah-kshetra to Kursela, confluence with river
Ganga in Kosi Basin including its all tributaries..
d) To design and develop necessary Plan for additionally needed measuring
equipment/structures (gauges, discharge and sediment), Supervisory Control and Data
Acquisition (SCADA) and telemetry options compatible with flood forecasting, early
warning and inundation modelling and also to develop their technical specifications, cost
estimates and bid documents of agreed option for procurement.
e) The consultant should also incorporate detail modalities for effective coordination amongst
government agencies responsible for collecting, interpreting, and disseminating warning
information to the public/users, direct community participation in deploying early warning
systems and the system that will be able to adjust to varying degrees of intensity of future
events.
f) Provide mapping features/software to display model results spatially (i.e. inundation zones,
flood levels, etc).
g) Provide hands-on training to build a team of flood forecasting professionals within the FMIS
Cell and the Department of Water Resources
3. SCOPE OF CONSULTANCY SERVICES
The Flood Forecast & Early Warning and Inundation modeling approach needs to take note of data
availability in Kosi River Basin including its tributaries like Kamla Balan and Bhutahi river and of
most of the catchments which lies in Nepal. The primary data for development of a well caliberated
and validated Model would depend upon precise level data at close interval across the river ways
and flood plain for creating a precise cross section i.e appropriate Digital elevation Model with a
precise vertical accuracy. Therefore the consultants responsibility within the scope of this
consultancy would be to conduct detailed ground survey in Kosi, Kamla & Bhutahi river basins in
Bihar along with the survey in Nepal region also. All these rivers are embanked almost completely
on both sides. In general the topography is almost flat with occasional subtle rise along the river
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banks. The plain is built by normal fluvial process hence typical landforms like abandoned River
channel, Natural levee and back swamps are present throughout. The ever changing course of rivers
draining through this region has left many remnants of old rivers; mighty and feeble; and associated
topographies, creating a complex network of low natural levees. It is these subtle topographic ‘highs
and lows’ which ultimately determine the pattern and extent of flooding caused by excess flow in
these rivers during monsoon.
Any modeling exercise would require shape of the land as a primary input. The present consultancy
package aims at addressing this challenging problem of creating a precise elevation model of river
and enclosing structures using modern survey techniques.
The Consultant’s services under this component will be to: (i) Prepare a survey plan along with
selection and fixation of additional Bench Marks, (ii) Carry out Topographic and Cross- section
survey using modern survey tools like DGPS linked ETS Survey Methods/Total Station/Auto Level
instruments in view of the speed of survey, computerization of information and possibilities for easy
updating of information, use for further spatial analysis or consultants can select another Survey
method to get the desired objective of the Client. (iii) Prepare outputs like Contour and DEM and
submit for verification.The model should be developed keeping in mind of theses constraints.
In addition to above the proposed forecasting model and Warning system in this consultancy will
consist of linkages to hydrological and spatial databases. The inundation mapping developed will be
dynamically linked to the Embankment Asset Management System (EAMS) and Hydrological
Information System (HIS) being developed by FMISC,WRD separately for Kosi river basin. The
application software shall be customized with user-friendly interfaces, and linked to the Spatial Data
System in Arc GIS environment, for generating model inputs, and to visualize model outputs up to
community level. The model results would also be web-enabled in the FMISC website. The system
should be able to convert the outputs to SMS alerts to designated recipients. Suggestions for
additional functionalities to improve ease-of-use and encourage utilization by the operators and the
FMISC,WRD are encouraged from the consultant. The consultant is expected to accomplish the
following major tasks:
Task 1. Review of Current Methodology of Ground Topographic survey, Flood Forecasting &
Early Warning and Inundation Modeling
The various activities in Task I include a review of current methology and approach of ground
topographic survey with all pros and cons. The consultant has to do the Reconnaissance survey of
the area of interest by visual observation supported with the high resolution satellite imegeries to
collect information and prepare a survey plan to finalize the complete sequence of working,
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establishment of control points and submit with the Inception Report on appropriately scaled index
maps. The consultant is required to select appropriate Survey of India (SoI)GTS (Great
Trigonometrical Survey) bench mark from the existing ones and prepare a table of all the GTS
benchmark and additional established bench mark for the whole survey area. This survey plan would
also reflect to ensure survey for timely job completion with desirable accuracy as per design norms
using the the most suitable latest modern technology.The consultant would also prepare a report that
will consist of the project appreciation, detailed scheduling of micro level activities, work output and
critical man power deployment schedule, proforma for data collection, identification of social and
environmental sensitive areas, key plan of the area, identification of various Government agencies
and project clearances, quality assurance plan (QAP) documents and clearances, if needed.
The task also include experiences in flood forecasting & early warning for weather and river flows in
the Kosi river basin, and identify possible approaches. The modeling approach should cover both
flash flood in the upstream portions, as well as longer duration riverine flood in the gauged main
stem as well as in the ungauged tributaries and persisting water-logging in the lower portions. The
detailed tasks will include:
a) Provide a general overview of conducting Topographic and X-section survey with their
technology, methodoly and accuracy and international experience with flood forecasting &
early warning systems. Evaluate existing flood forecast & early warning approaches and
inundation mapping in the Kosi river basin, and identify possible improvements.
b) Collect inventory data available from national and global sources for the Kosi river basin and
evaluate adequacy, frequency and data quality for possible use in the proposed flood forecast
& early warning and inundation model. The accuracy and reliability of rainfall estimates and
forecasts from global sources such as National Weather Service in the USA, and the rainfall
forecast from India Meteorological Department would be evaluated and appropriate modes of
integration in the flood models would be identified.
c) Recommend optimal upgrading of existing IMD and CWC network including telemetry to
better support flood modeling, particularly for the flash flood modeling (in Bihar portion due
to steep slope of river from Chatra to Birpur Barrage)where the resolution of rainfall data
may be inadequate to predict rainfall generated flash floods.
d) Evaluate a range of potential flood forecast models including statistical correlation, ANN,
stochastic models, and conceptual hydrological/hydraulic models using currently available
hydrologic and hydraulic data in the pilot basin of Kosi River system. Identify possible
package of appropriate models for improvement in forecast with regard to lead-time and
accuracy. Advantages /disadvantages and strengths / weaknesses of each option should be
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elaborated. The candidate model/s would be finalized after discussion with the FMISC,WRD
staff.
