Tonn energy greenexpo

Case Study : How Can Ireland Become The Prime Mover In Wave Energy?Green Energy ExpMay, 2010

Harvey Appelbe

© Vattenfall AB

Case study: Tonn Energy

• Background: who are we?

• Day 1: what we expected?

• Year 1: what happened

• Year 2: what is happening

© Vattenfall AB 2

• Year 2: what is happening

• Year ?: what could happen

Europe’s main electricity companies

European electricity generation TWh Net sales, EUR billions

90

80

70

60

50

Background: Who are Vattenfall?

© Vattenfall AB© Vattenfall AB 29

40

30

20

10

0

€18B170 TWh

Five strategic ambitions

Number One forthe Environment

Number One for the Customer



Employer of Choice

Benchmark for the Industry

Profitable Growth

A substantial contribution to sustainable development is essential for trust and for licence to operate and grow.

• New low-emitting energy generation• Increased efficiency of existing production• R&D to reduce CO emissions and

Number One for the Environment



• R&D to reduce CO2 emissions and increase renewable energy

• Promotion of global and market-oriented climate solutions

Profitable Growth

Size carries strategic advantages.Profitable growth is vital forcompetitiveness and sustainedeconomic value.

• Organic expansion – construction of new plants, upgrading and renewal



new plants, upgrading and renewal of existing plants

• Acquisitions in priority markets – the UK, the Benelux countries, France and Central Europe

• Business development – focus on efficient use of energy and biomass fuels

Making electricity clean

Strategic direction over the coming decades

• Reducing environmental impact from all operations

• Emphasising the important role of electricity in the future sustainable society

Commitment to customers and society



Commitment to customers and society

• Operations climate-neutral by 2050 (by 2030 for the Nordic operations)

• 50 per cent reduction in emissions from own operations by 2030 compared with 1990

Climate goals integrated in business strategy

• Long-term profitable growth needed to realise vision

Expanding generation, expanding renewables

2008 2030

23,1

44,1

15%

40%

170 TWh

CoalCCS

Coal

Background: Why Ocean Energy?

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30,42,4

44,1

Coal Gas Nuclear Coal CCS Renewables

20%

20%

5%

Coal

GasNuclear

Renewables

Vattenfall’s CO 2 emissions roadmap


© Vattenfall AB 9

- Technology?- Politics?- Economy?

Vattenfall’s targetReduce emissions by 50% from 1990 to 2030

2030 – 2050: 100% emission neutral

Vattenfall wants to grow and intends to be climate neutral in 2050: “making electricity clean”

Options include ...• Nuclear power; where it is accepted• Efficient and smart energy consumption


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• Efficient and smart energy consumption• Smart grids that can handle renewable generation

...and lots of new renewable energy ... • Offshore Wind Power • CCS-technology• Ocean Energy

Global Ocean Energy (Winter)


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Ocean Energy projects


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Previous or existing devicePlanned future scheme

Vattenfall’s Ocean Energy Program

Program Management

Administration &

Steeringcommitté

Ulf Tisell

Dr. Lars StrömbergGöran Lundgren

Owner Dr. Helmar Rendez

Annika Andersson (L)Gunilla Andrée (L)Magnus Andersson (T/P/S)Fredrik Carlsson (T)Katarina Eriksson (L)Erik Fröberg (P/T)Anders Johnsson (P)Jonas Gidlund (T/P/S)Pehr Hjalmarsson (P)

(T) Technology & Grid(L) Localisation & Environm.(P) Pilote projects(S) Site development

Background: The Ocean Energy Program

© Vattenfall AB 13

ManagementAdministration &Communication

Localisation &environment

Technology &grid

Pilotprojects

Sitedevelopment

Per Holmberg Kristin Andersen José SilvaOskar Danielsson

Urban Henfridsson

Lars UgglaBirgitta Berglöw

Ulf Tisell

Vattenfall competence pool

Pehr Hjalmarsson (P)Tor Isdal (S)Thommy Karlsson (P)Niclas Christoffersson (T/P/S)Dean McGowan (L)Thomas Olsson (L)Jonas Persson (T)Daniel Salomonsson (T)Erik Segergren (T/S)Marco Sipi (P)Erik Sparrevik (L/P)Lovisa Stenberg (T)Kerstin Strandanger (T/P/S)Kristian Toresson (T/S)Kjell Wester (L)

