to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors...
Transcript of to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors...
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Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval host of TalklineHoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio Network
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The Changing Face of W t Vi i i P litiWest Virginia Politics
Dems control both WV chambers since 1930 ‘32 election WV one of 42 states for FDR32 election WV one of 42 states for FDRDems Rule! 1932‐2004, 129 of 139 terms for statewide office won by Demsstatewide office won by Dems
Exceptions: Arch Moore, Cecil Underwood, Cl B di t Cleve Benedict.
WV is Big Blue
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2000 Election George Bush Al Gore
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President HerbertHerbert Hoover
h lThe last time a non‐incumbent Republican pcarried WV in a Presidential Race before Race before 2000 was 1928.
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Buck Harless and George Bush
The Southern West Virginia industrialist industrialist decides he wants to help wants to help Bush try to win the election.
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Buck’s a Pioneer1996 WV raises $22,000 for Bob Dole2000 Harless pledges to raise $100 0002000 Harless pledges to raise $100,000Bush people set his goal at $35,000Harless raises $275,000“Well what do you know?” Well, what do you know?Bush starts paying attention to WV
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NRA President h lCharleton
Heston
“It gave those ‘olboys chills.” State Senator Shirley Love
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Bush Wins WVBush wins Raleigh by 1,500 votesUMWA: “Stay home.”UMWA: Stay home.Bush loses southern WV 2‐1 instead of 3‐1 or 4‐14‐1
Bush carries WV 52‐46, by 40,000 votesh l lBush gets WV 5 electoral votes
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HangingHanging chads
Florida vote controversy leaves 2000 election undecided
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WV decides the electionWV decides the election
270 electoral votes needed to winBush 271 w/WV and Florida. Gore 267Bush 271 w/WV and Florida. Gore 267 If Gore had carried WV with its 5 electoral votes he would have 272 without Floridavotes he would have 272 without Florida
The GOP nominee for President has carried WV i h f l ti i WV in each of elections since 2000
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Robert C. Byrd Live boy dead •Live boy, dead woman•Top of the ticket Top of the ticket leader with down‐ballot strength•June 28, 2010•Democratic bench weakness
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Party registration shifts 1994 65% of WV voters registered Democratic 2004 58% of WV voters registered Democratic 2012 52% of WV voters registered Democratic 2014 49.9% of WV Voters registered Democratic4 49 9 g GOP Chair Conrad Lucas: “This is a really historic day for our state and our party.”
2016 46% of WV Voters registered Democratic
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WV Voter Registration Trends
60%
70%
40%
50%
Dem
20%
30% RepubIndep
0%
10%
0%1994 2004 2012 2014
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But wait a minute… Dems hold 577,000 to 379,000 advantage Dem majority in 43 of 55 counties GOP % registration has stayed the same, just below 30%
1994 39,000 independent voters Today 257,576 independent voters, 21%Why pick a party?
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Epic 2012 Primary showdown
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Obama wins Primary, but… 2012 Primary Election: Obama 106,000 and Keith Judd with 72 000Keith Judd with 72,000
“I voted against Obama,” said ,electrician Ronnie BrownOb l Cli Obama lost to Clinton by 41 points in 2008 Primary Primary
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National Dem leftward leanEPA rules and mine permit rules damage coal industryy
UMWA President Cecil Roberts: “National Democratic Party has forgotten about men Democratic Party has forgotten about men and women who take a shower at the end of the workday.”the workday.
Obamacare unpopular in WV
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WV Dems as Sisyphus in 2014
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WV 1st Congressional DistrictDavid McKinley 64% Glen Gainer 36%
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WV 2nd Congressional DistrictAlex Mooney 47% Nick Casey 44%
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WV 3rd Congressional DistrictEvan Jenkins 55% Nick Rahall 45%
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U.S. Senate Shelley Moore Capito 62% Natalie Tennant 35%
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WV Legislature flipsHouse: GOP picks up 17 seats… 47‐53 to 64‐363
Senate: 10‐24 to 17‐17Dem Sen Daniel Hall switches parties Dem. Sen. Daniel Hall switches parties, giving Dems 18‐16 advantage in Senate.
Bill C l l t d S t P id t Ti Bill Cole elected Senate President, Tim Armstead elected House Speaker
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The 15 Year TransitionGOP Presidential nominee carries WVGOP holds all three Congressional GOP holds all three Congressional seatsGOP has first U.S. Senator since 1958GOP controls both House and Senate GOP controls both House and Senate for first time since 1930L D h i h lLosses put Dems on their heals
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2012 ElectionElection Results
Many experts say West Virginia’s gtransition was one of the last in a series of in a series of southern states going red.
