1

T.M. MalevaO.V. Sinyavskaya

Is it possible to raise fertility level in Russia?

Results of new empirical studies

“Family in the Stream of Changes: Demographic Challenges to Social Policy”

International conferenceMoscow, November 28-29,

2

How to overcome the shortage of demographic data?

Surveys of households as

a source of demographic, economic and social behavior data

Survey

«Parents and children, men and women in families and society» (Russian GGS)

Part of the Generations & Gender International Program (GGP)

1 respondent = 1 household

Representative of the Russian Federation

More than 2000 variables with info on respondent, his/her partner,

parents, children and household members

Panel

7,880

2004

11,261

2007

11,111

First wave

Financed byRF PF, MPIDR, IISP

Mid 2004

Second wave

Financed byRF PF, UNFPA, Sberbank

Mid 2007

3

Births within the last three years based on the number of children in a family

Number of children in a family

3 years ago

Gave birth within last 3 years

Did not give birth within last 3 years

Total

number percent number percent number percent

0 256 57.8 709 27.9 965 32.3

1 147 33.2 964 37.7 1105 37.0

2 32 7.2 723 28.4 754 25.3

3 3 0.7 123 5.1 133 4.5

4 and more 5 1.1 22 0.9 27 0.9

Total 443 100 2541 100 2984 100

4

Which factors influence fertility?

Fertility within the last three years depending on the type of settlement, percent

70

72

68

30

28

32

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Total

First child

Second or subsequent child

city rural

5

Fertility within the last three years in 5-year age groups of women, percent

5 8

30

48

7

34

31

37

22

11

35

72

14

3 5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total First child Second andsubsequent child

40–44

35–39

30–34

25–29

20–24

below 20

6

Fertility within the last three years based on respondent’s and her partner’s employment status, percent

69

31

91

9

0 20 40 60 80 100

employed

unoccupied

employed

unoccupied

Wom

an's

em

ploy

men

tst

atus

a y

ear

befo

rech

ildbi

rth

Par

tner

's e

mpl

oym

ent

stat

us

7

Educational level of women who gave birth within the last three years, percent

Age-adjusted fertility deviations in groups of women with various levels of educational, times

13 14 12

11 11 11

18 16 21

36 3438

23 26 20

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

total First child Second and subsequent child

Higher, Including incomplete

Completedvocational

Primaryvocational

Secondary

No secondary

-1

0

1

2

3

4

до 20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44

Dev

iatio

n fr

om m

ean

, tim

es

No secondary ed

Secondary

Primary vocational

Completed vocational

Higher

8

Actual number of children born per woman, decile groups of household, per capita incomes

Income groupAverage number of children,

per woman in a group

1 decile 1.7

2 1.6

3 1.3

4 1.3

5 1.1

6 1.1

7 1.1

8 0.9

9 0.9

10 decile 0.8

Total 1.2

9

Reproductive Intentions

Proportion of women intending to have a child depending on the current number of children per family and

type of settlement, percent in a group

All No children With one child

With two and more children

General intentions

urban 30.2 47.0 33.3 9.8

rural 17.2 50.0 27.1 5.8

Intentions for 3 years to come

urban 29.9 56.4 30.4 4.9

rural 18.4 65.7 28.8 4.3

10

Intentions of women to have a child depending on the current number of children in a family, percent

Distribution of women intending to have a child depending on their age and the current number of children per family

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

All women No children One child Two and more children

General intentions, % in a group For 3 years, % in a group

General, % total For 3 years, % total

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

under 20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44

3 years with no children 3 years with one and more children

General with no children General with one and more children

11

Proportion of women intending to have a child depending on the availability of a partner and current number of children, percent per group

Does R has a partner?