Cheese


© Vattenfall AB 14

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30

2010 2011 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019 2020 20212009

Demo PhaseGrid Connected

Commercial PhaseProfitable

2022

Pilot Phase

Learning curve

€ct/kWh


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0

5

10

15

20

25

0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 MW

Carbon Trust 2006, 10-15 % learning rate

*

Vattenfall Estimation


ScotlandIreland

Sweden

30

2010 2011 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019 2020 20212009

Demo PhaseGrid Connected

Commercial PhaseProfitable

2022

Pilot Phase

Learning curve

€ct/kWh


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0

5

10

15

20

25

0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 MW

Carbon Trust 2006, 10-15 % learning rate

*



ScotlandIreland

Sweden

2000 MW

The work

Environmental impact certainty

Operation in real marine climate.

Hard to predict the economics (incl O&M)


© Vattenfall AB 17

economics (incl O&M)

Transmission grid capacity and upgrade.

Subsea super grid to be developed.

Public and local appetite

Early days. Back several horses.


© Vattenfall AB 18

Seabased

Pelamis

Wavebob

Technology / technologies proved to gain best economical result

Vattenfall - Proof of concept 10-20 MW per plant

Wavebob

• Do pilot tests• Establish sites• Increase know-how

• Demonstrations• Site Development

Commercialwave and tidal

farms

2010 2011 2019 2020 20212009 20222012 2013 2017 2018

The race


© Vattenfall AB 19

to gain best economical result

On markets with the best commercial conditions

100-200 MW 100-200 MW

10-20 MW per plant

Making use of national market support schemes

Pilot tests Demonstrations

Seabased

Pelamis

Technology / technologies proved to gain best economical result

Wavebob

• Do pilot tests• Establish sites• Increase know-how

• Demonstrations• Site Development

Commercialwave and tidal

farms

2010 2011 2019 2020 20212009 20222012 2013 2017 2018

Tonn Energy is Ireland in this race.

Proof of concept arrayInvestigatePrepare

Background: Tonn Energy

© Vattenfall AB 20

to gain best economical result

On markets with the best commercial conditions

100-200 MW 100-200 MW

Making use of national market support schemes

Pilot tests Demonstrations

Seabased

Pelamis

Proof of concept arrayLearn more

PrepareLearn

Criteria

• Scalable Technology

• Wave climate

• ”Full load hours”

• Technical availability

Day 1: What we expected

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• Incentives

• Open for business

• O&M strategy

Criteria


• Wave climate




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• Incentives


• O&M strategy

Criteria


• Wave climate




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• Incentives


• O&M strategy

Mullaghnmore Head, Ireland: 1 December 2007

14m waves recorded at wave bouys.

Criteria

• Scalable Technology Wavebob

• Wave climate



50 KW/m wave

3000 – 5000 hours

60 – 80%


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• Incentives


• O&M strategy

60 – 80%

220 €/MWh

Criteria


• Wave climate



50 KW/m wave

3000 – 5000 hours

60 – 80%


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• Incentives

• Open for business OE Strategy

• O&M strategy

60 – 80%

220 €/MWh

Criteria


• Wave climate



50 KW/m wave

3000 – 5000 hours

60 – 80%


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• Incentives

• Open for business OE Strategy

• O&M strategy ?!

60 – 80%

220 €/MWh

Ocean Energy - Main focus on wave power

UK 840 TWh

Ireland 525 TWh

Norway 500 TWh

Portugal 80 TWh

Denmark 30 TWh

Sweden 30 TWh

Germany 5 TWh

Wave Power Potential Huge potential in our part of the world

Several technologies brought to our attention

Three Business Groups as of 2009

Vattenfall Nordic(Sweden, Finland, Denmark)

Vattenfall Pan -Europe

Setup


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Portugal 80 TWh

Vattenfall´s Core Market

A little bit more lasting and predictable than

wind

Our ambition is 30 TWh/afor 2030

© Vattenfall AB 21

Vattenfall Central Europe(Germany and Poland)

Vattenfall Pan -Europe(Wind, Nuclear, Engineering)

Roadmap

Year 1: What happened

Growth / Maturity

€CommercialViability

OperationalFeasibility

TechnicalReliability €

© Vattenfall AB 29

?000MW

West Coast

250MW

Site 1

Commercialisation

5MW

Belmullet

Graduation

i1MW

Galway

TechnicalFeasibility

Incubation

i

€

Graduate Project


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Graduate Project

�Environmental Impacts

�Commercial Fisheries

�Recreation users

�Shipping navigation

�Infrastructures (ports, roads)