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Is West Virginia Really Red? 2016 should tell us because… Presidential election All three Congressional seats are up All House of Delegates seats, half the Senateg Governor Treasurer, Secretary of State, Attorney General, , y , y ,Auditor
Local races
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Ji J i Bill C lJim Justice vs. Bill ColeSource: Metronews West Virginia Poll (May)
Justice 52% Cole 34%
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Preference for WV Legislative ControlSource: Metronews West Virginia Poll
Democrat, 38%
Not Sure, 18%
e oc at, 38%
Republican, %44%
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Senator Joe Manchin
•47% Approve 47 pp•37% Disapprove
% S•16% Not Sure•Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll
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Senator Shelley Moore Capito
53% Approve26% disapprove21% not Sure21% not SureSource: Metronews West Virginia Poll
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Governor EarlGovernor Earl Ray Tomblin
47% Approve47% Approve32% Disapprove 21% Not SureSource: Metronews West Virginia Poll
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PresidentPresident Barack Obama
24% Approve71% Disapprove5% Not Sure 5% Not Sure Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll
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Right Track or Wrong Track?
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Metronews West Virginia Poll byMetronews West Virginia Poll by Repass Research 28% WV headed in right direction 56% WV headed in wrong direction56% WV headed in wrong direction 15% Not sureB tt if WV h GOP D t G ?Better if WV has GOP or Dem as next Gov?34% Democrat37% Republican29% Not Sure 9% Not Su e
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What does itWhat does it all mean?•Blue to redBlue to red•Leftward lean by national Demshurts WV Demshurts WV Dems•Dems need to regain gmomentum•Republicans on short leash short leash •Past not prologue
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Tight budgetbudget
times in WV blGov. Tomblin:
“This was one of the most challenging budget years I’ve dealt with I ve dealt with in my 42 years of public
”service.”
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Tobacco Tax Increase (1st plan)Proposal to raise cigarette tax by 45 cents up to $1 per pack.cents up to $1 per pack.Fails in the House 45‐55. All but one of 36 House Democrats vote against the billgOnly 44 of the 64 House Republicans vote for the bill vote for the bill
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Tobacco Tax Increase (2nd plan) Proposal to raise cigarette tax by 65 cents to $1.20 per pack
Passes the House 63‐35 21 of 36 Democrats vote for the bill 42 of 64 Republicans vote for the bill Two month regular session and 17 day special session to pass tobacco tax increase
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Tax/fee increase difficulty 27% of West Virginians smoke Let’s say 40% of them vote 120,000 West Virginians directly affected by the cigarette tax are actual voters out of 1.2 million registered voters
Great difficulty passing a tax increase even though i ’ l i i ff i ll it’s on an unpopular activity affecting a small percentage of voters
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E b d ’Everybody’s Driving
•1.3 million private and 3 pcommercial vehicles registered in WV. (Source: FHA)M hi l h •More vehicles than there are registered voters.•If 40% of vehicle •If 40% of vehicle owners vote that’s 520,000 voters.•2012 Gov race Tomblin beat Maloney by 335,000 to 303,000.•Politicians are super
iti t hi lsensitive to any vehicle‐related tax/fee increase.
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Gas priceGas price obsession
Do you know any product where the i i h average price is $30‐40 where we compare
prices to the tenth of a cent?
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Benefits Received Principle“As much as possible, the taxpayer’s burden should reflect taxpayer s burden should reflect the benefit received from the Government.”
Source: Governor’s Commission on Fair Taxation report. December 1999December 1999.
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Increasing taxes or fees for anything
You see: “Just 80 cents a day buys ”day buys…They see: “My taxes are My taxes are going up…”
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House of Delegates GOP 64 seat majority is splintered. Social issues, Common Core, Religious Freedom Restoration Act, raw milk.
A large chunk fundamentally opposed to ANY higher taxes or fees.
Liberty Caucus influence. House Whip John O’Neal voted against leadership on 45 cent cigarette tax increase.
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Yogi gBerra
“Wh “When you come to a fork to a fork in the road, road, take it.”
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Who will be in charge?Governor Bill Cole? Governor Jim Justice?
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Support or Oppose… Increase in motor vehicle sales tax 5% to 6%. Increase DMV fees.Maintaining tolls on turnpike. Building new state toll roads.g Increase in state gasoline tax. Statewide road bond issue. Empowering counties to raise taxes for roads. Restructuring WVDOT for efficiencies. Restructuring WVDOT for efficiencies.
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Restructure West Virginia Government
•“That’s the way we’ve always d i ” done it.” •“Status quo” is Latin for “The mess we’re in.” Ronald Reagan.•What government must do •What government must do, what government wants to do. (infrastructure, education, protect the public)•Decentralize authority.•Measure performance by outcomes, not inputs and outputs. S i f k b d •Strive for market‐based solutions, not bureaucratic solutions.•With declining revenue and rising costs government has rising costs, government has to be more efficient.
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Convergence of ForcesPolitical Economic
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Politics is the process by which power is distributed and d ddecisions are made.
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Questions? h k hThanks to the
Contractors Association of West Virginia and Mike ClowserClowser.