All No childrenOne and more

children

generalin 3

yearsgeneral

in 3 years

generalin 3

years

No 23.1 21.6 40.6 45.9 16.1 11.6

Yes, living separately 33.8 37.9 40.5 53.4 26.7 21.4

Yes, living together 25.3 25.0 61.0 72.4 21.2 19.6

Registered marriage 22.6 21.4 68.9 77.3 20.0 18.3

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Relative variation of actual and expected (if overall intentions are realized) number of children

by mother’s age and educational level

Actual number of children Expected number of children

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

All

Primary vocationaland lower

Secondary vocational

Higher education0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

13

Actual and potential number of children per woman of different religiosity

Actual number of children Potential number of children

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44

Woman's age, years

Pot

entia

l num

ber

of c

hild

ren

per

wom

an0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44

Woman's age, years

Act

ual n

umbe

r of

chi

ldre

n pe

r w

oman

Islam

Religious (otherthan islam)

Irreligious

14

Actual and potential average number of children per woman, decile groups

1,2

1,5

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

1 д

ец

ил

ь

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 д

ец

ил

ь 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45Доля женщин,намеренныхиметь детей

Фактическоечисло детей

Средняя пофактическимрождениям

Ожидаемоечисло детей пообщимнамерениям

Средняя поожидаемымрождениям

1,2

1,5

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

1 д

ец

ил

ь

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 д

ец

ил

ь 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45Доля женщин,намеренныхиметь детей

Фактическоечисло детей

Средняя пофактическимрождениям

Ожидаемоечисло детей пообщимнамерениям

Средняя поожидаемымрождениям

Share of womenintended to give birth

Actual number of children

Average actual number of children

Potential number of children

Average potential number of children 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

D e c i l e g r o u p s

(Right scale)

(Left scale)

(Left scale)

(Left scale)

(Left scale)

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Intention to have a child, 2004 and 2007, percent in group

58

19

58

20

36

20

35

21

6

61

8

60

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

no child 1 child and more no child 1 child and more

2004 г. 2007 г.

No inteded to have achild

Intended to have achild later

Intended to have achild in nearest 3years

16

Ideal number of children, percent in group

4

2127

41

61

78

7

56

52

68

17 18

91

137

30

1 1 24 20%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

no child 1 child 2 and morechildren

no child 1 child 2 and morechildren

Want to have a child Don't want to have a child

3 and morechildren

2 children

1 child

no child

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Factors influencing reproductive behavior and reproductive intention

Legend: “+” - relevant factor (regardless of direction) “ –” - statistically insignificant “0” - no relevant data

Factor BirthReproductive

intention

Type of settlement –/+ +

Woman’s age + +

Current number of children + +

Partner + +

Marriage status + +/–

Woman’s status in the labor market –/+ +/–

Partner’s status in the labor market – +

Education + +

Income 0 +

Housing + –

Attitude towards religion – +

Social and psycological factors 0 +

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What is to be done?Lessons for social policy

1. Russia today has the capacity to boost fertility. Assuming all respondents desiring to have children in the future give birth to just one child, fertility may increase from 1.2 to 1.5 children per woman in the next three years.

2. Apart from low income, poor housing may prove to be a barrier to increased fertility (second and further births).

3. Economic fertility-boosting measures are not a cure all. Social factors are of no less importance, even though at times they are unrelated to the growth of economic wellbeing.

4. Family policy geared solely toward officially registered marriages may leave out large populations with a certain fertility potential.

5. Fertility growth unaccompanied by changes in labor relations, the introduction of flexible working schedules for women, development of child-care and educational facilities for children, may result in the fertility potential of well-educated and employed women remaining unfulfilled or a number of women significantly reducing time and effort in the labor market.

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What is to be done?Lessons for social policy

6. Society should be prepared to accommodate the fact that Islamic populations will respond first to social fertility-boosting measures.

7. In order to take action, it is important to be informed. Sociologic research is needed to answer the following questions:

Are the intentions of respondents regarding future births likely to be fulfilled?

Which factors will boost fertility, and what are the barriers to boosting fertility?

Which factors will produce immediate and measurable effects and which will have “delayed” actions?

Will current trends be influenced by measures featured in the 2006 National Program?

And finally, will social and economic factors produce an unequal effect on population behavior today and reproductive intentions for the future?

To be continued basing on the second wave…