Outputs:
1. Inception Report reflecting Task 1 assignment and findings, Map and table of
Benchmarks, methodology to be used in conducting the survey and modeling approach,
including process report of consultations and actions taken
Task 2. Detail Topographic and X-sectional Survey and Generation of DEM
The activities under Task-2 is to collect precise level data at close intervals to generate cross-section,
contour and DEM, assisted with high resolution satellite images for precise targeting of crucial data
collection point. The tolerance for vertical accuracy should be well within 05 cm.
The consultant shall assess the quantum of work in advance and if need be; shall engage partner
firms to finish the survey work within stipulated time frame.
The combined approach would yield a better interpolation depicting ground shape as close as reality
across the selected river reaches and the associated embankments for creating a precise cross section,
from countryside NSL on one bank to countryside NSL on the other bank, including channel bed
profile. This will be done for an area of approximately 17000 sqkm of the Kosi basin in Bihar and
Nepal annexed map (Annexure-1),. This will provide all data on channel design, Embankment
layout and land-cover, channel long section (Thalweg), disposition of associated structures etc in a
strip pattern which would become an integral part of the flood and Inundation modeling systems as
well as Embankment Database Module which is being developed under separate consultancy in
parallel, which would support flood management functions in the State including maintenance of
existing embankment, anti-erosion works and flood fighting works etc. and planning of new flood
control structures. The details activities under this Task would include:
a) Preparation of survey plan and selection and fixation of additional Bench Marks. There are
many benchmarks, established by SoI in this area. The consultants are required to select
appropriate benchmarks from the existing one, extend to survey area, validate for accuracy
and reliability, establish additional benchmarks, erect permanent benchmarks and label them
properly for future use. They are required to prepare a table of Geographic co-ordinates and
elevation of these benchmarks for storage as well as future reference. A workplan in map
form shall be prepared before conducting actual benchmark survey so that FMISC or Field
officers under WRD could check that the objective of such a detailed survey is fully met. The
consultant would establish bench mark throughout the survey area in a manner that the detail
survey for cross section could be initiated from any point to any point, drawing reference level
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from a nearby benchmark. This uniform distribution of pre-checked and established
benchmark will also help in keeping “closing errors” under control.Permanent structure will
have to be erected for primary BM as per standards laid out in survey manuals and secondary
benchmarks may be marked on permanent structures like bridge piers, HT transmission line
poles, culverts etc. French (Seno Markers) pegs may be used wherever a permanent structure
is not available. In general a concrete pillar of 2 meter length, buried 1.5 mtr, would sufficient
but a different and more suitable design may be proposed by the consultant if found to be
more appropriate for this project area. Markings on concrete structures may be slightly
engraved and those on iron/steel structures may be painted with high quality paint. Any other
better options are always welcome however. This exercise is basically to ensure easy access
by future missions visiting the area for re-survey purposes. The drawing of layout plan would
be prepared in ArcGIS showing River Plan, Cross-section, Gauge location, all structures,
refrence points and other salient features along with the river and Flood plain.
b) Carry out Topographic and Cross-section Survey preferably using modern technology like DGPS
linked ETS Survey Methods supported with the Total Station and Auto Level instruments for the
approximately 17000 sq.km area of entire Kosi, Kamla, Bhutahi basins in Bihar including Nepal
portion from Barah-shetra upto border line for development of an accurate and realistic cross-
section and DEM. The consultants are free to select another method of survey but the primary
objective of the client would be fulfilled. The details of topographic and X-section survry would
include :
The cross-section in the corridor of the Main river for Kosi and its tributaries within
Embankment/ high banks would be recorded from bank to bank at an interval of 1
km longitudinal and shall extend at least up-to 500 m beyond the country side toe of
embankments or river banks on either side. The levels on each cross-section would
be recorded at suitable lateral intervals between 30M -50M depending upon the
width of the river and locations of breaks of slope. All breaks of slopes such as
embankment toes, top edges, berm, river bank, river terraces (if any) etc. must be
recorded. The section should be nearly perpendicular to the flow of the channel.
Start and end points of each section has to be marked clearly and precisely on a detail
base map of the area under study. This cross-section survey would also include the
cross-section at every spur supported with the hydrographic survey at nose of the
spurs located on both side of Eastern and Western Embankment and also at Eastern
and western Afflux bundh. The longitudinal distance may be increased in straight
approaches up to 3 km and a closer spacing less than 1km would be advisable at
17
meandering courses with the permission of the Engineer-in-charge. Bed level of spill
channel, tributary junction and canal outfall (if any) must be recorded as these are
crucial to flood water routing exercises.The terrain under question is practically flat
with little highs and lows but this subtle difference in elevation is of utmost
importance hence care must be taken to record such changes. This requires an
accuracy of +/- 5cm. Majority of rivers to be surveyed are small ones hence bed
depths should be recorded with direct methods rather than echo-sounders. Thalweg
of rivers must necessarily be recorded.
During surveys it is required to collect information on structures such as cross-
drainage works, spurs, river training works, gabion protection works, road crossings,
bridges, anti-flood sluice gates etc., with associated digital photographs with GPS
information for each. Pertinent information such as location, design drawings of
these structures as available from the different agencies, measurements of visible
dimensions, current status (working, damaged, choked, repairable or not) should be
recorded. All information, spatial in nature, should be located on map with
appropriate symbols/ notations in ArcGIS format. Any other relevant features,
natural or man-made, found in the survey area shall be surveyed and documented.
