Friday

Dec. 9, 2016

  Dec. 9, 2016

 

Trump Advisers Asks How to Keep Nuclear Power AliveBy Mark Chediak and Catherine Traywick, Bloomberg NewsPresident-elect ’s advisers are looking at ways in which the U.S. Donald Trumpgovernment could help nuclear power generators being forced out of the electricity market by cheaper natural gas and renewable resources.

In a document obtained by Bloomberg, Trump’s transition team asked the Energy Department how it can help keep nuclear reactors “operating as part of the nation’s infrastructure” and what it could do to prevent the shutdown of plants. Advisers also asked the agency whether there were any statutory restrictions in resuming work on Yucca Mountain, a proposed federal depository for nuclear waste in Nevada that was abandoned by the Obama administration.

The list of questions to the Energy Department offers one of the clearest indications yet of Trump’s potential plans for aiding America’s battered nuclear power generators. Five of the country’s nuclear plants have closed in the past five years, based on Energy Department data, and more are set to shut as cheaper supplies from gas-fired plants, wind and solar squeeze their profits.

Media representatives for the Trump transition and Energy Department didn’t immediately respond to calls and e-mails seeking comment. Read more on the .web

KEY INDICATORS

TYPE TOTAL GWH TOTAL CHG

COAL              2,605  +188

GAS              1,438  +194

HYDRO                  342  +9

NUCLEAR              1,494  +3

OIL                    12  0

WIND                    74  +7Source: Genscape as of 7 a.m. ET

Generation by fuel type for last 24 hours.

"To make sure existing nuclear stays open, you need Congress to pony up subsidies and we think that’s an uphill battle.”

— Rob Barnett, an analyst for Bloomberg

Intelligence

On the Record

Generation Monitor

125Active U.S gas rigs as of today, up six from a week ago, according to data from Hughes.Baker

MARKET CALL. America’s of glut natural gas that’s lasted for over a year may disappear before January.

In , gas and wind NEWS. Texaspower are proving cheaper than coal.

ANALYSIS. A giving measure permitting clarity to U.S. liquefied natural gas exporters is unlikely to become law until at least 2017.

SURVEY. Gas rally further as may Arctic air to wipe out supply glut.

PRICES. Daily prices, spot powerand forward markets.gas

Inside

Today's News

U.S. Nuclear Waste Continues to Pile Up

Efforts to revive the long-stalled Yucca nuclear waste repository won't play a significant role in averting planned retirements of older nuclear power plants. Economic factors — primarily low natural gas prices — have led to wave of announced nuclear power plant closures. Some states and utilities won't consider new nuclear construction until there is a long-term waste storage plan.

— Rob Barnett and Kit Konolige, Bloomberg Intelligence Analysts

  Power & Gas 2  Dec. 9, 2016

 

Today's News

 

GasA rally in natural gas prices was extended on speculation that a blast of arctic air

descending across the U.S. as exports of the fuel expand could wipe away a supply glut. Gas rose for a second day to a two-year high amid forecasts showing a wave of polar air sweeping across much of the northern half of the U.S. through late December, driving demand for the heating fuel, according to in MDA Weather ServicesGaithersburg, Maryland. The low in Chicago Dec. 14 may be 0 degrees Fahrenheit, 23 below average, data from . show. Gas futures for January delivery AccuWeather Incrose 5.1 cents to settle at $3.746/MMBtu on Nymex.

—  Jonathan N. Crawford, Bloomberg News

Cheniere Energy ended talks to buy the 20 percent of Cheniere Energy Partners it doesn’t already own in a proposed stock swap that was worth LP Holdings LLC

about $1 billion when first announced in September. Cheniere originally offered 0.5049 Cheniere shares for each outstanding share of the holding company that owns 56 percent of the unit that operates a gas export terminal. After more than six weeks of negotiations and despite raising the offer to an exchange ratio of 0.54, Cheniere said “no acceptable definitive agreement can be reached” at this time, according to a statement on Friday. Cheniere Chief Executive Officer , who took the job in Jack FuscoMay, has been seeking to simplify the company’s operations.

