Titre présentation – Intervenant/réf. - 28 juin 2014 - p...Titre présentation –...
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Titre présentation – Intervenant/réf. - 28 juin 2014 - p.1
Uranium and Nuclear Market, the horizon post-Fukushima
Isabelle LEBOUCHERSenior Vice President Marketing, AREVA
p.3
Uranium market history: the strong influence of anticipated world nuclear fleet evolution
Large stockpiling (production > requirements) in the 70s was followed by stockpile recycling in the 90s. From 2003 to 2007, expected Nuclear Renaissance induced again strong demand. Similar variations could occur in the future.
Source: data from WNA
62 000 tU/y53 000 tU
100 000 tU/y
About 1.2 MtU will be required
from now to 2030
20 000 tU/y38 000 tU
U demand vs U production
$/lb U3O8
Fukushima
Inst
alle
dnu
clea
rcap
acity
Agenda
Post-Fukushima recent evolution and short-term outlook
Long-term view
Preparing the future
1
2
3
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 4
Shrinking installed fleet Fukushima linked decision
Germany: phase out planned for 2022 Belgium: government set dates for reactor closures (2015-2025) Japan: fleet shut down; nevertheless, safety reviews for restart Switzerland: new energy law draft, new build under question
USA: 5 early shutdowns announcements in 2013-2014
Some new build projects postponed USA: challenging under current electricity market conditions Europe: electricity prices and financing conditions are challenging in some countries
(Bulgaria, Czech Rep,…)
Change in installed nuclear capacity since 2011
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 5
HEUDownblended Highly Enriched Uranium
- from weapons grade uranium to civil fuel (Russia, US)
The recycling source: plutonium (MOX) or reprocessed uranium (ERU)
Sales of strategic / commercial inventories
Tails assays lower: less uranium, more enrichment services
Re-enrichment of depleted uranium
Uranium Supply from Secondary Sources
MOX (Pu) ERU (RepU)
Uranium stockpiles
Underfeeding
Tails re-enrichment
HEU Russia-US agreement terminated in 2013
Some sources are more easy to forecast – e.g. MOX or ERU (based on long term strategic/political decisions)
Other are much more unpredictable – e.g. excess material disposition by governments (DOE, etc…)
About 19 ktU estimated uranium secondary supply in 2013 (WNA)
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 6
2013 Uranium production
2013 U production (tU) and variations vs. 2012 (%) Main countries
9,300(+3%)
4,300(-5%)
4,400(-8%)
6,300(-13%)
22,500(+5%)
Canada
Namibia
Kazakhstan
Australia
Niger
3,100(-9%)
Russia
Source: AREVA analysis based on publicly available data and AREVA estimates
Top 6 countries83 % of overall
1. Kazakhstan 38% 2. Canada 16%3. Australia 10%4. Niger 7%5. Namibia 7%6. Russia 5%
Global uranium production at 59,000 tU in 2013 vs. 59,500tU in 2012, while it had grown +8% in 2012
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 7
ICO
Uranium producers adjusting supply to demand conditions
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 8
Millennium (Cameco)
Canada
US
Willow Creek (U1) drilling halted
NigerImouraren (AREVA)
NamibiaTrekkopje (AREVA)Langer Heinrich Stage 4 (Paladin)
Kayelekera (Paladin)
Malawi
mines expansion (Kazatomprom)
Kazakhstan
Honeymoon (U1)Olympic Dam extension (BHP Billiton)Kintyre (Cameco)Yeelirrie (Cameco)
Australia
Projects delayed Mines “on care and maintenance”
Supply adjustments to adapt to low market prices
Agenda
Post-Fukushima recent evolution and short-term outlook
Long-term view
Preparing the future
1
2
3
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 9
Revised Nuclear Generation Projections
GWe
Upper and Reference scenario for nuclear capacity dropped by 11% and 6%Reactor requirement projections adjusted accordingly
2013 vs 2011 projections of Nuclear generating capacity to 2030(WNA Fuel Market report)
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 10
Current Rate of Construction close to 10 GW/year
5
Source : IAEA website, June 2014 – Retreated considering 1 research reactor in Argentina
