Ovum Forecaster

Introducing Ovum’s new Forecaster data service

OvumOvumTMT intelligence |

Better strategic decision-making with

a complete view of the converging

TMT market

ContentsFast and Accurate Market Data for the Digital Economy

Why Ovum Forecaster

Forecaster delivers

The Forecaster Suite

Forecaster Market Coverage

Forecaster Service Provider Markets

Forecaster Service Provider Markets: Mobile

Forecaster Service Provider Markets: Fixed Line

Forecaster Service Provider Markets: OTT, Video & TV

Forecaster Service Provider Markets

Forecaster Consumer & Entertainment Services

Forecaster Enterprise Services

Forecaster Internet of Things

Forecaster Service Provider Technology

Forecaster Enterprise Verticals

Forecaster IT Markets

Ovum Forecasting Approach

Ovum Forecasting Apprach: The Forecasting Team

Ovum Forecasting Apprach: A new data management and analytical plaform

Forecaster comes with Ovum’s best in class customer support

Empowering Strategic Decision Making

Ovum is uniquely qualified to support your organization

Fast and Accurate Market Data for the Digital Economy

Companies in the rapidly changing telecommunications, media, and technology(TMT) industry require comprehensive, accurate and up-to-date market data and forecasts when making strategic investment decisions. Ovum has developed Forecaster, the industry’s most powerful market data and forecasting service to enable you to answer 3 critical questions:

Ovum’s Forecaster service lets you…

Where to play?

• Better understand your target markets: size, growth rates, and trends

• Identify new opportunities in emerging markets

• Mitigate the risks associated with market disruption, technology advances and regulatory change

What to deliver?

• Identify which new services will generate the highest revenues in each market segment

• Analyze the migration to digital services across your target markets

How to sell?

• Increase revenue by better aligning your products and services with market needs

• Select the right business partners in each of your markets and segments

• Beat the competition by leveraging superior market intelligence sooner

• Analyze the interplay of converging technologies

• Assess the substitution impact of both pure play and traditional services on your core revenues

• Benchmark your company’s performance

• Build tailored market forecasts by segment

• Gain a comprehensive picture of the converging and evolving TMT market

• Access Ovum’s global team of experts

Why Ovum Forecaster

To take full advantage of the new opportunities within the TMT market, business leaders need a comprehensive, accurate and up-to-date set of data and forecasts. Only with this essential understanding can organizations effectively target new opportunities and set winning strategies.

Since 1981, Ovum has been tracking the world of connectivity and the convergence of the TMT market. We now provide more than 130 detailed forecasts with data on more than 2,500 service providers and 1,000 metrics for more than 220 territories. Ovum’s data ensures that you have the most complete view of the changing markets, services, and technologies enabling you to gain competitive advantage, find new growth opportunities, and mitigate risks.

Based on the expertise of 150 analysts, consultants, forecasters and underpinned by a consistent methodology, taxonomy, and platform, Ovum Forecaster provides a unique data set that is easy to access, normalized, and ready to use on day one.

Why Ovum Forecaster

High performance and flexible data delivery• API enables live connection to your data warehouses• Daily updates from our warehouse provide you with the latest data• Our scalable data foundation allows for the easy introduction of new

hot topic forecasts• Access forecasts from any device, anywhere.• Cloud based delivery assures scalability, reliability and security

Unmatched data rigor, depth, and breadth• Integrated, standardized and consolidated views of over 130 forecasts• Extensive historical subscription and KPI data• Coverage for more than 220 territories and all major markets• Converged forecasts for mobile, broadband and TV• Global perspective and local expertise• Single accurate source of forecasts• Both enterprise and consumer forecasts• In depth data for emerging segments – IoT, cloud, 5G, AR/VR, AI, SVOD, etc• Internal data auditing process to maintain accuracy

Rapid and easy access to critical historical data and forecasts• Intuitive Web-based interface• Self-service tools empower users• Easy data interrogation, manipulation and export• Efficient data management• Data visualisation

Forecaster deliversConverged market views of digital services for industry competitors and in different markets

Metrics for digital content against operator performance to better identify interconnection partners

Data on global growth of different network technologies and the financial impact it will have on the market

Insight into how players are growing with forecasts for their market share, KPIs, and revenues

Understanding of where the growth of digital content and OTT delivery is driving broadband and cellular growth and technology investments.

