Tomorrow's Women, Tomorrow's World
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Transcript of Tomorrow's Women, Tomorrow's World
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Research BriefingNo. 11
The occasion of the 2009 UKRC Annual Conference with its theme: the science, engineering and technology workforce and workplace in 2030, has given us an opportunity to review the data we have been gathering from 2002 onwards and use it as the basis for some simple statistical forecasting about womens engagement in SET1 education and employment in 2030.
We have used a simple forecasting technique2 which presumes constant growth i.e. that the changes we have seen in the last five years will continue at the same rate into the future. Some might argue that the present (unpredicted) economic problems are likely to slow or even reverse - the rate of growth we have seen. On the other hand, others might argue that since previous post-war recessions have not halted the continuous long-term increase in the participation of women in SET, there is no reason to think that this one will. It might even be that the rate of growth will accelerate as science and engineering are now being positively promoted as the growth sectors of the future. Whatever position you take we hope that our forecasts give you data to fuel your thinking.
In this short briefing we used five statistical indictors of the participation of women in SET: in education (GCE A level and Higher Education), in employment, and in positions of power (SET professors and women on the boards of SET FTSE 100 companies). In each case we show you where women will be in 2030 if growth continues at the same rate as it has been in the last five years. In many cases the 2030 situation will be a long way away from a state of equity with men. We hope these forecasts contribute to the debate about where we can best make an impact to improve womens participation in SET, and increase the UKs future capacity in SET.
Tomorrows Women, Tomorrows WorldWhat do key statistics indicate about womens engagement in SET education and employment in the present and in the future?
Where are We noW?
Girlsare42.4%ofGCEAlevelstudents in STEM subjects.Womenmakeup33.5%ofallhigher education (HE) students in SET disciplines.Womenrepresent18.5%ofSETemployees.Womenhold9.0%ofdirectorshipsin the UK FTSE 100 companies in SET sectors. 8.0%ofallSETprofessorsarefemale.
Where Will We be in 2030?
Girlswillbe45.7%ofGCEAlevelstudents in STEM subjects.Womenwillmakeup39.4%ofallHEstudents in SET disciplines.Womenwillrepresent20.9%ofSETemployees.Womenwillhold18.0%ofdirectorships in the UK FTSE 100 companies in SET sectors. Asmanyas28.3%ofSETprofessors will be female.
When Will We achieve equal proporTions of Women and men?
FemaleandmaleGCEAlevelstudentsinSTEM subjectswillbeequallyrepresentedin2058.
FemaleHEstudentsinSETdisciplines willreach50%representationin2069.
ProportionofwomeninSETemploymentwill notreach50%inthe21stcentury.
GenderequalityamongdirectorsoftheUK FTSE 100 SET companies will be achieved in2073.
WomenSETprofessorswillreachequal representationwiththeirmalepeersin2045.
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PostCompulsoryEducation TheproportionofgirlsamongallstudentsundertakingSTEMsubjectsatAlevelhasincreasedby 0.6percentagepointsinthelastfiveyears.Ifthisincreasecontinuesatthesamerate,by2030girls willbe45.7%ofSTEMAlevelstudents.Girlsandboyswillbeequallyrepresentedby2058. Theoverallfiguresdisguisethefactthatin2007/8girlsmadeuponly7.5%ofallcomputerscience studentsand21.4%ofallphysicsstudents.
Higher Education TheproportionofwomenamongallSETundergraduateandpostgraduatestudentsincreasedby1.0 percentage point in the last five years. If this increase continues at the same rate, by 2030 women will be 39.4%ofallstudentstakingSET-relatedsubjects,andtheywillachieveequalrepresentationby2069. Womenare33.5%ofallstudentsinSETdisciplines,buttheymakeuponly15.9%ofengineeringand technologystudentsand21.4%ofcomputersciencestudents.
The 2030 forecast for girls undertaking STEM subjects at A level in England
The 2030 forecast for women undergraduate and postgraduate students in SET at UK HE institutions
The 2030 forecast for female full-time SET professors at UK HE institutions
The 2030 forecast for women directors in SET FTSE 100 companies
2003/04
79.1
2004/05
78.9
2005/06
81.9
2006/07
84.5
2007/08
87.0
2029/300
50
100
150
20
30
40
50
10
146.8
41.8 41.8 42.042.8 42.4 45.7
FEMALE
PROPORTIO
N(%
)(0
00S
)
NUMBER(000S)
%
2002/03
168.2
2003/04
177.8
2004/05
182.5
2005/06
186.5
2006/07
188.7
2029/300
100
200
300
400
20
30
40
10
39.4
32.5 32.6 33.133.4 33.5
366.0
FEMALE
PROPORTIO
N(%
)(0
00S
)
NUMBER(000S)
%
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Female SET Academics Numbersoffemaleandmaleacademics(excludingprofessors)haveincreasedsince2003/4by8.2% and0.1%respectively. Onein4academics(excludingprofessors)isfemale,showingaproportionalgrowthoffemale academicssince2003/4of1.5percentagepoints. Numbersoffemaleandmaleprofessorshaveincreasedsince2003/4by39.7%and15.0%respectively. Theratiooffemalestudentstofemaleprofessorsis1to429,whiletheratioofmalestudentsto maleprofessorsis1to75. Womenarelessthan5%ofprofessorsinphysics,mathematics,civilengineering,mineral,metallurgy & materials engineering, electrical, electronic & computer engineering, and mechanical, aero & production engineering. TheproportionofwomenamongallSETprofessorsgrewby1.6percentagepointsinthelast4years. Ifthisincreasecontinuesatthesamerate,by2030womenwillbe28.3%ofallSETprofessors.Women professorswillreachequalrepresentationwiththeirmalepeersin2045.