—  Naureen S. Malik, Bloomberg News

PowerNew York officials and clean-energy companies may have to wait a bit longer to bid

for a chance to develop an offshore wind farm south of Long Island after a group of commercial fishermen, industry groups and seaport communities sued to halt a leasing-rights auction. The Fisheries Survival Fund and other groups sued in federal court in Washington Thursday to block the government’s plan to auction a 79,350-acre site in the Atlantic Ocean for construction of as many as 194 wind turbines. Opponents of the project contend that installing turbines would disrupt historical squid and scallop fishing grounds, and put whales and other endangered species at risk. The suit is a new barrier for New York, which is vying for the lease and has said generating electricity at sea is key to meeting the state’s clean-energy goals.

—  Jef Feeley and Joe Ryan, Bloomberg News

The House’s water infrastructure bill passed yesterday effectively preempts the ’s EPAcoal ash rule, giving states the authority to regulate the residue coal-fired power plants on their own. So why didn’t we hear much of a fight on it from Democrats? The measure was less controversial than previous standalone bills that moved through both chambers and won the support of the top Democrat on the Environment and Public Works Committee, Senator . “I think the way we’ve done it is very protective, Barbara Boxerand the environmental groups don’t object to it,” she said earlier this year, according to Bloomberg BNA’s Brian Dabbs. Still, not everybody is on board. "These proposed coal ash provisions are seriously concerning to us,” Sierra Club’s legislative director,

, said in a statement.Melinda Pierce

—  Mark Drajem and Ari Natter, Bloomberg News

AnalysisA measure giving permitting clarity to U.S. liquefied natural gas exporters is unlikely to

become law until at least 2017. The measure would cap how long the federal government can take to review LNG export applications, but it wouldn't significantly cut overall permitting time for developers. Speeding LNG exports has bipartisan support, unlike other aspects of the two existing energy bills, where the measure resides. Republicans may introduce new LNG legislation in 2017.

— Cheryl Wilson and Vincent G. Piazza, Bloomberg Intelligence Analysts

In Texas, which uses more coal than any other U.S. state, researchers have found that cleaner-burning natural gas and wind are actually the cheapest sources of power.

The University of Texas at Austin’s Energy Institute issued a study Thursday that identified gas-fired power plants and wind as the cheapest ways of generating power across most of Texas. It also found gas to be the lowest-cost option in at least one-third of counties in the U.S., with wind being the cheapest in most other parts.

The report offers a rare look at how different sources of power stack up against each other when accounting for both the financial and environmental costs of generating electricity. Based on this “full” cost of power, the institute said, coal is the cheapest option only in places far from gas pipelines, having little wind to push turbines and where the price of pollution isn’t high.

The institute said its goal was to quantify the full cost of power “from the power plant to the wall socket” and to deliver findings that could inform public policy discussions.

The report’s authors noted that the analysis is “sensitive” to natural gas and carbon prices, both of which are bound for change. President-elect

has pledged to revive Donald Trump America’s coal industry and repeal environmental regulations that discouraged use of the power-plant fuel in favor of renewable energy resources.

Natural gas futures have meanwhile gained 59 percent this year.

According to the report, the institute receives financial support from industrial, governmental and nonprofit groups. It listed Austin Energy, Sharyland Utilities,

and the Chevron Corp. Environmental Defense Fund among contributors to the study.

