Tokyo Roadshow 30 June – 1 July 2009 Roadshow 30 June – 1 July 2009 Ian Smith CEO & MD. 2...
Transcript of Tokyo Roadshow 30 June – 1 July 2009 Roadshow 30 June – 1 July 2009 Ian Smith CEO & MD. 2...
Tokyo Roadshow 30 June – 1 July 2009
Ian Smith CEO & MD
2
Disclaimer
Forward Looking Statements
These materials include forward looking statements. Forward looking statements inherently involve subjective judgement and analysis and are
subject to significant uncertainties, risks and contingencies, many of which are outside of the control of, and may be unknown to, the company.
Actual results and developments may vary materially from those expressed in these materials. The types of uncertainties which are relevant to
the company may include, but are not limited to, commodity prices, political uncertainty, changes to the regulatory framework which applies to
the business of the company and general economic conditions. Given these uncertainties, readers are cautioned not to place undue
reliance on
such forward looking statements.
Forward looking statements in these materials speak only at the date of issue. Subject to any continuing obligations under applicable law or any
relevant stock exchange listing rules, the company does not in providing this information undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any
of the forward looking statements or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.
Competent Persons StatementThe information in this report that relates to Exploration Results is based on information compiled by C. Moorhead, EGM Minerals
for Newcrest
Mining Limited who is a Member of The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, and a full-time employee of Newcrest Mining Limited. Mr
Moorhead has sufficient experience which is relevant to the styles of mineralisation and types of deposits under consideration and to the activity
which he is undertaking to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2004 Edition of the ‘Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration
Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves. Mr Moorhead consents to the inclusion in the report of the matters based on this information in
the form and context in which it appears.
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Gold as a Store of Value
Since free float in 1973, gold has consistently beaten inflation
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Jun-73 Jun-76 Jun-79 Jun-82 Jun-85 Jun-88 Jun-91 Jun-94 Jun-97 Jun-00 Jun-03 Jun-06 Jun-09
US CPI Gold USD Source: Bloomberg 10 Jun 09 & US Dept of Labor
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Gold Equities Outperform
Global gold equities have outperformed global property, US bonds and global equities over the long term
Source: Bloomberg 10 Jun 09
Global Returns (%)
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09
SPX/TSX Global Gold Index S&P/Citigroup World Property Index Global Bonds - Lehman US Aggregate Index S&P Global 1200
5
Current Gold Price Environment
Massive increase in demand for Gold ETFs; 40% increase in calendar year 2009 to over 40Mozs
Comex in strong net long position
Low jewellery demand offset by unprecedented demand for coins & bars
Supply side constraints –
declining global production–
fewer major discoveries
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Newcrest
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Newcrest Overview
Top tier gold producer
Top 20 Australian Stock Exchange listed company
Low gearing and strong balance sheet
Multiple growth options
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Secure Debt Position and Low GearingGearing level approximately 1%Cash Balance at 31 May 2009 was over US$300MUS$969 million of undrawn debt facilities (maturing throughout 2010)
US$350 million US Private Placement Maturity Profile
0
50
100
150
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
120105
100
25
Maturity Date Calendar Year
US$
M
9
First Cost Quartile Producer
Cumulative Production %
Cas
h C
ost U
S$ p
er o
unce
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Newcrest Average – 9 Months to March 2009 US$347/oz
2008 World Average US$467/oz
Source:GFMS
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Capital Returns
Source: Company ReportsROCE = EBIT/Shareholder Equity + net debt
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)2008 Calendar Year
20%
17%
14%
8% 8% 7%6%
5%3%
New
cres
t
Gol
dFie
lds
New
mon
t
Ang
logo
ld
Lihi
r
Bar
rick
Yam
ana
Kin
ross
Gol
dcor
p
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Cash Returns
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)2008 Calendar Year
Source: Company ReportsROIC is calculated as EBITDA divided by the sum of Long Term Debt and Total Shareholder Equity
25%
21% 21%
12% 11%9% 9%
7%
New
cres
t
Gol
dFie
lds
New
mon
t
Bar
rick
Lihi
r
Kin
ross
Yam
ana
Gol
dcor
p
12
