Tomorrow Today - CPCU Society adaptive cruise control) (blind spot warning) Buick Lane departure...

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Transcript of Tomorrow Today - CPCU Society adaptive cruise control) (blind spot warning) Buick Lane departure...

Tomorrow Today Safe-Driving Technologies of

Tomorrow, Here Today

Co-Sponsored by the

CPCU Personal Lines Interest Group

& the Information Technology Interest Group

• Learn about technologies that are changing the driving experience—

from assisting drivers to eliminating the need for them altogether

• Explore regulatory and insurance industry changes and challenges

resulting from these new capabilities

• Further meet customer expectations by gaining perspective from a

panel of experts on adopting and using new technologies

Learning Objectives

Opening Remarks

Need Section/Presentation Title

Kim Hazelbaker

Senior Vice President, Highway Loss Data Institute

Autonomous Vehicles in California

Bernard C. Soriano, PhD

Deputy Director, California DMV

Issues Raised by Autonomous Cars

Patrick B. Woods, FCAS, MAAA

Assistant Vice President & Actuary, Personal Automobile Actuarial,

ISO Insurance Programs and Analytic Services

Open Forum

Agenda

Crash Avoidance

Technologies Kim Hazelbaker

Senior Vice President, Highway Loss Data

Institute

www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety

•Founded in 1959

•An independent, nonprofit, scientific, and educational organization

•Dedicated to reducing the losses — deaths, injuries, and property

damage — from crashes on the nation's highways

The Highway Loss Data Institute •Founded in 1972

•Shares and supports this mission through scientific studies of insurance

data and by publishing insurance loss results by vehicle make and model.

Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.

www.hldi.org

Member groups • Acceptance Insurance

• ACE Private Risk Services

• Affirmative Insurance

• Alfa Alliance Insurance Corporation

• Alfa Insurance

• Allstate Insurance Group

• American Family Mutual Insurance

• American National Property and Casualty Company

• Ameriprise Auto & Home

• Amica Mutual Insurance Company

• Auto Club Enterprises

• Auto Club Group

• Auto-Owners Insurance

• Aviva Insurance

• Bankers Insurance Group

• Bituminous Insurance Companies

• California Casualty Group

• California State Auto Group

• Capital Insurance Group

• Chubb & Son

• Colorado Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company

• Commonwealth Mutual Insurance Company of America

• Concord Group Insurance Companies

• COUNTRY Financial

• CSAA Insurance Group

• CSE Insurance Group

• Direct General Corporation

• Erie Insurance Group

• Esurance

• Farm Bureau Financial Services

• Farm Bureau Insurance of Michigan

• Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company of Idaho

• Farmers Insurance Group of Companies

• Farmers Mutual Hail Insurance Company of Iowa

• Farmers Mutual of Nebraska

• Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies

• Frankenmuth Insurance

• Freestone Insurance Company

• Gainsco Insurance

• GEICO Group

• The General Insurance

• Georgia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company

• Goodville Mutual Casualty Company

• Grange Insurance

• Hallmark Insurance Company

• Hanover Insurance Group

• The Hartford

• Haulers Insurance Company, Inc.