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�Public concern and opinion

�Seascape

�Archaeology and heritage

�Survivability

�Operation & maintenance

Graduate Project Permit Plan


H1 H2 H3 H4

Project Management

Foreshore License

License application successful

On-shore planning

Environmental Impact

AssessmentMarine Archeology

Foreshore Lease

Design specifications

Foreshore Lease

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Marine Archeology

ESB Network Application

Technical specifications

CER License to construct

CER License to generate

Power purchase agreement

Health & Safety

Community Engagement

PR Compaign

Public Information Campaign

InsuranceSupply chain & Logistics

Deployment specifications

Consenting agencies


DCENR

CER

SEI

ESBn

Eirgrid

MarineForeshoreLease

Licence toConstruct

OEU

DAFF

ElectricalConnection

© Vattenfall AB 33

DHELG

DúchasUAU

CoCo

AnBord

UdarásCommunity

Planning

EnvironmentalImpact

CommunityAcceptance

DoCRGA

Consenting agencies


DCENR

CER

SEI

ESBn

Eirgrid


Licence toConstruct

OEDU

DAFF


© Vattenfall AB 34

DHELG

DúchasUAU

CoCo

AnBord

UdarásCommunity

Planning

EnvironmentalImpact

CommunityAcceptance

DoCRGA

Go

Wait

Stop

Consenting agencies


DCENR

CER

SEI

ESBn

Eirgrid


Licence toConstruct

OEDU

DAFF


© Vattenfall AB 35

DHELG

DúchasUAU

CoCo

AnBord

UdarásCommunity

Planning

EnvironmentalImpact

CommunityAcceptance

DoCRGA

Go

Wait

Stop

Consenting agencies


DCENR

CER

SEI

ESBn

Eirgrid


Licence toConstruct

OEDU

DAFF


© Vattenfall AB 36

DHELG

DúchasUAU

CoCo

AnBord

UdarásCommunity

Planning

EnvironmentalImpact

CommunityAcceptance

DoCRGA

Go

Wait

Stop

Consenting agencies


DCENR

CER

SEI

ESBn

Eirgrid


Licence toConstruct

OEDU

DAFF


© Vattenfall AB 37

DHELG

DúchasUAU

CoCo

AnBord

UdarásCommunity

Planning

EnvironmentalImpact

CommunityAcceptance

DoCRGA

Go

Wait

Stop

Consenting agencies


DCENR

CER

SEI

ESBn

Eirgrid


Licence toConstruct

OEDU

DAFF


© Vattenfall AB 38

DHELG

DúchasUAU

CoCo

AnBord

UdarásCommunity

Planning

EnvironmentalImpact

CommunityAcceptance

DoCRGA

Go

Wait

Stop

Consenting agencies


DCENR

CER

SEI

ESBn

Eirgrid


Licence toConstruct

OEDU

DAFF


© Vattenfall AB 39

DHELG

DúchasUAU

CoCo

AnBord

UdarásCommunity

Planning

EnvironmentalImpact

CommunityAcceptance

DoCRGA

Go

Wait

Stop

Project Management

Foreshore License

License application successful

On-shore planning

Environmental Impact

AssessmentMarine Archeology

Foreshore Lease

Design specifications

Graduate Project Permit Plan


Foreshore Lease

H1 H2 H3 H4

© Vattenfall AB

Marine Archeology

ESB Network Application

Technical specifications

CER License to construct

CER License to generate

Power purchase agreement

Health & Safety

Community Engagement

PR Compaign

Public Information Campaign

InsuranceSupply chain & Logistics

Deployment specifications

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Solution

Year 2: What is happening

VendorDevices

WaveClimate

SubseaCables

Substation

ESBnConnection

DeviceArray

WaveClimate

SubseaCable

Substation

ESBnConnection

© Vattenfall AB 41

LandLease

On landPlanning

Connection

CERPermission

ForeshoreLease

EIS

LandLease

On landPlanning

Connection

CERPermission

ForeshoreLease

EIS

SEAI Tonn Energy

Collaboration


PartnerDevices

DedicatedCables

ESBnConnection

CERPermission

DeviceArray

WaveClimate

SubseaCable

ESBnConnection

CERPermission

VendorDevices

WaveClimate

SubseaCables

Substation

ESBnConnection

DeviceArray

WaveClimate

SubseaCable

Substation

ESBnConnection

© Vattenfall AB 42

Permission

ForeshoreLease

Substation

LandLease

On landPlanning

Permission

EIS

LandLease

On landPlanning

Connection

CERPermission

ForeshoreLease

EIS

LandLease

On landPlanning

Connection

CERPermission