Newcrest Operations
Telfer Processing Facility
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Newcrest Operations & Projects
Telfer(100%)
Gosowong(82.5%)
Hidden Valley & Wafi/Golpu(50%)
Cracow(70%)
Cadia Valley(100%)
Namosi (65%)
Australia
Indonesia
Fiji
PNG
Mine Sites3 X Surface Mines4 X Underground Mines4 X Major Advanced Exploration Targets
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Gosowong
Increased gold production targeting 450,000oz per annumThroughput rates of 65tph from mid 2010Recovery percentages above 95% with commissioning of VertimillCapital spend around US$200M to completion
K1 (existing) K2 & K Link (expansion)
IRR > 50%(on current
reserves)
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Ridgeway Deeps Block Cave
Cadia Hill
Cadia East Panel Cave
Resource of 83 million gold equivalent ounces (Approximation calculated at Gold: US$600 per ounce; Copper: US$1.70 per pound)
Ridgeway Sublevel Cave
Cadia Valley
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Cadia Valley - Ridgeway Deeps
Project on schedule and budget–
All capital committed–
On track for first production mid - 2009
Cave Development–
Undercutting on schedule–
Cave preconditioning program completed ahead of schedule
–
Cave is initiating as expected
Construction of Underground Conveyor
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Lift 0
Lift 1
Lift 2
Conveyor Decline Main Decline
Orebody Open
Orebody Open
Orebody Open
Orebody Open
1,200m
Cadia Hill Pit
Cadia Valley - Cadia East Feasibility
Development of Australia’s largest underground mine
1. Newcrest resource & reserve estimates as at 30 June 2008
Gold1
Mineral Resource 28.0MozOre Reserve 15.8Moz
Copper1
Mineral Resource 5.57MtOre Reserve 2.68Mt
Capital expenditure < A$2 Billion
Mine life of 30+ years
Future Cadia Valley Production
–
over 700koz gold from FY13
–
over 100kt copper from FY14
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Telfer
Schematic Long SectionTelfer Regional
Looking West
0 3 km
O’Callaghan’s
15 km10 kmTelfer Operations
CampDome
Shaft
WestDome
Pit
MainDome
Pit
TelferDeeps
West DomeDeeps
Extensionpotential
VerticalStockworkCorridor
Exploration target 40 -
60 Mt@ > 0.25% WO, + Cu Pb Zn MoConfirmed by drilling to date
3
Remaining 50% of Mag target to be drilled
Exploration target is a repeat of theMain Dome Telfer Deeps system
Drilling ongoing to confirm this target
Shaft is located between MD & WD(i.e. similar distance)
Oxide anomaly near surface> 0.5% Cu coincides with large Mag target
Expect to start drilling a large (~100Mt)primary sulphide Cu target in Q4
Exploration target 18-22 Mt@ > 1 g/t Au & > 0.3% Cuconfirmed by drilling to date
Grades appear to be increasing at depth(~1.8 g/t Au / 0.7% Cu)Drilling planned in Q4 to test open potential
O’Callaghan’s
Vertical Stockwork Corridor (VSC) West Dome Deeps
Camp Dome
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Improvement at Telfer Since January 2008
Significant recovery improvement (grade profile flat)
Underground hoisting increased 20%
Mill utilisation improved 10%
Copper Recovery January 2008 to May 2009
70
75
80
85
90
95
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Months
Cu
Rec
over
y%
Gold Recovery January 2008 to May 2009
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Months
Gol
d R
ecov
ery%
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Morobe Mining Joint Venture (PNG)
Porphyry Belt
Mining Locations
New Britain
LaeAureFLY PLATFORM Trough
Lihir
Port Moresby
Madang
Lae
Grasberg
LihirPorgera
OK Tedi
PNG JV Projects
50% equity interest
Exceptional mineral province comprising:
Hidden Valley Project
Wafi-Golpu Project
Morobe coast exploration
Hidden Valley Project as at May 2009
Construction is 86% complete
98% of project capital is committed
On schedule for mill commissioning in mid - 2009
Indonesia PNG
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Hidden Valley Area
Awei Tuwe
Hidden Hidden Valley Pit
Big Wau
Mill Site
Pihema
Tais Creek
Salemba
Upper BuloloApu
Bulldog
Nosave Puruwang
0 1000Metres
HamataHamata Pit
YafoYafo
Drilling recommenced to convert exploration targets into additional Resource and Reserve
–
Initial drilling at Yafo Prospect intersected 5m @11.94 g/t Au including 1m @ 42.10g/t Au in hole YFDH001
Confident of mine and mill expansion from initial 250koz pa to:
–
over 300koz pa during 2010–
over 400koz pa during 2012
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Golpu Pre-Concept
Golpu Mineral Resource (1) of 163.1Mt @ 0.57g/t and 1.08% for 3.0Moz Au and 1.76Mt Cu
Conceptual Mining Sequence
Stage 1 Underground: 40Mt @ 0.9g/t Au and 1.1% CuOpen Pit: 30Mt @ 0.7g/t Au and 0.4% Cu
Stage 2 Underground: 40Mt @ 0.6g/t Au and 1.0% Cu
Golpu Stage 1 underground contains similar tonnes and gold grade with double the copper grade of Ridgeway Deeps. This is before the added tonnes of Stage 1 Open Pit and Stage 2 Underground.