Water Level of the river during survey period with time and date must be recorded
The cross-section of river at Gauge locations and structure shall be recorded at 1km
U/S and 1 km D/S of the Gauge site and structure in addition to the x-section at
Gauge site/ structure site.This will make 3 Nos X-section for each cross-section foe
each gauge site/structure site.The confluence point of all the river must be recorded.
The cross-section at U/S of tributaries and main river and D/S of confluence point
must be recorded.
Ground survey of floodplains within embankment and out side of the embankment on
both side @ 100m or closer grid (spot levels) in consultation with Engineer incharge
would be conducted to develop appropriate DEM to develop inundation modeling
aiming 05 cm accuracy.
Outputs: Three hard copies and two soft copies (in Ms-word/ Excel/ ArcGIS format) of detailed
report containing following contents shall be submitted:
1. Detailed Methodology with detailed technical description and accuracy of instrument
used, site selection of all controls point with justification,Photograpgs and brief notes on
control points in UTM, WGS 84 projection system. The desired output of the survey
18
would cover all technical guidelines issued by the Ministry of Environmental and forests
, Govt. of India
2.Drawings prepared in ArcGIS showing River Plan, Cross-section, Gauge location, all
structures, reference point, Road/rail bridges, H.T. line etc with related parameter
available at site and other salient features as directed by the Engineer in Charge along the
River.This drawings would also cover list of the Stream etc with the chainage and bank.
3. Detail Plan of each river cross-section showing starting and end point co-ordinate of
cross-section in projection system being used at FMISC with graph of all cross-section
and its value in Excel/DXF,DXG or DGN format.
4. Digital Topographic Data Requirements should be as:
Surface Description- Bare-earth surface
Vertical Accuracy;
Absolute Vertical Accuracyz - <5 cm
Relative Vertical Accuracyz - <5 cm
Vertical accuracy at the 95% confidence level(Accuracyz) =RMSEz *1.9600 with normal
distribution,
Horizontal Accuracy;
Absolute Horizontal Accuracyr - <10 cm
Relative Horizontal Accuracyr - <10 cm
Horizontal accuracy at the 95% confidence level(Accuracyr) =RMSEr *1.7308
Data Model;
1. Contour
2. DEM (post spacing = 1 meter)
Horizontal Datum - WGS 84
Coordinate System - UTM
Units Note: Vertical (V) units may differ from Horizontal (H) units
Meters to 2 decimal places
Data Format;
Digital contour lines and break lines- Mass points and TINS - DEMs
.DGN ASCII x/y/z GeoTiff
.E00 TIN Arc/Info Export File
.SHP
19
File size or Tile size
File size - MB
Tile size - *
Task 3. Flood Forecasting Model
Accurate and reliable flow/flood forecasting forms an important basis for efficient real-time
river management and disaster response. The consultancy would select/develop an appropriate suite
of models to generate improved flood forecasts with increased lead-time in the Kosi river basin
using currently available hydrologic data. The flood forecast model selected should have direct
linkages to the hydrological and spatial databases, allowing the automated import and pre-processing
of current data. Additional thematic basin maps, not available with FMISC,WRD as required by the
selected model would need to be generated by the consultant. The consultant would establish the
validity of data prior to using in model development. Scenario analysis should also be possible.
The open front-end data interface would allow the system to be coupled to virtually any
hydrological or hydraulic model in order to obtain predictions of water levels and flows in the model
domain. The model/suite of models should be capable of simulating a wide range of discharge
hydrographs and long stream reaches. The model should take into consideration the catchments
characteristics, flooding and drainage scenario, embankment conditions and topography of the area.
The consultant has to develop model to forecast water level and discharge at any location of the Kosi
River from Brah-shetra to confluence with Ganga River and in tributaries from start to outfall with
Kosi River river but Specific forecast locations may be determined in conjunction with the
FMISC,WRD team if required. Preference may be given to free and public access software/ models
that do not require special licenses and/ or have user restrictions (e.g. dongles).This shall have to be
decided based on justification amongst equally suitable models. Cost-free model will be preferred. If
the Consultant prefers licensed version of software it will ensure to deliver at least 5 License with
free dongles.
The model has to be developed, calibrated and validated using the historical and current data and
will be run on forecasted short and long-term weather inputs calibrated with real-time data obtained
from existing and upcoming data from the Monitoring Network. The flood modeling study shall
evaluate and appropriately use currently available forecasts of India Meteorological Department
(IMD) for the basin of up to 3 days (or longer if feasible). Use of rainfall forecasts from various
global sources (e.g. NOAA, European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) would need to
be also considered. The detailed tasks will include:
20
a) Evaluate and incorporate rainfall estimates/forecasts and climate forecasts from national
and/or from global sources in the flood forecasting methodology, and assess improved
performance.
b) Develop the most appropriate calibrated and validated model/package of flood forecasting
models based on observed and forecasted short and long-term meteorological and hydrologic
variables.
c) Review and identify possible approaches to test different flood inundation scenarios. For
instance, the model suite could examine the impacts of embankment (levee) breach generated
inundation at vulnerable locations along the embankment or generate inundation scenarios
for different flood magnitudes. Advantages /disadvantages and strengths/weaknesses for each
scenario development options should be elaborated.
d) Develop necessary plan (including designs & drawings) for additionally needed measuring
equipment/structures (gauges, discharge and sediment) on telemetry based system etc,
SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) compatible with the proposed flood
forecasting, early warning and inundation modeling system and also develop technical
specification with its estimates and bid documents of agreed option for procurement.
The selected approach would be finalized after discussion with the Standing Review committee
constituted by WRD.
Improved flood forecast procedures may have to incorporate outputs from a range of other models
including reliable medium range rainfall forecasting in the catchments; rainfall-runoff modeling in
the upstream Nepal catchments to convert rainfall forecast into runoff forecast; hydraulic routing to
downstream catchments areas. Routing models would require the hydraulic data of river cross-
section and of the flood plain. These will be clarified during the initial inception phases of this
consultancy.