• Horace Mann Insurance Companies

• ICW Group

• Imperial Fire & Casualty Insurance Company

• Indiana Farmers Mutual Insurance Company

• Infinity Property & Casualty

• Kemper Preferred

• Kentucky Farm Bureau Insurance

• Liberty Mutual Insurance Company

• Louisiana Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company

• Maryland Automobile Insurance Fund

• Mercury Insurance Group

• MetLife Auto & Home

• Michigan Millers Mutual Insurance Company

• MiddleOak

• Mississippi Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company

• MMG Insurance

• Mutual of Enumclaw Insurance Company

• Nationwide

• New Jersey Manufacturers Insurance Group

• Nodak Mutual Insurance Company

• Norfolk & Dedham Group

• North Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company

• Northern Neck Insurance Company

• Ohio Mutual Insurance Group

• Old American County Mutual Fire Insurance

• Old American Indemnity Company

• Oregon Mutual Insurance

• Pekin Insurance

• PEMCO Insurance

• Plymouth Rock Assurance

• Progressive Corporation

• QBE

• The Responsive Auto Insurance Company

• Rockingham Group

• Safe Auto Insurance

• Safeco Insurance

• Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Company

• SECURA Insurance

• Sentry Insurance

• Shelter Insurance

• Sompo Japan Insurance Company of America

• South Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company

• Southern Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company

• State Auto Insurance Companies

• State Farm

• Tennessee Farmers Mutual Insurance Company

• Texas Farm Bureau Insurance Companies

• Tower Group Companies

• The Travelers Companies

• United Educators

• USAA

• Utica National Insurance Group

• Virginia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance

• West Bend Mutual Insurance Company

• Western National

• Westfield Insurance

• XL Group plc

• Zurich North America

www.hldi.org

50th Anniversary

www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org

Forty Mile per Hour Frontal Offset Crash Test

1959 Chevrolet Bel Air and 2009 Chevrolet Malibu

www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org

Size of HLDI Passenger Vehicle Database Number of unique VINs in files, September 2014

Model Year Number of Vehicles

2005 16,045,166

2006 15,097,690

2007 14,819,925

2008 13,089,841

2009 8,559,498

2010 9,847,982

2011 10,358,232

2012 11,062,716

2013 11,253,485

2014 7,225,990

Total 117,360,525

www.hldi.org

Crash Avoidance Systems

www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org

Driver assistance features

Radar, LIDAR, ultrasonic, infrared, cameras, GPS

www.hldi.org

Mercedes Advertisement

www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org

PDL Claim Frequencies for 2010-12 Volvo XC60 With

City Safety vs. Other 2009-12 Midsize Luxury SUVs

0

2

4

6

8

10Calendar years 2009-12

www.hldi.org

Volvo XC60 City Safety Updated Results

Vs. Other Volvos Claim

Frequency

Claim

Severity

Overall

Losses

Property damage

liability -8.3% -5.2% -1.9% $206 $291 $373 $0 $4 $7

Bodily injury -41.5% -33.7% -

25.0%

Collision -13.3% -11.4% -9.3% -$261 -$148 -$38 -$50 -$40 -$30

Vs. Other Midsize

Luxury SUVs

Claim

Frequency

Claim

Severity

Overall

Losses

Property damage

liability -16.0% -14.6% -13.1% -$89 -$42 $4 -$17 -$15 -$12

Bodily injury -37.6% -33.3% -28.7%

Collision -21.1% -20.2% -19.3% -$512 -$450 -$389 -$98 -$92 -$86

www.hldi.org

Collision Avoidance Technology

Acura

Adaptive headlights, collision mitigation braking

system (forward collision warning with auto brake

and adaptive cruise control) (blind spot warning)

Buick Lane departure warning, rear park assist

Infiniti

Adaptive headlights, adaptive cruise control,

adaptive cruise control with full stop, around view

monitor, brake assist, lane departure warning, lane

departure prevention, rear camera (advance brake

assist, low speed follow, forward collision warning

with auto brake)

www.hldi.org

Collision Avoidance Technology

Mazda Adaptive headlights, blind spot warning, rear

camera

Mercedes Benz

Adaptive headlights, adaptive head beam assist,

attention assist, active blind spot assist, blind spot

warning, distronic, DistronicPlus PreSafe brake,

lane departure warning, night view assist, night

view assist with pedestrian protection, ParkTronic,

rear camera (Distronic Plus, lane departure

prevention, park assist, park guidance)