Top-down and bottom-up global views of the digital ecosystem, providing whole-of-market forecasts by geography, service type, and technology, enabling you to:

Better understand your target markets

Identify new market opportunities

Make fact based investment decisions

Identify which new services will generate the highest revenues

Develop the best migration path to digital services

Select the right business partners and acquisition targets

The Forecaster Suite

Forecaster provides a single point of access to the most reliable in-depth historical market data and forecasts with coverage at global, regional, and country levels. It also provides views by technology, company, and other critical metrics, such as market sizing and forecasts for 37 technologies across 35 service types, for more than 220 territories, along with more than 2,500 operator/company profiles.

Ovum Forecaster is complemented by Ovum’s research services, providing both quantitative and qualitative market intelligence

Research Services

Service Provider Markets

Service Provider Technology

Enterprise Services

Enterprise Verticals

Consumer & Entertainment Services

Internet of Things

Information Technology

Data Services

Forecaster - Service Provider Markets

Forecaster - Service Provider Technology

Forecaster - Enterprise Services

Forecaster - Enterprise Verticals

Forecaster - Consumer & Entertainment Services

Forecaster – Internet of Things

Forecaster - IT Markets

Forecaster - Service Provider MarketsThe converging mobile, fixed line, and television markets including 5G, LTE, M2M, DSL, FTTx, fixed voice, SVOD, subscription linear, and OTT.

Forecaster - Service Provider TechnologyCore technologies that enable the delivery of new consumer and enterprise services including NFV, 40G/100G/200G OC, OSS/BSS, DCI, and CDN.

Forecaster – Enterprise ServicesServices enabling the migration by enterprises from onsite ICT to cloud delivery, including VPN, cloud services, workforce optimization, BYOD, and outsourcing.

Forecaster - Enterprise VerticalsICT spending in banking, insurance, payments, government, education, healthcare, telecoms, media, retail and other verticals.

Forecaster - Consumer & Entertainment ServicesDigital consumer services including broadband, TV, OTT video, digital advertising, VR/AR, smart home, and connected devices.

Forecaster - Internet of ThingsIoT related services and technologies including digital assistant and AI capable devices, M2M connections, MNO revenue, LPWA, and smart home services.

Forecaster – IT MarketsThe services and technologies enterprises are using for digital transformation including cloud, software, integration, security and workforce optimization.

Forecaster Market Coverage

Forecaster Service Provider MarketsThe most complete and integrated dataset of forecasts in the market for the converging mobile, fixed voice, broadband, and television markets, enabling you to identify the market segments with the greatest growth potential for your services. Forecasts include cellular including M2M, broadband, TV, OTT video including SVOD, mobile connectivity, fixed voice. Historical data goes back as far as 1981.

Only Forecaster enables an integrated view of key service provider market metrics - revenue, connections, KPIs etc. with the ability to drill down to global and regional trends across service types (mobile, fixed line, and OTT video and TV).