The models should cover both flash floods due to steep slope of river from Chatra to Barrage in the
upstream portions as well as longer duration floods and persisting water-logging in the lower
portions. The approach needs to take note of possible modeling constraints such as aggrading rivers,
rapidly shifting river course and changing cross-section, and breaches/controlled sluice openings
during flood situations. Other constraints may be data availability in Nepal portion of river basin,
particularly real-time high-frequency rainfall measurements. The consultant will have to explore and
acquire real time data to develop better flood forecast model which are not available at FMISC,WRD
from different networks especially for upper catchment which lies in Nepal and as well as in Bihar
portion, if required. The quality of historic data (changing datum, observational errors, and poorly-
21
maintained measuring equipment) would need to be evaluated before use in model development. Use
of climate forecasts will be required. These may come from public domain sources such as the
USGS daily rainfall, National weather service of NOAA and the 3 day forecast from IMD. This
will be completed during the initial inception phase. Model limitations for predicting extreme flood
events would need to be considered.
Outputs:
1. Calibrated and validated model for flood forecasting in the Kosi river from Barah-shetra
to Kursela, confluence with Ganga river in Kosi Basin with longer lead time.
2. Consultant will have to give a plan for additionally needed equipment/structures (Gauges,
discharge and sediment on telemetry based system etc.), SCADA compatible with the
proposed flood forecasting, early warning and inundation modelling system and also
develop the technical specifications with detail costing and bid documents of agreed
option .
3. Customized front-end data module to extract and interface user-selectable model
parameters such as rainfall measurements, estimates and forecasts from global and
national sources, and thematic data from the spatial data system, and other parameters
4. Appropriate flow/ flood warning reporting formats
Task 4. Flood Early Warning System
The Early Warning System (EWS) for floods in Kosi river Basin developed from the integrated
flood forecasting system, during the flood season will help mitigate the flood related hazards by
disseminating warning to the users/target communities, a range of government and non-government
organizations, media groups and other interested parties. It would thus form a very important and
relatively inexpensive nonstructural flood control measure. The consultancy would develop an Flood
warning system with the Flood forecast model for the Kosi river basin as an integrated real time
warning system. Currently the state of Bihar does not have a comprehensive flood early warning
system. The aim is to utilize this consultancy to develop a warning system based on the flood
forecast with increased lead time. Thus the consultant would develop a warning system along with
the forecasting. This system will at a later stage would continue to improve with the improvement of
the flood forecast model. These would subsequently be processed into web-enabled formats as well.
These will also be dynamically linked for real time data exchange with the flood forecast model
(Task-3), Embankment Asset Management System (EAMS) and Hydrological Information System
22
(HIS) being developed by FMISC,WRD, Patna under other consultancies. Specific sub-tasks
include:
a) Develop a flood warning system based on the Flood forecast model for the Kosi basin as an
integrated system with a real time warning system. This system will at a later stage be improved with
the improvement of the flood forecast model
b) Suggest modalities for effective coordination amongst government agencies responsible for
collecting, interpreting, and disseminating warning information to the public;
c) Direct community participation in deploying early warning systems; and
d) Systems that will be able to adjust to varying degrees of intensity of future events.
Outputs;
1. Develop a Flood warning system based on the Flood forecast model for the Kosi basin as
an integrated system with a real time warning system.
2. Develop modalities for effective coordination amongst Government agencies such as
WRD, IMD, CWC, DMD etc. responsible for collecting, interpreting, and disseminating
warning information to the public;
3. Develop mechanism for direct community participation in disseminating and deploying
Early warning system; and
4. Develop a system which will be able to adjust to varying degrees of intensity of future
Events.
5. Prepare manuals and guidelines for flood warning systems.
Task 5. Flood Inundation Modeling
The results of the flood forecasting model should be then processed automatically in a GIS-based
environment into maps of flood inundation extent, depth, arrival time, and duration, with other
relevant themes in the background. These inundation maps would subsequently be processed into
web-enabled formats. The inundation mapping tool will be dynamically linked for real-time data
exchange with the flood forecast model (Task 3), Embankment Asset Management System (EAMS)
and Hydrological Information System (HIS) being developed by FMIS separately for Kosi river
basin.
The inundation mapping tool would update the input data file continuously so that current values are
used in the model. In times of embankment breach or for breach analysis, for example, the mapping
23
tool should be able to predict the inundation based on the topography. Various baseline data sets
will be required for this task (e.g. DEM, embankment location). Specific sub-tasks include:
a) Develop appropriate inundation models to predict inundation extent, depth, arrival time and
duration in any location in the North Bihar in Kosi basin;
b) Develop customized application software with Graphical User Interface (GUI) for the flood
model package, with interface to FMISC information systems (HIS, EAMS, Spatial data
system, etc) for dynamic updating;
c) Calibrate and validate the flood forecast model and inundation mapping using historic data,
and possibly during a flood season prior to project closure.
d) Develop a module to generate community targeted inundation forecasts and/or alert messages
(via SMS) and web-posting to display predicted maps based on user-selected geographical
area and time period.
The methodology development would be based on the local inundation mechanism, and existing data
availability that are likely to be available during the project period. The mapping tool would need to
take note of the multiple causes of flooding in any location. Inundation could be from embankment
breaches and cuts along the jacketed portions of the rivers, over-bank flow in the un-
jacketed/jacketed portions, tributary flooding backing up behind the embankments, local heavy
rainfall and impeded drainage in other areas. The user should have the ability to test these various
scenarios. Moreover, the output from the improved flood forecast model along with topographic
information will lead to inundation mapping along the main-stream of the Kosi River. Inundation in
other areas, where gauged river data is not available, may be based on other approaches relating
upstream rainfall to observed inundation.
Outputs:
1. Calibrated and validated flood inundation model predicting inundation extent, depth,
arrival time and duration at any locations in Kosi basin ;
2. Customized application software for extracting and inputting data, and to interface the
inundation forecasting model with other FMISC systems. Both the flood inundation
model and the inundation forecast model should have the facility to dynamically update
the input data file.
