TMT Predictions 2012...The $100 “smartphone” reaches its first half billion NFC and mobile...
Transcript of TMT Predictions 2012...The $100 “smartphone” reaches its first half billion NFC and mobile...
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© Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
April 23, 2013
TMT Predictions 2013 Insights. In advance.
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60 countries, 60+ cities, 10,000 people at launch events in first 3 months of 2013
Predictions was first published in 2001
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Predictions methodology
2
8,000 specialists in
TMT, tax, audit, risk,
corporate finance
and consulting
Deloitte TMT
Research
Projects/discussions
with industry bodies
Macroeconomic
research
Discussions with
clients around the
world
Experts at industry
analysts and
financial institutions
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>330 end notes + >500 references + 1000s x conversations + 10,000s survey responses = P 13.
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TMT Predictions 2012 Report card
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2012 Technology Predictions report card
Consumer tech demand defies the economic headwinds
It takes two to tablet: The rise of the multi-tablet owner
Billions and billions: Big data becomes a big deal
Hard times for the hard disk: Solid state storage surges
Ambient radio frequency power harvesting: A drop in the bucket
3D printing is here – but the factory in every home isn’t here yet!
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Came true, but less than
we predicted. At least so far
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Legend
Came true exactly as
much as we predicted
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Hard times for the hard disk Solid state storage surges
6 6
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© Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 7
2012 Media Predictions report card
Targeted television advertisements miss the point
The schedule dominates, still
All aboard for the catch-up commuter thanks to the portable DVR
A “brand” new day for online ads
Market research is all in your head: MRI machines and media
Online coupon intermediaries: from novelty, to celebrity,
to sizeable niche
Came true, but less than
we predicted. At least so far
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Legend
Came true exactly as
much as we predicted
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© Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 8
2012 Telecom Predictions report card
The $100 “smartphone” reaches its first half billion
NFC and mobile devices: Payments and much more!
Web bypass: Delivering connectivity without the Internet
Here come more data caps: It is the end of the (wire)line
for unlimited Internet
So many apps – so little to download
Came true, but less than
we predicted. At least so far
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Legend
Came true exactly as
much as we predicted
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Total prediction accuracy
9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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© 2013 Deloitte Southeast Asia Ltd
Mythbusters
10
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© 2013 Deloitte Southeast Asia Ltd
Early remote control
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TV is going to the dogs
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Voice and gesture remote control
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Voice and gesture remote control
14
02 00 02
False negatives/
10,000 uses
False positives/
10,000 uses
Error rate/
10,000 uses
(dead battery, dog in
front of TV sensor)
Remote Control
1,200 800 2,000
False negatives/
10,000 uses
False positives/
10,000 uses
Error rate/
10,000 uses
Gesture
1,000 500 1,500
False Negatives/
10,000 uses
False positives/
500 uses
Error rate/
10,000 uses
Voice
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What’s Deloitte’s opinion on touch screen laptops?
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We don’t have opinions, we have data points…
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0
5
10
15
20
Anticipated Sales Actual Sales
Mil
lio
ns
First Two Months of 2013 Touchscreen Laptops (all brands)
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What’s Deloitte opinion on wearable computers?
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You know they are transparent, low-resolution, work only with a smartphone, cost $1500, and probably violate privacy laws, right?
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The looming spectrum shortage Worse before it gets better
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A growing proportion of smartphone owners may never or rarely connect to data services
24
64% 72% 72%
77% 77% 79% 85%
92%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Belgium Germany Canada France Finland UK United States Japan
Proportion of smartphones that are Internet-connected in developed markets among respondents who own a
smartphone
Proportion of smartphones that are Internet-connected in developing markets among urban professionals who
own a smartphone
67%
76% 76% 77% 81%
85% 91%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Russia Argentina Mexico Brazil South Africa Croatia Turkey
Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions, 2013
#tmtpredictions Join the #TMTongoruleri conversation
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We are in the post-PC era
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1.5B
0.3B
1.6B
200
50
60
Internet device hours/month Internet accessing device units
300B
15B
96B
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84 sq Inches
(540 cm^2)
1 x 3.5” screens
4.8” Smartphone 7” Tablet 9.7” Tablet
5.2 sq Inches
(34 cm^2)
3.5” Smartphone
Screen area (16:9 aspect ratio) As measured in 3.5” screens
1.9 x 3.5” screens
9.8 sq Inches
(63 cm^2)
4.0 x 3.5” screens
21 sq Inches
(135 cm^2)
7.0 x 3.5” screens
40 sq Inches
(259 cm^2)
16.2 x 3.5” screens
14” Laptop 23” Monitor
226 sq Inches
(1458 cm^2)
43.5 x 3.5” screens
42” LCD TV
754 sq Inches
(4862 cm^2)
145 x 3.5” screens
Source: Deloitte Canada calculations
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Share of connected device traffic Dec 2011, US data
28
Source: comScore Device Essentials, Dec-2011, U.S.