— Ryan Collins, Bloomberg News

In Heart of Coal Demand, Gas, Wind Prove Cheaper

Insight: Survey

  Power & Gas 3  Dec. 9, 2016

Major Increases

POWER PLANT TYPE REGIONLOCAL TIME

HOUR ENDINGHR ENDING OUTPUT MW

CHG SAME TIME YESTERDAY

AVG MW LAST 30 DAYS AT SAME HR

MIN MW LAST 30 DAYS AT SAME HR

MAX MW LAST 30 DAYS AT SAME HR

Gibson Coal RFC 6:00 AM      2,748  +1,456      1,108          474       2,748 

Monticello-SherburneNuclear/Coal

MRO 6:00 AM      3,010  +1,450      1,828       1,478       3,010 

Martin Lake Coal ERCOT 5:00 AM      2,332  +1,252      1,234          768       2,348 

Hanging Rock Gas RFC 6:00 AM         977  +975         935               2       1,239 

Fayette Power Prj Coal ERCOT 5:00 AM      1,482  +961         861          371       1,579 Source: Bloomberg, Genscape Note: as of 7 a.m. ET NH GSP <GO>

Major Decreases

POWER PLANT TYPE REGIONLOCAL TIME

HOUR ENDINGHR ENDING OUTPUT MW

CHG SAME TIME

YESTERDAY

AVG MW LAST 30 DAYS AT SAME HR

MIN MW LAST 30 DAYS AT SAME HR

MAX MW LAST 30 DAYS AT SAME HR

BPA WindWind/Wind

WECC 3:00 AM           86  -1,180      1,253               2       4,105 

Palo - R Hawk - A Valley - Mesquite

Nuclear/Gas

WECC 3:00 AM      4,269  -673      4,135       3,540       4,942 

Capricorn Ridge-Goat WindWind/Wind

ERCOT 5:00 AM           15  -574         349             -            801 

Independence Coal SERC 6:00 AM      1,147  -539         586           -20       1,686 

Buffalo GapWind/Wind

ERCOT 5:00 AM              1  -514         201             -            515 

 Source: Bloomberg, Genscape Note: as of 7 a.m. ET   NH GSP <GO>

Insight: Survey  Market Call

America’s glut of natural gas that’s lasted for over a year may disappear before January. Gas stockpiles may slip below average for the first time since May 2015 by the end of the month, , senior market Phil Flynnanalyst at in Price Futures GroupChicago, said by phone. The bitter cold forecast to sweep across the northern U.S. in December is seen stoking record demand to heat homes and businesses. "We’ve been lulled into a false sense of security because we were above average," Flynn said by phone. The surplus is "not as big as it appears." Gas stockpiles may drop by as much as 600 Bcf over the next three weeks, or about double the average draws for the period, as teeth-chattering temperatures drive up demand, Flynn said.

—  Jonathan N. Crawford and Naureen S.

Malik, Bloomberg News

 

Genscape Data: Power Generation by Facility

U.S. LNG Tanker Tracker

Gas May Rally Further as Arctic Air to Wipe Out Supply Glut

U.S. natural gas bulls see futures that rallied to a two-year high climbing even further as an arctic blast helps wipe out a supply surplus that emerged in late 2014. Seven of 10 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted higher prices while the rest were bearish.  Weather projections show that a mass of arctic air will move farther south into the U.S. over the next 10 days, pushing temperatures to below freezing levels in the Midwest and parts of the Northeast, said .Commodity Weather Group LLC

— Naureen S. Malik, Bloomberg News

  Power & Gas 4  Dec. 9, 2016

 

LNG Facilities

INTERSTATE PIPELINE RECEIPTS (MMCF) TODAY YESTERDAY CHG PRIOR 10D AVG EST. LIQUID IN STORAGE (BCF NG)

Sabine Pass Total 795 1413 -618 1450 7.7 / 17

Creole Trail 795 728 67 786

NGPL 0 685 -685 664Note: Pipeline flows are based on reported nominations and are subject to revisions.