3. Web-ready model results with links to the FMISC,WRD website and interfaced for real-
time data exchange with other FMIS information systems such as the Spatial database,
Hydrological Information System (HIS), and Embankment Asset Management System;
24
4. System enabled to convert the outputs to SMS alerts to designated recipients;
Task 6. Capacity-building and Training
A key objective of this consultancy is to ensure that the systems developed in Task 2, 3, 4 and 5 are
used in practice and address the critical needs and requirements of the various operators and
stakeholders in the WRD. This will require substantive training from the Consultants. This may
include:
a) Calibration, fine tuning and the overall performance of the systems developed will be
implemented through active interactions and discussions with FMISC,WRD and concerned
GoB Departments dealing with flood management. The consultant would be required to
submit interim reports justifying the calibration parameters used in both the models. In
addition, various scenarios will be tested and presented in an interim report to optimize flood
management and improve the performance of the system. Finally a workshop will be
arranged to share the final products with all the stakeholders.
b) Development of technical, operational, user manuals, online help, workbooks/tutorials,
training presentations and other training material. Provide 5 copies of user manuals
(software design, operation and troubleshooting tips) in hard copy and electronic form.
c) On the job training: A minimum of 6 engineers with appropriate hydrology and water
resources background will be nominated early on in the project to work with the consultancy
team throughout the development of the modeling system and to receive on-the job training.
d) The consultant will develop a training plan for improving the modeling skills in
FMISC,WRD on various aspects of hydrologic forecasting including precipitation analysis,
hydrologic model theory and operation, use of GIS & geospatial data sets and tools,
sediment transport, hydraulics, meteorology [especially Qualitative Parcipitation Forecast
(QPF)], probabilistic forecasting, remote sensing, pc computer operations & some IT,
statistics, communications, communicating information to users, end to end hydrologic
forecasting, and implementing the concept of operations.
e) At least three workshops shall have to be organized to disseminate the information with various
technical teams and stakeholder that shall be arranged by client and will be facilitated by resource
experts from consultant.
Outputs:
1. Manuals, training plan and materials;
25
2. Training of Engineers in model understanding, operation including selection and
packaging input data, continuing model validation, and maintaining model and linkages
with other information systems and databases. Training will be for a team of minimum of
6 Engineers at a time.
3. The consultant will be responsible to provide help/ support on any query from the FMIS
for Topographic and Cross-section survey and flood forecasting & warning and
inundation model after implementation during the project period and ten months beyond
Final report and models and tools after acceptance by FMISC, WRD.
4. SCHEDULE FOR COMPLETION OF TASKS
The activities described earlier and the outputs described below shall be completed within a
period of Twenty four months. An interim prototype of flood forecast model & early
warning and Inundation modeling system would have to be delivered within Ten months
after the start of study for possible operational use in the flood season prior to agreement
closure conducive for improvement in the subsequent period. The Consultant Team would
work closely with the FMIS Centre of Water Resources Department for designing and
developing the model. Validation and demonstrative runs will be conducted prior to its
transfer to FMISC,WRD. The consultancy report would describe the data, software, and
methodology used to generate and web-enable the maps in real time. The model calibration
and validation will be documented and sustainability would be ensured through training of
engineers, to be notified by the Department including the operation manual, trouble-shooting
manual etc.
Intermediate Status Report:
Intermediate Montly Progress Reports indicating the status of the assignment shall be
submitted by the consultant. The activities and findings mentioned in these reports shall be
incorporated in the next key reporting requirements.
Key reporting requirements follow:
Reports Covering Time /Month
Inception Report for Flood
Forecasting & Early Warning
and Inundation Modeling
System including
Topographic and Cross-
Topographic and Cross-section
Survey
1. Detailed methodology to be
used in conducting the survey
including technical
specification of instruments to
Before end of month 3
26
section Survey be used, Detailed work output
and critical manpower
deployment schedule, Key
plan of the area
Proforma for data collection
Flood Forecasting & Early
Warning and Inundation
Modeling
Analysis of data availability
and data quality,
Identification of various Govt.
agencies and project
clearances
Review of International
experience,
Identification of possible
models suitable to Kosi river
basin, Conceptual design of
flood monitoring system,
Methodology for the
development of model,
Identification of data inputs
for the model, Outputs
expected, Methodology for the
calibration and validation of
model, and Fortnightly
schedule of implementation
work plan.
The inception Report will
cover objectives confirming to
Task-1.
27
Mid Term Report-1 for
Topographic and Cross-
section Survey and
Design report for Flood
Forecasting & Early Warning
and Inundation Modeling
system
Topographic and Cross-section
Survey Describing the progress made
with the services and the
results achieved up to that
point with the specific
activities to be carried out
under the services and
objectives confirming to Task-
2 Flood Forecasting & Early
Warning and Inundation
Modeling 1.Detailed design of flood
modeling & early warning
and Inundation Modeling
system including inputs and
outputs, Internal and external
interfaces, Data flow
schedules for dynamic
updating of model, and Input-
output data formats objective
confirming to Task-3,4 &5.
2.Design and Plan for
additionally needed measuring
equipment/structures (gauges,
discharge and sediment),
Supervisory Control and Data
Acquisition (SCADA) and
telemetry options with their
technical specifications with
detail cost estimate and bid
documents of agreed option
for procurement objectives
confirming to Task-3.
By month 8
28
Mid Term Report-2 for
Topographic and Cross-
section Survey and
Initial Forecast model &
early warning system and
inundation mapping tool
Topographic and Cross-section
Survey Describing the progress made
with the services and the
results achieved up to that
point with the specific
activities to be carried out
under the services and
objectives confirming to Task-
2
Flood Forecasting & Early
Warning and Inundation
Modeling
Initial Forecast model & early
warning system and
inundation mapping tool
objective confirming to Task-
3,4 &5. .
By month 10
Training Plan
Forecast model & early
warning system and
inundation mapping tool
Objective confirming to Task-
6. By month11
Draft final report, including
all Topographic and Cross-
section Survey output ,
models and tools and user and
operation manuals, reporting
protocols and formats and
Acceptance Testing
Objective confirming to all
Task described in the ToR.
