Toplines: IWV/WPA LA Senate Study

© 2014 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

WILSON PERKINS ALLEN OPINION RESEARCH 324 Second Street, SE Washington, DC 20003 405.286.6500 www.wparesearch.com

WPA ID: 14-421

IWF_LA SENATE BRUSHFIRE STUDY_MQ_141125.DOCX U.S. SENATE LIKELY RUNOFF VOTERS NOVEMBER 24-25, 2014

SAMPLE: n=502 Likely Runoff Voters MoE=±4.4% NO CODE/ASK ALL QUESTIONS

INTRODUCTION: Good evening. May I please speak with NAME FROM FILE? My name is ____________ and I'm calling from WPA Research, a national public opinion firm. This evening we're conducting a short scientific survey in Louisiana and we'd like to get your opinions. We’re not selling anything and your responses will be completely confidential.

1. First, are you or any member of your immediate family a member of the news media, a Public Relations company, or an active participant with any political campaign?

1. Yes ........................................................................................................ TERMINATE 2. No/All other .....................................................................................................100% 2. As you may know, after no candidate received fifty percent of the vote in the primary election there will be a

runoff election for U.S. Senate on December 6th. Early voting has started for that December 6th runoff election. If you have already voted in the December runoff election please let me know. If you have yet to vote in the December runoff election please rate your likelihood to vote in the runoff election for U.S. Senate and various state and local offices on a scale from zero to nine. Zero means you definitely won't vote in this runoff election, five means you might or might not vote in the runoff election and nine means you will definitely vote in the runoff election..

0. Zero ...................................................................................................... TERMINATE 1. One ...................................................................................................... TERMINATE 2. Two ...................................................................................................... TERMINATE 3. Three.................................................................................................... TERMINATE 4. Four...................................................................................................... TERMINATE 5. Five ..................................................................................................................... 2% 6. Six ....................................................................................................................... 0% 7. Seven .................................................................................................................. 1% 8. Eight .................................................................................................................... 2% 9. Nine .................................................................................................................. 85% 10. DK/Refused ........................................................................................ TERMINATE 11. Already Voted ................................................................................................... 10%

IWF/Likely Runoff Voters/1835/8410 of 9

© 2014 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research Confidential – do not copy or distribute without permission

Now I am going to read you a list of names of people active in politics. After I read each one, please tell me if you

have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person. If I read you one you have never heard of, just tell me

and we’ll move on to the next person.

IF FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE, ASK: And, would you say you have a VERY (favorable/unfavorable) impression of that person, or just SOMEWHAT? The (first/next) one is…RANDOMIZE

Total

Fav

Very

Fav

1.

Somewhat

Fav

2.

No

Opinion

DNR

3.

Never

heard of

4.

Somewhat

Unfav

5.

Very

Unfav

6.

Total

Unfav

3. Bill Cassidy 56% 35% 21% 8% 2% 9% 25% 34%

4. Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew) 36% 26% 10% 5% 2% 10% 47% 57%

Now thinking about those people again, I am going to read a list of names and for each one please tell me if you think of that person as ROTATE TOP-TO-BOTTOM, BOTTOM-TO-TOP a conservative, a moderate, or a liberal in their political beliefs. IF CONSERVATIVE/LIBERAL ASK: And would you say (choice) is VERY (conservative/liberal) or just SOMEWHAT (conservative/liberal)? The (first/next) one is…RANDOMIZE

Total

Conservative

Very

Conservative

1.

Somewhat

Conservative

2.

Moderate

3.

DK/Ref

DNR

4.

Somewhat

Liberal

5.

Very

Liberal

6.

Total

Liberal

IF Q3: 1-3 OR 5-6 ASK Q5: n=490 5. Bill Cassidy

61% 35% 26% 16% 14% 5% 5% 10%

IF Q4: 1-3 OR 5-6 ASK Q6: n=493 6. Mary Landrieu

(Lan-drew)

10% 6% 4% 16% 10% 16% 48% 64%



As you may know, after no candidate received fifty percent of the vote in the primary election there will be a run-off

election on December 6th….