Mobile accessM2M

Mobile broadbandMVNO

SMS/MMS trafficSubscribers and revenue

Service provider KPIsARPUChurn

Market sharePenetration rates

Revenues and CAPEX

TV & Video Free to air

OTT (SVOD, TVOD, EST)Pay TV

TV advertisingTV households

Fixed accessBroadband

TVVoice

OTT Video

M2M Mobile - Data

Fixed Broadband

Pay TV Fixed voice - subscription

Mobile - SMS

Mobile - Voice

Fixed voice - Call

Total-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%31.1% 28.1%

14.7% 15.3%

10.2%6.9%

2.9% 4.5%2.4% 1.2% 1.6%

-3.6% -3.7%

-8.5%-9.9% -9.9%

-11.5%-9.5%-8.4%

11.9%

Growth in telecoms and pay TV service revenues

2016 year-on-year growth 2016-22 CAGR

Global mobile, broadband and pay TV markets will generate $1.58T in 2021

ARPUData SMSNon-SMS dataVoice

CAPEXPer net additionPer subscriberSales ratio

Churn and disconnections

EBITDA

Effective price per minute

Gross additions

MOUIncomingOutgoingTotal

OPEX

RevenueData SMSData non SMSVoice

SAC

SubscriptionsM2MSmartphoneNon smartphonePortable devices

Traffic voice

Unique users

Forecaster Service Provider Markets: Mobile

Cellular IoT connections will grow by 350% over 2016-2021

Historical and five-year forecast data for subscriptions, market share, and penetration for 850 operators, 2,000 networks and 220 territories. Further datasets provide detailed insight into service provider and network KPIs, licenses and spectrum

auctions, ownership and investments. Forecaster covers everything from 2G to 5G and SMS to M2M.

202220212020201920182017

1,000

0

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Global mobile subscriptions forecast by technology, 2017-22 (millions)

5G CDMA GSM LTE W-CDMA Other

Forecaster Service Provider Markets: Fixed LineConstantly updated and accurate subscriber data and five-year forecasts on the fixed multiplay industry worldwide. Includes subscription and KPI data for fixed voice, broadband, and TV for 200+ countries. Includes metrics for 2,850+ operators, carriers and ISPs.

BroadbandARPU per householdCAPEXConnections by speedEBITDA, EBIT, EBTHouseholds; penetrationLinesMarket shareService revenuesSubscriptions

Fixed accessISDN linesPSTN lines

VoiceARPU per householdHousehold penetrationRevenue (service, non-service)Subscriptions

TVARPU per householdCAPEXEBITDAService revenuesSubscriptionsTotal RevenueTraffic voiceUnique users

Global fixed broadband subscriptions forecast by technology, 2017-22 (millions)

DSL Cable FTTx WiMAX LTE 5G Satellite Other

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Forecaster Service Provider Markets: TV & OTT video

Complete multiscreen market sizing and forecasts for traditional TV, OTT video, and broadband. Metrics for up to 161 countries. Each forecast provides a five-year perspective enabling you to compare market potential by country,

technology and channel. Historical TV subscriptions by quarter for 700 operators in 149 markets from year 2000.

Forecaster enables the direct comparison of OTT to traditional TV and provides insight into how OTT services are driving the growth of cellular and broadband.

Pay TV & FTA 4K, UHDAnalog, digitalCable/MMDSDTH, DTT, IPTVDigital homesDual playLicense feesPPV, VODRetail, freeRevenueSubscriptionsTriple play

OTT Video RevenueEST, SVOD, Rental TV, Movies SD, HD, 4K

OTT Video SubscriptionsEST, SVOD, RentalSD, HD, 4KTV, Movies

TV AdvertisingHouseholdsRevenue MultichannelFree to Air

TV Households AnalogDigitalCable, DTH, DTT, IPTVFree to AirPay TV

300,000

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Global pay TV revenues by technology (US$m)

Cable TV revenues IPTV revenues DTH revenues Pay DTT revenues

By 2020 there will be 30m new pay TV subscribers in China and the same again for OTT SVOD

Forecaster Service Provider Markets

Forecaster goes well beyond mobile, fixed line and TV, delivering a broad range of data relevant to digital service providers.