By month 12
Final report including all
Topographic and Cross-
section Survey output and
models and tools after
acceptance by FMISC, WRD.
Objective confirming to all
Task described in the ToR.
By month 14
Help/ Support on any query By month 24
29
The reports will be reviewed by a Standing Review Committee set up by WRD. The committee
would review and respond on the deliverable/ report within one month after submission of report by
the Consultant.
5. DATA, SERVICES AND FACILITIES TO BE PROVIDED BY THE CLIENT
The following amenities will be provided by the Client:
Office space for two staff of the consultant to work at the FMISC will be provided by the
client. The client will provide to the consultant- access to confidential data (topo sheets,
LiDAR data if available, CWC stage/discharge data, etc) in secure data handling
environment, available historic and current data on hydrometeorology, hydrology and
hydraulics; available thematic data; rainfall and flood forecast from IMD/CWC;
topographic data; embankment breach details.
Liaison officer, Water Resources Department at Kathmandu, Nepal will facilitate in
acquiring needed data from Government of Nepal.
The client already has a server (Intel Xeon 6 Core Processor -2 no, 16 GB RAM 1 TB on
server storage Windows 2008 Server). The software specification and the adequacy of
the hardware resources will have to be provided by the Consultant.
The client also has hardware infrastructure as-
The infrastructure in brief are-Two IBM * 3500 severs with 2 (6 Core Xeon processor)
16GB RAM ITB onboard storage, 1nos storage of 2TB upgradable up to 24TB (RAID
5) compliant24TB (RA105) compliant
No of concurrent user <= 100
Access to other national and central agencies for data collection
Access to other consultants working on hydrologic network, EAMS, surveys, and spatial
datasets
Access to information systems and databases available or to be developed.
Facilitate implementing improved flood forecast & early warning system and inundation
model in FMIS, WRD.
from the WRD/FMISC for
Topographic Survey & Cross-
section data and flood
forecasting & early warning
and inundation model after
implementation and
acceptance of Final report.
30
6. RESPONSIBILITIES OF THE CONSULTANT
Conduct and complete the consultancy as per the agreed TOR and scope of the
consultancy. The application shall be developed at the Client’s premises as long as the
database and other requirements are properly taken care of. The test cases must be
properly developed after study of nature of data and all exception that may occur must be
taken care of.Collect data as needed for modeling from concerned agencies. The
consultants will have to acquire real time data which is not available with FMISC,WRD
from different networks both in Nepal and Bihar if required for the Modeling work.
Conduct field visits as required for data collection or to verify model results
Undertake data conversion of source data as needed for modeling
The Project team leader would essentially be a Flood forecast/Inundation and early
warning system modeler.
One of the Key staff like Flood Forecast modeler and early warning/ Inundation Modeler
/Survey Expert will be at FMISC, WRD, Patna for at least 75 percent of the period up to
the approval of final report and models and tools by FMISC, WRD and work closely with
the working Modeling group formed by the department. At least one of the modelers
would assure his presence during the above mentioned period at Patna.
7. HANDLING RESTRICTED DATA
The Consultants, their sub-consultants, and the personnel of either of them shall not, either during
the term or even after the expiration of this contract, disclose any proprietary or confidential
information related to the Project, the services, this contact, or the Client’s business or operations
without the prior written consent of the Client. Certain data (such as topographic maps in 1:50,000
scale with heights and contour information, river discharge data for Ganga river system and DEM
with 50 cm contour interval) which may be used in development and operation of flood models may
be considered ‘restricted’ as per Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Water Resources guidelines.
Keeping in view security guidelines for data secrecy and to provide optimum functionality and to
enable sharing data with the consultants, a secure data handling environment has been proposed.
FMISC,WRD will maintain all classified/ secret data in this Secure Data Centre (SDC). The unit will
be equipped with necessary hardware and software and peripheral units, but will not be connected
with outside LAN network. CD/DVD Writer & Floppy/ Pen Drive facilities will only be available on
the main server in SDC. Entry to the confidential unit shall be appropriately screened for
authorization. Proper record of date and time of entry and exit in the confidential unit along with the
details of work done shall be recorded in logbooks. Inventory of all data in SDC shall be maintained
31
and updated. Entry to SDC will be strictly prohibited before and after office hours. For emergent
circumstances approval of competant authority will be required. Permanent passes for the consultant
staff deputed for working in SDC shall be issued by the Joint Director, FMISC,WRD.
Confidentiality and non-disclosure Agreements are to be signed by the Consultant firm, as well as
the individual Consultants deputed for working in SDC. Technical data brought by the Consultant
may be allowed to be loaded on the server after approval of the Joint Director, FMISC,WRD. A
detailed record of all the data transferred from confidential unit will be maintained in a register and
data will be transferred only after approval. No original data kept on server will be modified or
changed. Change/ modification required if any will be done only after copying the data.
8. LIST OF KEY POSITIONS
The key staffs to be provided by the consultant are shown below. However, the consultants are free
to propose their own team composition suitable for the project duration of the consultancy for
development and Model and Conducting Topographic and Cross-section Survey. The team leader
has essentially to be a Flood forecast &early warning system/ Inundation modeler.
Discipline of the Consultant Qualifications and Experience Suggested Man-Months
(A) Topographic and Cross-
section Survey
1. Co-Team Leader/ Survey
Expert
2. Surveyors
(B) Flood Forecasting & Early
Warning and Inundation
Bachelor’s Degree in Civil
Engineering, Computer proficiency
having knowledge of Auto CAD.
He/She should have at least 5 years
experience in terrain survey data
collection using modern surveying
techniques and tools with
experience in the use of GIS
technology
-Certificate course in field
surveying from reconised ITI.