Volvo

Adaptive headlights, blind spot warning, park

assist, rear camera (adaptive cruise control, lane

departure warning, forward collision warning with

auto brake)

www.hldi.org

Collision Avoidance Research Project Methods

Covariates

Calendar year, vehicle series and model year,

rated driver age, rated driver gender, rated driver marital status,

rated driver risk, state, registered vehicle density

Model years 2000-11

Calendar years 1999-2011

Modeling

approach

Only vehicles with features included, each feature

treated as a variable, model run for each coverage type

for frequency and severity

www.hldi.org

Forward Collision Warning

www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org

Property Damage Liability Losses

for Forward Collision Warning

With Feature vs. Without

Claim

Frequency

Claim

Severity

Overall

Losses

Mercedes

with adaptive cruise

control

-12.0% -7.1% -1.9% -$100 $58 $225 -$10 -$4 $2

Volvo

with adaptive cruise

control

-21.9% -7.1% 10.6% -$201 $266 $821 -$18 $2 $27

www.hldi.org

Forward Collision Warning

With Auto Brake

www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org

Property Damage Liability Losses

for Forward Collision Warning With Auto Brake

With Feature vs. Without

Claim

Frequency

Claim

Severity

Overall

Losses

Acura

with adaptive cruise

control

-25.9% -14.2% -0.6% -$323 $69 $523 -$24 -$10 $7

Mercedes

with adaptive cruise

control

-23.3% -14.3% -4.2% -$191 $126 $479 -$19 -$8 $4

Volvo

with lane departure

warning

& driver alert

-25.1% -10.0% 8.2% -$501 -$83 $415 -$29 -$11 $11

www.hldi.org

Adaptive Headlights

www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org

Collision Losses for Adaptive Headlights

With Feature vs. Without

Claim

Frequency

Claim

Severity

Overall

Losses

Acura -11.9% -2.0% 9.0% -$466 $12 $556 -$40 -$4 $38

Mazda -12.0% -6.4% -0.6% -$132 $126 $403 -$33 -$9 $17

Mercedes -1.9% -0.1% 1.8% $628 $758 $891 $42 $54 $67

Volvo -4.2% -0.7% 2.9% -$28 $149 $333 -$7 $8 $24

www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org

Property Damage Liability Losses

for Adaptive Headlights

With Feature vs. Without

Claim

Frequency

Claim

Severity

Overall

Losses

Acura -20.3% -6.3% 10.3% -$418 -$9 $473 -$20 -$5 $14

Mazda -18.3% -10.1% -1.2% -$574 -$381 -$170 -$33 -$23 -$12

Mercedes -12.7% -10.0% -7.2% $21 $112 $207 -$8 -$5 -$2

Volvo -13.4% -9.0% -4.4% -$152 -$29 $101 -$14 -$9 -$3

www.hldi.org

Lane Departure Warning

www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org

Collision Losses for Lane Departure Warning

With Feature vs. Without

Claim

Frequency

Claim

Severity

Overall

Losses

Buick

with side view

assist

-1.1% 4.2% 9.7% -$212 -$34 $154 -$10 $6 $24

Mercedes -8.5% 5.6% 22.0% $3 $1,010 $2,199 $1 $99 $222

Volvo

with forward

collision with auto

brake

& driver alert

-13.8% -2.9% 9.3% -$700 -$179 $417 -$62 -$19 $32

www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org

Property Damage Liability Losses

for Lane Departure Warning

With Feature vs. Without

Claim

Frequency

Claim

Severity

Overall

Losses

Buick

with side view

assist

-1.3% 7.2% 16.4% -$138 $46 $247 -$2 $6 $15

Mercedes -14.6% 10.9% 43.9% -$548 $150 $1,057 -$16 $13 $55

Volvo

with forward

collision with auto

brake

& driver alert

-25.1% -10.0% 8.2% -$501 -$83 $415 -$29 -$11 $11

www.hldi.org

Availability of Features

for Automobiles

www.hldi.org

New Vehicle Series With Electronic Stability Control By model year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

standard optional not available

www.hldi.org

Registered Vehicles With Electronic Stability Control By calendar year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