Mobile Roaming Forecast: 2015-20

Communications Provider Revenues & Capex Forecast: 2016-21

VoLTE Connections Forecast: 2016-21

MVNO Forecast: 2016-21

Broadband Bundle Subscription Forecast: 2016-21

Mobile Broadband Subscription Forecast: 2017-22

Mobile Subscription and Revenue Forecast: 2017-22

Total Fixed Broadband Subscription and Revenue Forecast: 2017-22

Smartphone Connections Forecast: 2017-22

Total Fixed Voice Subscription and Revenue Forecast: 2017-22

Mobile Revenue Forecast by Sales Channels: 2016-21

LTE Forecasts by Spectrum: 2016-21

Mobile, Broadband, and Pay-TV Integrated Forecasts: 2017–22

Global Wholesale Market Forecast: 2016-21

OTT Video Forecast: 2016-22

OTT Video Subscription Service Provider Forecast: Americas, 2017–22

OTT Video Subscription Service Provider Forecast: Europe, 2017–22

Central and Eastern Europe: Pay-TV & FTA Forecasts to 2022

Americas: Pay-TV & FTA Forecasts to 2022

SVOD Service Provider Market Share Forecast: Middle East & Africa, 2016-22

Middle East and North Africa: Pay-TV & FTA Forecasts to 2022

Sub-Saharan Africa: Pay-TV & FTA Forecasts to 2022

SVOD Service Provider Market Share Forecast: Asia & Oceania, 2016-22

Asia-Pacific: Pay-TV & FTA Forecasts to 2022

Western Europe: Pay-TV & FTA Forecasts to 2022

Total Cellular Device Forecast: 2016-21

Cellular Machine-to-Machine (M2M) Forecast: 2017-22

Mobile Revenue 2017-22

Fixed Broadband Revenue 2017-22

Fixed Broadband Speed 2017-22

Fixed Broadband Subscriptions 2017-22

Pay TV Operators 2017-22

TV - Pay TV and Multiplay 2017-22

TV - Pay TV and Multiplay KPI 2017-22

TV Advertising 2017-22

Fixed Voice Subscriptions 2017-22

Fixed Voice Revenue 2017-22

Mobile Device Sales 2017-21

Mobile Subscriptions 2017-22

Mobile Subscriptions (M2M only) 2017-22

Mobile Subscriptions (ex M2M) 2017-22

Mobile Subscriptions Billing Type 2017-22

Mobile Unique Users 2017-22

OTT Operator Subscriptions 2017-22

OTT SVOD Subscriptions 2017-22

OTT Revenues 2017-22

Public Service TV 2017-20

Smartphones 2017-22

Tablets 2017-20

TV Devices 2017-20

Forecaster Consumer & Entertainment ServicesA market experiencing tremendous growth driven by social, mobile, video, and big data. Market sizing/forecast for smart home, wearables, digital assistants, VR/AR, mobile devices, and TV devices.

Forecasts include: • Pay TV• Broadband Bundle• Cellular Device• Consumer Broadband• Consumer Fixed Voice• Consumer Mobile • Digital Advertising• Digital Assistant and AI-Capable Devices• Digital Consumer Publishing• TV Advertising• Mobile Handset• Mobile Messaging• Mobile Payments• OTT VoIP • OTT Messaging • OTT Video

• Recorded-Music• Smart Home Devices and Services• SVOD service providers• Tablets• TV Devices: Regular, Smart, Connected, 4K• Video Game • OTT video advertising• VR Content • VR Headsets• Wearables

The combined sales of wearables, VR, smart home, and drones will exceed 1.5 billion units by 2021

Forecaster Enterprise ServicesEnterprises continue to migrate on-site enterprise ICT to managed and cloud delivery. Enterprise market sizing and forecasts include enterprise services such as VPN, cloud services, workforce optimization technologies and managed ICT services forecasts.

Forecasts include: • Corporate-Liable Mobile Connections, Revenue • Employee-Liable Mobile (BYOD) Connections• Enterprise Fixed Broadband Subscription, Revenue• Enterprise Fixed Voice Subscription, Revenue • IP VPN • IT Services Market: Cloud Services• IT Services Markets • Consulting• Outsourcing• Systems Integration• Telco-Managed ICT Services • Unified Communications Services

Forecaster Internet of ThingsThe IoT represents a major opportunity for service providers and vendors to drive B2B and B2B2C industry and services transformation. IoT technologies, integrated with emerging big data tools and applications, are creating significant disruption to processes, customer relationships, and business models. Ovum Forecaster enables you to evaluate IoT market segments’ size and future growth, providing detailed, robust market figures to inform business planning and technology decisions.

