Top 10 Reasons why Peak Oil arrives sooner rather than later
Transcript of Top 10 Reasons why Peak Oil arrives sooner rather than later
Top Ten Reasons Why Peak Oil Arrives Sooner Rather Than Later
For Clear Creek Watershed ForumSteve Andrews
ASPO-USAMarch 21, 2007
This isn’t sustainable…
USA
Mexico
North Sea
FSU
Saudi Arabia
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Eight fold increase
Source: Dr. Peter Wells, Neftex (11/05)
We need a commonframe of reference
• 85 mmb/day – world’s daily dose• 21 mmb/day – US• 14 mmb/day – US transport sector
• 9.5 mmb/day – US gasoline
There are two camps, two views about the peak oil “theory”
Fields peak, then regions, then nations…
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1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
Prudhoe Bay extraction history
The first peak: U.S. oil extraction 1900 - 2050
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GONE: 2/3-3/4 OF U.S. OIL HAS
BEEN USED. IT’S HISTORY.
2005DOWN
THE OIL “OFF
RAMP”
PEAK 1970
Eventually continents peak…
Source: PFC Energy (2004 slides)
! ! !
Timing: add regions and the world peaks
Source: PFC Energy
Source: ASPO-USA; created by OilPoster.org
Key nations past peak• 1. Russia*• 3. USA• 4. Iran*• 5. Mexico• 6. China (this year??)• 7. Norway• 9. Venezuela*• 11. Kuwait*• 15. UK• 17. Libya* (3.3 > 1.7)• 20. Indonesia
• Oman (0.96 > 0.78)• Argentina• Egypt• Columbia• Australia• Syria• Yemen• Denmark• Congo• #39 Gabon
– (0.37 > 0.23)
Primary source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy—2005 data
You can see it now or you can wake up later…
1. Geologic and non-geologic factors
• M. King Hubbert (1956)—for the big picture – There are geologic limits
• Numerous other synergistic constraints against expanding production in a timely way– Timely investment– Logistics– Equipment shortages– Skilled manpower– Weather / extreme environments– Political or military conflict
2. Oil is geographically concentrated, and large producers are flagging
• 20 countries = 83% of production• Half have peaked for various
reasons– Geologic limits: US, Norway, UK,
Indonesia (China peaking soon)– Political/financial/geologic: Mexico,
Russia (now increasing; repeaks soon)– OPEC/political: Iran, Venezuela
(daydreaming of doubling)– Mixed: Iraq, Kuwait, Libya (incr.),
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Note: the depletion slopes shown here could well be more gradual
Russia (ASPO-Ireland)
3. Non-OPEC to peak soon
• Everyone agreed at National Academy of Sciences peak oil workshop (Oct 20-21, 2005)– PFC Energy– ExxonMobil, Chevron– OPEC– CERA– ASPO-Ireland
• Canada, Brazil, Kazakhstan not enough
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Non-OPEC/FSU
Source: Dr. Peter Wells, Neftex
Note: the depletion slopes shown here could well be more gradual
4. Most oil in the Middle East; risks abound
• Riven by religious and cultural conflict
• Cauldron for geopolitical and military conflict
• Muslim countries control 2/3 of remaining conventional oil
• Most are bitterly opposed to US policies
• Resource for expanding production is larger than the current desire/ability to do so
5. Production from non-Gulf OPEC
• Unlikely to compensate for production declines elsewhere
• Nigeria’s problems persist
• Indonesia declining• Venezuela’s spiral not
finished• Newcomer Angola not
large enough
6. Relentless depletion
• If world average decline rate is 5%, we lose 2.5 million barrels/day per year
• If true, we’ll need 20 mbd new by 2015 just to offset depletion
• Largest fields sagging Cantarell
7. National Oil Companies (NOC)s hold the cards
• Roughly 80% of the world’s oil• Some longer term thinking (e.g., oil for the
grandkids) – UAE, Kuwait• A finger in the eye – Venezuela• World energy power flex – Russia• ExxonMobil—12th rated producer, riding a
plateau• Project delays now
increasingly the norm
8. Discovery rates falling
• The big easy oil is gone (Chevron)
• Large non-OPEC finds rare – no repeat cavalry of the 1960s and 1970s
• Offshore West Africa, Caspian, Brazil and GOM are smaller, more complex, more $$ than Prudhoe, North Sea, Cantarell
• Producing 2-3 barrels for every one we find
“2005 will go down in history books as perhaps the poorest year for exploration since World War II…” World Oil magazine 8/06
9. Domestic consumption in exporting countries will play a growing role
• 2006 Russian consumption increased faster than production increased, so exports dropped (based on early reports)
• Iran, Mexico, Venezuela in worse situation• “Peak exports” probably impact before
peak/plateau production • ASPO-USA anticipates peak/plateau
production any time between now and 2015 (2020 at the very outside)
10. Unconventional petroleum resources won’t substantially impact peak
• Not all barrels are equal (“oil shale” is vastly different from tar sands and conventional oil)
• Development is expensive, technically arduous and slow – think delays and dollars
• Other issues– Timing of flow--mostly post-peak?– Rates of flow—can slow but not offset declines– Carbon/environmental footprint– Demand for power, other infrastructure– Net energy
• Oil from sands: 0.5 – 1.5 mmb/day• Gas-to-liquids: 0.4 to 0.75 mmb/day• Ethanol (corn): 0.3 to 0.4 mmb/day (% of crop?) • Coal-to-liquids: 0.1 to 0.4 mmb/day• Oil from shale: 0 to 0.1• Biodiesel 0.1?• Electricity for PIHEVs: 0 to 0.2• Hydrogen: zero (25 fueling stations today)• Efficiency: 1.0 – 2.0 mmb/day• Mode shifting: 1 to 3 mmb/day
Additional unconventional fuels by 2015 (potential peak)
Alt fuels: net energy is really important
Input Output
U. S. oil industry today: 1 to 15
Ethanol from corn: 1 to 1.3
Kerogen from marlstone;
oil from tar sands SAGD
1 to 3 +/-
Impacts and form matter
??
• Texas oil 1930: 100 to 1• US oil 1970: 30 to 1• Wind today: 18 to 1• US oil today: 15 to 1• Ethanol ( Brazil) 8 to 1• Coal to liquids, gas to liquids: 6-1 to 8-to-1 (est.)• Oil sands SAGD: 3 to 1 (mining =higher EROEI)• Oil shale: 3.5 to 2.0 to 1 (Shell’s fig.)• Ethanol from corn 1.5 to 1 (ave. gov’t figures)• Electricity from coal: 0.35 to 1• Solar (6 to 1?), nukyalur? cellulosic ethanol? H2?
Net Energy; also known as “Energy Returned on Energy Invested”
Many of these have ranges. Wind and solar vary with location. Ethanol from corn varies from irrigated to non-irrigated crops. Source: Cutler Cleveland, Boston Univ.