1
1
1
1 10
2
12
2
2
2
228
6
5
72 new reactors are currently under construction worldwide
World Nuclear Capacity set to Increase1. Number of reactors commissioned until 2020
Nuclear capacity is projected to increase from ~330 GWe in 2012 to ~430 GWe in 2020 (WNA 2013 reference scenario)
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 12
+ 5
USA
BRAZIL
+1
RUSSIA
+10+4
EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST
+4
+10INDIA
CHINA
+38
JAPAN27 re-started + 2 new
SOUTH KOREA
+6
CHINA
+108
World Nuclear Capacity set to Increase2. Number of reactors commissioned until 2030
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 13
+ 9
USA
BRAZIL
+1
RUSSIA
+28+22
EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST
+17
+24INDIA
JAPAN27 re-started + 4 new
SOUTH KOREA
+12
SOUTH AFRICA
+2
Nuclear capacity is projected to increase from ~330 GWe in 2012 to ~580 GWe in 2030 (WNA 2013 reference scenario)
Uranium supply and demand equilibrium(‘000 tU/yr)
Source : WNA 2013
2020 20252015
Under development
Existing mines
Secondary sources
To be covered by new projects
100
0
80
60
40
20
Demand
Impact on future Uranium demand
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 14
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
25
30
5
20
15
0
10
2013 WNA - Reference scenario2013 WNA - Low scenario
2013 WNA - High scenario
Chinese market growing rapidly
Assumptions : tails assays at 0.22% in WNA model 2013 WNA Reference scenario assumed 58 GW by 2020 and 128 GW by 2030 for China’s nuclear capacity
• China’s uranium demand by 2030 may exceed ~1/4 of the global requirements
• Aggressive uranium supply strategy with 3 main sources: 1. mainland China production 2. market purchases3. overseas production
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 15
China’s Uranium reactors requirements(2013-2030, ktU)
Agenda
Post-Fukushima recent evolution and short-term outlook
Long-term view
Preparing the future
1
2
3
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 16
Utilities are looking for reliable, sustainable suppliers
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 17
An adequate supply in quantity for today’s and tomorrow’s requirements
An adequate supply in quantity for today’s and tomorrow’s requirements
A guaranteed delivery of Uranium in due time
A guaranteed delivery of Uranium in due time
Competitive prices for fuel cycle products and services
Competitive prices for fuel cycle products and services
Respect of commercial commitments even incases of production and delivery disruption
Respect of commercial commitments even incases of production and delivery disruption
Safe & efficient transport with no negative image impact
Safe & efficient transport with no negative image impact
Suppliers certifying respect of environmental, social and governance requirements
Suppliers certifying respect of environmental, social and governance requirements
AREVA: 60-year history of Uranium supply
Others Kazakh Africa North America France
2012
2006- Start of productionof the KATCO mine
1999 - Start of production of the McArthur River mine
1957 - l’Ecarpièremine
1958 –Bessines
mine
1978Cominak
mine
1971Somaïrmine
1981 - Cluff mineand Cigar Lake discovery
1961 – Mounana mine
(*) AREVA accessible share
Historic view of AREVA uranium production (*)
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 18
Preparing the future:AREVA diversified portfolio of mining assets
Production
Exploration and development
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 19
Five Factors Determine Mining Investment Decisions
1
5
3
4
2
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 20
Technical / Project
Economics: ROI, duration of commitments
Environment - Legal / Regulatory
Stakeholders: local government & population
Financing
AREVA investments for the next 40 years will be evaluated using these criteria
AREVA Mining activities: 5,200 people working for you
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 21
IAEA URAM, Vienna – June 2014 – p. 22
Thank you for your attention!