Forecasts include: • Digital assistant and AI capable devices• M2M connections• MNO revenue• Smart home services• Wearables

59%CAGR 2016-2020

to $76 billion

Forecaster Service Provider TechnologyDriven by the transition from hardware based systems to virtual, software centric implementations, Service Provider Technology is in a state of transition. These forecasts will enable you to stay abreast of these forthcoming changes and take advantage of the market disruption

Forecasts include: • 40G, 100G, and 200G OC • Carrier Ethernet Equipment Market • Communications Provider Revenues & Capex• Data Center Interconnect• Data Center Interconnect & DCI • Datacom Optical Components • Fixed Broadband Subscription and Revenue • Intra-Data Center Port • LTE by Spectrum

• Media Transformation ICT Services • Mobile Backhaul and Fronthaul • Mobile Subscription and Revenue• Network & IT Vendor Services• OC FTTx • Optical Networks• OSS/BSS Revenue• Radio Access Network• Service Provider Switching & Routing • Wireline Broadband Access Equipment

“Band 3 (1800MHz FDD) is expected to see the largest growth of all the LTE band in terms of addressable market size between 2016 and 2021”

Forecaster Enterprise VerticalsTMT convergence affects different industries in different ways. Along with analyzing markets by technology and country, Ovum tracks TMT historical spending and forecasts by verticals.

Forecasts include: • Global Government Technology Spending• Global Healthcare Technology Spending• Insurance Technology Spending• Utilities Technology Spending• Global Higher Education Technology Spending• Payments Technology Spending

Forecaster IT Markets

Digital transformation is driving enterprises to implement new technologies and update existing technologies: network, infrastructure, applications, and business process. Coverage includes integration, cloud services, security and optimization technologies forecasts.

Forecasts include: • Workforce Optimization

Technologies

• IT Services Market Forecast: Cloud Services

• Software Market Forecast: Integration

• Software Market Forecasts: Integration

• Software Market Forecasts: Security

• Software Market Forecast and Vendor Rankings: Security Software

Ovum Forecasting Approach Ovum believes that forecasts should be prepared as part of a collaborative, integrated process involving both quantitative and qualitative analysis. Our forecasting approach has been developed to optimize the level of inputs from a variety of sources to provide our customers with the most comprehensive forecasts available.

People

A centralized forecasting team

Tools

New internal OLAP-based data warehouse

Process

Ovum’s unique forecasting

methodology

“Over recent years the TMT sector has seen significant change,

driven by both new technologies and changing customer

behavior. As a result, demand for highly detailed market

reporting and forecasting has risen dramatically.

Companies want to know what impact a disruptive technology

will have on their established lines of business, as well which

nascent markets to invest in and which to give a wide berth.”

Gareth SimsResearch Director,

Forecasting and Data Analysis

Ovum Forecasting Approach The Forecasting Team

Working alongside our analysts, Ovum’s forecasting team ensures forecasts are generated with consistency and transparency, using the most appropriate methodologies.