- At least 3 years experience in
precision survey in flat terrain using
Modern Electronic survey
equipments like DGPS and Total
station/Auto Level
1. Relevant advanced academic
degree in Hydrology, Hydraulic and
14
Sufficient numbers to carry
out work within the
stipulated time.
32
Modeling
1.Project Team Leader / Flood
forecast and early warning
system/Inundation modeler
/ or Water Resources engineering.
2. At least 10 years working
experience in flood modeling and
early warning system / GIS use for
modeling.
3. Extensive knowledge of
hydrological and hydrodynamic
modeling tools used in flood
forecasting; should have a very
good experience with rainfall- run-
off modeling.
4. Proven experience in setting up
models for flood forecasting in large
river basin.
5. Modeling experience in Indian
river basins.
6. Experience in integrating flood
forecast with early warning system/
inundation models with others
information system/ databases.
18
Hydrologist 1. Relevant advanced academic
degree in Hydrology, Hydraulic and
/ or Water Resources engineering.
2. At least 5 years working
experience in flood modeling and
early warning system / GIS use for
modeling.
3. Extensive knowledge of
hydrological and hydrodynamic
modeling tools used in flood
forecasting; should have a very
good experience with rainfall- run-
off modeling.
4. Modeling experience in Indian
river basins.
5. Desirable: experience in
application Software Development /
design in Water resources sector.
11
33
GIS/RS Specialist 1. Preferably be M.Sc.
Geography/GeoScience with
specialization in GIS/RS for GIS/RS
Specialist.
2. 5 years experience in RS/GIS
applications for resource mapping,
preparation and integration of GIS
datasets, experience in integrating
global satellite derived data;
experience in hydrologic
application, 3D analysis and
customization and experience in
flood inundation mapping for
GIS/RS specialist
8
Database Specialist 1. Graduate in Engineering in
Computer Science/IT Database for
Data base Specialist
2. 2 years experience in data base
applications for Database specialist ;
7
SCADA Specialist 1. Prefebly be Master degree in
Electronic & Communication
Engineering/ Computer Science
with Communication
Engineering.
2. At least 5 years Working
Experience in designing, developing
and Installation of Supervisory
Acquisition System for Flood
forecast, early warning and
Inundation Modelling.
10
Support Staff -
34
9. PAYMENT SCHEDULE
10 percent on signing of contract as advance against a bank guarantee.
5 percent after submitting and acceptance of Inception report,
15 percent after submission and approval of Mid Term Report-1 and Design report,
25 percent after approval of Mid Term Report-2 and Initial Models and mapping tool,
20 percent after submission and approval of Draft Final Report and training plan,
15 percent after submission and approval of Final Report.
10 percent after 10 months of the acceptance of Final report, model and tools after
fulfillment on all queries from the FMISC/ WRD for Topographic and Cross-section survey
and flood forecasting & warning and inundation model during this period.
10. Duration of Consultancy 24 months
35
Annexure-I
36
Annexure – II
Status of Data available for modeling
Meteorological Data: India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Directorate of Statistical
Organization (DSO) of GoB maintain and operate rainfall stations. IMD reports daily rainfall every day,
while the GoB stations report daily rainfall with a delay. Due to FMIS intervention some GoB stations
have started reporting daily rainfall every day, since 2007. The GoB data quality is suspect and would
need to be validated prior to use. Hourly rainfall data is available only at IMD sites at Basua, Baltara and
Kursela but is not accessible in real-time.
The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology in Nepal provides daily rainfall data at four stations in
the upstream basin in Nepal, posted on its website. Daily rainfall data for Okhaldhunga, Taplejung,
Dhankutta, and Dharan stations in Nepal for Kosi basins are available from year 2007 at FMISC,WRD.
Daily rainfall data for 95 stations including those of Kosi basin are available with Department of
Hydrology and Meteorology, Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology, Government of Nepal
from year 1996 to 2006 (11 years). These will be procured by FMISC,WRD.
Hydrometry data: Both the Central Water Commission (CWC) and WRD operate stream gauge sites,
with WRD operating sites only during the flood season. There are 3 gauge Baltara, Basua and Kursela
and 2 discharge sites Barah-k-shatra and D/S of Barrage in the Kosi Basin system at which historical
stage and daily discharge data would be available from CWC & GoB.
The CWC is in the process of modernization of its flood forecasting network in the country. The
modernization envisages satellite based transmission system from automatic rain gauge and bubbler type
water level sensors. In the first phase, two forecasting base stations Birpur and Basua in India portion
are proposed to be updated in the Kosi basin. The commission also plans to integrate the data collection
and transmission system with that of the state governments/Project authorities and newly established
National Disaster Management Authority.
FMISC,WRD is planning to set up a real-time telemetry network of rain gauges, stream gauges and
sediment gauge sunder the Bihar Kosi Recovery Project separately. This will be supported by
appropriate mobile equipment to update the rating curves. A Hydrological Information System (HIS) is
37
also planned to acquire, validate, archive and share all historic data and current real-time and delayed-
receipt data in the basin.
Rainfall Forecast and Estimates
IMD is currently providing 3 day forecasts at daily and six hourly intervals and at 9 km resolution,
updated daily, covering north Bihar and Nepal. Qualitative precipitation forecasts for next two days from
DHM are available over Nepal. Global forecasts and rainfall estimates from NOAA’s National Weather
Service and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Tropical Rainfall
Measurement Mission (TRMM) based hourly estimates could also be used. Longer-term climate
forecasts would also need to be evaluated for possible use in the model.
River Cross-sectional Survey
The cross-section data available presently at FMISC,WRD is 32 km U/S of Barrage and 125 km D/S of
Barrage.
Thematic data on basin characteristics
LISS 3 images of past seven years are also available with FMISC,WRD, for monitoring trends.
FMISC,WRD also has Cartosat satellite data (2.5 m resolution) covering the Bihar region of basin.
Global GIS data from Hydro GIS at 1 km resolution would also be useful for modeling runoff from the
Nepal portion of the basin.