Mining designs associated with the nearby 6Moz WafiMineral Resource plus additional regional exploration targets are still maturing.
(1) Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited. JORC compliant estimate as at 30 June 2008. For details refer Harmony website.
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Sustainable Growth
Gosowong - Rehabilitation
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Exploration Success Exceeds Production Depletion
Reserves Growth : Production RatioExcluding Acquisitions (2000 – 2008)
Source: Company Reports
-1.3 -0.8 -0.3 0.2 0.30.7
1.0
3.4
AngloGold Goldfields
Newmont Barrick Harmony Goldcorp Kinross Newcrest
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Low Cost Successful Explorer
Source: Metals Economics Group, Halifax, Nova Scotia, 2009Note: Preliminary data
Major Gold Producer Discoveries 1997 - 2008
0
5
10
15
20
25
Newcrest Average of successful explorers* Average of all major gold producers*0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Attributable ounces discovered (million oz) Discovery Cost (US$/oz)
Million oz US$/oz
21.5Moz
$12.72/oz
15.9Moz
4.0Moz
$17.22/oz
$31.88/oz
* Excluding Newcrest
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Project Portfolio Doubled
+= Pre 2008 = Now
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Newcrest Reserves
Newcrest Resource & Reserve estimates as at 30 June 2008
Operations, 40%
Projects, 60%
Operations, 46%
Projects, 54%
Gold Mineral Resources 70.6 Moz Gold Ore Reserves 40.0 Moz
Copper Mineral Resources 9.18Mt Copper Ore Reserves 4.15Mt
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Gold production to increase 40% over 5 years
1.63-1.70Moz
2.30Moz
FY2009 FY2014
15 %
5 %
5 %
5 %
5 %
Hidden ValleyGosowong
Hidden ValleyCVO
Ridgeway Deeps Cadia East
Hidden ValleyCadia East
TelferCadia East
5 year Copper production to increase 30% from FY2009. Total copper to exceed 100,000t pa from FY2013.
Excludes future production from the following internal opportunities :
Wafi/Golpu, O’Callaghans, Namosi, Camp Dome, Gosowong 2 Vertical Stockwork Corridor, West Dome Deeps, Marsden.
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Market Consensus Below Newcrest Estimates
Sell side Consensus Newcrest 5 year plan
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014
2.30Moz
2.07Moz
1.63 – 1.70Moz
MozGold Production
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Cash Cost per ounce down 30%R
elat
ive
$/oz
B
ase
Year
FY2
009
US$ @AUD:USD 0.80
US$ @ AUD:USD 0.65
A$ (Cu Price: FY10 =A$2.50/lb; FY11 – FY14 = A$3.00/lb)
Increased Au prod. with improved costs offset by slight drop in Cu
The additional effect of Cadia East commencing
40
60
80
100
120
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014
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Circle diameter represents relative market capitalisationCash Margin equals US$900/oz less calendar 2008 cash costs Reserve Life equals current gold Ore Reserves / calendar 2008 gold production
Newcrest
Kinross
Goldcorp
Lihir
Gold Fields
Barrick
NewmontAnglogold
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
13 18 23 28
Reserve Life (Years)
Cas
h M
argi
n U
S$/o
z
Primed for Value Growth
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Appendices
Hidden Valley – Sag Mill & Grinding Area
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Cadia Valley - Feasibility Production Profiles
FY 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Ridgeway
Ridgeway Deeps Ridgeway Deeps 2
Cadia EastCadia Hill
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
30.0
32.0
34.0
Ore
Mill
ed (M
t)
Production Profile 2
Production Profile 1
Gold Production Koz +500 +575 +650Copper Production kt +75+55 +90
+750+105
Gold Production Koz +500 +575Copper Production kt +55
+650 +700 +700 to +750+75 +100 +125 +135
Profile 1
Profile 2
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5 Moz discovered to date
10 drill rigs currently in operation from both surface and underground
1. Kencana (3.6Mozs to date) –
targeting extensions to repetitions ofknown bonanza shoots
2. Gosowong Toguraci (1.4Mozs to date) –
testing known fertile structures for new bonanza shoots
3. Regional –
locating new fertile structures
K2; 1.4Moz
K1; 1.8Moz
K-Link; 0.3 Moz
K1 NORTH
K1 DEEPS
K2 SOUTHK2 DEEPS
K2 NORTH
Gosowong – A World Class Epithermal Goldfield
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Telfer - Vertical Stockwork Corridor
Drilling has confirmed an exploration target of18-22Mt at >1 g/t Au, 0.39% Cu (open at depth)
200mOpen at depth
Telfer DeepsMining Shape
Drilling interceptsLooking West
North
0.8
1.8
Average resource grade
VerticalStockworkCorridorResourceshapes
Au g/t Cu %
0.27
0.71
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Telfer - Tungsten Resources
Deposit Country Deposit Size Ore Tonnes
Mt
Grade WO3
%
% of World’s
Resources
1.