Gareth Sims

Research Director, Forecasting and

Data Analysis

Nikhil Sharma

Data Analyst

Anupkumar Gangadharan

Senior Analyst

Dwaipayan Bose

Data Analyst

Geogy George

Database Product Manager

Krishna Bamezai

Data Analyst

Harry Booth

Senior Forecaster

Mehmet Kemal

Senior Forecaster

Shubham PandeyAnalyst

Manisha KuthariAnalyst

Milena Cooper

Database Product Manager

Upin Dattani

Principal Financial Analyst

Prasad ChouguleData Analyst

Nidhir Maudgalya

Principal Forecaster

Subramanian Venkatraman

Lead Analyst

Hamzah Bakhat

Data Analyst

Richard Jackson

Production Analyst

Bharath Badavathu

Analyst - Telecoms

Divya AdusumilliData Analyst

Sandeep Sukhavasi

Telecoms Analyst

Ovum Forecasting Approach A new data management and analytical platformOvum’s powerful new cloud-based platform cuts the time taken to produce marketintelligence reports, cleans data and taxonomy for multiple forecasts, enables users toquickly find and assemble data queries across the entire Ovum data warehouse, and reduces analysts’ and customers’ workload – freeing more time for innovation.

Key features• All data for the full TMT market in a single platform, across all digital services and

verticals – unprecedented in the industry today• Easy-to-use and highly responsive interface allows you to quickly query the

custom data• Freeform search allows you to surface your filter choices quickly.• Column reordering and freeze capabilities get the data in the format you need• Save your searches and data cuts and return quickly to important views• Aggregation and drill down of all metrics to identify key trends in the market• View data from multiple pivots• Quick access to data methodology and help • Chart results in visual format• Export any selected data

New APIForecaster’s API enables direct

real time connection to the underlying data that powers Forecaster. Integrate Ovum’s

data into your data warehouse in order to combine with other data sources and build custom

dashboards.

Forecaster comes with Ovum’s best in class customer supportWhether you need guidance to navigate the site, information regarding our methodologies or you want to better understand a data trend, Ovum’s support team is here to help.

Our Ask an Analyst service gives you direct contact via telephone, email or face-to-face sessions with our expert analyst team.

Gemma BuntingHead of Client Services and Experience

Karen DyerClient Support Manager

Our new Web app allows seamless interaction with Ovum’s relationship management team.

of our customers rate our Clarify & Connect service as Excellent or

Very Good

96%

“It is very easy to filter and drill down to deeper levels of

granularity… Creating custom queries that can be exported with just that information really helps”

UK-based telecoms company

“So easy to drill into data… it’s Impressive!”

Leading American online retailer

“We are very thankful that Ovum has brought together

forecasts for cellular, broadband, and TV as it has been difficult to

find this data in the past ”

Wall Street investment bank

“It would take me 2 hours to do what you did in 30 seconds.

I have not seen anything else out there that comes close to this”

American enterprise collaboration software vendor

“This will be a great time saver for us – it’s something that people

recognize and say ‘it will help me get my work done’”

US-based education management software vendor

“There is significant power in bringing together fixed, mobile

and media data”

APAC-based telecoms company

Empowering Strategic Decision MakingForecaster is the key to answering the strategic questions facing your organization:

“How do we prioritize the target market segments in terms of revenue potential for us?”

“How will new competitors, regulations, and technologies affect our target market segments?”

“What does the disruption of entire industries by new technology and business models mean for us and our customers?”

Ovum’s customers confidently make those important decisions – benchmarking the competition, evaluating acquisitions, entering new markets, planning sales strategies, launching new go-to-market initiatives – with the advantage of Ovum’s data, research, and consulting.

Ovum customers’ reaction to the new Forecaster

Ovum is uniquely qualified to support your organizationWe provide authoritative data, market analysis and vertical industry expertise to empower your decision-making. We help you profit from new technologies and evolving business models.

We have been guiding our clients to growth for

more than 30 years

We offer more market metrics across TMT than

any other provider

We have an in-depth understanding of leading

edge technologies, vertical and local markets

We serve 18 of the 20 largest CSPs, 6 of the 8

largest tech companies, and the 5 largest investment banks

We provide over 130 5-year forecasts and

the most sophisticated view on ICT spending

available

Our 150 analysts provide a balanced and integrated perspective

across converging TMT markets

Experience Capability Approach

You can also contact us directly at:marketingdepartment@ovum.com

ovum

Learn more about Forecaster at ovum.informa.com/forecaster