Women directors in the SET FTSE 100 companies TheproportionofwomenamongFTSE100directorsinSETsectorsincreasedby1.0percentagepointin thelastsixyears.Ifthisincreasecontinuesatthesamerate,by2030womenwillbe18.0%ofall directorsofSETFTSE100companies.Womenwillreachequalrepresentationin2073.Thenumbersof femaledirectorshaveincreasedby34.5%since2003,explainingtherelativelyrapidpredictivegrowth. JustoveroneinfourcompaniesinSETsectorshadmorethanonefemaledirectorontheircorporate boards,whileexclusivelymaleboardsstillexistin35.0%ofSETcompanies.
The 2030 forecast for girls undertaking STEM subjects at A level in England
The 2030 forecast for women undergraduate and postgraduate students in SET at UK HE institutions
The 2030 forecast for female full-time SET professors at UK HE institutions
The 2030 forecast for women directors in SET FTSE 100 companies
NUMBER
%
2003/04
315
2004/05
345
2005/06
400
2006/07
440
2029/300
3000
6000
15
30
0
5749
6.4 6.97.6 8.0
28.3
FEMALE
PROPORTIO
N(%
)
2003
29
2004
29
2005
40
2006
34
2007 2008
34 39
20300
100
150
50
200
10
20
0
193
8.0 8.2
9.8
8.59.2
18.0
FEMALE
PROPORTIO
N(%
)
NUMBER
%
9.0
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Employment in SET ThenumberofwomenemployedinSEToccupationshasincreasedsince2002by11.4%,whilethe numberofmenemployedinSETincreasedbyonly8.5%. ProportionofwomenamongallemployeesinSETincreasedby0.4percentagepointsinthelast 6years.Ifthisincreasecontinuesatthesamerate,by2030womenwillbe20.9%ofallSETemployees. TheproportionofwomeninSETemploymentwillnotreach50%inthe21stcentury. ThereisadifferentialdistributionofwomeninSEToccupations.Womenare38.7%ofscience professionals,5.4%ofengineeringprofessionals,14.3%ofICTprofessionalsand18.8%ofbuilding professionals. The fastest growth was observed among female building professionals whose numbers almostdoubledoverthelast6years,whilethenumbersofmalebuildingprofessionalshaveshownonly a slight increase.
Further copies of this research briefing and the others in the series are available from:www.ukrc4setwomen.org
FOOTNOTES:1. STEM subject and SET occupational classificationsSTEM subject classification: http://www.ukrc4setwomen.org.uk/downloads/STEM_subjects.pdf SET occupation classification: http://www.ukrc4setwomen.org.uk/downloads/SET_occupation_classification.pdf
2. Forecasting The exponential model for this analysis is based on the assumption of a constant growth rate, r. The model is described by the following:Pn+1 = (1 + r)Pn (n = 0, 1, 2,)Where Pn is the population size at n years after some chosen starting time.
3. Data sourcesGCE A level: DfES (2005 - 2007) & DCSF (2008, 2009)Higher Education: HESA (2005 - 2008) Students in Higher Education Institutions 2003/04 - 2006/07. Cheltenham, HESA.HE Academic Staff: HESA (2005 - 2008) Resources of Higher Education Institutions 2003/04 - 2006/07. Cheltenham, HESA.SET employment: Office for National Statistics; Quarterly Labour Force Survey, January - December, 2002 - 2007. Distributed by the Economic and Social Data Service. Female FTSE 100 in SET: Data were extrapolated from The 2003 Female FTSE Index, The 2004 Female FTSE Index, The Female FTSE Index 2005, The Female FTSE Report 2006, The Female FTSE Report 2007, and The Female FTSE Report 2008 published by the International Centre for Women Leaders at Cranfield University.
The 2030 forecast for women in SET occupations in the UK
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20300 10
518,148
482,872
519,459552,843
556,409577,165
500,000
1,000,000
14
18
22
20.9
FEMALE
PROPORTIO
N(%
)
NUMBER
%
18.1
17.0
17.9
18.618.2
18.5
976,843
research, data and policy Team
UK Resource Centre for Women in Science, Engineering and TechnologyListerhillsParkofScienceandCommerce4042CampusRoad,Bradford,BD71HR
Tel:01274436485Fax:01274436471
Email:[email protected]:www.ukrc4setwomen.org
PublishedbyUKResourceCentreinMarch2009