7. IF Q2=5-9 ASK If the runoff election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote … RANDOMIZE IF Q2=11 ASK: In the runoff election for U.S. Senate, for whom did you vote…

DO NOT ASK PROBES – CODE AS DEFINITELY (CHOICE)

IF Q2=11 AND REFUSED, ASK I know your ballot is secret, but your responses are very important to this study which will help us understand how people make decisions in elections. Your responses are completely confidential. Will you please reconsider telling me for whom you voted? REPEAT CANDIDATES

Bill Cassidy, the Republican …or… Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew), the Democrat

IF CASSIDY/LANDRIEU, ASK: And would you DEFINITELY vote for (choice) or just PROBABLY?

IF UNDECIDED/NOT SURE, ASK If you had to choose today, who would you lean toward (repeat candidates)?

TOTAL CASSIDY 57%

TOTAL LANDRIEU 33%

1. Definitely Cassidy 53%

2. Probably Cassidy 2%

3. Lean Cassidy 1%

4. Hard Undecided/DK/Refused DNR 10%

5. Lean Landrieu <1%

6. Probably Landrieu 2%

7. Definitely Landrieu 31%



And now thinking a little more about the candidates for U.S. Senate…

ROTATE Q8-Q10 AND Q11-Q13 AS BLOCKS 8. Would you say what you have seen, read, or heard recently about Bill Cassidy has given you a ROTATE more

or less END ROTATION favorable impression of him, or have you not heard much about Bill Cassidy recently?

TOTAL MORE FAVORABLE 26%

TOTAL LESS FAVORABLE 29%

1. Much more favorable 15%

2. Somewhat more favorable 11%

3. Haven’t seen, read, or heard much 30%

4. DK/Refused DNR 15%

5. Somewhat less favorable 12%

6. Much less favorable 18%

IF Q8:1-2 OR 5-6, ASK Q9-Q10 n=278

9. And, can you tell me what you remember specifically seeing, reading or hearing about Bill Cassidy?

SEE VERBATIM RESPONSES

10. And, can you recall where you read, heard about, or had contact with the Bill Cassidy campaign? Was it ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES

TOTAL PAID MEDIA (Punches 1-5, 9) 89%

TOTAL EARNED MEDIA (Punches 6-8) 27%

4. Television ad you saw 78%

1. Mail you received 23%

6. News coverage of the election 21%

3. Radio ad you heard 18%

5. A phone call you received 7%

2. E-mail you received 6%

7. Something you read on a blog or news website 4%

8. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, or other social media 3%

9. Someone from the campaign came to my door 3%

10. Someone from the campaign talked to you at an event or rally 2%

11. DK/REF DNR 1%



11. Would you say what you have seen, read, or heard recently about Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew) has given you a ROTATE more or less END ROTATION favorable impression of her, or have you not heard much about Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew) recently?

TOTAL MORE FAVORABLE 22%

TOTAL LESS FAVORABLE 41%

1. Much more favorable 15%

2. Somewhat more favorable 7%

3. Haven’t seen, read, or heard much 22%


5. Somewhat less favorable 16%

6. Much less favorable 25%

IF Q11:1-2 OR 5-6, ASK Q12-Q13 n=316 12. And, can you tell me what you remember specifically seeing, reading or hearing about Mary Landrieu (Lan-

drew)?

SEE VERBATIM RESPONSES

13. And, can you recall where you read, heard about, or had contact with the Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew)

campaign? Was it ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES

TOTAL PAID MEDIA (Punches 1-5, 9) 84%

TOTAL EARNED MEDIA (Punches 6-8) 38%

4. Television ad you saw 72%

6. News coverage of the election 28%

1. Mail you received 26%

3. Radio ad you heard 21%

2. E-mail you received 8%

5. A phone call you received 8%

8. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, or other social media 7%