See a live version of Sabine Pass pipeline receipts on the Bloomberg terminal .  here

Sabine Pass LNG Tanker Departures Expected & Actual

VESSEL DESTINATION DEPARTURE ARRIVED CAPACITY (M3) NOTES

Seishu Maru 12/22/2016 151466 (e) Med headed West

Maran Gas Efessos 12/15/2016 157827 (e) North Atlantic headed Gulf

Lng Abalamabie 12/14/2016 169587 (e) North Atlantic headed Gulf

La Mancha Knutsen 12/11/2016 171469 (e) Off Sabine

Stena Clear Sky 12/10/2016 171449 (e) Gulf headed Sabine

Gaslog Salem 12/8/2016 153035 (e) At Sabine

Oak Spirit 12/6/2016 171259 (e) Gulf Outbound headed Caribbean Sea

Maran Gas Alexandria 12/4/2016 161975 (e) Caribbean Sea headed Panama

Golar Glacier 12/2/2016 160000 (e) Pacific Ocean headed NorthWest

Clean Ocean 11/29/2016 160000 (e) Pacific Ocean headed NorthWest

Methane Princess 11/25/2016 134406 (e) Med headed East

Maria Energy Asia 11/22/2016 171851 (e) Pacific Ocean headed Asia

Bilbao Knutsen Mexico, Manzanillo 11/21/2016 12/1/2016 133381 (e)

Wilpride Italy, Livorno 11/17/2016 12/5/2016 154081 (e)

Methane Julia Louise Asia 11/16/2016 165349 (e) Pacific Ocean headed Asia

Creole Spirit Mexico, Manzanillo 11/12/2016 12/5/2016 171259 (e)

Maran Gas Alexandria Mexico, Manzanillo 11/11/2016 11/22/2016 161975 (e)Source: ABB Inc., IHS, Bloomberg. In capacity: (e) indicates estimated from ship capacity, (c) indicates confirmed from DOE.

 

INTERSTATE PIPELINE SEND OUTS (MMCF) TODAY YESTERDAY CHG PRIOR 10D AVG WINTER TO DATE WINTER 15/16 AVG

Total 99.64* 17.78 81.86 7.96 15.96 155.98

Canaport (Est. Storage 6.37 BCF) 59.16* 17.78 41.38 7.60 11.80 81.88

Everett 40.47* 0 40.47 0.36 4.16 53.34

to TGP 32.10* 0 32.10 0.36 3.53 16.01

to AGT 8.38* 0.00 8.38 0.00 0.44 37.45

NE Gateway (No Vessel) 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.90

VESSEL (ACTUAL & EXPECTED) DESTINATION EXPECTED ARRIVAL ARRIVED ORIGIN (LOAD DATE) EST. CAPACITY (MMCF) NOTES

Gaselys Everett 11/4/2016 Yes Point Fortin (10/25/16) 2,428 Discharged

BW GDF Suez Boston Everett 12/2/2016 Yes Point Fortin (11/16/16) 2,977 DischargedSource: ABB Inc., IHS, Bloomberg, Port of St. John*Highest since Nov. 1

U.S. LNG Tanker Tracker

U.S. Northeast/Atlantic Canada LNG Import Tracker

Weather Tracker

  Power & Gas 5  Dec. 9, 2016

 

Weather Tracker

Gas and Power Spots

6-10 Day Outlook

Source: NOAA, Bloomberg  WHUT<GO>

8-14 Day Outlook

Source: NOAA, Bloomberg  WHUT<GO>

Source: Bloomberg   Updated 12/9/16WETR<GO>

* degree days are the number of degrees that a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit.   degree days are the Heating  Coolingnumber of degrees that a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit.

  Power & Gas 6  Dec. 9, 2016

 

Gas and Power Spots

 

7,000 Heat Rate Spark Spreads

To view on your Bloomberg terminal: SPRK

Gas Forwards

Source: Bloomberg   As of close of business 12/08/16ISO<GO> BGAS<GO>

  Power & Gas 7  Dec. 9, 2016

 

Gas Forwards

 

Power Forwards

 Source: Bloomberg   Updated: 1:45 p.m. ET        CFVL<GO>

  Power & Gas 8  Dec. 9, 2016

Bloomberg Brief: Power & Gas

 

Power Forwards

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Source: Bloomberg Updated: 1:46 p.m. ET          CFVL<GO>