Shizhuyuan China 175 0.40 27
2.
Cantung Canada 48 1.01 15
3.
Xingluokeng China 116 0.25 11
4.
Yaogangxian China 22 1.20 8
Panasquiria Portugal 9.5 0.24 1
O’Callaghans Australia 40 -
60 0.25 4
1. China has 60% of world’s Tungsten resources2. Canada has 15% of world’s Tungsten resources3. O’Callaghans potential still growing (half drilled)
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PNG Joint Venture
US$532M for a 50% interest in Harmony’s PNG assets:
–
3,400 + square kilometres–
Hidden Valley operation–
Wafi-Golpu projects –
Morobe coast exploration
Exceptional mineral provinceCompetitive priceLeverages regional capability
Acquisition Cost (US$/oz)
22
118
38
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
PNG Equity Cost PNG PostDevelopment
Industry average last18 months
Gol
d Eq
uiva
lent
s
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Exploration - Morobe Mining JV – Wafi-Golpu
Nambonga North Nambonga North
Golpu Resource(1)
163Mt @ 0.57g/t Au 1.08% Cu3.0Moz Au, 1.76Mt CuOpen at Depth
Golpu Resource(1)
163Mt @ 0.57g/t Au 1.08% Cu3.0Moz Au, 1.76Mt CuOpen at Depth
1 kmGhavembu
Kesiago
Hesson Ck
Zenapu Hekeng
Resources
Exploration Targets
Key
Wafi Resource(1)
103Mt @ 1.88g/t Au6.2Moz Au
Wafi Resource(1)
103Mt @ 1.88g/t Au6.2Moz Au
Kesiago Prospect
4km from Wafi-Golpu resource
High potential intercept-
KDH001 389.4m @ 0.24 g/t
Au -
Discovery of new porphyrymineralisation
Highly prospective province containing over 10Moz gold
(1) Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited. JORC compliant estimate as at 30 June 2008. For details refer Harmony website.
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Viti Levu
Namosi
Waivaka
Waisoi EastWaisoi WestWaisoi
0 2.5 5
kilometres? ?
MINERALISATIONGRADE HIGHER
Proposed Pit
366m @ 0.65% Cu, 0.29g/t Au (192-558m)(0.3% Cu cutoff)
Incl. 40m @ 1.34% Cu, 0.64g/t Au (342-382m)
Waisoi (East + West) drilling has confirmedan exploration target of 1,250 – 1,400Mt
containing ~ 6Moz Au & 5.6Mt Cu
40
Exploration - Cracow
200m
CBK2407.95m (5.6m) @ 5.7g/t Au
CBK22642.1m (19.75m) @ 6 g/t AuIncl. 12.35m (5.8m) @ 12 g/t AuIncl. 0.7m (0.35m) @ 19 g/t Au
CBK25212.95m (9.65m) @ 7.09 g/t AuIncl. 3.05m (2.04m) @ 21.76 g/t Au
New KilkennyOre Shoot Potential
Kilkenny Longsection
>50 m.g/t Au20-50 m.g/t Au1-20 m.g/t Au
Lode Intersection
m.g/t = g/t Au x true width (m)
NSAExisting Resources
CBK2595.5m (2.91m) @ 3.65 g/t Au
CBK259W112.8m (6.04m) @ 14.18 g/t AuIncl. 2.0m (0.94m)@ 79.43 g/t Au
Cracow