Table 1 Discharge Sites currently maintained by WRD, GoB
S.No. Site River
1 Barah-kshetra Kosi
2 D/S,Birpur Barrage Kosi
Table 2 Rain Gauge Station and Gauge Sites currently maintained by CWC
S.No. Station name District River
1 Basua Supaul Kosi
2 Baltara Khagaria Kosi
3 Kursela Katihar Kosi
38
Table 3 Rain Gauge Station in Nepal Portion maintained
(By Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, GON)
S.No. River Rainfall gauge Site
1
Kosi
Okhaldunga
2 Taplejung
3 Dhankutta
4 Dharan
Table-4 DSO Rain Gauge In India
S.No.
Station Name Latitude Longitude
Country/
source
1 Andhratharhi 26.35 86.33 India/DSO
2 Basopatti 26.54 86.02 India/DSO
3 Beldaur 25.59 86.79 India/DSO
4 Benipatti 26.41 85.94 India/DSO
5 Benipur 26.11 86.00 India/DSO
6 Biraul 25.95 86.25 India/DSO
7 Bisfi 26.30 85.90 India/DSO
8 Chautham 25.53 86.65 India/DSO
9 Ghanshyampur 25.98 86.26 India/DSO
10 Ghoghardiha 26.28 86.47 India/DSO
11 Gogri 25.42 86.63 India/DSO
12 Keotiranway 26.25 85.91 India/DSO
13 Khajauli 26.48 86.16 India/DSO
14 Khutauna 26.39 86.40 India/DSO
15 Kusheshwar Asthan 25.82 86.31 India/DSO
16 Ladania 26.58 86.35 India/DSO
17 Madhopur 26.19 86.35 India/DSO
18 Mahishi 25.85 86.47 India/DSO
19 Manigachhi 26.21 86.17 India/DSO
20 Nauhatta 26.00 86.49 India/DSO
39
21 Nirmali 26.31 86.57 India/DSO
22 Pandaul 26.21 86.10 India/DSO
23 Phulparas 26.37 86.49 India/DSO
24 Pipra 26.16 86.80 India/DSO
25 Rajnagar 26.39 86.16 India/DSO
26 Salkhua 25.66 86.60 India/DSO
27 Saur Bazar 25.81 86.67 India/DSO
28 Simri Bakhtiarpur 25.72 86.59 India/DSO
29 Tribeniganj 26.13 86.89 India/DSO
Table-5 Network of Rain Gauge station In Nepal portion
S.No. Station Name Latitude Longitude Country/
source
1 Aisealukh 27.35 86.75 Nepal
2 Bahimlilp 27.18 86.17 Nepal
3 Bahrbise 27.78 85.9 Nepal
4 Barmajhiy 26.6 86.9 Nepal
5 Baunepati 27.78 85.57 Nepal
6 Bhimnagar 26.42 86.92 India/
Nepal Rep
7 Bhojpur 27.18 87.05 Nepal
8 Chainpur 27.28 87.33 Nepal
9 Chantara 27.78 85.72 Nepal
10 Charikt 27.67 86.05 Nepal
11 Chatara 26.82 87.17 Nepal
12 Chawrikha 27.7 86.72 Nepal
13 Chepurwa 27.77 87.42 Nepal
14 Chialsa 27.48 86.62 Nepal
15 Dalaghat 27.63 85.72 Nepal
16 Devan 27.35 87.6 Nepal
40
17 Dhap 27.92 85.63 Nepal
18 Dharanbaj 26.82 87.28 Nepal
19 Diktol 27.22 86.8 Nepal
20 Dubaehaur 27.85 85.57 Nepal
21 Duigla 27.37 87.15 Nepal
22 Dulikhel 27.62 85.55 Nepal
23 Gumthang 27.87 85.87 Nepal
24 Jiri 27.63 86.23 Nepal
25 Khopari 27.58 85.52 Nepal
26 Khotang 27.03 86.83 Nepal
27 Kurule Gh 27.13 86.42 Nepal
28 Laguwagha 27.13 87.28 Nepal
29 Lahan 26.73 86.43 Nepal
30 Lakhnaur 26.22 86.33 Nepal
31 Lungthung 27.55 87.78 Nepal
32 Machuwagh 26.97 87.17 Nepal
33 Majhitar 27.16 87.71 Nepal
34 Mandan 27.7 85.65 Nepal
35 Manebhanj 27.48 86.42 Nepal
36 Manthali 27.47 86.08 Nepal
37 Melurg 27.52 86.05 Nepal
38 Memengjeg 27.2 87.93 Nepal
39 Mulghat 26.93 87.33 Nepal
40 Munga 27.03 87.23 Nepal
41 Nagarkot 27.7 85.52 Nepal
42 Nagdaha 27.68 86.1 Nepal
43 Napalthok 27.45 85.82 Nepal
44 Nawalpur 27.8 85.62 Nepal
45 Num 27.55 87.28 Nepal
46 Pachuwarghat 27.58 85.75 Nepal
47 Paharmas 27.43 86.57 Nepal
48 Pakhribas 27.05 87.28 Nepal
41
49 Panchkhal 27.68 85.63 Nepal
50 Pariaha-Bandipur 26.88 86.14 Nepal
51 Phidim 27.15 87.75 Nepal
52 Rajbiraj 26.55 86.75 Nepal
53 Ralmwa Bagar 27.27 86.66 Nepal
54 Salleri 27.5 86.58 Nepal
55 Sangaehok 27.7 85.72 Nepal
56 Sarmathan 27.95 85.6 Nepal
57 Siraha 26.65 86.22 Nepal
58 Sirwa 27.55 86.38 Nepal
59 Suidhuli 27.23 85.9 Nepal
60 Taplethok 27.48 87.78 Nepal
61 Tarkeghya 28.00 85.55 Nepal
62 Thokarpa 27.70 85.78 Nepal
63 Tribeni 26.93 87.15 Nepal
64 Tumlingta 27.78 87.22 Nepal
65 Turheghat 27.33 87.19 Nepal
66 Udayapurg 26.93 86.52 Nepal