D. Todd Griffith, Ph.D.Wind and Water Power Technologies

Sandia National Laboratories

Fifth Sandia Wind Plant Reliability WorkshopAugust 13, 2013

dgriffi@sandia.gov

Sandia Technical Report: SAND2013-6915C

Continued increase in installed wind capacity both world wide and in the U.S.

China – largest cumulative capacity

U.S. second in cumulative

~285 GW Installed Worldwide - Total (up from 240 GW)

~60 GW Installed in U.S. – Total (up from 47 GW)

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1983 1990 1995 2000 2006 2012

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ulat

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Installed Wind Power in the World- Annual and Cumulative -

Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant - March 2013

Source: BTM Consult – A Part of Navigant – March 2013

Turbine Prices

Source: DOE Wind Technologies Market Report

Project Prices

2012: $950-$1300/kW2009: $1500/kW2000-2002: $700/kW

2012: $1940/kW2009&2010: ~$2200/kW2004: ~$1250/kW

U.S. ‐ DOE has proposed the 20% by 2030 scenario• 2013 State of the Union:  double renewables by 2020• U.S. DOE recently announced new Vision for wind (2020, 2030, 2050)

Europe – EU has proposed a 20% renewables by 2020 plan

Record installations of nearly 45 GW in 2012 Economic value of global market from $76B (2012) to $113B (2017)

• US Wind Energy:  $25B• US Aerospace:  $218B   (Civil Aircraft $61B) **

UK – significant offshore wind installations continue• World leader in offshore wind with 2.8 GW installed end of 2012 (56% total world offshore capacity) 

** 2012 Year-end Review and Forecast, Aerospace Industries Association

024681012141618

Annual GW Installed

*Installations 2007: 5,253 MW

*Installations 2008: 8,362 MW

DOE 20% by 2030 Scenario:  Installed Capacity – Predicted and Actual

Capacity additions in 20% Scenario

Source*: AWEA, 2012

*Installations 2009: 10,005 MW

*Installations 2010: 5,216 MW2011: 6,820 MW2012: 13,131 MW

Size 1.5-5.0+ MW Towers: 65-100+ meters Blades: 34-80+ meters Weight: 150-500+ tons

Costs (traditional)• System ~ $3/lb• Blades ~ $6/lb

Wind Industry Trends & Challenges

•High-end Military ~ $1000/lb•Aerospace Industry ~ $100/lb

Growth of average individual turbine capacity: 1.67 to 1.84 MW Mainstream of installed turbines, 1.5‐2.5 MW (83%) with ~13% 2.5 MW and above in 2012

• US average rating is 1.93 MW  (down from 1.97 MW)• However, growth in hub height and rotor diameter (low wind speed siting)

Source*: AWEA, 2012

Current Turbine Technology

And, expanded product offerings

Continued rotor growth for offshore (5 MW and

above)

Additional offerings for land-based

machines 2-3 MW: hub

height and rotor size options

Continued significant installations in the UK in recent yearsMany offshore projects in pipeline for 2013/2014 (~4.8 GW) particularly in Germany (~2.5 GW), UK (~1.5 GW)2.5% of 2012 installations were offshore (slight drop)Forecasting range from 6‐18% annually offshore for next five years (2013‐2017)

Until recent years, two prime suppliers of offshore turbines (Siemens, Vestas) – new entrants emerging

Offshore is test bed for large turbine technology• Virtually all are fixed bottom (monopile, etc)

New large machines in development for offshore• 6 MW Alstom (150‐meter diameter)• 6 MW Siemens (120‐meter diameter)• 7 MW Vestas (164‐meter diameter)• 7 MW Mitsubishi (165‐meter diameter)• 4.5 MW Gamesa (134‐meter diameter)

Land-based Project Shallow Water Offshore Project

Musial, W. and Ram, B. Large-Scale Offshore Wind Power in

the United States.

NREL/TP-500-40745. 2010.

Direct drive concept continues in its application• Direct drive account for 19.5% of world’s supply of wind power capacity in 2012 (up from 14% in 2009)

• Simpler mechanism with no gear box maintenance

Solving issues, improving codes and standards, and developing innovations all lead to lower COE:

• lower capital costs, • lower O&M, or • increased energy capture.

RadarNoise TransportationWind Plant Performance; Wake Losses Field Service & Repair Lightning Reliability of blade design & manufacturing

Acoustic Research

Effects of Turbines on

Radar

Innovations in research communities – labs, universities, industry

• Passive load control• New airfoils• Large blade development• Active load and performance control• Vertical Axis Wind Turbine (VAWT designs)• New materials characterizations• Sensor development for SHM and active load control• Increased tip speeds• Coatings for radar, lightning

Labs – addressing various aspects and elements of wind system reliability through R&D• Components Reliability

Gearbox Reliability Collaborative (GRC) Blade Reliability Collaborative (BRC)

• Condition monitoring; Structural Health and Prognostics Management

• Wind Energy Systems Analysis and Engineering• Wind Farm Performance and Testing

Problem:  Blade reliability issues related to manufacturing, transportation, installation, and operation can have large effects on COE as blade failures can cause extensive down time and lead to expensive repairs.

Goal:  Improve the reliability of blades delivered to the field so that remediation work before operation can be eliminated and the service lifetimes can achieve the 20 year targets that are expected by wind plant operators and financiers.

Manufacturing Operation

TestingDesign

Two blades built based on BSDS blade design• Glass and carbon spar versions

• Defects manufactured:  Out‐of‐plane and in‐plane waves, porosity, delaminations, and disbonds

Sandia has focused on a sealed water box that:• Adjusts to slight curvature surfaces• Eliminates water flow to open box• Maximizes signal strength• Accommodates necessary standoffs for signal

clarity• Easily saves scanned images for reference using the

unidirectional Mouse Encoder

4 Ply Pillow Inserts

FBH

FHB’s Pillow Inserts

BRC: Probe Housing Development for Factory Deployment

CREW: Continuous Reliability Enhancement for Wind

21

Goal: Create a national reliability database of wind plant operatingdata to enable reliability analysis

Sandia  partners with Strategic Power Systems (SPS), whose ORAPWind® software collects real‐time data from wind plant partners

Benchmark reliability performanceTrack operating performance

Method:

SHPM: Structural Health and Prognostics Management

Cost-effectively simulating realistic damaged states and evaluating their effects

Repa

ir Co

st

Defect Size

Blade Removal

Blade Replacement

Up‐Tower Repair

Ground Repair

No Repair(not to scale)

Recognizing the dependence of repair costs on extent of damage and ease of accessibility:

Opportunity to plan for cheaper repairs, optimize O&M processes

SHPM: Structural Health and Prognostics Management (cont’d)

Smart loads management has potential to reduce cost of energy in two ways: reduce O&M costs and increase energy capture

Shutdown

Online Reports

Annual Global Wind Power Development

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Annual Global Wind Power Development

Offshore (Prediction) Prediction Offshore (Forecast)Forecast Existing capacity

Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant - March 2013