TOC Americas 2016 | Cancun

BRAZIL MARKET BRIEFING: LATIN AMERICA’S LARGEST MARITIME PLAYER

World population: Development & Consequences World population has increased by 133% since 1960, while food production has gone up 237% in the same period. Main reasons:

Rural migration to urban areas;

Improved Life expectancy;

A rise in Income;Inefficiencies/waste in Supply chain between producer and consumer:

Source: FAO - Food Outlook (2014)

World Production of select Basic Foodstuffs (mmt)Commodity Avg 61-

63Avg 09-

11%

GrowthWheat 253.3 678.8 188Maze 210.0 853.1 306Rice 225.8 705.0 212Soybean 27.4 250.3 814

Source: USDA

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

0

20

40

60

80

100

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

020

40

6080

100

120

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

010203040506070

Global Meat Production - million tons

Ranking 2016 Mt1º USA 18,52º Brazil 13,63º China 12,7

4ºEuropean

Union 10,8

5º India 4,2

Ranking 2016 Mt1º China 53,52º European

Union 23,23º USA 11,34º Brazil 3,65º Russia 2,7

Ranking 2016 Mt1º USA 11,32º Brazil 9,63º European

Union 7,74º China 6,85º India 4,3

CAGR (1960-2016) 3,1%

CAGR (1960-2016) 7,1%

CAGR (1960-2016) 1,6%

2016109,3 MT

201689,7 MT

201659,0 MT

Economics & Data Science



Source: USDA

Source: USDA

Pork (263g)

Chicken (575g)

Bovine (173g)

Source: Hostle and Boihuls

Quantity (in grams )of

Soybean used per Kg of meat:

• China is the biggest meat producer in the world

• USA & Brazil have grains to feed their animals;

• China & European Union need to import grains;

• IMPORTANT: With less than 3% of the World’s population, Brazil accounts for 11% of meat production!

How does the world consume soybean?


8,9%

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0Estados UnidosOutrosArgentinaParaguaiBrasil

Soybeans: Main Exporters

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180JapãoOutrosEUMéxicoChina

CAGR 2000-2015 | 2016-2025

3,2%

Soybeans : Main ImportersSoybean Supply & Demand

Source: USDA

Source: USDA


4,5% 1,9%

13% 2,7%

CAGR 2000-2015 | 2016-2025

CAGR 2000-2015 | 2016-2025

The Chinese government’s social inclusion plan intends to lift 440 million people out of poverty by 2022, which will lead for instance to an additional production of 785,774 bovine per year if each of this new consumers eat 1kg of meat per year.

554

60

38

198

This growth in production will come from the:

Convertion of degraded pastures into cropland;Intensification of land use in livestock; (Bovine feedlot and supplementing pasture);Integration of Crop-Livestock-Planted Forest;Use of new technologies: seeds, fertilizers and equipment for planting and cropping.

Land use in Brazil: we have it all!

Infrastructure needed to meet Chinese demandNorth Arch

New highways projeted/in constructionNew railways projeted/in constructionNew waterways projeted/in construction

Existing highways Exisiting railways Existing waterways

New agricultural frontiers

CAGR 1995-2015TOTAL

7,9%• Deep Sea

6,8%• Cabotage

13,3%

Mkt Share 2010 / 2015• Deep Sea 84% / 74%• Cabotage 16% / 26%

353%

Moviment of containers in Brazil (Boxes)

Elaborated by SOLVE | Source: Antaq

The exchange rate is boosting manufactured exportsExchange rate (R$/US$)(Monthly average)

Source: MDIC-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000Exportações Importações Saldo Comercial

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Trade Balance

Source: BCB

Due to a favorable exchange rate, segments such as Pulp & Paper, Plywood, Autoparts, Textiles, Footwear etc, have recorded signifcant growth

and this has led to the a change in our Trade Balance since Feb.15, taking it back

to its position before the 2008 International Crisis.



Brazil is also an important global suplier of:

Worldwide Export Leadership

Orange Juice

Coffee Sugar Ethanol

Source: CNA

82% of exports57% of Global Production




New patterns in the shipping industry - Brazil

Santa Class / 7.100teu

Aliança Santos / 2.500teu

Dec 2010

Biggest Vessel

# Regular Services

CABO

TAG

E +

FEE

DER

+ M

ERCO

SUL 7

Nominal Capacity 10.000

DEEP

SEA

37

112.000

New Cap San / 9.600teu

Vicente Pinzon / 4.800teu

Dec 20157

15.200

21

111.000

-

52%

92%

- 43%

35%

∆

- 0,9%

While the Deep Sea services have

remained stable in terms of capacity, Cabotage services

have grown, especially as a

Feeder service.

Biggest Vessel

# Regular Services

Nominal Capacity

Source: SOLVE

In addition, with less calls per week, competition in

container terminals has

intensified

RIO GRANDEITA

JAI

ITAPO

A

PARANAGUA

SANTO

S

ITAGUAI

RIO DE JANEIR

O

SALV

ADORSU

APEPE

CEM

MANAUS

DPW Antw

erp

LONDON Gate

way

RTM Maa

svlakt

e 2

HPH Barc

elona

DPW Je

bel A

li

PSA Sin

gapo

re10121416182022

12.2

10.5 11.0

11.3 12

.7 14.3

12.5 13

.9

16.4

14.5

17.0

17.0

20.0

16.5 17.0 18

.0

Around 85%

of container

moviments

Draft limitation for vessels over 300m of LOA (≈9.000teu)

Source: SOLVE Around 15%

of container

moviments

New challenges are affecting current performance

Elaborated by SOLVE | Source: Antaq

Terminals increasing volumes are invariably the ones capable of handling the biggest vessels, while others are just struggling to

survive!!!

Brazil: Big picture!

International Trade Ranking 2015

• 25th position on worldwide Export ranking (1,2%)

• 25th position on worldwide Import ranking (1,1%)

But this i

s all

about value!!!

International Trade Growth 2014 x 2015

• World: -13%• Brazil Export: -15,1%• Brazil Import: -25,2%

When analyzing export in volumes

• Contrary to what is depicted, Brazilian Maritime Export volume grew by 11% in the 1H/16;

• Grains pulled the average up with its growth of 31% in the 1H/16;

• According to a recent information from WTO, Brazil recorded the highest export growth in terms of volume in the 1H/16;

… and at the end of the day, volume is what really matters for investments

in logistics!!!

31%

21% 12

%15

% 15%

6%16

%13

%

Opportunities abound in:

Grain terminals in

the northRailways

WaterwaysModern Container terminals in the South/Southeast

Highways

Fertilizer terminals

Grain Warehouses

Reefer Warehouses

Cabotage

Etc etc etc

Dredging

Summing up

=

Thank you!

Leandro Carelli Barreto Partner/Consultant

[email protected]

TOC Americas 2016 | Cancun

Presentations & Public Speaking

Transcript of TOC Americas 2016 | Cancun