7. Something you read on a blog or news website 6%

10. Someone from the campaign talked to you at an event or rally 3%

9. Someone from the campaign came to my door 1%

11. DK/REF DNR 2%



ROTATE Q14 & Q15 14. I’m going to read a description of a television ad that you may or may not have seen in the last few weeks,

and I’d like you to tell me whether you remember seeing the ad:

A video recording of Bill Cassidy is playing with the narrator saying, “Here is Bill Cassidy trying to sound cool

online talking about the economy.” The narrator goes on to say that “what Bill Cassidy doesn’t tell you is that

he voted against the minimum wage” and that he “is against enforcing equal pay for women” and that “we

should turn some Louisiana colleges into prisons”. The ad ends with the narrator saying “not cool”.

PROMPT IF NECESSARY: Do you recall seeing that ad on TV in the last few weeks?

1. Yes 51%

2. DK/Refused 1%

3. No 48%

15. I’m going to read a description of a television ad that you may or may not have seen in the last few weeks,

and I’d like you to tell me whether you remember seeing the ad:

An image of Senator Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew) appears with the narrator saying “she sold Obamacare to us

the Washington way, with false promises and deception” and that “Obamacare’s chief architect admits it”.

Text appears which says that the Obamacare architect said we passed the law due to the stupidity of the

American voter. Then another image of Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew) appears with the narrator saying that she

would still vote for Obamacare again. The narrator closes by saying that “After eighteen years in Washington

it is time for Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew) to go”.

PROMPT IF NECESSARY: Do you recall seeing that ad on TV in the last few weeks?

1. Yes 66%

2. DK/Refused 3%

3. No 31%

Now, I have just a few more questions for demographic purposes only….

16. Party Registration: PRE-CODE

1. Republican 34%

2. Independent/Other 17%

3. Democrat 49%



17. And, would you say you are a ROTATE Conservative, Moderate, or Liberal END ROTATION in your political beliefs?

IF CONSERVATIVE/LIBERAL, ASK:

And, would you say you are VERY (conservative/liberal) or just SOMEWHAT (conservative/liberal)?

TOTAL CONSERVATIVE 54%

TOTAL LIBERAL 12%

1. Very Conservative 34%

2. Somewhat Conservative 19%

3. Moderate 29%


5. Somewhat Liberal 5%

6. Very Liberal 7%

18. And thinking back to the U.S. Senate Primary in November of 2014, for whom did you vote? ROTATE FIRST THREE

Bill Cassidy, a Republican

Rob Maness (May-niss), a Republican

Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew), a Democrat

…or…

someone else

1. Cassidy 40%

2. Maness 14%

3. Landrieu 32%

4. Someone else 4%

5. Don’t Remember/Did not Vote DNR 4%

6. Refused DNR 6%

19. Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity?

1. White 68%

2. Hispanic, Mexican, Latino, Spanish <1%

3. African-American 29%

4. Asian 0%

5. Other (specify) _________ 1%

6. Refused DNR 2%



20. In what year were you born? RECORD EXACT FOUR DIGIT RESPONSE; RECODE INTO CATEGORIES

1. 18-24 5%

2. 25-34 11%

3. 35-44 14%

4. 45-54 18%

5. 55-64 24%

6. 65-74 16%

7. 75 or over 9%

8. Refused DNR 3%

21. Sex: BY OBSERVATION

1. Male 44%

2. Female 56%

22. Congressional District: PRE-CODE

1. CD 1 16%

2. CD 2 16%

3. CD 3 17%

4. CD 4 16%

5. CD 5 16%

6. CD 6 17%

23. Media Market: PRE-CODE

1. Alexandria 6%

2. Baton Rouge 22%

3. Lafayette 13%

4. Lake Charles 7%

5. Monroe El Dorado 10%

6. New Orleans 31%

7. Shreveport 12%

24. Vote History: PRE-CODE

1. 0 of 4 3%

2. 1 of 4 10%

3. 2 of 4 14%

4. 3 of 4 27%

5. 4 of 4 46%



25. Interview Method: PRE-CODE

1. Cell 25%

2. Landline 75%

Toplines: IWV/WPA LA Senate Study

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