TNS CanCham 2012 Crystal Ball Consumer Forecast 07Feb2012
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Transcript of TNS CanCham 2012 Crystal Ball Consumer Forecast 07Feb2012
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AMCHAM October 7, 2011
PURCHASING POWER& PRIORITY SPENDING
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Agenda
Evolution of wealthConsumer confidence & inflation
Branding trends
Spending priorities
Summary
Ralf MatthaesRegional Managing Director
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The Evolution of Viet-Wealth
1988
1998
2005
2008
2011-2012
2009
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33
29
21
10
5
3 A
B
C
D
E
F
1999
Evolution Declared Monthly Household income - Urban
Source: TNS VietC cle 2011 Hanoi HCMC Danan Can Tho onl
A = 13.5 15.0
B = 6.5 13.5
C = 4.5 6.5
D = 3.0 4.5
E = 2.0 3.0
F = less than 2.0
VND Million
A+ = 15.0 Plus
21
46
9
3
9
10
1
A+
A
C
D
E
F
2011
B
Upper middle class in Urban Vietnam now constitutes 65% of pop
But only makes up about 30% of total population
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Gross National Income - 2009-2010 (USD)
39,000
14,800
8,086
3,994 3,737 3,123 2,000
Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Cambodia
National Purchase Power Parody (USD)
Due to constant inflationary pressure Vietnam
lags behind in terms of PPP in South Asia
Vietnam has surpassed
Indonesia and should
surpass the Philippinesin the next 5 years
Source: TNS South Asia network
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Consumer Confidence 2010-2011
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2011 Outlook - Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence has seen a steady increasesince 2010 to 83 points
Source: TNS Consumer Confidence Index
2008 2009 201001/2011 09/2011
89
64
7876
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 2 3 4 5
83
7978
64
89
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Q: In the next 12 months would you think that the following will be better, the same or worse than they are now?
Consumer overview of Vietnam's next 12 months
Vietnamese consumer seem fairly buoyant with regards to Vietnams
overall outlook for the next 12 months, except for cost of living / dong
devaluation and pollution, which was consistent with 2009 / 2010.
Source: TNS VietCycle 2011 Urban only
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will you spend more - less - the same in 2012
Source: TNS VietCycle 2011 Urban only
Almost 50% note spending less / month to the end of the year than
they spent in the 1st 7 months, with only 7% spending more.
The poor will spend more, as inflation rips into their wallets
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Total Expenditure & Savings HCMC & Hanoi
Source: TNS VietCycle 1999-2011
83
86
88
91
81
84
81
17
14
12
9
19
16
19
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1999
2001
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
Total expenditure Saving
Savings
Until the global economic meltdown, Vietnamese savings
were dropping year on year. Now caution is the word.
Total expenditure
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Branding trends
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Key urban FMCG trends 2012 - 2015
I worry about my health more than ever before - 89%
I worry more today about food safety95%
HEALTH
I prefer to beverages I can drink
from the container - 72%
I prepare food the require little
preparation - 63% agreeCONVENIENCE
I buy products of good quality, even if more expensive90%
Higher price products means higher quality 55%
SOPHISTICATION
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
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Discounted priceFree gift with
purchaseSweepstake/Lucky
draw prizes
Get free
product/samplewith multiple
purchase
Monetary gift
Most preferred promotion (%)
Source: TNS VietCycle 2011 Urban only
As the economy slows and inflation soar, discounted
prices are the preferred promotions
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The origin of brands
The country of origin ismore important than the
brand nameVietnamese brands areas good as international
brandsI prefer local Vietnamese
brands
Source: TNS VietCycle 2011 Urban only
Vietnamese brands have caught up to Internationalbrands in the minds and wallets of consumers
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Vietnamese are buying much less than in the pastdue to inflation and a slowing economy
*Biggest categories: 24food and non-food categories with >60% penetration in first 6 months of the year = 60% of FMCG total market valueSource: Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam Household Panel Urban 4 key cities (HCMC, HANOI, DANANG, CANTHO)
CONSUMTION TRENDS AMONG HIGHEST PENETRATION
CATEGORIES*
15.8
14.2
8.9
9.2
18.8
1.4 SEM 1'10 vs SEM 1'09
SEM 1'11 vs SEM 1'10
AVG. VALUEGROWTH
AVG. PRICE
GROWTH
AVG.VOLUMEGR
OWTH
Urban Consumption of FMCG
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
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Spending priorities
Will b di h l i
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Education
Health care products / services
Food & beverages products
Household utilities
House hold care products
Personal care products
Transportation
Communications
Entertainment & dining out
Personal equipment
Home appliances
Will you be spending more, the same or less in 2012
Source: TNS VietCycle 2011 Hanoi / HCMCIronically spend on many sectors seems to show growth
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Consumers top 10 wish list for 2012!
Digital Camera
24%Car
22%
Karaoke system
21%LCD / Plasma TV
20%PC / Desktop
14%Smart TV
14%Refrigerator
12%
Source: TNS VietCycle 2011. Q46 Which of the following are 3 items you would most like to own that you do not own
yet? Base: n= 2,000 (Total)
Air-conditioner
33%Laptop
33%
Washing machine
32%
Must haves for 2012
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Summary
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2010 vs 2011 year in review & 2012 forecast
GDP
Inflation
Trade deficit
Exports
Imports
FDI
Retail spend*
Ad spend
FMCG Value
FMCG Volume
Tourism
Consumer confidenceSource: GSO / TNS / Kantar Media* VN Retail Association not sure if accurate
Measure
6.78%
11.75%
US$12.4 B
US$71.6 B
US$84.0 B
US$18.6 B
US$78.0 B
US$726 M
21%growth
9%
5.0 M
78 index
2010
5.89%
18.13%
US$9.6 B
US$96.4 B
US$105.8 B
US$10.9 B
US$95.0B
US$760 M
16%growth
1.4%
6.0 M
83 index
2011 Performance
6.0%
10%
US$12-14 B
US$99 B
US$115 B
US$14B
?
US$800 M
14% growth
1% growth
6.5 M
76 index
2012 est.
I t t t iti f 2012
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Investment opportunities for 2012Infrastructure
Better services for telecom/ electricity/ water/ Cable TV/ Internet / Utilities
Education
High schools, vocational training and University degrees in-country
Healthcare
Ethical drugs, maternal care, health & well being
FMCG
Food & beverage / personal care and household care
Convenience & health platform / mass market / rural Vietnam price points
Electronics
Laptops, A/C, Washing machines, digital cameras
TransportCars
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Crystal Ball 2012
Key word is caution - wait & see
Consumer spend will be down
Value for money is key as is quality & USP
Major reforms required;
Inflation / devaluation Finance system
SoE performance FDI appeal
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www.tnsvietnam.vn
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