standard optional not available

www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org

Registered Vehicles With Electronic Stability

Control, Actual and Predicted

By calendar year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

predicted

actual

previous predicted

www.hldi.org

2020

2030

2040

2050

forward collisionwarning

rear parkingsensors

lane departurewarning

adaptiveheadlights

blind spotwarning

rearcamera

without mandate

2015 mandate

Calendar Year Features Reach 95 Percent of

Registered Vehicle Fleet With and Without Mandate

www.hldi.org

First public release of

IIHS crash avoidance ratings

September 27, 2013

www.hldi.org

Autobrake Performance Tests 25 km/h

Subaru

Outback with

EyeSight

Mercedes-Benz

E350 with

Distronic Plus

www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org

Testing Benefits of Autobrake

25 mph

12 mph www.hldi.org

761 Broadcasts Attracted 60 Million Viewers

www.hldi.org

Subaru Advertisement

www.hldi.org

Google’s Driverless Car

www.hldi.org

www.hldi.org

Autonomous Vehicles in

California

Bernard C. Soriano, PhD

Deputy Director, California DMV

California at a glance

•Approximately 38 million people

•Over 25 million driver licenses and identification cards

•Over 32 million actively registered vehicles

•Over 73 percent commute to work alone

•Over 172 thousand public road miles

•Over 323 billion vehicle miles travelled per year

•Variety of terrain and weather conditions

California Legislation – Senate Bill 1298

As soon as practicable, but no later than Jan. 1, 2015, DMV must adopt

regulations setting forth requirements for:

• Manufacturers’ testing of autonomous vehicles on public roadways

• Operation of autonomous vehicles on public roadways

• Public workshops and meetings

• Nissan • Volvo • VW Group

• Chrysler • GM • Toyota

• Honda • Google • Bosch

• Autonomous vehicle technology advancing quickly

• Adoption by the public will not be dependent on technology

– Human factors (HMI)

• Potential traffic safety improvements are immense

– Over 30,000 traffic fatalities per year

– Almost all (95 percent) of traffic fatalities were the result of human error

– In over 35 percent of traffic fatalities, the brakes were not applied

• Government and industry need to work collaboratively

Definition of Autonomous

NHTSA defines 4 levels of autonomous vehicles

• Level 0 – No automation

• Level 1 – Function specific automation

• Level 2 – Combined function automation

• Level 3 – Limited self-driving automation

• Level 4 – Full self-driving automation

Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) has similar definitions, although 5 levels

Examples

Examples, continued

• Philosophical differences

• Driver is essential to vehicle operations

• Design systems to maintain situational awareness

• Adequate notification time

• Human is the backup system

• Vehicle operations fully autonomous

• No need for steering or braking controls

• Redundancy and fail-safe built into system

• Technological differences

– Self-contained processing

– Map dependency and cloud computing

– Vehicle to vehicle communication (v2v)

• NHTSA decision on DSRC capability

– Vehicle to infrastructure communication (v2i)

• Other forms of autonomous vehicles

• Platooning • Low speed shuttles

• NHTSA Level 2 autonomous vehicles available now now _

– 2014 Mercedes S class

– 2014 BMW i3, 5-Series

– 2014 Cadillac XTS

• NHTSA Level 3 autonomous vehicles being tested now

– Private test tracks

– Human reaction testing

– Situational awareness

• No industry agreement on NHTSA Level 4 timetable

– Dependence on DSRC?