ForeshoreLease

EIS

SEAI Tonn Energy Collaboration

Roadmap

Year ?: What could happen

Growth / Maturity

€CommercialViability

OperationalFeasibility

TechnicalReliability €

© Vattenfall AB 45

?000MW

West Coast

250MW

Site 1

Commercialisation

5MW

Belmullet

Graduation

i1MW

Galway

TechnicalFeasibility

Incubation

i

€

Timeline


2010 2012 2016 20202014 2018

Learnings

SEA/OREDP

Reorganisation

Awareness Consultation

Test Site

Environmental

Spatial Planning

Permitting

Public Attitude

© Vattenfall AB 53

Allocation

Consenting

Permitting

Timeline


2010 2012 2016 20202014 2018

Learnings

SEA/OREDP

Reorganisation

Awareness Consultation

Test Site

Environmental

Spatial Planning

Permitting

Public Attitude

© Vattenfall AB 54

Analysis

Allocation

Consenting

Construction

Design

Grid Access

Permitting

Timeline


2010 2012 2016 20202014 2018

Learnings

SEA/OREDP

Reorganisation

awareness Consultation

Test Site

Environmental

Spatial Planning

Permitting

Public Attitude

© Vattenfall AB 55

Analysis

Allocation

Consenting

Construction

Design

Grid Access

Permitting

Timeline


2010 2012 2016 20202014 2018

Learnings

SEA/OREDP

Reorganisation


Test Site

Environmental

Spatial Planning

Permitting

Public Attitude

© Vattenfall AB 56

Analysis

Allocation

Consenting

Construction

DesignEvaluation

Construction

Design

Consenting

Grid Access

Permitting

Industrial Development

Timeline


2010 2012 2016 20202014 2018

Learnings

SEA/OREDP

Reorganisation


Test Site

Environmental

Spatial Planning

Permitting

Public Attitude

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Construction

Analysis

Allocation

Consenting

Construction

DesignEvaluation

Design

Consenting

Grid Access

Permitting

Industrial Development

Timeline


2010 2012 2016 20202014 2018

Test Site

Environmental

Learnings

SEA/OREDPSpatial Planning

Permitting Reorganisation

awarenessPublic Attitude Consultation

© Vattenfall AB 58

AnalysisGrid Access

PermittingAllocation

Consenting

Construction

DesignIndustrial Development Evaluation

Design

Consenting

InfrastructurePlanning

Policy/mobilise

Construction & development

Construction

If climate change is still a problem...

Utilities like Vattenfall will develop wave farms of utility scale.

Vattenfall, on its own, have ambitions for some 30TWh for 2030+

This means a CAPEX of some €15B - €20B, and

© Vattenfall AB 59

This means a CAPEX of some €15B - €20B, and an annually O&M cost of some €0,5B:• Boats / seamen• Workshop / mechanics• Workshop / electricians

Initially half in Ireland, half in Scotland?

HELP!

Case study: Tonn Energy

• Background: who are we? An example multi-national looking to invest

• Day 1: what we expected? Great resource, & open for business

• Year 1: what happened Opening for business

• Year 2: what is happening Open for collaborative work

Summary

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• Year 2: what is happening Open for collaborative work

• Year ?: what could happen Jigsaw pieces fall into placeBe the most open for businessBe the earliest

Be the best. Take the opportunity.

Take the opportunity....

• 2010, formulate a spatial plan (SEA/OREDP) for Ocean Energy

• 2011, allocate some sea floor to earnest, qualified developers.

• 2012, design and plan the grid capacity required to these sites

• 2013, commence construction of the grid capacity

Summary

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• 2013, commence construction of the grid capacity

• 2014, commence construction of the infrastructure (ports, workforce...)

• 2014-16, go through the consenting process for these projects

• 2017, ramp up to employment, construction and deployment

• 2020, be the first country to have an open, effective process and 500MW

Tonn energy greenexpo

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