91.8% 8.2%
5.2%
2.5%
0.5%
Classic web Other Tablet Mobile
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www.emarketer.com
Devices used for online activities by smartphone owners in Canada, April 2012
% of respondents in each group
29
Computer* Smartphone Tablet
Research health issues and symptoms 89% 21% 16%
Shop for products and services 89% 26% 18%
Maintain personal banking and finances 89% 29% 13%
Source maps and directions 86% 59% 18%
Communicate with family and friends 86% 74% 20%
Connect to social networks 80% 52% 20%
Keep up to date on daily news 78% 43% 21%
Online education and learning 71% 11% 12%
Play games 66% 50% 21%
Watch movies and TV shows 54% 10% 14%
Stream live radio 53% 21% 8%
Stream music (e.g., Rdio, Grooveshark, Loudlee) 47% 19% 8%
Live streaming of major sporting and
entertainment events 35% 6% 7%
Note: *Laptop, desktop or netbook
Source: Rogers, “Innovation Report: 2012 Trend Watch* conducted by Vision Critical, May 9, 2012
140346
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Which device is more important to you —
that is, which device could you least do without?
(Among respondents who own both a laptop and a tablet)
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Q1, 2011 – All 2+ Q1, 2011 – 18-34
87%
81%
76%
65%
41%
35
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Demographic profile of TV viewers
36
Demographics
Proportion of TV viewing population (%) Total
population
(%) Heavy Medium Light Non-
viewers
Income Less than 10,000
10,000 – 19,999
20,000 – 29,999
30,000 – 49,999
50,000 – 69,999
70,000 or more
9
26
16
25
13
10
6
15
14
29
19
18
6
12
12
28
20
23
7
15
13
26
17
23
6
16
14
28
18
19
Discretionary
spending
Light spenders
Medium spenders
Heavy spenders
48
31
21
31
34
35
28
34
38
34
31
35
33
33
33
Socio-
Economic
quintile
FG
E
D
C
AB
34
25
18
14
9
19
20
21
21
19
14
18
20
22
26
15
17
20
21
27
20
20
20
20
20
*includes full-time and part-tme workers which totals 60% of the population
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Demographic profile of TV viewers
37
Demographics
Proportion of TV viewing population (%) Total
population
(%) Heavy Medium Light Non-
viewers
Education
level
Primary
Some secondary
Completed Year 12
Some/Now at Uni
Have Diploma/
Degree
5
53
20
6
16
3
40
20
9
29
2
32
17
11
38
2
31
15
10
42
3
39
19
9
31
Employment
variables*
Other (inc.
semi/unskilled)
Skilled workers
White collar
Professional/Manager
14
5
14
7
15
8
22
16
15
8
23
22
14
8
21
21
15
8
20
17
*includes full-time and part-tme workers which totals 60% of the population
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1% 2%
97%
2012 Summer Olympics
Live VOSDAL 1-6 days later
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Let’s get together Crowdfunding portals bring in the bucks
39 Join the #Deloittepredicts conversation
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Let’s get together Crowdfunding portals bring in the bucks
41 Join the #Deloittepredicts conversation
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Bring your own computer
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Bring your own computer
43
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Bring your own computer
44
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P@$$1234 The end of strong password-only security
Is this your password?
G@ndalf789
Or this?
+4J’,^{P5%N/3n
45
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P@$$1234 The end of strong password-only security
46
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P@$$1234 The end of strong password-only security
47
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