– Self-parking

• Volvo

No fatalities in a Volvo vehicle by the year 2020

– Collision avoidance systems

– Commercial trucking industry

– Road train or platooning

– Gothenburg, Sweden

• Nissan

• Autonomous car will be available for sale before 2020

• Price will be $1,000 - $2,000 above current prices

• Audi A-7 demo at the 2013 CES

• Volvo

No fatalities in a Volvo vehicle by the year 2020

– Collision avoidance systems

– Commercial trucking industry

– Road train or platooning

– Gothenburg, Sweden

• Nissan

• Autonomous car will be available for sale before 2020

• Price will be $1,000 - $2,000 above current prices

• Audi A-7 demo at the 2013 CES

• Definition • Usage

• Safety • Vehicle Code

• Liability • Visibility

• Privacy • Standardization

• Security • Insurance

• Licensing • Technical constraints

• Reliability • Messaging

• Infrastructure • Public perception

Challenges

Statewide Steering Committee

– California State Transportation Agency

– California Department of Insurance

– California Highway Patrol

– California Office of Traffic Safety

– California Department of Transportation

– California Department of Motor Vehicles

– National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

Regulatory Package 1: Manufacturers’ Testing

• Two pre-notice workshops

• 45-day public comment period

• Formal public hearing

• 15-day public comment period

• Regulations approved and adopted in May 2014

• Effective on September 16, 2014

Testing Regulations Summary

– $5 million in insurance, bond, or self-insurance

– Test drivers: no DUI, not an at-fault driver, and no more than 1

point

– Successful completion of test driver training program

– Employee, contractor, or designee

– Seated in driver seat during testing

– Report any accident within 10 days

– Report unanticipated disengagement of autonomous technology

– Testing permit valid for one year

– Vehicles excluded from testing:

• Commercial vehicles

• > 10,000 lbs GVW

• Motorcycles

Regulatory Package 2: Operation on California Public Roadways

•Contract with UC Berkeley for recommendations

•March 11 pre-notice workshop

•Available for 45-day public comment period shortly

•Formal public hearing

•Assignment of violations

•Definition of operator

•Operational and deployment restrictions

•Operator license requirements

•Other feasible regulations

•Target date of December 2014

– Expected to be available for public comment in July

– Public hearing after 45 days

– Specify whether vehicle is capable of operating without a driver

inside

– Disclose the designed areas of operation

– Submission of data from testing program

– Functional safety

– Sensor data recorded 30 sec prior to collision

– Disclosure of recorded data not necessary for safe operation of

vehicle

– $5 million in bond, or self-insurance

– NHTSA Level 4 vehicles issued distinct special license plate

– No special driver license requirement

Operational Regulations Summary (DRAFT)

Outreach Efforts

•Meetings with manufacturers, suppliers, and industry

•Presentations to government and interested parties

•Social media

– LinkedIn group

– Reddit discussion

– Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube

•DMV website and blog

•Traditional media

•Industry meetings

•Working groups across jurisdictions

Questions

[email protected]

(916) 657-7626

@Bernard45

Issues Raised by

Autonomous Cars

Patrick B. Woods, FCAS, MAAA Assistant Vice President & Actuary, Personal

Automobile Actuarial

ISO Insurance Programs and Analytic Services

• Cost of technology and infrastructure

• Interaction with existing vehicles on road

• Legal environment for autonomous cars and licensing

• Who owns data

• Safety and Security

Environmental Issues

•What is being insured?

•Rating/Underwriting

•Claims Settlement

•Safety

Insurance Issues

• Liability based on your actions

• How you manage conditions

• How attentive you are

• How you maintain your vehicle

• Proximate cause of accidents

• Other drivers actions

Liability Insurance Today

• Driver, driver characteristics and attributes

• Driving record —accidents and violations/UBI

• Where does driver drive/garage car

• What kind of vehicle

Rating/Underwriting the Risk Today

• Are AV’s safe—how do we know?

• Liability—driver, manufacturer, software provider?

• Given a liability scenario--rate the policy

• Hacking risk/ software updates

• Cost of technology/ the driving environment

New Problems and Issues

• How do you test the vehicle to be sure it is safe?

• Number of accident free miles

• Testing the software

Are These Things Safe?

• Tort or No-fault

• Product liability system

• Rules of product liability are exacting

• Alternative liability systems

• Vaccine liability treatment

The Liability Issue—Who Pays?

• Who or what is being insured

• Full time/part time autonomous system

• How good is the software/hardware

• The driver and his driving experience

• The vehicle itself

Rating the Risk

• Hacking/software updates

• Cost of technology

• Who owns data

• Mixture of vehicle on the road

• Anticipated frequency

Other Issues

For additional information contact

Patrick B. Woods

Insurance Services Office

(201) 469-2679

[email protected]

Issues Raised by Autonomous Vehicles

Open Forum